My opinions only, no facts here:
OK, here is my personal timeline for Nov. 17th, 2011 when Michelle Parker disappeared to the early morning of the 18th. My timeline borrows from SmoothOperator, but SmoothOperator is not responsible for any of my statements or misstatements! This also uses information from the map of TexasLil, several other posters’ timelines on Websleuths, from other crime blogs, and incorporates portions of various theories (including S. Almaguer), as well as the established newspaper reports. To the mods: there are no links or accusations in this post. Just dry details, dry discussion, and some thought-provoking statements.
The more interpretive and/or arguable entries or unverified statements are bracketed by question marks (one question mark at the beginning and one at the end of the word string). I am not questioning who is- and who is not telling the truth, but what seems to be more likely vs. less likely. Remember!!!- words or sentences BRACKETED by question marks are those which are the least reliable in my opinion. The term “house” refers to a domicile of any type, including a condo or apartment. The following accounts do not include some problematic times that were reported (picking up the twins as late as 3:15 PM from daycare or arriving at the ex-boyfriend’s house as late as 4:00 PM), but does include the possibility that Michelle’s Hummer spent 10 minutes or longer at the ex-boyfriend’s house.________________________________________
[Morning]: Michelle, probably staying with her parents (?or living with her sister or living in her own house?) in Geneva, gets up. She may have put on her ‘cross necklace’. It is not known if this necklace was of significant monetary value, but this detail could become important if this case takes an unexpected twist. ?This piece of jewelry may yet turn up and if it does- be skeptical of the circumstances unless it is with Michelle.?
[Morning]: Michelle sees her older son off to school. The older son is 11, and from a relationship with another man who is previous to the ‘ex-boyfriend’ of this timeline. The younger (3 year old) twins are from the relationship between Michelle and the ex-boyfriend. There is also a third man, who is Michelle’s current boyfriend.
[Morning]: Michelle or maybe her mother or sister takes the twins to a daycare center, either in Geneva or in Oviedo. Oviedo seems to be the favored location for the daycare center. This makes even more sense, if the mother/sister dropped the twins off in Oviedo on the way to the family beauty salon in Oviedo, while Michelle was still at home. This family beauty salon is called StrandZ Salon, weekday hours are 10:00 AM to 8:00 PM, but additional hours may be reserved by appointment. I believe it is owned/run by Michelle’s mother and sister.
[Morning]: Michelle has coffee with her current boyfriend at some location in Geneva or Oviedo, possibly at her parents’ house.
[9:21 AM]: Michelle sends a text message to her sister consisting of two words, concerning a hair treatment (keratin) she (Michelle) wants that day.
[9:42 AM]: A short series of phone texts are transacted between Michelle and her sister, setting up an 11:30 AM reservation for Michelle’s hair treatment (presumably at their family’s salon, since this salon does advertise a keratin treatment).
[10:20 AM]: text from Michelle to her sister implies that she (Michelle) is going shopping for shoes with their mother. This includes a cryptic text string from Michelle (“I'll come by n grab it & do it") ?that might refer to her planning to come by the salon for her keratin hair treatment? Notably, this part of the timeline seems to imply that Michelle’s mother could still have been at home with Michelle and Michelle's sister was now at the salon.
[11:30 AM]: ?Michelle gets her keratin hair conditioning treatment at the family’s salon.? It seems odd that whether Michelle showed up and got the keratin treatment is not explicitly stated. What happened to this appointment? Did it ever occur?
[after 11:30 AM until awhile before 2:30 PM]: Michelle’s activities during this time period are not known to me. ?A simple possibility is that Michelle ended up shopping longer with her mother than expected, which would fill up some of this time period and account for why the 11:30 AM appointment was never mentioned further.?
[2:00 PM]: The TV Court episode involving Michelle and her ex-boyfriend airs. Michelle’s location at this time is uncertain and it is not known if she watched this episode. It is also not known if her ex-boyfriend saw the episode, although that seems likely. What is curious, concerning those who think that the ex-boyfriend was enraged by the televised court appearance, it has been said that- ?on his Facebook site (the day before Michelle’s disappearance) he urged people to watch and tape the show. However, the editing of the episode could have made it appear more negative towards him than he envisioned or remembered. I understand (and agree) that to many observers the disappearance of Michelle appears to have been planned in advance, but if it is an inside job- why pick the day the TV Court episode was aired to carry out the plan.?
