Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #6

[HoneyBunOne]

Please can someone clarify how everyone feels it happened near boak rd?? Also been thinking what evidence police may have that fits . IMO could it be her dna is in the back of his Ute?

I believe this area around Boak Rd and Recreation Rd was where the 2nd, very targeted area of searching occured. I'm guessing it's the 7km turn around point of Samantha's run. IMHO, I think the catastrophic event took place along one of those roads. At around 8am on a Sunday, I image they'd be very quiet. No farms around, no CCTV, no witnesses and lots of bushland coverage.

 

[SouthAussie]

Please can someone clarify how everyone feels it happened near boak rd??

I've been thinking on this quite a bit, since I learned that the police wanted CCTV from Elsworth and adjacent streets, a gateway to the forest.
Why do they want the CCTV from there when indications seem to be that Sam was on foot until around 8ish? She would have been much further along on the trails by then.

I am thinking that maybe there was an after-party, when The Deck closed, and when he left that after-party in the morning he drove his 4WD along the "back route" through the forest to avoid booze/drug buses. And encountered Sam.

A route something like this (I used the walking variation so I could pick up the forest trails that his 4WD should easily have been able to handle). Where he could have ended up on Boak Road on his way home (to his parents place).



Google maps

 

[Awakening]

How did they have a 24/7 tail on him for 2 weeks without quite few knowing. Also just a curiosity in a small town where everyone is on edge how do police watch someone unnoticed? Or is my image of unmarked surveillance vans parked in the street severely outdated ?

I would not describe Ballarat as a small town. It’s a large regional city.

You have Melbourne, then Geelong, then Ballarat.

It’s a mix of built up areas, suburbia, reserves, national parks, farms, bushland with a variety in the density of vegetation from mild to severe.

Where SM ran you can be deep in a forest but suburbs and major roads are meters away.

Population 117,000.

Comparison, my council area which is near the beach and considered outer suburbs has population of 160000.

Aside from being near a beach it’s a bit similar in that we have suburbs, industrial area, farms, acreages, national parks with varying degrees of vegetation.

I’m attaching photos of Ballarat to show how diverse it is. Some my own some I got off google.

 

[nhmemorymaker]

I don't know what evidence the police had prior to the accused being charged, but it wouldn't have been from 4WD or places he lived ( ie DNA ) , as they would have needed a warrant to search it & that surely would have tipped PS off IMO

It must be from his phone or CCTV IMO or from a witness/s IMO

Maybe his girlfriend had been co-operating with police or his parents for the 2 weeks prior to his arrest?

Whatever they have , it must be enough to charge him with murder & must be strong evidence IMO

But that is what keeps nagging at me..." Two weeks prior to his arrest". For sooooo long they said they had NOTHING. NOTHING.

WHAT actually happened only two weeks ago.

The videos of the alcohol / drug videos were available...WHEN????

 

[sm1980]

I can’t tell you anything about Boak Road but I think they are very likely to find her DNA in the back of the accused’s Ute. If the perp didn’t move the body with a vehicle from where she was first attacked I think they would have found her by now. Everything I have read leads me to believe she was put in a vehicle and taken away from the park or at least taken from the immediate area where the accused originally met up with her.
All IMHO

I live on the edge of the Canadian Forrest, about 30sec from the accused parents house. While I don't have any direct information / knowledge of anyone inbolved, I do have a fair bit of knowledge about the boak road area and the site LE were searching a few weeks back. I actually rode my bike with the dog past through the search site around lunchtime on the day SM went missing. A sobering thought
Happy to comment on specifics if it helps.
One thing that should be noted is thar boak road is not a shortcut at all, while it can be driven, it's very rutted in places and has large potholes. Make speed would be 20-30 km/hr in places.
Going from Mt Clear to Scotsburn via that route would take 2x longer than via recreation Rd / boundary road. If the search site on boak road is where it all happened, it was not by chance during a shortcut (IMO)
Something else to note, there has been a significant problem with rubbish dumping in the area for the past 12mths. To the point where parks Vic / LGov have placed trail cameras throughout the area in order to catch dumpers. I'd put good money that they caught some footage (being placed to do exactly that, catch numberplates / car descriptions)

 

[HoneyBunOne]

I've been thinking on this quite a bit, since I learned that the police wanted CCTV from Elsworth and adjacent streets, a gateway to the forest.
Why do they want the CCTV from there when indications seem to be that Sam was on foot until around 8ish? She would have been much further along on the trails by then.

I am thinking that maybe there was an after-party, when The Deck closed, and when he left that after-party in the morning he drove his 4WD along the "back route" through the forest to avoid booze/drug buses. And encountered Sam.

A route something like this (I used the walking variation so I could pick up the forest trails that his 4WD should easily have been able to handle). Where he could have ended up on Boak Road on his way home (to his parents place).

View attachment 489753

Google maps

I believe this new area of interest is where they think the alleged drove his vehicle afterwards. I would guess it's where they feel he may have disposed of her body.

