spoiledmom
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If the cartel did take Isa as some sort of payment, it wasn't to look after her. It was to make money off her. I hope this isn't the case.
AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #14
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If the cartel did take Isa as some sort of payment, it wasn't to look after her. It was to make money off her. I hope this isn't the case.
Cortne
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Hugs.
Donjeta
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This is an interesting article from the FBI LE Bulletin about a study that was done on homicide 911 calls, regarding differences between guilty callers and innocent callers.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2194/is_6_77/ai_n27504386/
It's based on this research:
Homicide Studies 2009; 13; 69-93
Tracy Harpster, Susan H. Adams and John P. Jarvis
Analyzing 911 Homicide Calls for Indicators of Guilt or Innocence: An Exploratory Analysis
Some examples here:
http://kledispatches.ky.gov/Documents/1011_Revealing_Murder.pdf
The following are listed as indicators of potential innocence in their study of callers reporting homicide:
-Immediacy, including early pleas for help, pleas for help for the victim only, urgency of plea, demanding plea, voice modulation, verbal reaction of caller before the 911 dispatcher’s first cue
-accuracy, including self-correction
-validity, meaning plea for help
Indicators of potential guilt include:
-Evasion, including resistance in answering, huh factor, repetition, conflicting facts
-extraneous information
-Distancing measures, including acceptance of death (not applicable here because this call does not report a homicide victim), possession of a problem, inappropriate politeness, insulting or blaming victim, plea for caller only and minimizing their own involvement before, after or during the event.
(It's just statistically more likely one way or another, not completely exclusive.)
Now, my random observations looking at father's call
http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/18395759/father-to-911-she-was-abducted-from-my-house
there is no urgency whatsoever, not in the words, not in the tone. There are no pleas for help for Isabel, in fact he never says what kind of help is wanted. He just reports that he needs to report an incident (it's a problem that he possesses , not a plea for help for Isabel) and leaves it completely up to them if they want to investigate or find her or write it down or forgeddaboudit or what, he never says that they need the police here quick or please you need to find her fast she's only six years old.
http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/18395708/celis-911-call-someone-broke-in-and-grabbed-her
Contrast that with the son:
He repeats his plea for urgent help after he's already been told the officers are on the way.
Also the mom asks for urgent help for her daughter, :
Voice modulation refers to the emotional aspect of the tone and he was not audibly upset based on what I could tell. He chuckles.
Accuracy, well, I dunno about that. He self corrects Isabel's spelling and says her height is different from what RC says her height is. (36-40 inches to 44-48 inches). Does he know? Why does he say, "I'm sorry", in the middle of reciting her birth date? Did he say the wrong month at first? T
Here we've got the huh factor, plus, he's not even thinking about Isabel any more. The dispatcher has to remind him about his missing child that he wanted to report.
Is there conflicting information? Was there someone else with him when he went to wake Isabel up? He changes the pronoun from we to I in the middle. It's not the sons apparently if he only woke them up after noticing Isabel was gone.
Maybe it's just me but I find it a little odd that he takes the time to spell out the middle initial, and in code words too. I think I would either forget about the middle name or just state the whole name. Shorter and simpler imo. "Isabel Mercedes".
That bit falls under extraneous information imo. This would be his cue to think if they know or have seen someone who seems suspicious now but instead he recites his alibi. Would this be classified as minimizing his own involvement? He was sleeping and didn't hear a thing, and he didn't even notice the window being open, his son did.
He is polite imo. He says hello and I'm sorry, several times, and politely explains why he seems distracted at the end of the call. (it's Becky's fault).
There is no victim blaming but he appears to have an attitude toward mom.
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2194/is_6_77/ai_n27504386/
It's based on this research:
Homicide Studies 2009; 13; 69-93
Tracy Harpster, Susan H. Adams and John P. Jarvis
Analyzing 911 Homicide Calls for Indicators of Guilt or Innocence: An Exploratory Analysis
Some examples here:
http://kledispatches.ky.gov/Documents/1011_Revealing_Murder.pdf
The following are listed as indicators of potential innocence in their study of callers reporting homicide:
-Immediacy, including early pleas for help, pleas for help for the victim only, urgency of plea, demanding plea, voice modulation, verbal reaction of caller before the 911 dispatcher’s first cue
-accuracy, including self-correction
-validity, meaning plea for help
Indicators of potential guilt include:
-Evasion, including resistance in answering, huh factor, repetition, conflicting facts
-extraneous information
-Distancing measures, including acceptance of death (not applicable here because this call does not report a homicide victim), possession of a problem, inappropriate politeness, insulting or blaming victim, plea for caller only and minimizing their own involvement before, after or during the event.
(It's just statistically more likely one way or another, not completely exclusive.)