[before 2:30 PM]: Michelle arrives at her mother’s salon in Oviedo. Note that this is not the same time as the keratin hair treatment appointment- which should have already occurred at 11:30 AM. This appears to have been only a social visit.
[2:30 PM]: Michelle leaves her mother’s salon in Oviedo to pick up her twins. Before leaving the salon, ?she may have told her sister she was going to drop the twins off at the ex-boyfriend’s house and go home to take a nap before going to work.?
[around 2:45 PM]: Michelle picks up her twins from a daycare center, located either in Oviedo or Geneva. As stated earlier, some people suggest Oviedo is the more likely location for the daycare center. Michelle is driving a black Hummer with GLOW decals that advertise her business. Michelle is a GLOW Mobile Spray Tanning Consultant; apparently she goes to customers’ houses and spray-applies a fake tan. The family’s StrandZ Salon also offers this treatment. ?The more inquisitive conspiracy buffs might ask- how many witnesses in total can account for Michelle anytime after leaving the daycare center or at least prove that she was under her own power.? Think about that.
[about 2:54 PM]: ?Michelle’s Hummer with a distinctive GLOW decal on the rear window is possibly spotted going east on 408 and making a north turn onto Alafaya.? This was originally a 4:00 PM sighting by Ironhorse, but I believe the toll records indicate it is this earlier time (Ironhorse can correct me if I am wrong). Note that the time of this sighting (if it is Michelle’s Hummer) may require that Michelle picked the twins up from daycare before 2:45 PM, and also that she was taking an unexpected route (to avoid tolls, make a quick stop somewhere, etc.). There was a suggestion that ?this stop could have been at the Waterford Shopping Center?, but this may magnify the time crunch to arrive at her ex-boyfriend’s house within the generally-accepted timeline.
[3:15 PM]: Michelle’s current boyfriend receives a text from her, concerning only superfluous chit-chat. He replies back with some cute symbols.
[3:18 PM]: Michelle’s Hummer (it is not known to me that Michelle was factually seen) arrives at her ex-boyfriend’s house to drop off the twins (neighbor’s surveillance camera). ?There is also a mention of a white van and tan Impala at this time, but this may be referring to the 4:25 to 4:26 PM time interval.? Note that the time span between 2:45 and 3:18 PM for the trip from daycare to her ex-boyfriend’s house might REQUIRE that the daycare center is located in Oviedo near the family salon, since it could take 10 to 20 minutes just to drive from the family salon in Oviedo back to a daycare center in Geneva, let alone account for the additional time then required to travel south to the ex-boyfriend’s house in concordance with the generally-accepted timeline.
[sometime after 3:15 PM]: ?Michelle’s current boyfriend texts Michelle but gets no response.? Not fully verified.
[3:28 PM]: This is my time. This would be the theoretical time that Michelle left her ex-boyfriend’s house (?stayed and talked for 10 minutes?), but it is not known to the general public if she left at this time. This is one of the details that the police may know for sure.
[3:30 PM]: Michelle’s older son arrives home from school (presumably in Geneva).
[just after 3:30 PM to 4:27 PM]: This period is mentioned by me because in my opinion it represents the time-span during which the evidence begins to suggest that all is not well with Michelle.
[just after 3:30 PM]: Michelle’s son ?calls his mother and then Michelle’s mother? (his grandmother) at the salon to see if Michelle is there. Note that IF Michelle was using a regular schedule (3:18 PM drop-off of twins across town), the older son should not have expected his mom to be home yet, but was just trying to let her know he was home safe as per a daily safety schedule. This implies the (theoretical) possibility that Michelle’s older son tried to call his mother (Michelle) first but received no answer, and then called the family’s salon, second. There is also the additional possibility that the ?first call from the older son to the salon was actually at 6:50 PM? (see an entry later on in this timeline).
[????]: ?Michelle’s mother or Michelle’s brother calls the ex-boyfriend to see where Michelle is? Unverified, but mentioned in a few places.
[4:00 PM?]: ?A Hummer is spotted at the intersection of Aloma Ave. and South Semoran Blvd.? This sighting is considered somewhat apocryphal and possibly irrelevant to the case, unless and until the exact time of the sighting and what was seen is reported.
[minutes before 4:26 PM]: Michelle’s brother sends a 3-way text to Michelle (and her mother and sister), saying he needs a ride and asking their whereabouts. This event is followed up by an entry later in my timeline. To me, it seems that the brother is already suspicious and this is actually a test message to make sure that Michelle is OK.
