Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #8

[Deleted member 340727]

A possibility she was unconscious, (still alive) when she left that area

And the LE et. al. were able to follow SM movements by the 2 devices she had attached to her body: 'hit and stay' then move and conclusion at Mount Clear. A much later ping BT (about 1700 hrs) was noted and there is much conjecture about this. MOO

 

[marv hucker]

Victoria does have no body, no parole. However it seems states having varying wording on this. Like if they cooperated, do they complete their full sentence, or never get released.
This article lists the various NB,NP of the States that have this legislation.

No body, no parole - laws in Australia - Crime - Australia

Some States have laws which refuse parole to offenders who fail to disclose the whereabouts of the victim's body.

www.mondaq.com

It’s parole (ie considerations/perks within the sentence) not sentence length.

Parole boards are essentially a function of the prison system rather than the courts proper.

I would think no body would count strongly against someone’s request for parole. This law codifies it and means nobody wastes their time.

 

[Trooper]

Did he?

And the LE et. al. were able to follow SM movements by the 2 devices she had attached to her body: 'hit and stay' then move and conclusion at Mount Clear. A much later ping BT (about 1700 hrs) was noted and there is much conjecture about this. MOO

Yes ..he did, actually. Say what I said he said.

 

[Rocket333]

Did Sam run 7kms one way? Was the site of the alleged incident her turning point or we don’t know? I’m wondering if she ran further than usual or planned, and if so why?

Mick says here that Samantha typically ran for 10kms.
“Yes, she walked in different directions, but she kept to the paths, never went for more than 10km total roughly and would let family know if she was walking further.”

Mystifying clue in Samantha Murphy's disappearance

Samantha Murphy was wearing what appears to be an Apple Watch when she went missing, sparking speculation the device might help detectives locate her whereabouts.

www.dailymail.co.uk

But here it says (as we’re aware) that she ran 7kms to Mt Clear. She still needed to turn and run home (right?) which would have taken her beyond the usual 10k run.

“The digital data allowed detectives to ascertain that on February 4, Murphy departed her residence and ran approximately 7km through Woowookarung Regional Park, ultimately arriving at Mount Clear.”

'Anomaly' in digital data could be clue to Samantha Murphy's disappearance

9now.nine.com.au

 

[Angeline]

I once heard a phrase (it was probably from a true crime show),"The simplest answer is usually correct" aka Occam's Razor.

I don't know why, but this phrase always sticks with me when browsing Websleuths. I know it's a terrible way to do detective work, but, if this theory is usually correct, then a woman usually goes missing because either:

A significant other committed murder and tried to cover it up (that's obviously been ruled out)

or

She is attacked by a random psychopath who has a deep hatred for women

What's most puzzling about this case, is trying to figure out why the accused was allegedly in that area at that time, early on a Sunday morning. It seems to throw the "randomness" aspect out the window. I just don't get why he chose that time and location to attack someone. How did he know that a woman would come jogging past?

It seems that nobody else reported a strange young man watching women in the area leading up to the attack. I realise 2 women came forward, but they described someone dishevelled which doesn't seem to fit the appearance of the accused, unless he was in disguise?

 

[Dr Samoht]

Did Sam run 7kms one way? Was the site of the alleged incident her turning point or we don’t know? I’m wondering if she ran further than usual or planned, and if so why?

Mick says here that Samantha typically tan for 10kms.
“Yes, she walked in different directions, but she kept to the paths, never went for more than 10km total roughly and would let family know if she was walking further.”

'Anomaly' in digital data could be clue to Samantha Murphy's disappearance

9now.nine.com.au

But here it says (as we’re aware) that she ran 7kms to Mt Clear. She still needed to turn and run home (right?) which would have taken her beyond the usual 10k run.

“The digital data allowed detectives to ascertain that on February 4, Murphy departed her residence and ran approximately 7km through Woowookarung Regional Park, ultimately arriving at Mount Clear.”

'Anomaly' in digital data could be clue to Samantha Murphy's disappearance

9now.nine.com.au

SM I recall stated at the family dinner the previous evening she intended a 14 Km run. Mt Clear should be the turnaround point .
MM says 10 Km runs were her norm .. that’s understandable for someone in training’s week day runs for a half marathon . Typically that athlete will do one or more longer efforts on the weekend … nothing unusual here … allowing a two hour window 7-9 am on a predicted hot day was very doable .

 

[Rocket333]

And the LE et. al. were able to follow SM movements by the 2 devices she had attached to her body: 'hit and stay' then move and conclusion at Mount Clear. A much later ping BT (about 1700 hrs) was noted and there is much conjecture about this. MOO

Why was the phone apparently quiet until the ping at 5pm? Do you reckon the 5pm ping was reported publicly to explain police focus on Buninyong or to generate some kind of reaction or attention, or was it just true that it didn’t ping at all until then? It couldn’t have been destroyed if it pinged at 5pm, so was it off during the day or was it perhaps pinging the whole time?