Now, my random observations looking at father's call
http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/18395759/father-to-911-she-was-abducted-from-my-house
there is no urgency whatsoever, not in the words, not in the tone. There are no pleas for help for Isabel, in fact he never says what kind of help is wanted. He just reports that he needs to report an incident (it's a problem that he possesses , not a plea for help for Isabel) and leaves it completely up to them if they want to investigate or find her or write it down or forgeddaboudit or what, he never says that they need the police here quick or please you need to find her fast she's only six years old.
http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/18395708/celis-911-call-someone-broke-in-and-grabbed-her
Contrast that with the son:
He says they need help fast and reports the address so they know to come to the right place right away. (I know we talked a lot about giving 14 year olds the responsibility of calling 911 but in this instance he did better than his father imo.)
He repeats his plea for urgent help after he's already been told the officers are on the way.
Also the mom asks for urgent help for her daughter, :
Voice modulation refers to the emotional aspect of the tone and he was not audibly upset based on what I could tell. He chuckles.
Accuracy, well, I dunno about that. He self corrects Isabel's spelling and says her height is different from what RC says her height is. (36-40 inches to 44-48 inches). Does he know? Why does he say, "I'm sorry", in the middle of reciting her birth date? Did he say the wrong month at first? T
Here we've got the huh factor, plus, he's not even thinking about Isabel any more. The dispatcher has to remind him about his missing child that he wanted to report.
Is there conflicting information? Was there someone else with him when he went to wake Isabel up? He changes the pronoun from we to I in the middle. It's not the sons apparently if he only woke them up after noticing Isabel was gone.
Maybe it's just me but I find it a little odd that he takes the time to spell out the middle initial, and in code words too. I think I would either forget about the middle name or just state the whole name. Shorter and simpler imo. "Isabel Mercedes".
That bit falls under extraneous information imo. This would be his cue to think if they know or have seen someone who seems suspicious now but instead he recites his alibi. Would this be classified as minimizing his own involvement? He was sleeping and didn't hear a thing, and he didn't even notice the window being open, his son did.
He is polite imo. He says hello and I'm sorry, several times, and politely explains why he seems distracted at the end of the call. (it's Becky's fault).
There is no victim blaming but he appears to have an attitude toward mom.
I'm at work so will make this quick. In following this case, I've had different ideas of what happened but nothing that I'm locked into. I can look at statistics to support a theory but as far as facts, haven't seen anything to sway me in any one direction.
Just for the heck of it, I looked at what has been reported from the angle that the cartel was involved. I do realize that we all can look at things and see them in a way to fit what we think happened.
From this "possible" cartel angle, I remember the released video of the group of potential witnesses. I recall the lone person that appears to be sneaking along. LE then says we had the wrong date and take the entire server just to be sure. What could be on the server that they didn't want anyone to see? Maybe something from the week before when the dogs were running around.
How did those dogs get out? Did a family member leave the gate open? Did someone come into the house at night and let them out while the family slept to show how easy it was to sneak in with everyone home?
Why did the family not speak right away? Was it because they were hiding something or were they afraid? Why were the interviews so carefully controlled? Was it the family being controlling or was it to control who had access to the family for another reason?
I'm not saying the cartel thing is what happened but looking at everything from that angle, I cannot rule it out. As someone said there's a first time for everything and there's always something that causes those statistics to not be 100%.
Just for the heck of it, I looked at what has been reported from the angle that the cartel was involved. I do realize that we all can look at things and see them in a way to fit what we think happened.
From this "possible" cartel angle, I remember the released video of the group of potential witnesses. I recall the lone person that appears to be sneaking along. LE then says we had the wrong date and take the entire server just to be sure. What could be on the server that they didn't want anyone to see? Maybe something from the week before when the dogs were running around.
How did those dogs get out? Did a family member leave the gate open? Did someone come into the house at night and let them out while the family slept to show how easy it was to sneak in with everyone home?
Why did the family not speak right away? Was it because they were hiding something or were they afraid? Why were the interviews so carefully controlled? Was it the family being controlling or was it to control who had access to the family for another reason?
I'm not saying the cartel thing is what happened but looking at everything from that angle, I cannot rule it out. As someone said there's a first time for everything and there's always something that causes those statistics to not be 100%.
Yes, I read the article. My experience with drug cartels is somewhat limited : my husband prosecuted a major cocaine trafficker (from Colombia). During the pre trial hearing the perp let it be known that he would kill me and my children if he went to jail. He had a boatload of money, and quite a bit of power,contacts,etc. in Miami,where we lived. LE believed he had the capability to do what he stated.
He never threatened to kidnap any of our children.
We stayed in our home, with some protection from LE.
He was quickly convicted,and went to jail ( for a looong time lol) Once he was in jail,he lost much of his power,and another creep took over....
Just some thoughts...and MOO
Many recent articles about the drug cartels ... their violence has ramped up, mostly towards each other, but they make money in all kinds of ways just like other organized crime (drugs, human trafficking, white collar crime, money laundering, extortion).
http://video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/47426255#47426255
I'm not saying this escalation has anything to do with Isa's case, I just think we don't realize how powerful organized crime is and how much it is effecting the US.
sherbetjello
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If Segio did do that, Isa wont be alive. That would be Sergio setting up Isa's death. This would totally work if the parents never came in front of the media asking for the media to keep Isa's face out there for the public.