 

[HoneyBunOne]

I live on the edge of the Canadian Forrest, about 30sec from the accused parents house. While I don't have any direct information / knowledge of anyone inbolved, I do have a fair bit of knowledge about the boak road area and the site LE were searching a few weeks back. I actually rode my bike with the dog past through the search site around lunchtime on the day SM went missing. A sobering thought
Happy to comment on specifics if it helps.
One thing that should be noted is thar boak road is not a shortcut at all, while it can be driven, it's very rutted in places and has large potholes. Make speed would be 20-30 km/hr in places.
Going from Mt Clear to Scotsburn via that route would take 2x longer than via recreation Rd / boundary road. If the search site on boak road is where it all happened, it was not by chance during a shortcut (IMO)
Something else to note, there has been a significant problem with rubbish dumping in the area for the past 12mths. To the point where parks Vic / LGov have placed trail cameras throughout the area in order to catch dumpers. I'd put good money that they caught some footage (being placed to do exactly that, catch numberplates / car descriptions)

The mention of trail cameras in this area is very interesting. Looking at google maps street view, I would not have thought there'd be anything like that in the area. I wonder how long it would take police to get access to that footage and how long it is kept?

 

[Awakening]

But that is what keeps nagging at me..." Two weeks prior to his arrest". For sooooo long they said they had NOTHING. NOTHING.

WHAT actually happened only two weeks ago.

The videos of the alcohol / drug videos were available...WHEN????

IMO, I doubt they had nothing.

My best guess is they had him as a suspect early on but needed more evidence in order to get him placed under surveillance.

Other more knowledgeable members might know the process in Victoria to give police the power to put someone under surveillance but I’m guessing they need to meet a certain threshold.

 

[sm1980]

The mention of trail cameras in this area is very interesting. Looking at google maps street view, I would not have thought there'd be anything like that in the area. I wonder how long it would take police to get access to that footage and how long it is kept?

they're pretty low tech. simply strapped to a tree and motion detection recording to an SD card. a sizable sd card could store for months (potentially 6+) some have a solar panel for battery topup. batteries could conceivably last that period too.
unlikely that they'd require any special equipment or knowledge to access. knowing where they are is the key.
Rubbish dumping is in eppic proporportions up there. at least once a week there is a new dump of crap from some cretin.

 

[SouthAussie]

Many threads ago, IIRC a Websleuther posted that they had known the alleged murderer throughout their schooldays, and certainly didn't have positive comments to make about him - quite the reverse.

IMO, perceptions of this person may depend on how well they knew him. During my schooldays, the sports stars were huge heroes (particularly if they belonged to one's "house") - worshipped from afar. Everyone knew who they were, but not all that many interacted with them on a daily basis.

Anyway, I'm searching for that post now, but if the poster, or anyone else can point me in the right direction that'd be great! TIA

I guess it is what view a person sees. The person who made the comment about "he was popular" is the older brother of one of the accused's high school friends. The accused would be at his house spending time with his friend.

 

[Choices]

I think that is the kind of story that a murderer might tell, to try to get off, but I wouldn't believe them.

Like the story a guy told of how his girlfriend hurt herself hiking and begged him to put her out of her misery, and so, altho he really minded doing it, he was such a good guy he strangled her to death, to save her from her intense pain...



JMO

That's possible to try that - despite what police apparently have that made them charge him - but seems like an improbable defence. My reply however started from a baseline of not comprehending why an  ordinary person accidentally hitting someone then switches to actively murdering them ("finishing them off"). Maybe my mistake was being nonchalant about who one might potentially run into in the course of a day (again, no pun intended).
Good point with that example you gave, I think. Though in a stranger scenario, I personally find it harder to believe.

 

[nightpaw]

I would not describe Ballarat as a small town. It’s a large regional city.

You have Melbourne, then Geelong, then Ballarat.

It’s a mix of built up areas, suburbia, reserves, national parks, farms, bushland with a variety in the density of vegetation from mild to severe.

Where SM ran you can be deep in a forest but suburbs and major roads are meters away.

Population 117,000.

Comparison, my council area which is near the beach and considered outer suburbs has population of 160000.

Aside from being near a beach it’s a bit similar in that we have suburbs, industrial area, farms, acreages, national parks with varying degrees of vegetation.

I’m attaching photos of Ballarat to show how diverse it is. Some my own some I got off google.

Thanks for the info and great pics, I was more referring to small in the way that in most news reports people are describing Ballarat as a small tight knit community where most people know each other and such.

 

[Awakening]

Some might be interested in the health data of Apple Watches so I’ve taken some screenshots of mine.

My watch is about 4 years old. I’m in my late 40s. I haven’t been actively using it lately.

I don’t remember setting this up, I think it will mostly be default settings with the occasional opt in or opt out and I’ve ticked yes.

It’s very accurate according to the medical professionals I have spoken to.

It measures heart rate, heart anomalies, ecg, atrial fibrillation, blood oxygen levels, blood pressure (although this one requires you to hold your finger on the watch dial to get a reading), sleep patterns, balance, strides, gait and so on.