“Phair said that this type of data is extremely reliable and accurate and the disturbance in this data at the 7km mark reveals some form of sophistication. That means someone's done something active against those two devices and you have to know what you are doing to think I'm going to completely take these out. It's not just turning them off, it's destroying them and then getting rid of that piece of evidence.”

'Anomaly' in digital data could be clue to Samantha Murphy's disappearance

9now.nine.com.au

 

[HoneyBunOne]

Did Sam run 7kms one way? Was the site of the alleged incident her turning point or we don’t know? I’m wondering if she ran further than usual or planned, and if so why?

Mick says here that Samantha typically ran for 10kms.
“Yes, she walked in different directions, but she kept to the paths, never went for more than 10km total roughly and would let family know if she was walking further.”

Mystifying clue in Samantha Murphy's disappearance

Samantha Murphy was wearing what appears to be an Apple Watch when she went missing, sparking speculation the device might help detectives locate her whereabouts.

www.dailymail.co.uk

But here it says (as we’re aware) that she ran 7kms to Mt Clear. She still needed to turn and run home (right?) which would have taken her beyond the usual 10k run.

“The digital data allowed detectives to ascertain that on February 4, Murphy departed her residence and ran approximately 7km through Woowookarung Regional Park, ultimately arriving at Mount Clear.”

'Anomaly' in digital data could be clue to Samantha Murphy's disappearance

9now.nine.com.au

It appears Samantha's "usual" runs were about the 10km mark, however she was in training for an upcoming run. I don't believe this run was ever named, or the length announced, but she could have been increasing her distance in preparation. It could have been the Ballarat Marathon at the end of April, which has a half marathon event (a bit over 21km). Not being a runner, I'm not sure what the recommended training schedule would be to get to that distance for the (possible) first time. I do believe it has been reported that she would have been roughly at the halfway mark when she was allegedly murdered, meaning this particular run would have been about 14km. That fits in with the runs of 7km in her honour around the state, with the hashtag #finishSamanthasrun.

The following quote comes from the below article:
"Murphy’s disappearance was out of character as she had been described as mentally and physically fit, and was training for an upcoming race by undertaking 15km runs."

Samantha Murphy: Patrick Stephenson identified as alleged killer of Ballarat woman

Magistrate lifts order which prohibited naming son of former AFL footballer accused of murder

www.theguardian.com

 

[Dr Samoht]

It appears Samantha's "usual" runs were about the 10km mark, however she was in training for an upcoming run. I don't believe this run was ever named, or the length announced, but she could have been increasing her distance in preparation. It could have been the Ballarat Marathon at the end of April, which has a half marathon event (a bit over 21km). Not being a runner, I'm not sure what the recommended training schedule would be to get to that distance for the (possible) first time. I do believe it has been reported that she would have been roughly at the halfway mark when she was allegedly murdered, meaning this particular run would have been about 14km. That fits in with the runs of 7km in her honour around the state, with the hashtag #finishSamanthasrun.

The following quote comes from the below article:
"Murphy’s disappearance was out of character as she had been described as mentally and physically fit, and was training for an upcoming race by undertaking 15km runs."

Samantha Murphy: Patrick Stephenson identified as alleged killer of Ballarat woman

Magistrate lifts order which prohibited naming son of former AFL footballer accused of murder

www.theguardian.com

I believe it was the ‘Run the Gap’ half marathon at the end of May .
As a long distance athlete myself I would say her training regime was completely in line for an optimum performance with that 3-4 month training lead up.
SM could well have decided on a selected distance in the upcoming Ballarat Marathon some 5 weeks away now .

<modsnip: No link to image. ALL images require a link to source>

 

[HoneyBunOne]

I believe it was the ‘Run the Gap’ half marathon at the end of May .
As a long distance athlete myself I would say her training regime was completely in line for an optimum performance with that 3-4 month training lead up.
SM could well have decided on a selected distance in the upcoming Ballarat Marathon some 5 weeks away now .

Thanks for your insider knowledge, as a local.
I just assumed it would be a local event and looked for one that may fit. I'd like to think that if she was already entered into it, that the event will do some sort of minute's silence or something to honour her. MOO

 

[bearbear]

Just removed one from my Ballarat road route into work ( clearly hit by many vehicles ) . They can pop up anywhere , even in the suburbs

so sad theyre all losing their habitat

 

[Deleted member 340727]

so was it off during the day or was it perhaps pinging the whole time?

Pinging the whole time and we've been told about the last ping. That's my conclusion. You cannot stop and start a device like this unless you completely destroy it.

