OR - Kyron Horman, 7 yo Second grader, Portland, 4 June 2010 - Part #13

How sad this whole thing is for everyone, his family, his classmates, his teachers and other playmates and their family and the community at large. I think today my emotions are sensitive because I realise that I am losing hope that he is going to just pop up out of nowhere and say Hey look what I found..A Redeyed Tree Frog!!

Pensfan said:

From previous thread:

--------------------------------------------

From Pensfan: Entrapment is when LE encourages someone to commit a crime in which that person would have not otherwise participated in doing. The FBI
 encouraged them to “go about their activities of daily living” but didn’t force them to do anything. They were watching their behavior to make necessary assessments. Many times in filicide cases, there has been abuse in the home. Many times there has been long-term marital conflict and impending divorce which could cause retaliation. They needed to assess for undiagnosed mental illness in the parents. The FBI needed to make assessments so they can determine what happened to Kyron. If the family is told they must all sit on the couch for 24 hours/day until the child is found, they can’t make the necessary accurate assessments.

Here are other research articles about filicide in case you want to read through them.

http://people.uncw.edu/bruce/hon%20210/pdfs/infanticide.pdf

http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q...j0vFQr&sig=AHIEtbRtLgtlwp1CDI6-A2Sley5kMM04DA

http://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&q...Gt7bjr&sig=AHIEtbTjie1dZNJsmB4trw-zU3qkrpF6sg

http://www.unh.edu/sociology/media/pdfs-journal2009/1-Barthell-Shelton2009.pdf

http://www.psy.cmu.edu/~rakison/dalywilson.pdf

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Ooooops...Please forgive me. With whom was I talking? I'll go look it up. (Found it. It was BeanE.)

I think they must have a suspect. How else can they call it an isolated incident? I think they know who they believe harmed/killed Kyron and therefore do not think any sort of reenactment at the school would be needed, IMO. They put up reward hoping to gain additional evidence and/or leads to his body and will make an arrest when they feel they have their case put together. IMO.

cluciano63 said:

Even the knowledge that this day was coming, when official searching would halt, does not make it easier to accept. I am kind of startled that it ended so abruptly and not continued through the end of today to close out the weekend, but perhaps they knew it was futile and wanted to let volunteers get back home before the new week starts.

The fact that they have been saying for several days that this was a isolated event leads me to believe that this was not a stranger or even a teacher, school employee, etc...as those types of POI's would not have been only a danger to Kyron. I think they are focusing on someone closer to his life circle. And the fact that they have put up a reward tells me that they are hoping to recover Kyron's body, and have not obtained a confession. I think maybe some video surfaced over the weekend that shows Kyron leaving the area in a vehicle-this would cause them to stop searching near the school.

I hope now that this case moves swiftly forward so that the community can gain some sense of peace and comfort. It it draining for us here and must be much more so for those nearby. JMO

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It is hard to discern what LE actually means when they use the wordage of "isolated event." I have seen it used by other LE in other cases and the kidnapper/ murderer turned out to be a complete stranger. Sara Walker's case is one example yet when they did finally arrest the person who murdered her he did not know her at all. I think sometimes its to calm the fears of the community.

Perhaps LE in this case is using it because only Kyron was taken. The odds would be astronomical if the same perp came back to the same school and took another child. Imo, that would be unheard of with all the police presence there.

I have also seen them infer that the victims were targeted leaving the impression that it was someone known to the victims yet when the murderer was finally captured they did not know their victims at all.

So, imo, yes it can be a complete stranger. We like to think our children wouldn't go with a stranger but sadly that is not true all the time even though they have been taught at home and school about stranger danger. Just look at the various shows we have seen on TV that shows how easily a stranger can take a young child's hand and walk away with them. Oprah has had such shows. All the perp had to do is say is "your mommy has been hurt in a car wreck and told me to come get you and we have to leave now." (example)

Little children are still trusting of adults and want to please them especially if Kyron encountered such an adult at school. I think Kyron had a good home life and wasnt fearful of adults so if one asked him to help him I believe Kyron would do it thinking there was no harm.