It also alerts me to loud sounds. Anything over 80db and I get an alert that continued sounds at this level risks damage to my hearing.

Makes me wonder if SM’s watch detected any loud sounds like arguing, screaming, car tyres screeching etc.

I know others from my gym who set their watch up to do a lot more.

Once I furiously bashed on my dryer and my watch buzzed and said it was calling emergency services in 10 seconds. I had to press a few things in order to stop this.

 

[Cartie]

A guy I knew in high school was scouted at 17 years old for a SA major club, he played in their minor league for a while, didn't make it into their top team, there is a lot of talent being lined up

This is totally different but gives you in idea of the sporting world and the pressure children can be under.

My granddaughter has been scouted for a well known football team in the UK. She is 9 years old

 

[Awakening]

Thanks for the info and great pics, I was more referring to small in the way that in most news reports people are describing Ballarat as a small tight knit community where most people know each other and such.

Yes, sorry I meant to put on my post that I wasn’t singling you out.

I thought that’s what you meant but seeing “small town” prompted me to post photos for others who are not familiar with Ballarat.

I included in my post about my own area being similar in size and diversity of suburbs meets bush.

But yes, also similar in that it still has some aspects of a small town. I certainly don’t know all 160000 people but if I didn’t know someone who lived here, I reckon it would take me about 15 minutes to get the low down on them!

So I think you are right in that Ballarat would still have that 2 degrees of separation element.

 

[Dotta]

Some might be interested in the health data of Apple Watches so I’ve taken some screenshots of mine.

My watch is about 4 years old. I’m in my late 40s. I haven’t been actively using it lately.

I don’t remember setting this up, I think it will mostly be default settings with the occasional opt in or opt out and I’ve ticked yes.

It’s very accurate according to the medical professionals I have spoken to.

It measures heart rate, heart anomalies, ecg, atrial fibrillation, blood oxygen levels, blood pressure (although this one requires you to hold your finger on the watch dial to get a reading), sleep patterns, balance, strides, gait and so on.

It also alerts me to loud sounds. Anything over 80db and I get an alert that continued sounds at this level risks damage to my hearing.

Makes me wonder if SM’s watch detected any loud sounds like arguing, screaming, car tyres screeching etc.

I know others from my gym who set their watch up to do a lot more.

Once I furiously bashed on my dryer and my watch buzzed and said it was calling emergency services in 10 seconds. I had to press a few things in order to stop this.

"Once I furiously bashed on my dryer and my watch buzzed and said it was calling emergency services in 10 seconds. I had to press a few things in order to stop this."

Wow!
It seems your watch
"keeps you in line"

 

[Awakening]

I’m really not sure that AFL has much impact on this case, but time will tell.

Reason being is it’s extremely common in regional areas for boys to play footy and girls to play netball.

Of course both genders can play either sports or other sports, but footy and netball is very popular in areas like Ballarat.

I don’t think his family would be particularly wealthy or privileged.

MOO, but Dad only played a few games of AFL. By all accounts they have an average suburban home, Dad has a trade, mum a teacher. Seems a pretty typical Australian family to me.

 

[fauhjdsh]

Police are being declarative that this was a purposeful act, not an accident. Further, they narrowed down to a suspect that on-face-value doesn't look like someone you would immediately suspect of the purposeful murder of a stranger....Unless There has to be a reason they identified him that is more than just phone data- because there should have been dozens upon dozens of other phones in that area. To me this means something about him stood right out and is known to the police, perhaps he has a closed/sealed record of some sort.

One of the first things LE does when someone is missing is locate and question people in the area with a certain type of criminal history- perhaps this person has one of those histories we have not been able to see yet.

Reminds me of Pawel Relowicz who murdered Libby squire in the UK. Had an absolutely saintlike innocent baby face (and young wife and child) but a deep sexual perversion that you would never had guessed -but the police knew about.

 

[Awakening]

"Once I furiously bashed on my dryer and my watch buzzed and said it was calling emergency services in 10 seconds. I had to press a few things in order to stop this."

Wow!
It seems your watch
"keeps you in line"

I promise you that dryer deserved it!

I still have it. Started playing up 12 months after purchase and it’s a dud.

But the sheer panic I felt trying to switch off my watch from calling 000 means I have not harmed the dryer since!

 

[fauhjdsh]

I'm not saying that LE only had one line of inquiry... I'm well aware they don't release everything to the public and would've been following other avenues from the beginning. For weeks they were only seeking footage after 7:00AM even after they stated it looks suspicious. I never said they thought she was lost in the bush for weeks.

What I was trying to say is that I hope LE was compiling this CCTV evidence early on and ALSO collecting footage before 7:00AM. As I said I don't know how long CCTV is stored, so I'm hoping nothing was lost outside of these hours they listed for the public to provide. Hypothetically, who can be sure that 'John Smith' didn't override his Saturday or Monday CCTV footage because his SD card was full and police weren't interested in it at the time?

Would be good to see footage from the last few weeks to see how regular he was in the area and his route in/out.