[4:00 PM to 4:07 PM]: ?This is when the ex-boyfriend would have left his house to take the twins to his parents’ house (to get there by 4:30].?
[4:25 to 4:26 PM]: A white panel van does a u-turn and parks near the ex-boyfriend’s house (neighbor’s surveillance video).
[4:26 PM-ish?]: The neighbor of the ex-boyfriend who has the surveillance camera arrives home. Some timelines place the neighbor as arriving anywhere between 3:18 PM and 4:25 PM, but I favor that he arrived near the end of this span of time. ?It is implied that Michelle’s Hummer is nowhere to be seen by the neighbor at this time or at least that the neighbor saw nothing extraordinary or suspicious.?
[4:26 PM]: Michelle’s brother receives one reply to his 3-way text, and only from Michelle’s phone- a one-word reply- “Waterford”. Reports claim that pings from Michelle’s phone show that Michelle’s mobile device could not have been in Waterford at this time. It seems ironic that only Michelle’s phone responded to the brother’s inquiry and not his mother or sister.
[4:27 to 4:30 PM]: ?The ex-boyfriend arrives at his parents’ house with the twins and stays until 10:30 PM or later? (the 10:30 PM time shows up in some posts). ?Someone (possibly the ex-boyfriend’s mother or father and a possible independent mystery witness) claims that the ex-boyfriend did indeed arrive at his parents' house with the twins around 4:30 PM.? It is not known to me what vehicle the ex-boyfriend was driving (I know he is supposed to have a truck, but I do not factually know what vehicle he drove to his parents’ house).
[after 4:30]: Michelle’s ?phone pings near the intersection of West Sand Lake Road and South Orange Ave?. This is somewhat close to the Nela Bridge where Michelle’s phone was reported to have been found. I am not fully clear about this ping event; is this definitely separate and distinct from the phone power-down event described in an entry below?
[4:40 PM]: A dark grey or black hummer is seen on surveillance video in the ex-boyfriend’s neighborhood. This is the ‘Grey Hummer” of various reports. It is established that this must be a different Hummer than the one Michelle drives. Isolated reports of a “5:40 PM” Hummer may actually refer to this earlier event.
[4:30 PM-5:15 PM]: A possible Hummer sighting is reported. This Hummer was turning left from South Orange Blossom Trail onto West Sand Lake Road. The Florida Mall/MAC Store is near here. Unfortunately, the direction the Hummer was moving on OBT before executing the turn seems to not be stated. ?I infer the vehicle was traveling south and turned east.? This sighting plays into the rumor that Michelle was going to shop at the MAC store near this location.
[5:17 PM]: White van (may or may not be the same one described in the earlier entry) and an exiting dark SUV of undetermined importance are seen near ex-boyfriends house (neighbor’s surveillance camera). Some interpret the SUV images as ?showing Michelle’s altered Hummer (missing tire cover, decals, and rim simulators on the wheels) leaving the ex-boyfriend’s house.? But there is also reasonable evidence that this is not Michelle’s hummer. Note that there is a rumor that ?the camera times were not corrected for Daylight Savings.? But if this latter rumor were true, Michelle’s Hummer would have arrived at the ex-boyfriend’s house at 2:18! So this rumor about Daylight Savings Time seems somewhat unlikely.
[6:50 PM]: Michelle’s older son calls the family salon and speaks with Michelle’s sister about whether his mother is there. He mentions that his mother has not arrived home. Michelle’s son then calls the bar where Michelle works and they told him that they would let him know when Michelle arrived. Obviously, this event would alarm Michelle’s family and confirm their suspicions that something is wrong.
[6:53 PM]: Michelle’s sister texts Michelle’s phone, asking for an immediate response. The lack of even a text response (vs. the 4:26 PM call), may be significant to this case.
[7:20 PM]: Employees at the bar where Michelle works notified her family that she had not shown up (she usually was there fairly early, ten or so minutes before her 7:30 PM shift started).
[7:20 PM]: Michelle’s family notified the authorities that Michelle was missing.
