Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #7

[Deleted member 340727]

Yes you are right that these men are working the mine, but I believe it is relevant to the SM investigation because of the nature of the type of situation that may be the end game for what has occurred. We're not saying this is what has happened but at the same time we have to consider it as a suspected outcome.
MOO

Mine collapse near Samantha Murphy search site in Mount Clear​

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theaustralian.com.au/breaking-news/mine-collapse-near-samantha-murphy-search-site-in-mount-clear/news-story/45b8554db2f56fa39684ddb3edcf0b5e%3famp

 

[acutename]

still curious to me that the victim here was so much older than the alleged murderer. Why not a peer?
(US stats- not sure if AUS is the same)
Which age group has the highest rate of victimization?


The NCVS statistics reveal that the rates of violent victimization for 12- to 17-year-olds are substantially higher than the rates for adults, for the most part by a factor of two to three times.

Violent Victimization of Youth Versus Adults in the National Crime ...​

found some AUS stats but they are old and include victims/murderers who are known or intimaet partners

https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-05/tandi124.pdf

 

[Deleted member 340727]

still curious to me that the victim here was so much older than the alleged murderer. Why not a peer?
(US stats- not sure if AUS is the same)
Which age group has the highest rate of victimization?


The NCVS statistics reveal that the rates of violent victimization for 12- to 17-year-olds are substantially higher than the rates for adults, for the most part by a factor of two to three times.
View attachment 490230

Violent Victimization of Youth Versus Adults in the National Crime ...​

found some AUS stats but they are old and include victims/murderers who are known or intimaet partners

https://www.aic.gov.au/sites/default/files/2020-05/tandi124.pdf

Thank you for the attached. August 1999 high incidence in death due to domestic altercations, 3 in 5 15+ age group. Figures maybe still within range today (?)

'still curious to me that the victim here was so much older than the alleged murderer. Why not a peer?' YS
That age difference is crucial in understanding the actions and reactions. What was the driving force that pushed the alleged perp. over the edge?
There are so many dynamics around this case that has us all intrigued, and at the same time deeply saddened.

Of interest acutename:

Inside the life of Patrick Stephenson, the man accused of killing Samantha Murphy

Detectives allege Patrick Stephenson took Samantha Murphy’s life on February 4 and attempted to conceal the killing for more than a month.

www.theage.com.au

MOO

 

[Dotta]

Thank you for the attached. August 1999 high incidence in death due to domestic altercations, 3 in 5 15+ age group. Figures maybe still within range today (?)

'still curious to me that the victim here was so much older than the alleged murderer. Why not a peer?' YS
That age difference is crucial in understanding the actions and reactions. What was the driving force that pushed the alleged perp. over the edge?
There are so many dynamics around this case that has us all intrigued, and at the same time deeply saddened.

Of interest acutename:

Inside the life of Patrick Stephenson, the man accused of killing Samantha Murphy

Detectives allege Patrick Stephenson took Samantha Murphy’s life on February 4 and attempted to conceal the killing for more than a month.

www.theage.com.au

MOO

IMO
The simplest answer is that a lone woman happened to be at this place at this unfortunate time.

JMO

 

[Angeline]

Not sure who reposted and replied to one of my comments on previous thread.
I found the article which states quoting

“7NEWS understands police had been keeping an eye on Patrick Stephenson for two weeks before he was arrested.”

The link

Item belonging to Samantha Murphy’s accused killer seized by police

7NEWS understands police had been keeping an eye on Patrick Stephenson for two weeks before he was arrested.

7news.com.au

I've been pondering the scenario of more than one person being involved. I know police said they are not looking for anyone else, but they throw out red herrings sometimes. Maybe they have others under surveillance and are waiting for them to relax.

Around the time they put PS under surveillance, they also said they were looking for more than one person, and also looking for a weapon

'One or more parties likely involved' in Victorian mum's disappearance

www.google.com

 

[jjleroche]

The Earth Education complex cctv equipped in Olympic Ave at start of rough track uphill to Boak Rd.View attachment 490183View attachment 490184

Brilliant information Dr Samoht, (and also SEJ and other posters with local knowledge of the area, as well as
South Aussie's Google Maps info. (I'll reply to their posts separately.)

(JMO - It'd be bad enough having Vicpol on your tail, but having such diligent and brilliant WS's on your case as well...this bloke's in serious strife...)

Sincerest condolences to Samantha's loved ones

 

[Voluspa]

Construction sites require skip bin collections “ when required “ so are not locked into a regular collection cycle. There is no long term contract with the waste company required for the principal contractor. Once the tenancy is handed over to the occupants then that is the point when a regular collection is arranged

In that case, wouldn't a decaying body smell be noticeable before collection was arranged? Especially in the summer heat. IMO.

Edit to add - it could just be the disposal of SM personal belongings that were intended.

 

[BGirl88]

Minaka, I am very keen to hear what you think? Share your theories and let’s debate them. What are your True Detective “right questions”? I am out of ideas for now. Not much new info since the presser, just some gossip about the accused.

It is true we seem to be going over the same theories for 7 threads. Kudos to whoever had the prankster theory today, that is a new one.

My true detective questions: why haven’t police released the vehicle details, rego, photos and sought info on vehicle sightings? Why haven’t we seen police divers searching water bodies in the area?

IMO the accused had all day Sunday to himself, has taken backroads to some out of the way place, and returned Sunday evening. Smart enough to quickly ditch/destroy SMs devices and therefore smart enough to leave his own devices behind. Potential long range diesel tanks in a 4wd like that, he could have gone over the border into SA and back for all we know. If he stuck to dirt back roads, out of sight and away from CCTV, it makes it very hard for police. I only hope SM was killed quickly and at the start, and not taken away alive for some unthinkable reason.

