Australia Samantha Murphy, 51, last seen leaving her property to go for a run in the Canadian State Forest, Ballarat 100km NW of Melbourne, 4 Feb 2024 #8

[ProfCluezo]

Wow, loving everyone’s ideas and theories..!!! So good to to breathe some fresh air into the investigation. Keep the out-of-the-box ideas rolling!

 

[drsleuth]

I'm doubting the police will report anything of significance now until Aug. Unless of course they find SM.

I agree.

The police will not release info into the public arena unless they need the public's help.

They always keep info to themselves that only the alleged murderer would know etc

All IMO of course

 

[LovesPeace2]

I'm wondering if sm was jogging and he did not notice her until he was to close and he swerves damaging his car and because he is coming down from drugs he freaks out on car damage and he beats the hell outta sm . Then trips out more and disposes of body.im wondering if he wasn't alone in car? Just some theory I've been thinking about. Jmoo

 

[Kemug]

If only LE hadn't been so adamant that Samantha was definitely murdered, no ifs and buts. Then we would have any number of believable theories about what happened. As it is, we keep wondering this, and wondering that, and as far as I can see we are no closer to the answer than we ever were. We will just have to wait till August.

 

[drsleuth]

If only LE hadn't been so adamant that Samantha was definitely murdered, no ifs and buts. Then we would have any number of believable theories about what happened. As it is, we keep wondering this, and wondering that, and as far as I can see we are no closer to the answer than we ever were. We will just have to wait till August.

I think people need to remember this is still very early days in this investigation, not even 2 months.

In some cases , some of us have been following for years & years , some decades.

Patience

 

[Trooper]

I think people need to remember this is still very early days in this investigation, not even 2 months.

In some cases , some of us have been following for years & years , some decades.

Patience

And one of ghe quickest to apprehend a suspect. The young Palestinian girl who was murdered at Bundoora, off the last tram, it took about 2 months to find her killer, Eurydice Dixon, months, traipsing thru miles of CCTV around Melbourne on a Friday night, months, Masa Vukotic l, at Doncaster, CCTV on a bus finally convicted the murderer, but it took a while.

Stranger on stranger killings are the hardest ones to solve, and VICPOL got this hammered down in remarkably quick time. Particularly, with no body. Yet, they have information that has led them to publicly state that Mrs Murphy was murdered, at Mt Clear, on that Sunday morning, by Mr. Stephenson and no one else. Astonishing stuff, and looking back, a lot of signs were missed...

At some point, around 2 weeks before the arrest of Mr S, the dynamics of the investigation changed, 180 degrees around, from a Missing Person case to a Homicide case. The Motor Collision group went back to Melbourne, The Missing Persons squad retreated, and the Homicide Squad, the SOGs ( Soggys' Special Operations Group ) , and even, the Counter Terrorism group became involved.

Because the search goal changed , the personnel changed with it. Even the dogs changed and in flew the the Cadaver doggos. Trackers looking for signs of a lost person, gave way to trackers searching for a body, hidden. Amateur searchers were gently persuaded to leave it to the police, who knew that Mrs. Murphy was dead but obviously were in no position to advertise this fact. Until it was determined that it was time to make an arrest and lay a charge of murder.

So things have moved very quickly, all things considered, really.

 

[Dotta]

If only LE hadn't been so adamant that Samantha was definitely murdered, no ifs and buts. Then we would have any number of believable theories about what happened. As it is, we keep wondering this, and wondering that, and as far as I can see we are no closer to the answer than we ever were. We will just have to wait till August.

I think he was allegedly babbling to friends - after "a few" drinks boasting about the crime.

There was even a rumour how he allegedly disposed of the body.

JMO

 

[Kemug]

I think he was allegedly babbling to friends - after "a few" drinks boasting about the crime.

There was even a rumour how he allegedly disposed of the body.

JMO

Yes, he may not be the most mature of people.

 

[HoneyBunOne]

And one of ghe quickest to apprehend a suspect. The young Palestinian girl who was murdered at Bundoora, off the last tram, it took about 2 months to find her killer, Eurydice Dixon, months, traipsing thru miles of CCTV around Melbourne on a Friday night, months, Masa Vukotic l, at Doncaster, CCTV on a bus finally convicted the murderer, but it took a while.

Stranger on stranger killings are the hardest ones to solve, and VICPOL got this hammered down in remarkably quick time. Particularly, with no body. Yet, they have information that has led them to publicly state that Mrs Murphy was murdered, at Mt Clear, on that Sunday morning, by Mr. Stephenson and no one else. Astonishing stuff, and looking back, a lot of signs were missed...

