Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #3

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jjleroche said:
I agree Witness 28. My primary theory, as previously posted, relates to revenge via extortion.

IMO, Inland Motor Repair proprietors Michael and Samantha may have been asked to do some illegal automotive work.
IMO Michael and Samantha knocked back the request.

IMO, given that the request would have been made by a person or persons likely involved in organised crime, this definitely would not have been well-received - (not used to knockbacks). Additionally, Michael and Samantha are now aware that that person is a criminal, and may mention it to police.

This scenario may tally with daughter Jess' comment at the press conference regarding her mother - "Mum's a really strong woman and she's far too strong to give up this fight."

IMO the knockback may have resulted in Samantha being abducted for extortion purposes (which may have gone awry) eg Samantha putting up a better than expected fight, or as pure revenge - a message to Michael - who's next?.

My secondary theory is that IMO Samantha may have been involved with someone (Samantha spent Christmas and the annual coastal holiday away from her family. I am aware that she was suffering from Covid, but at that time during the pandemic, isolation period was only five days. IMO it seems a bit odd not spending any time with her kids). I am wondering whether anyone she knew lived at/near Mt Clear.

All just speculation - MOO
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nao said:
Moo...can someone define .. illegal repairs that a body shop would do? I took my auto for body shop repairs recently. But they would not repair it because it's an older vehicle and the insurance claim meant they would make no profit off the repair. So I will look for another body shop when the rainy season is over. I don't want to stand in the rain at bus stop while it is fixed....
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It is a case of repairing cars that perhaps should be statutory write offs because of substantial level of damage, saying they meet specific standards (ie roadworthy when not) thereby allowing them to be on sold to unsuspecting buyer. But also chop-shop type stuff with regards to Vin numbers - supporting stolen car trade and rebirthing. It’s a been going on for decades, but with required paperwork etc it requires establishments holding licenses to approve road worthiness etc to not be following regulations. Hence why traditionally this has been cash work amongst people who know each other and line each others pockets
 
Hestia's Fire said:
I agree with you. If it were business-related, why not target Mick as well? Why just Sam? Or why not target the children and make both of them suffer? It doesn't make sense that someone would stalk her into the forest and kill her because they were angry about something business-related.
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C
Dotta said:
What kind of "things of interest" could have been taken from the Motor repair shop by Police?
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Computers, financial and client records, various motor equipment. Worksheets. A safe. ???
 
www.abc.net.au

Samantha Murphy's disappearance goes to the heart of women's fears about running alone

Women in the missing Ballarat mother's hometown are either running in groups or not at all, and they're not alone in their fears — 90 per cent of women in a national running group say they joined for safety reasons.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au

So sad women can’t even go for a simple run without fearing for their safety. I’m sure Samantha felt safe going for a run as well but sometimes something horrific can happen. Whatever happened to her I just feel so sorry for her and her family and it’s so sad women have to take precautions because horrific things keep happening to women who only want to go for a run.
 
Theory. What if someone knew there was a lot of cash in the safe and knew the family well. Knew Sam's running plans that day, waited for her. Then at gunpoint took her to the workshop to open the safe. Got the money and took Sam somewhere and disposed of her. MOO
 
Police suspect “more parties” – meaning more than one person – are likely to be involved in Ms Murphy’s disappearance and have cast a wide net in their search.

As part of their probe, A Current Affair reported on Friday night that a local man with a “long rap sheet” has been spoken to by detectives. The man is understood to have provided an alibi for the day Ms Murphy went missing, and there is nothing to suggest he had anything to do with her disappearance.

“Everyone in relation to Samantha is a person of interest in our investigation. We are speaking to everyone that was in her life … So that would include family, friends and work colleagues,” Superintendent Hatt said.

“We have a number of people that we are speaking to and I can say the family have been absolutely fantastic in co-operating with police.

“At this stage [Mr Murphy] is not [a suspect]. Everyone in relation to Samantha is a person of interest. In our investigation we are speaking to everyone that was in her life.”
 
BreakingNews said:
Theory. What if someone knew there was a lot of cash in the safe and knew the family well. Knew Sam's running plans that day, waited for her. Then at gunpoint took her to the workshop to open the safe. Got the money and took Sam somewhere and disposed of her. MOO
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Cctv in the shop?
Outside the shop?
Along the roads leading to the shop?
 
Dotta said:
Cctv in the shop?
Outside the shop?
Along the roads leading to the shop?
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JMO but surely most people use cards to pay large sums these days such as for repairs? Only criminals/dealers using cash? But maybe that’s how they knew there would be large sums of cash (assuming there is a safe at the shop).
 
LollyPop said:
JMO but surely most people use cards to pay large sums these days such as for repairs? Only criminals/dealers using cash? But maybe that’s how they knew there would be large sums of cash (assuming there is a safe at the shop).
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I guess this safe (if it exists) is secured to its teeth ;)
Cameras, alarms and what not.

And Police surely checked the place thoroughly viewing all kinds of cctv.

JMO
 
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Investig8r said:

“A convicted sex offender who has spent time in jail has been interviewed by detectives investigating the disappearance of Ballarat woman Samantha Murphy, a new report has suggested.”
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I feel sure that the police have established the whereabouts (as best as they can) of all the known sex offenders in the area.

imo
 
Toowong(s) said:
Yes this is what I’m thinking it makes the job of convicting the known perp much more difficult not only do the police need more evidence against the perp, its also hard to rule out other plausible scenarios as there would be records of family in the forest at the same time searching for their missing loved one.


I’m trying to think why police would say this, when they also seem to be saying fairly clearly that they are investigating known crims :

Superintendent Hatt said questions over the movements of those within the family home in the period Ms Murphy was on that run were difficult to answer.

'There's a lot of movements to and from the house during the day and again we're very, very confident we have tracked all of those movements and we are following up on everything,' he said.

From the DM:

www.dailymail.co.uk

Sam Murphy's husband person of interest along with family and friends

Police are speaking to everyone in Samantha Murphy's life as part of the investigation into her disappearance, including family, friends and work colleagues - and believe it is unlikely that she is alive.
www.dailymail.co.uk
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What makes you think police are targeting known criminals? I understood from the interview that everyone known to SM is a POI ATM.i didn't pick up they were leaning towards known criminals. Have I missed something?
 
Is this a normal occurrence in Austrailia that people just set autos and in this case another panel business on fire?

The fire linked below that happened today was about an hour drive away from Ballerat. Is there anywhere to find owners of businesses there? Just wondering if it would have any links to SM's family's panel business.

www.9news.com.au

CCTV captures moment factory fire turned deadly in Melbourne

www.9news.com.au www.9news.com.au
 
LollyPop said:
JMO but surely most people use cards to pay large sums these days such as for repairs? Only criminals/dealers using cash? But maybe that’s how they knew there would be large sums of cash (assuming there is a safe at the shop).
Click to expand...
I'm no criminal, no record at all. And I pay cash for majority of things even large purchases purely as I want to keep cash alive, not fair on kids who like to have little lemon stalls etc
 
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