IMO he acted alone. But it always surprises me how many people “phone a friend” to help with a body, and even more surprised how many friends say yes.

I agree we should take the police statements with a pinch of salt. They had the accused in custody for a day and a half before MSM and the public found out. For all we know police have SMs remains, phone and watch now and are undergoing forensics. They owe us nothing, they need to do whatever it takes to secure a conviction. Eg if the accused eventually relents and reveals the location of the body, it’s a pretty simple trial.

Toowong - I have also wondered if LE have already found Samantha (or her phone and watch) and just waiting to see if the accused cracks.

 

[Dotta]

Toowong - I have also wondered if LE have already found Samantha (or her phone and watch) and just waiting to see if the accused cracks.

But, surely,
if they found the body
there would be enough DNA evidence for them,
that they wouldn't care if the alleged perp cracks or not.

I think the victim will be found by a complete accident by a member of the public.

And everybody will be surprised.

JMO

 

[blushcherry]

There is no need to continue associating the mine collapse with this case. Ballarat gold mine is a working mine. The bush mine shafts are completely unassociated.

 

[Dotta]

There is no need to continue associating the mine collapse with this case. Ballarat gold mine is a working mine. The bush mine shafts are completely unassociated.

The only association is tragedy in Ballarat.

My thoughts are with the miners
I also come from a mining region.
Not gold but coal.

But there was once a time when coal was called
"Black Gold".

 

[PIMaz]

I am a little confused... has he admitted to killing SM and then remained silent. He has been charged, was that by evidence from LE with phone data only.

 

[Kemug]

Maybe Samantha did "tell him off" about something, which made him angry. Possibly in his life other people had often "told him off" (teachers? parents? even girlfriend?), and this was the last straw.

 

[SouthAussie]

I think the victim will be found by a complete accident by a member of the public.

I'm leaning that way also.

If the victim is not found in the initial searches, they are often stumbled upon by accident ... much, much later.

Let's hope that, at some point, this accused tells the police where Sam is.
Adrian Bayley took the police to Jill. Greg Lynn may have led the police to Russell and Carol by returning to where he (allegedly) disposed of them, twice in a nine month period.

imo

 

[Algorithm]

But, surely,
if they found the body
there would be enough DNA evidence for them,
that they wouldn't care if the alleged perp cracks or not.

I think the victim will be found by a complete accident by a member of the public.

And everybody will be surprised.

JMO

Absolutely agree. I think the accused probably had a few days to think of where to dispose of the body (hopefully LE have the phone data and are searching possible areas) but will definitely be found eventually by a walker/hiker somewhere close to a road/4wd track . IMO it would be where there is a small drop off the side of the road but clear enough for a body roll down into scrub and accused to scramble down and cover it up.

 

[RobinCAL]

'One or more parties likely involved' in Victorian mum's disappearance

www.9news.com.au

Just some random thoughts

- I feel as if the police must have footage showing the attack or aftermath ...anything really as I'm struggling to see what evidence they could have of the alleged suspect that would have the murder charge as well as working alone.
IMO any phone data + comments he could have made that were overheard can't really be all they have for such a strong charge.

And the idea of how confident they are that it was just him. Of course, all this could be a moot point if the alleged suspect has spoken and admitted anything, which i doubt as nothing has been said to the contrary.

Also, if they found anything at the properties/cars , surely they need a warrant, which you would think needs solid evidence.

Overall, I think what I'm trying to say is I don't think the phone pings is enough and i could be wrong, but it feels like thats all they've got and I wonder what put him on their radar for two weeks. As well as if there was footage, surely its very cut and dry.

 

[Whatson]

Someone mentioned cameras strapped to trees, the kind with an SD card and motion sensors. Yes, they exist in bushland in Australia and are used by different authorities.

A remote air bnb I once stayed at had one. However it only seemed to take still shot photos, not video.

Not sure what would be rigged up in the area the incident occurred.

 

[SouthAussie]

Overall, I think what I'm trying to say is I don't think the phone pings is enough and i could be wrong, but it feels like thats all they've got and I wonder what put him on their radar for two weeks. As well as if there was footage, surely its very cut and dry.

I posted further back that it was a small piece of CCTV that first put them onto the accused. We don't know where that piece of CCTV came from ... yet. But he may have been (for example) the only person to be seen entering/leaving the relevant forest area at a relevant time.

I imagine that, from that point, they covertly investigated him and his movements.
Who knows when the police obtained the tower dump, we only know when the police let that information out to the media.
And who knows if the police got his phone movements early on via a warrant. It was a covert investigation.

imo

 

[Whatson]

Some light articles on the types of cameras that may be lurking in the bush..

'Big Brother' of the bush

Scientists spy on wildlife to save species

stories.uq.edu.au

Farm Security Cameras - Outdoor Cameras Australia

Keep your rural property safe with the latest in outdoor farm security cameras. Solar powered and capable of sending images via 3G and 4G to your mobile.

outdoorcameras.com.au

 

[RobinCAL]

I posted further back that it was a small piece of CCTV that first put them onto the accused. We don't know where that piece of CCTV came from ... yet. But he may have been (for example) the only person to be seen entering/leaving the relevant forest area at a relevant time.

I imagine that, from that point, they covertly investigated him and his movements.
Who knows when the police obtained the tower dump, we only know when the police let that information out to the media.
And who knows if the police got his phone movements early on via a warrant. It was a covert investigation.

imo

Appreciate that, just think it being SMALL..surely it has to much more to put murder and working alone. Must be a damming piece of CCTV...i just think his phone movements aren't enough IMO for the charges brought against him.

Of course we don't know the inns and outs of the investigation but just speculating on the information provided, which is all we can do until further notice.