I also believe it is a possibility that whomever did this was someone Kyron was comfortable seeing around his school but I am leaning more to a stranger who came into town the day before the adduction or maybe even sooner and sized up the best way to get in and out of the school and which route to take once leaving.

IMO

Bern said:

I keep seeing post about someone should have seen it coming and we will be shocked at who it is or something to that effect.

I missed something here. Is there a history of abuse, or some kind of motive I am not getting? Or am I reading this wrong and you think it is someone other than family? I try to look at Motive, Opportunity, and Means. Right now the only motive I see if this is a kidnapping or murder would be a SO. Opportunity was there at the busy school, and means, all you need was a good line, or lure and a car, possibly something to knock a kid out and put them in the trunk of a car, given there is no videos on the school or parking lot.

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BBM
THANK YOU for reminding me of the core tenets of crime investigation. That helps me so much in narrowing our focus.
IMHO, the questions we should be sleuthing are:
Who had the most OPPORTUNITY to cause the disappearance of Kyron?
What are the most likely MEANS they would have had to do it?

And the biggest mystery in my mind, and I believe the one that will hold the key answer in explaining what happened....
What possible MOTIVE would have caused such a disappearance to take place?

Seems to me if we are about sleuthing here, searching out the answers to MEANS MOTIVE OPPORTUNITY would be the way to do it.

anyoldtime48 said:

Actually, his full answer was "Quit asking me questions about the investigation" rather than anything specifically relating to potential kidnapping charges. I understand their testiness when they've told the media, likely repeatedly, that they cannot answer questions about an ongoing investigation, and yet the media keeps going back to anyone in uniform and trying -- which is of course the media's job.

Tired children on both sides of that aisle, and we ALL want Kyron found and answers!

Click to expand...

They updated and changed the article, since I posted that.

pufnstuf said:

I agree, Bee. I think that the sheriff may have been so somber today because some kind of evidence was found this morning.

JMO

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Yep Puf, that is exactly the description: Somber. So different from the last time the family spoke of not giving up hope.

this person knew the school had no surveillance also. i bet most of the parents didn't even know that.

BODY FLOAT INFORMATION

WATER TEMPERATURE / DAYS TO SURFACE:

40 degrees 14-20 days
50 degrees 10-14 days
60 degrees 7-10 days
70 degrees 3-7 days
80 degrees 1-2 days

1. Victims that have drowned in 30-40 degree water will not surface until
water warms.

2. Victims that are 100 feet or deeper may not surface at all due to the
combination of pressure and temperature.

VARIABLES THAT AFFECT FLOAT TIME

1. When and What food was last consumed (foods high in carbohydrates:
beer, soft drinks, hot dogs, potato chips) produce gases faster.

2. Medications, drugs, or alcohol.

3. Body composition – skinny, muscular, obese. (fat float quicker).

4. Age, weight, and height of victim.

5. Activity at the time of drowning (hunting, fishing, swimming, skiing).

6. Suicidal drowning – self weighting, stacked clothing.

7. Type and layers of clothing worn including footwear (heavier winter
clothing of hip boots).

8. Gases produced in the intestinal tract are: methane, hydrogen sulfide, and
carbon dioxide. These gases are soluble in water and compressible.

9. Any visible body wounds – previous or after drowning?

10. Type of water: River, Quarry, Lake, Pond, Freshwater, Saltwater?

11. Bottom temperature – currents, spring fed, stagnate, polluted water
presents different problems for determining bacteria in intestinal tract.

12. Pressure exerted holding victim down varies with depth of water.

13. Any debris – stumps, trees, fence, fishing line that could cause
entanglement. Water sheds and most State Parks are flooded farm land.

14. Adult men and women on the bottom weigh about 6-15 lbs. negative.
Children weigh less and may not sink unless intentionally weighted. Some
kids will float face up.

15. Victims who are dead before they enter the water will not sink and float.
We had a victim travel 175 miles in 3 days who was thrown in the river
from a motorcycle accident.