 

[Trooper]

It seems to me, that if Mr. S had an alibi.. that is, that he was somewhere else, on that Sunday morning, in Ballarat getting supplies , 7am Sunday is a bit rich though, or in Melbourne, or at a beach party at Apollo bay, somewhere klms away from the murder location, or on the road to Bendigo for an electricians conference , that he would at least say that, if nothing else. But no.

 

[Nifty]

I once heard a phrase (it was probably from a true crime show),"The simplest answer is usually correct" aka Occam's Razor.

I don't know why, but this phrase always sticks with me when browsing Websleuths. I know it's a terrible way to do detective work, but, if this theory is usually correct, then a woman usually goes missing because either:

A significant other committed murder and tried to cover it up (that's obviously been ruled out)

or

She is attacked by a random psychopath who has a deep hatred for women

What's most puzzling about this case, is trying to figure out why the accused was allegedly in that area at that time, early on a Sunday morning. It seems to throw the "randomness" aspect out the window. I just don't get why he chose that time and location to attack someone. How did he know that a woman would come jogging past?

It seems that nobody else reported a strange young man watching women in the area leading up to the attack. I realise 2 women came forward, but they described someone dishevelled which doesn't seem to fit the appearance of the accused, unless he was in disguise?

I think myself, it was planned and SM was the target only

He has had a bit of a fantasy of her or another reason

He might have had his vehicle a couple of times being serviced at MM and SM car workshop centre

Or he has seen her while he has been riding his motorcycle in there and started following and watching her

But he went out the night before as usual with some mates

But was not too effected by alcohol or drugs ( the video going around of the accused snorting drugs was in January, not the night before )

But he had been watching SM for some time, and he knew she was going for a run that morning, ( as he has seen her before and what time she goes )
Would be interesting if police have picked up CCTV of his vehicle hanging around SM house

And that Sunday morning, that's when he was going to attack her

He waited for her in the bush at the 7km mark, this part of the bush he knew was more secluded, in his car hidden
and SM would have been slightly tired at the 7km mark and would be more easily to overpower

As SM ran past, he crept up behind her and hit her hard, with a king hit or something heavy

He then dragged her, lifted her into his vehicle


VICPOLICE COMM This was a deliberate attack on Samantha,” Patton said.

 

[Deleted member 340727]

VICPOLICE COMM This was a deliberate attack on Samantha,” Patton said.

Good point Nifty. What does PC Patton mean by 'deliberate attack'? Did it occur at a site where SM was running or does it mean that SM was hit by a vehicle and this 'deliberate attack' was then acted out? MOO

 

[drsleuth]

I think myself, it was planned and SM was the target only

He has had a bit of a fantasy of her or another reason

He might have had his vehicle a couple of times being serviced at MM and SM car workshop centre

Or he has seen her while he has been riding his motorcycle in there and started following and watching her

But he went out the night before as usual with some mates

But was not too effected by alcohol or drugs ( the video going around of the accused snorting drugs was in January, not the night before )

But he had been watching SM for some time, and he knew she was going for a run that morning, ( as he has seen her before and what time she goes )
Would be interesting if police have picked up CCTV of his vehicle hanging around SM house

And that Sunday morning, that's when he was going to attack her

He waited for her in the bush at the 7km mark, this part of the bush he knew was more secluded, in his car hidden
and SM would have been slightly tired at the 7km mark and would be more easily to overpower

As SM ran past, he crept up behind her and hit her hard, with a king hit or something heavy

He then dragged her, lifted her into his vehicle


VICPOLICE COMM This was a deliberate attack on Samantha,” Patton said.

BBM : Where is it stated, when the apparent video was taken, a link?

 

[HoneyBunOne]

DBM - I get to use an acronym I learnt here.

 

[drsleuth]

Good point Nifty. What does PC Patton mean by 'deliberate attack'? Did it occur at a site where SM was running or does it mean that SM was hit by a vehicle and this 'deliberate attack' was then acted out? MOO

My take on PC Patton's words, are that PS's intent was to attack SM & therefore was a deliberate attack........allegedly.

 

[BreakingNews]

It’s parole (ie considerations/perks within the sentence) not sentence length.

Parole boards are essentially a function of the prison system rather than the courts proper.

I would think no body would count strongly against someone’s request for parole. This law codifies it and means nobody wastes their time.

I don't understand your point. I know what parole boards are about! Did you read the complete article?

 

[Deleted member 340727]

My take on PC Patton's words, are that PS's intent was to attack SM & therefore was a deliberate attack........allegedly.

Thank you drsleuth
Then we have to ask ourselves the ultimate question: What was the motive, and why is the 22 yo alleged perp. deliberately attacking a 51 woman on a usual morning run?