I once heard a phrase (it was probably from a true crime show),"The simplest answer is usually correct" aka Occam's Razor.
I don't know why, but this phrase always sticks with me when browsing Websleuths. I know it's a terrible way to do detective work, but, if this theory is usually correct, then a woman usually goes missing because either:
A significant other committed murder and tried to cover it up (that's obviously been ruled out)
or
She is attacked by a random psychopath who has a deep hatred for women
What's most puzzling about this case, is trying to figure out why the accused was allegedly in that area at that time, early on a Sunday morning. It seems to throw the "randomness" aspect out the window. I just don't get why he chose that time and location to attack someone. How did he know that a woman would come jogging past?
It seems that nobody else reported a strange young man watching women in the area leading up to the attack. I realise 2 women came forward, but they described someone dishevelled which doesn't seem to fit the appearance of the accused, unless he was in disguise?
I think myself, it was planned and SM was the target only
He has had a bit of a fantasy of her or another reason
He might have had his vehicle a couple of times being serviced at MM and SM car workshop centre
Or he has seen her while he has been riding his motorcycle in there and started following and watching her
But he went out the night before as usual with some mates
But was not too effected by alcohol or drugs ( the video going around of the accused snorting drugs was in January, not the night before )
But he had been watching SM for some time, and he knew she was going for a run that morning, ( as he has seen her before and what time she goes )
Would be interesting if police have picked up CCTV of his vehicle hanging around SM house
And that Sunday morning, that's when he was going to attack her
He waited for her in the bush at the 7km mark, this part of the bush he knew was more secluded, in his car hidden
and SM would have been slightly tired at the 7km mark and would be more easily to overpower
As SM ran past, he crept up behind her and hit her hard, with a king hit or something heavy
He then dragged her, lifted her into his vehicle
VICPOLICE COMM This was a deliberate
attack on
Samantha,” Patton said.