16. Most adult victims will float face down due to the weight of arms and legs. They float just like you recover a victim from the bottom face down.

http://www.twinquarries.com/nurri/index.htm

Im catching up so please accept my apologies if already posted. Im looking at the wonderful maps you guys made in a second...I know they had previously asked for video but here are more specific locations. Why so many northwests?? Do they possibly know which way a possible POI may go or are these simple adjacent tot he school?

As part of the investigation, the Multnomah County Sheriff's Office is requesting surveillance video from nearby storefronts, private homes, security cameras or any other surveillance recording from June 3 and June 4. They are specifically looking for video of vehicular traffic from the following locations:

•Northwest Cornelius Pass Road
•Northwest Germantown Road
•Northwest Logie Trail Road
•Northwest Rocky Point Road
•Northwest Skyline Road
•Northwest 185th Avenue
•Northwest West Union Road
•Northwest Springville Road
•Bethany Boulevard
•Northwest Springville Road
•Northwest Newberry Road
•Northwest McNamee Road
•Highway 30 from Northwest Rock Point to Germantown Road
•Northwest Kaiser Road
•Northwest Thompson Road
•Northwest Laidlaw Road
Anyone with video of those areas is asked to contact the sheriff's office tip line at (503) 261-2847. Leave your name, contact information and identify the specific location or street address of the video footage.

pufnstuf said:

June 15 last year, a body washed up on the shore of the Columbia... had been in the water for a week. Just posting this for time-frame purposes--in re the discussion we were having in the last thread about how long it would take.

http://www.oregonlive.com/news/index.ssf/2009/06/body_found_on_shore_of_columbi.html

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I don't have a link for you. Trying to find one. But I've heard over and over again from LE, SAR and ME's that 10 days give or take a few is when bodies will POP up. This is a based on how long it takes for body gasses to form. Colder weather will delay this and Hotter weather will speed it up. A body that doesn't surface for a very very long time was was caught on something or weighed down.

RubyRed said:

They updated and changed the article, since I posted that.

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RubyRed's version is what was posted when I read the article, too.

Thanks Calliope for saving me from having to hunt down a link!

People keep saying that Kyron would not have wandered off from school on his own, that he knew about "stranger danger," etc.

But I'm old enough to remember the Art Linkletter show. He had a very popular, very funny schtick where he interviewed kids. Usually between four and eight years old. One of his surefire questions was to ask a kid "what did your parents tell you not to say on the show today?" Invariably, the kid would come out with something embarrassing but hilarious.

The underlying point being that what adults think they are teaching their children is not always the same as what the child learns. Children under fifteen aren't just short ignorant adults; they think in ways that can be very different from adults. When Art Linkletter asked them what their parents told them not to say, those children were not defying their parents. It was just that the rules about what to say had become too intricate for a child to negotiate successfully.

The magic of children is that you really don't ever know what they will do or say next. That's also the frustrating thing about them.

RubyRed said:

Kyron’s Case and the Blame Game

Prior to recently, the case really didn’t center on the family. However now many people – perhaps rightly so, perhaps wrongly so – are focusing their skepticism on the stepmother. For instance, a photograph of Kyron was taken just before he went missing.

On the other hand, the photograph was taken at a science fair. It’s not that unheard of for parents to take pictures of their children at these types of events.

Others are blaming the school for the boy’s disappearance. How could a boy go missing from the school’s grounds without anyone noticing? Why weren’t the parents notified that he wasn’t at school? Why was it only after the boy didn’t return home that the family was alarmed?

http://cnmnewsnetwork.com/120463/kyron-horman-missing-kyrons-case-and-the-blame-game/

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I lay some blame at the school. I do not doubt teachers and staff members are all dedicated educators but the fact remains they failed to follow protocol. And they knew they didn't have an automatic dialing system in place for absenteeism. High Schoolers skip all the time, but this is an elementary school. From homeroom teacher (be it substitute or not), to the rest of his classes, none of his teachers notified anybody except just marking him for being absent that day. Lastly they shouldn't even have an automatic dialing system, it should be a real live person calling the parents anyways...

