I keep coming back to the initial problem of Brad's explanation as to where Nancy went that morning. I call it the "original lie".
He said she went running with her friend CC. He states he knew this because Nancy told him that.
Nancy did not go running with CC, nor did she actually have plans to. These are the possibilities with regard to Nancy's alleged statement (which is heresay but admissible as an exception, but not for the truth of its contents):
(1) Brad was lying (to Nancy's friends, the police and those searching)
(2) Brad was mistaken
(3) Nancy was lying (to Brad)
(4) Nancy was mistaken
(5) Nancy changed her mind
Lets take these in reverse order.
(5) is not possible because Nancy did not tell either CC or her painting friend of her change in plans. If she wanted to go running with CC on short notice, certainly CC would have at least received a call from Nancy. It did not happen. (5) is excluded.
For (4) to be possible, it means Nancy was confused as to her plans that morning. It means Nancy forgot or misunderstood what she had planned that morning. It would also mean that she somehow thought she made a plan with her friend CC, and the evidence is clear from her friend that no such plan existed. Nancy is normally intelligent or better and had made the painting plans only a day earlier. She would not have forgotten or have been mistaken. (4) is not possible.
As for (3), this raises what I call the _________ sort of argument (insert particular poster in the blank... no offense intended.). Nancy was having an affair, Nancy lied to Brad to cover up what she was really doing. Whether or not Nancy was having an affair -- and keeping in mind it is possible -- on this fateful morning we can be certain she did not intend to meet her lover assuming one existed (and I don't believe one did exist at this time). She made a plan with her friend to paint. She did not call that friend to cancel. Brad even bought a plastic sheet and other supplies for Nancy to paint with. She did not call CC to go running. She was not lying about her intention to go painting Saturday morning. (3) can also be discarded as a possibility.
Lets talk about (2). Brad was asked by Nancy's friends where she was. This was on the same day, within hours of her supposedly doing it. Brad volunteered she was running with CC. Since Brad gave this information voluntarily, and within hours of her allegedly doing it, we know he was not mistaken. It is not possible he mistakenly believed Nancy was running with CC, because he claims that is what Nancy told him. He is normally intelligent or better and would not have made such a mistake. (2) is excluded.
This leaves (1), the only possibility. Brad lied about this. Why would Brad lie about Nancy telling him he went running with CC? We know Nancy was dead by this time. This original lie is damning and to me demonstrates clearly Brad is guilty beyond a reasonable doubt. There is no reason for him to lie about this unless he's trying to cover up what we know already happened.
I put this out there and am open minded enough to consider counter-arguments, but I don't just think he did it, I think its been proven.
