Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #8

[Nifty]

this is horrible but im wondering if he cut the body into pieces and dispersed parts over a wide range, so she will never be found?

this is horrible but im wondering if he cut the body into pieces and dispersed parts over a wide range, so she will never be found?

Maybe her body has been passed onto someone else to dispose of her

 

[Oona]

He may have returned to make sure he didn't leave anything the first time, and may have returned to Mt Clear hence the search later on. Maybe all LE evidence is circumstantial?

I think the circumstantial evidence might be the alleged perpetrator’s phone pinging in the same location and at the same time Sam’s watch data indicated an event ( perhaps stopped moving, heart stopped).
They may also have cctv of his vehicle traveling toward the Mt clear area.

As far as I know there was never a distinct crime scene established where the attack was believed to have happened.
I would guess police can probably only ascertain an approximate location at this stage.

For a murder charge I would assume and hope there is something much more definitive, possibly something the alleged perpetrator has shared or disclosed with others.

All just speculation of course.

 

[acutename]

Moo...Roo's die other critters die. In Canada we got big critters, deer, bear, coyotes . . They die, but I hike a lot with my dogs , for decades , have never smelt death. I do look for bones of wildlife, but very very rarely find them.
Australia has a lot of insects, not sure how many are carnivores.
But human bones are quite often found in deserts and dry areas.
It has been awhile. But if the body was in water, maybe it would last longer.?
Police do get called to homes/apartments/tents for smell and sometimes flys. But that is an enclosed area. Much different than put in open. And most bodies are usually found by visual searches not by scent....moo

A few years ago there was a road killed deer near here- if they are in the road, they are usually removed by contractors but this was neither on the road nor in a yard- in a sort of grassy right of way. It commenced smelling very foul; it was beset by flies and vultures; it was a large carcass and somehow it persisted for many months- I think at one point some one threw some lime on it but it made no difference. It was extremely foul smelling for at least 6 mos and it required a winter season to stop smelling. Of course, if it had been 2 miles into a remote area- possibly no one to smell it. This was about 15 ft away from the sidewalk.

 

[ProfCluezo]

I think the circumstantial evidence might be the alleged perpetrator’s phone pinging in the same location and at the same time Sam’s watch data indicated an event ( perhaps stopped moving, heart stopped).
They may also have cctv of his vehicle traveling toward the Mt clear area.

As far as I know there was never a distinct crime scene established where the attack was believed to have happened.
I would guess police can probably only ascertain an approximate location at this stage.

For a murder charge I would assume and hope there is something much more definitive, possibly something the alleged perpetrator has shared or disclosed with others.

All just speculation of course.

This, bolded above, is a very important and interesting point you raise Oona. It seems a bit puzzling to me that Police haven’t identified a more precise scene of the alleged murder, if they do have the kind of video/cctv footage that a majority of websleuths seem to be speculating the police must be in possession of….? Surely any kind of cctv/video footage combined with the phone ping data ought to be sufficient to narrow down a pretty precise location…? Which to me raises the possibility that perhaps police don’t have cctv/video footage of the actual alleged murder? In which case, what else could the police have that would lead them to so confidently allege that it was a “deliberate attack” on Samantha, by the accused acting alone, resulting in her death, at Mt Clear on Sunday morning 4 Feb 2024, and it was not a “hit and run”…. ??

The plot continues to brew and thicken…

 

[bearbear]

This, bolded above, is a very important and interesting point you raise Oona. It seems a bit puzzling to me that Police haven’t identified a more precise scene of the alleged murder, if they do have the kind of video/cctv footage that a majority of websleuths seem to be speculating the police must be in possession of….? Surely any kind of cctv/video footage combined with the phone ping data ought to be sufficient to narrow down a pretty precise location…? Which to me raises the possibility that perhaps police don’t have cctv/video footage of the actual alleged murder? In which case, what else could the police have that would lead them to so confidently allege that it was a “deliberate attack” on Samantha, by the accused acting alone, resulting in her death, at Mt Clear on Sunday morning 4 Feb 2024, and it was not a “hit and run”…. ??

The plot continues to brew and thicken…

maybe a ,witness after the act, someone he told and they went back with a vehicle to move the body, gf maybe?

 

[ProfCluezo]

maybe a ,witness after the act, someone he told and they went back with a vehicle to move the body, gf maybe?

Thanks so much for the suggestion bearbear….

Just a few followup questions… assuming we think in line with your theory…

Hypothetically speaking, would the alleged account of someone PS purportedly told be sufficient for the police to allege “murder” so definitively? How would the police know it was deliberate? And that only PS was allegedly involved?

Let’s further speculate that hypothetically PS is alleged to have told someone and asked for their assistance to move SMs body…. How would the police be able to verify the “someone’s” story strongly enough to verify it was a deliberate attack by PS alone, resulting in SMs murder…?

Also, how would a theoretical “someone” be able to prove to the police that they were not involved in the alleged murder per se? Only moving of the body? And how would police know the alleged murder occurred on Sunday morning?