At some point, around 2 weeks before the arrest of Mr S, the dynamics of the investigation changed, 180 degrees around, from a Missing Person case to a Homicide case. The Motor Collision group went back to Melbourne, The Missing Persons squad retreated, and the Homicide Squad, the SOGs ( Soggys' Special Operations Group ) , and even, the Counter Terrorism group became involved.

Because the search goal changed , the personnel changed with it. Even the dogs changed and in flew the the Cadaver doggos. Trackers looking for signs of a lost person, gave way to trackers searching for a body, hidden. Amateur searchers were gently persuaded to leave it to the police, who knew that Mrs. Murphy was dead but obviously were in no position to advertise this fact. Until it was determined that it was time to make an arrest and lay a charge of murder.

So things have moved very quickly, all things considered, really.

I think you're onto something there. This coincides with the time that it's believed police started to watch the accused. It does feel like something of significance happened around that time. Was it a tip off from the public? A witness cracked under the pressure? Was it something on the hours and hours of CCTV they were sifting through? Was this the time they accessed more in depth phone records/pings? Some other form of electronic data they finally got access to? (Strava fitness tracking details comes to mind) Came across some sort of DNA? Found an audio recording? A mistake the accused made somewhere? (Internet searches from the local library, plus CCTV, plus a booking under his name?) Let's hope we do get to the bottom of everything eventually.

 

[ProfCluezo]

I think people need to remember this is still very early days in this investigation, not even 2 months.

In some cases , some of us have been following for years & years , some decades.

Patience

So things have moved very quickly, all things considered, really.

Thanks Trooper and drsleuth…

Appreciate you putting the wait in perspective….

How do you both stay so patient…?!!!

Trooper… did you say YEARS??!!! Omg

 

[Rocket333]

And one of ghe quickest to apprehend a suspect. The young Palestinian girl who was murdered at Bundoora, off the last tram, it took about 2 months to find her killer, Eurydice Dixon, months, traipsing thru miles of CCTV around Melbourne on a Friday night, months, Masa Vukotic l, at Doncaster, CCTV on a bus finally convicted the murderer, but it took a while.

Stranger on stranger killings are the hardest ones to solve, and VICPOL got this hammered down in remarkably quick time. Particularly, with no body. Yet, they have information that has led them to publicly state that Mrs Murphy was murdered, at Mt Clear, on that Sunday morning, by Mr. Stephenson and no one else. Astonishing stuff, and looking back, a lot of signs were missed...

At some point, around 2 weeks before the arrest of Mr S, the dynamics of the investigation changed, 180 degrees around, from a Missing Person case to a Homicide case. The Motor Collision group went back to Melbourne, The Missing Persons squad retreated, and the Homicide Squad, the SOGs ( Soggys' Special Operations Group ) , and even, the Counter Terrorism group became involved.

Because the search goal changed , the personnel changed with it. Even the dogs changed and in flew the the Cadaver doggos. Trackers looking for signs of a lost person, gave way to trackers searching for a body, hidden. Amateur searchers were gently persuaded to leave it to the police, who knew that Mrs. Murphy was dead but obviously were in no position to advertise this fact. Until it was determined that it was time to make an arrest and lay a charge of murder.

So things have moved very quickly, all things considered, really.

What sort of direct evidence would be needed to hammer down a murder charge without a body?

 

[ProfCluezo]

Ok here’s a left field suggestion… what if the accused kept a diary…? A good old fashioned pen-and-paper-diary in which he recorded the gruesome details of the alleged murder for posterity? I know it’s a very analogue suggestion… but..:strange(r) things have
surely happened…. ?? Then perhaps gf could have sensed something was “off”… may at first considered maybe PS could be having an affair… ?? so decided to take a snoop at the trusty journal, not for a moment suspecting what was documented within…??!!! WHAT A SHOCK!!! All conjecture and speculation of course….

 

[Trooper]

What sort of direct evidence would be needed to hammer down a murder charge without a body?

It's not just the murder charge that is 'hammered down'.. the fact that VICPOL was/is willing to publicly claim Mrs. Murphy as deceased was, to me, astonishing on it's own. It is not the usual way of how VICPOL goes around things, or, come to think on it, any other police force. Then to add that she was murdered.. not accidentally killed, not contributing to her own death in any way, but 'attacked ' and murdered.

Then, on top of all this, they state where it happened and when it happened, and who did it.. All these things, on their own are startling and off the surprising scale. Considering there is no body found, as yet. But the combination is a colossal claim, in anyone's estimation.

And so, Rocket, to your question. What does it take?... It would take more than a person saying it. More than ping from a tower, more than an eye witness. An eyewitness without backup of evidence is not enough. So . there has to be the kind of evidence, that identifies Mr Stephenson as the killer, and Mrs. Murphy as the victim. That should go without saying, but it is sometimes missed... Firmly identifies, no mistake, no possibility of a mistake, there is no room for the slightest error in this claim, that it is her that is dead, and it is him that killed her.

