Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #3

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About the mine shafts...

"Could you have an old gold mine under your backyard? In this Victorian city, it's possible.​


Earlier this month small sinkholes emerged in the Ballarat neighbourhood of Black Hill,
an area dappled with historic goldmines and landfills.

Both geotechnical engineers and historians say the shafts hark back to the days of the gold rush in the 1850s.

And in modern times, sinkholes have appeared over the decades on and alongside roads,
in parks,
and even underneath private properties, because of them.

Geologists say it's nearly impossible to know the precise location of every single shaft or mine as record-keeping has not always been thorough."

1708379906854.png

This sinkhole emerged in Ballarat's Victoria Park in October 2022.
It has since been filled.
(Supplied: Ballarat City Council)

www.abc.net.au

As sinkholes appear in Ballarat, experts warn of unmapped gold rush shafts hidden from detection

After prolonged wet weather, sinkholes are appearing in Ballarat. And with no good mining records from the historic 1850s gold rush, there's no way of knowing where the next one will open up.
www.abc.net.au www.abc.net.au
 
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ScottToorak said:
Do you think he is talking to kidnappers?
Click to expand...
Yes or extortionists saying they have Samantha. IMO.

Mods I hope this post is OK as per TOS as it does refer to an aspect of Crash Repair Businesses, but I'm not sleuthing the family - the opposite really.
Anyway, or what it's worth - my current theory:

When I heard Samantha and Mick's daughter Jess speaking at the press conference a few days ago, she commented:
"she's a really strong woman - far too determined to give up this fight". "This fight" - something which may have been discussed, and Samantha has been determined that they should stand their ground?)

I've given some thought to various possibilities - self-harm, running away to start a new life, random attack, stalker attack, snakebite, hit-and-run - I've ruled each of these possibilities out for various reasons.
I don''t believe Mick was involved, for a number of reasons (which I won't elaborate on now, as I have to dash out shortly, but can post my thoughts on that aspect later if anyone is interested.

There aren't many motives left, but I think extortion is a realistic possibility, and could fit with the comment which Jess made.
Samantha and Mick's business, Inland Motor Body Works is IMO a "clean" crash repair business. (ie Not involved in any sort of illegal activity which is sometimes associated with crash repair businesses.
All the major auto insurers support them (as per the business's website. IMO at least some insurers would not be associated with them if there was the slightest whiff of dodgy stuff occurring in the business.

My extortion/revenge theory is that a person, or persons, may have requested that Mick/the business undertake various types of illegal crash repair-related work for them. In effect, "an offer too good to refuse."

IIMO they would have refused such a request. IMO Samantha and Mick would pride themselves on running an honest and highly-regarded operation.)

The sort of person who makes such a request is not someone to be messed with. If this scenario DID occur, I can imagine that revenge is something which such a person would be keen to extract (along with $$$ possibly).

(Not only would the knock-back have been perceived as offensive, IMO there's now another problem. Mick and Samantha now know that that person is a criminal - they may talk. Extortionists IMO would avoid eliminating the person who delivered the refusal of the offer (Mick I'm guessing) - they would seek to extract revenge by doing harm to Mick's family - his greatest vulnerability. "Disappearing" Samantha may seem to such a creature to be a good disincentive to Mick and/or other family members if they were considering informing police.
Hence how to actually "get" Samantha would be carefully considered. Some sort of ploy to get her into a vehicle - then a gun with a silencer - done. They would have been careful to check locations of CCTV's etc
Wouldn't surprise me if Michael were set up to take the rap. Maybe use of a vehicle from the business?
As I've posted previously, if someone pulled up and said something to Samantha like "I've just run over a dog - is it yours?" IMO she wouldn't hesitate to come over.

MOO a possibility.
 
jjleroche said:
Yes or extortionists saying they have Samantha. IMO.

Mods I hope this post is OK as per TOS as it does refer to an aspect of Crash Repair Businesses, but I'm not sleuthing the family - the opposite really.
Anyway, or what it's worth - my current theory:

When I heard Samantha and Mick's daughter Jess speaking at the press conference a few days ago, she commented:
"she's a really strong woman - far too determined to give up this fight". "This fight" - something which may have been discussed, and Samantha has been determined that they should stand their ground?)

I've given some thought to various possibilities - self-harm, running away to start a new life, random attack, stalker attack, snakebite, hit-and-run - I've ruled each of these possibilities out for various reasons.
I don''t believe Mick was involved, for a number of reasons (which I won't elaborate on now, as I have to dash out shortly, but can post my thoughts on that aspect later if anyone is interested.