[7:20 PM to ???]: This time-span may include Michelle’s family requesting that the police go by the ex-boyfriend’s house, as well as Michelle’s family trying to make phone contact with the ex-boyfriend. ?Some bloggers place the attempted contacts with the ex-boyfriend at 6:00 PM to 7:00 PM, with successful contact after 7:00 PM.? Eventually, Michelle’s mother is able to contact the ex-boyfriend’s mother, who was not able to produce the ex-boyfriend at that time. This detail may be significant since the ex-boyfriend should have been at his parents’ house with the twins at this time (although it is possible that the ex-boyfriend’s mother simply was not at her house yet). During this phone call, Michelle’s mother requests to have the ex-boyfriend contact her or another Michelle family member.
[after 7:20 PM? and before 8:00 PM?]: ?The ex-boyfriend calls Michelle’s mother (voice contact or text?; landline or cell?) and says ?Michelle and the twins arrived at his house at 4:00PM, Michelle stayed for 10 minutes, and then left to go shopping.? Note the time discrepancy for Michelle’s arrival (4:00 PM vs. more official 3:18 PM time), but remember that we cannot be sure this is what the ex-boyfriend said. The ex-boyfriend’s purported conversation does play into the slim possibility that Michelle was going to the Florida Mall/MAC store (see the 4:30-5:15 PM entry about the Hummer sighting, above).
[8:00 PM-8:01 PM]: Michelle’s phone powers down/gives its last ping (remember that Michelle’s phone could have been placed at its ultimate discovery site anytime after the power-down event and before its discovery by law enforcement). The general location of this power-down is the intersection of South Orange Blossom Road and West Lancaster Road. The later close-by discovery of Michelle’s phone near the ?south? Nela Bridge in Bell Isle and the mention in at least one report that the ?phone was underwater?, raises the possibility that the phone went dead when tossed into the lake around 8 PM. However, Nela Bridge may be too far away from the power-down location triangulated by the cell towers and furthermore-other reports say the phone was found in the ?weedline with the water? (meaning that the phone could still be working for awhile after being tossed). Earlier reports about the phone’s discovery location mentioned ?Hoffner Bridge?. The Hoffner Bridge location seems discredited for now, having been based upon initial field news reports from the wrong bridge.
[8:00 PM-ish]: ?Police do a drive-by of the ex-boyfriend’s place at the request of Michelle’s family and do not see Michelle or her Hummer.? Not verified, but this rumor has not gone away.
[9:00 PM to 10:00 PM]: Based upon the theories of at least one poster is the possibility that ?the ex-boyfriend may have arrived back at his house during this time interval?, but only if the 10:00-11:08 and 11:00-11:08 entries below have any merit. If the ex-boyfriend was at his parents’ house until 10:30 PM or later, then this entry and the 10:00-11:08 and 11:00-11:08 entries probably become moot.
[10:30 PM]: A woman notices a black Hummer parked near an apartment complex on Walden Circle. ?It seems possible that this Hummer could have been placed here at any time after dusk or dark; the earliest being after 6:00 PM.? If the Hummer went to Walden Circle in broad daylight, there would probably be additional sightings of the Hummer on its way to Walden Circle. A strange rumor is that- ?the same Hummer with decals had been seen parked at the Walden Circle location several times over the previous month?.
[10:00 PM to 11:08 PM]: ?This is the time span during which the ex-boyfriend’s house may have been walked-through by law enforcement on the 17th. Most sources say that this actually occurred on the evening of the 18th (the day after Michelle’s disappearance), occurred after or near-dark, and was a full search.? See below entry for further clarification about why the search on the 17th is reported.
[11:00 PM to 11:08 PM]: ?The police have left the ex-boyfriend’s house and the ex-boyfriend purportedly makes an online Facebook post that his childrens’ mother is missing and that the police came by his house. This Facebook post was from a computer on the 17th, and could have originated from the ex-boyfriend’s house or from his parents’ house or elsewhere.? This single Facebook post appears to be the sole source for the rumor of a search of the ex-boyfriend’s house on the 17th. Independent verification would be required. However, the physical location that this Facebook post on the 17th was made from could be important to the case.
[12:00 AM to 12:30 AM on the 18th]: A law enforcement officer observes Michelle’s black Hummer during ?routine? patrol. The Hummer is now lacking the GLOW decals from its windows. In a city the size of Orlando, it seems remarkable that Michelle’s Hummer was located this quickly. ?There may be more to this discovery than meets the eye. Some reports say Michelle’s purse was in the Hummer. The keys are said to have been removed.? A few observers point out that if the keys were removed, it means that whoever placed the Hummer there did not want it stolen. Obviously, if it turns out that Michelle’s purse, etc. were in the Hummer and the keys were not, something is incongruent.