And this is where he did it, and this is when he did it. To me, that means visual evidence, with sound and a mechanism of time and date shown.

This is what I think . I cannot think of any other reason that would compel VICPOL to make the claims they have. VICPOL are not in the business of fairy story production, so..

 

[Dotta]

It's not just the murder charge that is 'hammered down'.. the fact that VICPOL was/is willing to publicly claim Mrs. Murphy as deceased was, to me, astonishing on it's own. It is not the usual way of how VICPOL goes around things, or, come to think on it, any other police force. Then to add that she was murdered.. not accidentally killed, not contributing to her own death in any way, but 'attacked ' and murdered.

Then, on top of all this, they state where it happened and when it happened, and who did it.. All these things, on their own are startling and off the surprising scale. Considering there is no body found, as yet. But the combination is a colossal claim, in anyone's estimation.

And so, Rocket, to your question. What does it take?... It would take more than a person saying it. More than ping from a tower, more than an eye witness. An eyewitness without backup of evidence is not enough. So . there has to be the kind of evidence, that identifies Mr Stephenson as the killer, and Mrs. Murphy as the victim. That should go without saying, but it is sometimes missed... Firmly identifies, no mistake, no possibility of a mistake, there is no room for the slightest error in this claiim, that it is her that is dead, and it is him that killed her.

And this is where he did it, and this is when he did it. To me, that means visual evidence, with sound and a mechanism of time and date shown.

This is what I think . I cannot think of any other reason that would compel VICPOL to make the claims they have. VICPOL are not in the business of fairy story production, so..

Then, why to wait almost half a year for the next Court session?

 

[ProfCluezo]

Ok another left field suggestion… do you think it’s possible VICPOL could be using some form of AI in this investigation, Trooper, to nail down those kinds of details? Or only direct video and voice you think?

 

[marv hucker]

Thanks so much for the suggestion bearbear….

Just a few followup questions… assuming we think in line with your theory…

Hypothetically speaking, would the alleged account of someone PS purportedly told be sufficient for the police to allege “murder” so definitively? How would the police know it was deliberate? And that only PS was allegedly involved?

Let’s further speculate that hypothetically PS is alleged to have told someone and asked for their assistance to move SMs body…. How would the police be able to verify the “someone’s” story strongly enough to verify it was a deliberate attack by PS alone, resulting in SMs murder…?

Also, how would a theoretical “someone” be able to prove to the police that they were not involved in the alleged murder per se? Only moving of the body? And how would police know the alleged murder occurred on Sunday morning?

My head is spinning a little…

If “someone” has shown the texts/voicemail and they’ve been taken into evidence? Verified by metadata provided by the ISP.


“Someone” would perhaps not be able to conclusively prove who did what, but the one who goes to the cops first and coughs up their involvement (as an accessory or accessory after the fact) will start in their good books…

 

[Kemug]

Ok here’s a left field suggestion… what if the accused kept a diary…? A good old fashioned pen-and-paper-diary in which he recorded the gruesome details of the alleged murder for posterity? I know it’s a very analogue suggestion… but..:strange(r) things have
surely happened…. ?? Then perhaps gf could have sensed something was “off”… may at first considered maybe PS could be having an affair… ?? so decided to take a snoop at the trusty journal, not for a moment suspecting what was documented within…??!!! WHAT A SHOCK!!! All conjecture and speculation of course….

Quite possible, but a suspicious girlfriend (suspicious because of unaccounted times, thin stories, etc) would likely also check bf's phone for texts, photos, etc. I will not be at all surprised to learn that there are photos.

 

[ProfCluezo]

I mean could AI link together details of the kind you’ve described to provide sufficient proof of an evidence chain?

 

[marv hucker]

Any guesses on what will happen next in terms of the overall investigation? It’s been two months…. No body…. No more more press conferences…. Will this be it, until Aug 8th?

Best guess
They have some sort of smoking gun that we’ll find out at august 8

If he gives up the body location, it’ll be left to the last minute, get some sort of plea deal & avoid trial.

 

[Trooper]

Then, why to wait almost half a year for the next Court session?ii

I don't understand your question. Why does anyone wait for a court date? because courts take this sort of time , and police take this sort of time, and a Barrister needs this sort of time. I mean, he already has had one court session. No delay there, he appeared, via TV in court at Ballarat, from the Remand Centre in Melbourne, this satisfies the process of Habeus Corpus, ie. to bring the prisoner to court, to determine if his custody is legal, which, apparently, the court was satisfied that it was. I don't understand what you mean by to wait.