There aren't many motives left, but I think extortion is a realistic possibility, and could fit with the comment which Jess made.
Samantha and Mick's business, Inland Motor Body Works is IMO a "clean" crash repair business. (ie Not involved in any sort of illegal activity which is sometimes associated with crash repair businesses.
All the major auto insurers support them (as per the business's website. IMO at least some insurers would not be associated with them if there was the slightest whiff of dodgy stuff occurring in the business.

My extortion/revenge theory is that a person, or persons, may have requested that Mick/the business undertake various types of illegal crash repair-related work for them. In effect, "an offer too good to refuse."

IIMO they would have refused such a request. IMO Samantha and Mick would pride themselves on running an honest and highly-regarded operation.)

The sort of person who makes such a request is not someone to be messed with. If this scenario DID occur, I can imagine that revenge is something which such a person would be keen to extract (along with $$$ possibly).

(Not only would the knock-back have been perceived as offensive, IMO there's now another problem. Mick and Samantha now know that that person is a criminal - they may talk. Extortionists IMO would avoid eliminating the person who delivered the refusal of the offer (Mick I'm guessing) - they would seek to extract revenge by doing harm to Mick's family - his greatest vulnerability. "Disappearing" Samantha may seem to such a creature to be a good disincentive to Mick and/or other family members if they were considering informing police.
Hence how to actually "get" Samantha would be carefully considered. Some sort of ploy to get her into a vehicle - then a gun with a silencer - done. They would have been careful to check locations of CCTV's etc
Wouldn't surprise me if Michael were set up to take the rap. Maybe use of a vehicle from the business?
As I've posted previously, if someone pulled up and said something to Samantha like "I've just run over a dog - is it yours?" IMO she wouldn't hesitate to come over.

MOO a possibility.
Click to expand...
Great post.

When you have time later on, I would like to also hear your explanations why you think the husband cannot be involved in her disappearance.
 
I wonder on the exact timing of Samantha being reported missing on the Sunday morning.

It has been alleged that MM reported her missing at around 11am. I am curious how many calls were made in an attempt to talk to her prior to 11am if she was expected back at 9am? How many calls were there to Samantha's mobile phone and at what times were the calls made (was her phone turned on and ringing with no answer or was there no reception?) How many calls were made to friends that Samantha was suppose to be meeting that morning prior to calling Police to see if anyone had heard from her?

If my wife was missing I would not stop calling her and I would also then search for her immediately either by vehicle and or foot. I am sure this was done by MM otherwise it would be "suspicious".

I think most husbands would want to have a rough idea of where the wife was going and how long she was going to be. I would have the "Find My" app installed and be sharing with family members in the event of an emergency event like this.

If there was no mobile phone reception where Sam was going then why take the phone? The Apple watch would give you the time and all of the exercise data that you need.

Samantha's phone seems to be the KEY piece of evidence IMO.
 
jjleroche said:
Yes or extortionists saying they have Samantha. IMO.

Mods I hope this post is OK as per TOS as it does refer to an aspect of Crash Repair Businesses, but I'm not sleuthing the family - the opposite really.
Anyway, or what it's worth - my current theory:

When I heard Samantha and Mick's daughter Jess speaking at the press conference a few days ago, she commented:
"she's a really strong woman - far too determined to give up this fight". "This fight" - something which may have been discussed, and Samantha has been determined that they should stand their ground?)

I've given some thought to various possibilities - self-harm, running away to start a new life, random attack, stalker attack, snakebite, hit-and-run - I've ruled each of these possibilities out for various reasons.
I don''t believe Mick was involved, for a number of reasons (which I won't elaborate on now, as I have to dash out shortly, but can post my thoughts on that aspect later if anyone is interested.

There aren't many motives left, but I think extortion is a realistic possibility, and could fit with the comment which Jess made.
Samantha and Mick's business, Inland Motor Body Works is IMO a "clean" crash repair business. (ie Not involved in any sort of illegal activity which is sometimes associated with crash repair businesses.
All the major auto insurers support them (as per the business's website. IMO at least some insurers would not be associated with them if there was the slightest whiff of dodgy stuff occurring in the business.

My extortion/revenge theory is that a person, or persons, may have requested that Mick/the business undertake various types of illegal crash repair-related work for them. In effect, "an offer too good to refuse."

IIMO they would have refused such a request. IMO Samantha and Mick would pride themselves on running an honest and highly-regarded operation.)

