Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #3

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Last night I lay awake trying to think through Samantha's disappearance logically. I concluded that there are 4 possibilities:
Foul play
Accident/misadventure
Deliberate disappearance ( unlikely, but
possible)
Suicide (also unlikely but possible)
 
This case is bewildering. If all the paths she could have walked/ran have been searched and she is not there, you would think maybe she was taken away from the scene. Is there any car access from the trails. Maybe LE are checking cctv and traffic cams in the areas around the trail. This would take time if they had to look into all that. Its not going to show her inside a car unless its a clear shot.
 
Last night I lay awake trying to think through Samantha's disappearance logically. I concluded that there are 4 possibilities:
Foul play
Accident/misadventure
Deliberate disappearance ( unlikely, but
possible)
Suicide (also unlikely but possible)

May have started off as an accident which was then covered up, which fits the foul play group.
 
We haven't been shown the rest of the CCTV from her house, just some snip bits in her yard before she went missing. There would be camera/s at the front leading to their front gate, but none of this has been published
Exactly. This is where I get stuck when looking at what might have happened next. Police don't know which way she went, so does that mean no one saw her go out the gate? Are there other exists from the property?
 
Exactly. This is where I get stuck when looking at what might have happened next. Police don't know which way she went, so does that mean no one saw her go out the gate? Are there other exists from the property?
Seems like the CCTV saw her go out the gate. Guessing they can't release the whole video because it's quite a distinctive street, for privacy issues.
 
Last night I lay awake trying to think through Samantha's disappearance logically. I concluded that there are 4 possibilities:
Foul play
Accident/misadventure
Deliberate disappearance ( unlikely, but
possible)
Suicide (also unlikely but possible)
I'm compiling a rather distressing list of (similar?) cold cases/ missing persons in the area over decades. I think it must be hard for LE and volunteers out there. It's not looking good.
 
New Article … but it appears to have some discrepancies ???

Samantha Murphy's husband Mick speaks out after police were seen visiting the family home​

  • Husband issues message to Australia
  • Comes after police visited family home
The heartbroken husband of missing mum-of-three Samantha Murphy has spoken out two weeks after his wife's disappearance.

Ms Murphy, 51, left her home off Eureka Street in East Ballarat, north-west of Melbourne, to go for a run in Woowookarung Regional Park just after 7am on February 4 and has not been seen since.

On Monday, her husband Mick Murphy issued a message to Australia.

'We want Sam home please,' he told 7News.

Mr Murphy told the outlet his family are 'doing the best we can under the circumstances'.


The DM are reporting this as occurring today, Monday, yet Seven News reported this information last night with the same wording …..

IMO
 
Exactly. This is where I get stuck when looking at what might have happened next. Police don't know which way she went, so does that mean no one saw her go out the gate? Are there other exists from the property?
Assuming she left the main entrance from her property … turn right ( south) to reach Eureka st
The less popular thought is she may have turned left ( north ) to access the track through the bollards ( that prevent vehicular traffic ) that will take you through to Elford St , where if you turn left ( west ) this will wind around back down to Eureka st .
There you could access the Canadian forest by turning left ( east ) to enter on Cathie st , or turn right ( west ) and enter on Long St .
We have been told although she regularly ran in the forest she did vary her actual routes .
 
Murphy’s uncle and aunt have since speculated that the only explanation for her disappearance is foul play, fearing she was abducted by a deranged stalker.

“It’s just like she’s gone off the face of the earth. There’s nothing,” aunt Janice Robson told the Daily Mail.

You’d think the police dogs would have been able to pick up her scent. They should have been able to pick up where she ran into that forest.”
Crews scoured dense bushland in the Canadian State Forest for missing woman Samantha Murphy.

That’s the thing that astounds me….did the dogs detect her anywhere outside of her property ?
If they had a scent, and it suddenly stopped, to me that would indicate she then got into a vehicle .
Were there signs of a struggle at that spot ?
Maybe she accepted a lift with someone she knew - many unsuspecting people have found themselves in the company of or falling foul of people who they never suspected as being ‘dangerous’.
 
I hope the aunt and uncle have been given permission by the family to speak out.
Some of their comments weren’t very circumspect, ie saying Samantha always wanted to be famous.
IMG_5612.jpeg
Mm, I couldn’t help but wonder if the journalists had rung every relative in the book until they found one who was rather, shall we say, unfiltered.
 
would there have been other runners out in that forest park last Sunday?
are there roads that run through it that could have a vehicle or no vehicles allowed? just seems that if she had been attacked by a deranged person, there would have been some evidence left behind or the person had to cleanly transport or hide or bury her without leaving a trace of scent or disturbed earth which is not that easy, IMO.
 
That’s the thing that astounds me….did the dogs detect her anywhere outside of her property ?
If they had a scent, and it suddenly stopped, to me that would indicate she then got into a vehicle .
Were there signs of a struggle at that spot ?
Maybe she accepted a lift with someone she knew - many unsuspecting people have found themselves in the company of or falling foul of people who they never suspected as being ‘dangerous’.
As I said, there might be an issue on how the dogs pick up her scents for the day she went missing in terms of distinguishing the scents to previous days she went running in the same direction.

Would the scent just stop at the spot of an incident when she ran past that same spot the previous day?
 
if she got into a vehicle at the end of the driveway, it would have to be someone she really wanted to spend time with, a potentially planned meet up, she had dressed for and planned to go for her daily run so wouldnt get into a car otherwise
 
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