I'm giving the SM the benefit of the doubt. I'm following the 'Forensic Astrology' thread with curiousity. How come there isn't a 'Forensic Psychic' thread???

And where's my official Websleuths welcome anyhoo? I registered because I got sick and tired of personal attacks, posts getting deleted at local newspaper & tv website postings. I need a hug!

warning, very graphic description of drowning/float and resurfacing:

http://www.dundee.ac.uk/forensicmedicine/notes/water.pdf

ralph_wiggum said:

I lay some blame at the school. I do not doubt teachers and staff members are all dedicated educators but the fact remains they failed to follow protocol. And they knew they didn't have an automatic dialing system in place for absenteeism. High Schoolers skip all the time, but this is an elementary school. From homeroom teacher (be it substitute or not), to the rest of his classes, none of his teachers notified anybody except just marking him for being absent that day. Lastly they shouldn't even have an automatic dialing system, it should be a real live person calling the parents anyways...

I'm giving the SM the benefit of the doubt. I'm following the 'Forensic Astrology' thread with curiousity. How come there isn't a 'Forensic Psychic' thread???

And where's my official Websleuths welcome anyhoo? I registered because I got sick and tired of personal attacks, posts getting deleted at local newspaper & tv website postings. I need a hug!

Click to expand...

:hug: :hug:

((((((awwww Ralph)))))) Welcome for sure!

pufnstuf said:

Map of search area enlarged by Mamaeb (thanks!)... I added locations to it.

Click to expand...

still catching up... I actually took a break to do laundry finally


thanks for that pic... for some reason, the way my brain works, I just looked at the pics I had with no idea what was on them I was hoping someone would see more on them

Calliope said:

BODY FLOAT INFORMATION

WATER TEMPERATURE / DAYS TO SURFACE:

40 degrees 14-20 days
50 degrees 10-14 days
60 degrees 7-10 days
70 degrees 3-7 days
80 degrees 1-2 days

1. Victims that have drowned in 30-40 degree water will not surface until
water warms.

2. Victims that are 100 feet or deeper may not surface at all due to the
combination of pressure and temperature.

VARIABLES THAT AFFECT FLOAT TIME

1. When and What food was last consumed (foods high in carbohydrates:
beer, soft drinks, hot dogs, potato chips) produce gases faster.

2. Medications, drugs, or alcohol.

3. Body composition – skinny, muscular, obese. (fat float quicker).

4. Age, weight, and height of victim.

5. Activity at the time of drowning (hunting, fishing, swimming, skiing).

6. Suicidal drowning – self weighting, stacked clothing.

7. Type and layers of clothing worn including footwear (heavier winter
clothing of hip boots).

8. Gases produced in the intestinal tract are: methane, hydrogen sulfide, and
carbon dioxide. These gases are soluble in water and compressible.

9. Any visible body wounds – previous or after drowning?

10. Type of water: River, Quarry, Lake, Pond, Freshwater, Saltwater?

11. Bottom temperature – currents, spring fed, stagnate, polluted water
presents different problems for determining bacteria in intestinal tract.

12. Pressure exerted holding victim down varies with depth of water.

13. Any debris – stumps, trees, fence, fishing line that could cause
entanglement. Water sheds and most State Parks are flooded farm land.

14. Adult men and women on the bottom weigh about 6-15 lbs. negative.
Children weigh less and may not sink unless intentionally weighted. Some
kids will float face up.

15. Victims who are dead before they enter the water will not sink and float.
We had a victim travel 175 miles in 3 days who was thrown in the river
from a motorcycle accident.

16. Most adult victims will float face down due to the weight of arms and legs. They float just like you recover a victim from the bottom face down.

http://www.twinquarries.com/nurri/index.htm

Click to expand...

This is a bit ambiguous to me. Does this mean they will not sink and then, eventually, float? Or do you think it was simply a typo? This is where I found the actual info: http://www.twinquarries.com/nurri/body_float_info.pdf

Great info.