The sort of person who makes such a request is not someone to be messed with. If this scenario DID occur, I can imagine that revenge is something which such a person would be keen to extract (along with $$$ possibly).

(Not only would the knock-back have been perceived as offensive, IMO there's now another problem. Mick and Samantha now know that that person is a criminal - they may talk. Extortionists IMO would avoid eliminating the person who delivered the refusal of the offer (Mick I'm guessing) - they would seek to extract revenge by doing harm to Mick's family - his greatest vulnerability. "Disappearing" Samantha may seem to such a creature to be a good disincentive to Mick and/or other family members if they were considering informing police.
Hence how to actually "get" Samantha would be carefully considered. Some sort of ploy to get her into a vehicle - then a gun with a silencer - done. They would have been careful to check locations of CCTV's etc
Wouldn't surprise me if Michael were set up to take the rap. Maybe use of a vehicle from the business?
As I've posted previously, if someone pulled up and said something to Samantha like "I've just run over a dog - is it yours?" IMO she wouldn't hesitate to come over.

MOO a possibility.
Click to expand...
Yes a good theory but I think it would have only gone as far as being threatening? Actually harming someone would not get the cooperation of the business.
 
Yup, Detective W, these are my thoughts exactly! My husband and I have Find my Phone apps on all our family phones (cause I lose mine at home all the time) and on my air pods and on my watch (e-sim). It's so useful, we don't find it intrusive, but that is just us.
 
jjleroche said:
Yes or extortionists saying they have Samantha. IMO.

Mods I hope this post is OK as per TOS as it does refer to an aspect of Crash Repair Businesses, but I'm not sleuthing the family - the opposite really.
Anyway, or what it's worth - my current theory:

When I heard Samantha and Mick's daughter Jess speaking at the press conference a few days ago, she commented:
"she's a really strong woman - far too determined to give up this fight". "This fight" - something which may have been discussed, and Samantha has been determined that they should stand their ground?)

I've given some thought to various possibilities - self-harm, running away to start a new life, random attack, stalker attack, snakebite, hit-and-run - I've ruled each of these possibilities out for various reasons.
I don''t believe Mick was involved, for a number of reasons (which I won't elaborate on now, as I have to dash out shortly, but can post my thoughts on that aspect later if anyone is interested.

There aren't many motives left, but I think extortion is a realistic possibility, and could fit with the comment which Jess made.
Samantha and Mick's business, Inland Motor Body Works is IMO a "clean" crash repair business. (ie Not involved in any sort of illegal activity which is sometimes associated with crash repair businesses.
All the major auto insurers support them (as per the business's website. IMO at least some insurers would not be associated with them if there was the slightest whiff of dodgy stuff occurring in the business.

My extortion/revenge theory is that a person, or persons, may have requested that Mick/the business undertake various types of illegal crash repair-related work for them. In effect, "an offer too good to refuse."

IIMO they would have refused such a request. IMO Samantha and Mick would pride themselves on running an honest and highly-regarded operation.)

The sort of person who makes such a request is not someone to be messed with. If this scenario DID occur, I can imagine that revenge is something which such a person would be keen to extract (along with $$$ possibly).

(Not only would the knock-back have been perceived as offensive, IMO there's now another problem. Mick and Samantha now know that that person is a criminal - they may talk. Extortionists IMO would avoid eliminating the person who delivered the refusal of the offer (Mick I'm guessing) - they would seek to extract revenge by doing harm to Mick's family - his greatest vulnerability. "Disappearing" Samantha may seem to such a creature to be a good disincentive to Mick and/or other family members if they were considering informing police.
Hence how to actually "get" Samantha would be carefully considered. Some sort of ploy to get her into a vehicle - then a gun with a silencer - done. They would have been careful to check locations of CCTV's etc
Wouldn't surprise me if Michael were set up to take the rap. Maybe use of a vehicle from the business?
As I've posted previously, if someone pulled up and said something to Samantha like "I've just run over a dog - is it yours?" IMO she wouldn't hesitate to come over.

MOO a possibility.
Click to expand...
Great post, it certainly ticks more boxes than other theories, and maybe gives hope that she is still alive, and could explain the family’s reluctance to answer questions at Press conference.
 
they'll get you said:
If I read between the lines with how impressed words like ‘Suspicious’ and ‘he’s assisting police with their investigations’, the house has been searched and there is no evidence she left the property.
Click to expand...
RSBM
"No evidence she left the property" - what we really need is evidence that she did leave the property or definitely did not leave the property. A lack of evidence doesn't really indicate anything, IMO.
 