My head is spinning a little…

 

[Marie A]

There must be some very incriminating evidence on PS’s phone/ electronics IMHO

 

[ProfCluezo]

There must be some very incriminating evidence on PS’s phone/ electronics IMHO

Yes… fascinating to speculate what this might be…

 

[ProfCluezo]

If it was planned, hypothetically, one would expect search histories etc could be revealing….

But by the same token, if the accused is (as has been speculated), methodical in his planning, why be so careless in terms of leaving incriminating evidence on one’s personal phone?

If it wasn’t planned, then the incriminating evidence must, hypothetically, be from after the fact…?? JMO…

 

[Nifty]

This, bolded above, is a very important and interesting point you raise Oona. It seems a bit puzzling to me that Police haven’t identified a more precise scene of the alleged murder, if they do have the kind of video/cctv footage that a majority of websleuths seem to be speculating the police must be in possession of….? Surely any kind of cctv/video footage combined with the phone ping data ought to be sufficient to narrow down a pretty precise location…? Which to me raises the possibility that perhaps police don’t have cctv/video footage of the actual alleged murder? In which case, what else could the police have that would lead them to so confidently allege that it was a “deliberate attack” on Samantha, by the accused acting alone, resulting in her death, at Mt Clear on Sunday morning 4 Feb 2024, and it was not a “hit and run”…. ??

The plot continues to brew and thicken…

I think the police do have a precise area

But SM has been taken from that area in a vehicle, including her phone, watch etc

And the accused has made sure no evidence has been left behind,

Possibly has even come back to check again

when he's bundled her into his vehicle, most likely unconscious

It sounds like then the accused or someone else has possibly discarded some of these items in different places

In a 'new search' by police in the Buninyong area

Interesting the technology detector dogs brought in to search for SM's phone, watch etc and unfortunately nothing, that we know of was found

Whether this search was just an 'act' to get everyone on board including the media, to show possibly any other persons of interest the police are watching, that we are closing in on you !


These are the dogs used in the Erin Patterson search case...

One of the dogs, Georgia, found a USB, a micro secure digital card and a SIM card

Technology Detector Dog Alma found a mobile phone, five iPads, a trail camera, and secure digital card and a smartwatch,' AFP Commissioner Reece Kershaw said.'

These were not found during initial searches undertaken by officers.' The canines are considered to be the most elite of all sniffer dogs due to their ability to sense the microns-thin coating that protects computer circuit boards.

The AFP said their noses are so sensitive, they can even find tiny SIM or memory cards buried in walls or hidden in fruit.

 

[HoneyBunOne]

This, bolded above, is a very important and interesting point you raise Oona. It seems a bit puzzling to me that Police haven’t identified a more precise scene of the alleged murder, if they do have the kind of video/cctv footage that a majority of websleuths seem to be speculating the police must be in possession of….? Surely any kind of cctv/video footage combined with the phone ping data ought to be sufficient to narrow down a pretty precise location…? Which to me raises the possibility that perhaps police don’t have cctv/video footage of the actual alleged murder? In which case, what else could the police have that would lead them to so confidently allege that it was a “deliberate attack” on Samantha, by the accused acting alone, resulting in her death, at Mt Clear on Sunday morning 4 Feb 2024, and it was not a “hit and run”…. ??

The plot continues to brew and thicken…

Perhaps audio from either the alleged or Samantha? I'm not sure of the capabilities of an Apple watch, but she did have her phone on her as well. Lord only knows what the alleged had with him. There may be some pretty damning audio of an altercation and maybe the alleged talking to himself afterwards, either panicked or just an odd discussion on what to do next. I've seen a few true crime shows where the perp talks at length with themselves and admits to the crime. This is crazy to me, the most I talk to myself is if I drop something on my foot and I swear, or call myself something unsavoury. But then again, I can't understand killing someone either, so there's that....

Another thought is audio from a witness, with a discussion along the lines of "What did you just do? She's dead, you killed her". I have to wonder how damning audio alone would be, or coupled with phone pings or something other than visual evidence. Does anyone know the process of identifying voices and how audio evidence comes into play?

 

[HoneyBunOne]

Technology Detector Dog Alma found a mobile phone, five iPads, a trail camera, and secure digital card and a smartwatch,' AFP Commissioner Reece Kershaw said.'

Someone give Alma a bone and a scratch under the chin. Who's a good girl? Alma's a good girl!

 

[ProfCluezo]

Any guesses on what will happen next in terms of the overall investigation? It’s been two months…. No body…. No more more press conferences…. Will this be it, until Aug 8th?

 

[HoneyBunOne]

Any guesses on what will happen next in terms of the overall investigation? It’s been two months…. No body…. No more more press conferences…. Will this be it, until Aug 8th?

I sure hope not. A few weeks back I did think a key piece of evidence would be found within about a month. I'm feeling like that's less likey now. However, I'm sure the police are like ducks - calm and business as usual on the surface, and madly working continuously under water. Hopefully they'll have something significant to announce shortly and a whole heap of evidence by August.

 

[jjleroche]

Thanks so much for the suggestion bearbear….

Just a few followup questions… assuming we think in line with your theory…

Hypothetically speaking, would the alleged account of someone PS purportedly told be sufficient for the police to allege “murder” so definitively? How would the police know it was deliberate? And that only PS was allegedly involved?

Let’s further speculate that hypothetically PS is alleged to have told someone and asked for their assistance to move SMs body…. How would the police be able to verify the “someone’s” story strongly enough to verify it was a deliberate attack by PS alone, resulting in SMs murder…?

Also, how would a theoretical “someone” be able to prove to the police that they were not involved in the alleged murder per se? Only moving of the body? And how would police know the alleged murder occurred on Sunday morning?

My head is spinning a little…

 

[Nifty]

Any guesses on what will happen next in terms of the overall investigation? It’s been two months…. No body…. No more more press conferences…. Will this be it, until Aug 8th?

If something major happens...
If they find SM, charges made with anyone else involved etc...

Not forgetting as well

The police might have a witness/s who was there in the morning

Possibly out walking, walking dogs, bike rider etc. Before the day got too hot

Someone could have given the police the rego of his vehicle after seeing him speed off or his vehicle lurking around

And the police have then followed up on his ping with SM at the same time

 

[bearbear]

Thanks so much for the suggestion bearbear….

Just a few followup questions… assuming we think in line with your theory…

Hypothetically speaking, would the alleged account of someone PS purportedly told be sufficient for the police to allege “murder” so definitively? How would the police know it was deliberate? And that only PS was allegedly involved?

Let’s further speculate that hypothetically PS is alleged to have told someone and asked for their assistance to move SMs body…. How would the police be able to verify the “someone’s” story strongly enough to verify it was a deliberate attack by PS alone, resulting in SMs murder…?

Also, how would a theoretical “someone” be able to prove to the police that they were not involved in the alleged murder per se? Only moving of the body? And how would police know the alleged murder occurred on Sunday morning?

My head is spinning a little…

yes! my heads spinning now too!
so if there was no video footage, could sm have still been alive, unconscious when the witness arrived and he killed her in front of them? violated her? boasted about it to friends in the pub?
the witness, friend, gf came forward and now helping police, not sure how they could prove they werent involved in the killing though? or that it wasnt accidental?
maybe his internet history?

 

[BreakingNews]

Any guesses on what will happen next in terms of the overall investigation? It’s been two months…. No body…. No more more press conferences…. Will this be it, until Aug 8th?

I'm doubting the police will report anything of significance now until Aug. Unless of course they find SM.

 

[bearbear]

a different scenario..was there was a car load of them hooning around in the forest and area after the night clubs closed, ps saw sm and chased her on foot, for a laugh, attacked her, left her there, dead or alive for later disposal, maybe the friends watched it all from a distance?
came back later and moved sms body
that classifies as a targeted attack, only him involved, the others are witnesses
a separate witness may have noticed a loud speeding car full of youths? in the area early that morning?

 

[Sceptical]

If something major happens...
If they find SM, charges made with anyone else involved etc...

Not forgetting as well

The police might have a witness/s who was there in the morning

Possibly out walking, walking dogs, bike rider etc. Before the day got too hot

Someone could have given the police the rego of his vehicle after seeing him speed off or his vehicle lurking around

And the police have then followed up on his ping with SM at the same time

Police might have gotten the rego from Highway Patrol. There is a Highway Patrol charge against a “PS” listed in upcoming cases on the Magistrate’s Court of Vic site at 7.30am on the same day / place as “P.O.S” is appearing (at 8am). Obviously this may well be a completely different person, or be the same person and have occurred on a completely different date. IMO.

But it got me thinking, could it be possible that was picked up Highway Patrol Ballarat on Sunday morning? If so, it could put him in the vicinity of SM on the morning.

Some hypotheticals…

If he was picked up “before” he crossed paths with SM, he either would have a) been allowed to drive home (more likely if it was a speeding ticket, perhaps less likely if drug/alcohol affected), or b) be forced to leave his car/motorbike on the side of the road. IMO

a) If “before and allowed to drive”, perhaps he was distracted, adrenaline pumping after being picked up by HWP. Sunrise was at ~6.41am on the day SM went missing. Assuming he is driving east along Recreation Road, would the sun have been peeping over the tall trees around ~8am and shining straight into his eyes? Would the glare, mixed with a little dust, have partially obscured his view? I’m not local so unsure, interested to know what locals think about that. Perhaps he hits SM with his vehicle (she does not die due to the collision but afterwards with intent, in order for LA to lay a murder charge). IMO

b) If “before and not allowed to drive”, perhaps it’s too early / embarrassing to call for help, do you think it’s a possible scenario that he would start the ~10km walk to where he is staying Yendon no 2? It’s a long walk, perhaps <2 hours for someone of his fitness, less if he felt up to a jog. If plausible, perhaps he met SM on foot and an altercation of some sort occurs. IMO

Or perhaps he was stopped by HWP “after” he crossed paths / hit / had altercation with SM; though one would expect there to have been damage to his car or been acting noticeably nervous, which perhaps would have made resulted in a more swift arrest. Also wonder whether LA would have been more specific when asking about a damaged vehicle if they already know the make/model. They might have even picked him up in the area days/weeks after, catching him trying to clean up his crime scene. IMO