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inkpink said:
A possibility is that she tripped and injured herself and then someone offered her a lift, but in saying that she would probably just call someone...
Click to expand...

That reminds me that for a while in our area there was a rapist who operated by using his car to knock down women jogging or walking, then getting out of the car and pretending to help them, saying he'd drive them to a clinic for their injuries. Then he'd drive them to an isolated area and leave them unconscious.

I'm not saying anything like that happened here, but I hope LE is looking into the possibility.
 
carbuff said:
That reminds me that for a while in our area there was a rapist who operated by using his car to knock down women jogging or walking, then getting out of the car and pretending to help them, saying he'd drive them to a clinic for their injuries. Then he'd drive them to an isolated area and leave them unconscious.

I'm not saying anything like that happened here, but I hope LE is looking into the possibility.
Click to expand...

I never go jogging alone.
Always in a group, especially in parks.
There are usually 3 girls and a dog :)
My dearest pup is the leader haha - and happy and proud about it.
 
jjleroche said:
Yes or extortionists saying they have Samantha. IMO.

Mods I hope this post is OK as per TOS as it does refer to an aspect of Crash Repair Businesses, but I'm not sleuthing the family - the opposite really.
Anyway, or what it's worth - my current theory:

When I heard Samantha and Mick's daughter Jess speaking at the press conference a few days ago, she commented:
"she's a really strong woman - far too determined to give up this fight". "This fight" - something which may have been discussed, and Samantha has been determined that they should stand their ground?)

I've given some thought to various possibilities - self-harm, running away to start a new life, random attack, stalker attack, snakebite, hit-and-run - I've ruled each of these possibilities out for various reasons.
I don''t believe Mick was involved, for a number of reasons (which I won't elaborate on now, as I have to dash out shortly, but can post my thoughts on that aspect later if anyone is interested.

There aren't many motives left, but I think extortion is a realistic possibility, and could fit with the comment which Jess made.
Samantha and Mick's business, Inland Motor Body Works is IMO a "clean" crash repair business. (ie Not involved in any sort of illegal activity which is sometimes associated with crash repair businesses.
All the major auto insurers support them (as per the business's website. IMO at least some insurers would not be associated with them if there was the slightest whiff of dodgy stuff occurring in the business.

My extortion/revenge theory is that a person, or persons, may have requested that Mick/the business undertake various types of illegal crash repair-related work for them. In effect, "an offer too good to refuse."

IIMO they would have refused such a request. IMO Samantha and Mick would pride themselves on running an honest and highly-regarded operation.)

The sort of person who makes such a request is not someone to be messed with. If this scenario DID occur, I can imagine that revenge is something which such a person would be keen to extract (along with $$$ possibly).

(Not only would the knock-back have been perceived as offensive, IMO there's now another problem. Mick and Samantha now know that that person is a criminal - they may talk. Extortionists IMO would avoid eliminating the person who delivered the refusal of the offer (Mick I'm guessing) - they would seek to extract revenge by doing harm to Mick's family - his greatest vulnerability. "Disappearing" Samantha may seem to such a creature to be a good disincentive to Mick and/or other family members if they were considering informing police.
Hence how to actually "get" Samantha would be carefully considered. Some sort of ploy to get her into a vehicle - then a gun with a silencer - done. They would have been careful to check locations of CCTV's etc
Wouldn't surprise me if Michael were set up to take the rap. Maybe use of a vehicle from the business?
As I've posted previously, if someone pulled up and said something to Samantha like "I've just run over a dog - is it yours?" IMO she wouldn't hesitate to come over.

MOO a possibility.
Click to expand...
Excellent post....I've been thinking along the same lines
 
carbuff said:
That reminds me that for a while in our area there was a rapist who operated by using his car to knock down women jogging or walking, then getting out of the car and pretending to help them, saying he'd drive them to a clinic for their injuries. Then he'd drive them to an isolated area and leave them unconscious.

I'm not saying anything like that happened here, but I hope LE is looking into the possibility.
Click to expand...

Heard about lots of crazy cases like this. Men pretending to be forest rangers, men pretending to need directions... The list goes on :(
 
But what about the last phone ping far away from home?

Did somebody get rid of her phone there?

Is there cctv of this area?
What cars were seen there?
And what was exactly the time of this ping?
Who was in this area at that time?
 
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