I'm trying really hard to wrap my pea sized brain around some theories, but if this has even a slight of truth in it, I will lose hope Isa will be brought home.
The last few days have been good ones for all those hoping to find out what happened to Isabel Celis. First, the police have put a wedge between Isabel's parents, and have implicated Sergio by cutting him off from his sons. (I know, I know: the police have to say that CPS's involvement is the usual thing, but we all know that it is very dramatic for a parent to be separated from his kids and barred from all contact. It is not an exaggeration to say that some sex offenders are allowed supervised visits with their kids.)
Second, the 911 tapes have been released. In my opinion, the brother on the tape is completely sincere. He has no idea where his sister is and is distraught. It is very telling that, when asked what Isabel was wearing, he said something like, "Pajamas...pink...or green..." This is exactly what a fourteen year old would say. It's also significant that he assumed or knew Isabel was wearing pajamas.
Becky's 911 call is tough to read, so I'll leave it to the experts to discern whether she was telling the whole truth to 911.
The really good news is that reading the transcript of Sergio's 911 call and listening to the audio solves one mystery: Isabel was not abducted by a stranger. I would defer to trained experts on whether Becky Celis was genuinely afraid when she called 911, but I would question the intelligence of anyone who believed Sergio was. I'm not trying to be cute when I write this: a few weeks ago, I misplaced my father's car keys -- my father is obsessive about his car -- and I was more distressed when I called my sister about the missing car keys than Sergio was when he called 911 about his supposedly abducted little girl!
Now that Becky Celis has been forced to choose between being with Sergio and being with her husband (and has chosen her kids), she and her sons will have time to think about Isabel and about what really happened. I predict a precipitous drop in support for the Celises from the Tuscon community as more people listen to Sergio's 911 call.
So...the cheeze -- Sergio -- stands alone. I do not believe this will be another Lisa Irwin or Lyron Horman situation, where no arrests have been made or (probably) ever will be made. I think Sergio will be arrested and that Becky will turn against him and tell anything she knows.
Second, the 911 tapes have been released. In my opinion, the brother on the tape is completely sincere. He has no idea where his sister is and is distraught. It is very telling that, when asked what Isabel was wearing, he said something like, "Pajamas...pink...or green..." This is exactly what a fourteen year old would say. It's also significant that he assumed or knew Isabel was wearing pajamas.
Becky's 911 call is tough to read, so I'll leave it to the experts to discern whether she was telling the whole truth to 911.
The really good news is that reading the transcript of Sergio's 911 call and listening to the audio solves one mystery: Isabel was not abducted by a stranger. I would defer to trained experts on whether Becky Celis was genuinely afraid when she called 911, but I would question the intelligence of anyone who believed Sergio was. I'm not trying to be cute when I write this: a few weeks ago, I misplaced my father's car keys -- my father is obsessive about his car -- and I was more distressed when I called my sister about the missing car keys than Sergio was when he called 911 about his supposedly abducted little girl!
Now that Becky Celis has been forced to choose between being with Sergio and being with her husband (and has chosen her kids), she and her sons will have time to think about Isabel and about what really happened. I predict a precipitous drop in support for the Celises from the Tuscon community as more people listen to Sergio's 911 call.
So...the cheeze -- Sergio -- stands alone. I do not believe this will be another Lisa Irwin or Lyron Horman situation, where no arrests have been made or (probably) ever will be made. I think Sergio will be arrested and that Becky will turn against him and tell anything she knows.
spoiledmom
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I've been holding this info in for a while and after seeing your theories last night and the new reports about CPS getting involved, I couldn't hold it in any longer!
I am just hoping that LE is close. Cartel or not. It seems to me that they are.
Hatfield
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Thank you for clearing that up. The media needs to hire you. Good job.
Lava
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Because he knows what is going on. She may have been taken by someone else, but he is part of it.
I kinda favor the dingo did it scenario myself :giggle: No matter what we learn when the floodgates open with all of the details in Isabel's disappearance, there are sure to be many here who will be eating crow for one reason or another. I'm a gourmet cook and will be more than happy to prepare some tasty crow dishes for all to share. BTW, I love to cook with wine, and I sometimes even put it in the food :toastred:
BBM...O/T that reminds me of something I saw posted on FB the other day....
"
The other day someone told me I could make ice cubes with left over wine. I was confused.... What is left over wine?"..JMHO
nursebeeme
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LisaB
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Money making hoax?
Please explain how this works. Where is the money coming from and who's paying it? How is it that the FBI and TPD, among other groups, along with a national (likely international) audience are completely blindsided for a month and no one says a word or starts to be concerned with their own involvement? Or is the FBI and TPD "in" on this hoax too? Or is this the same person or person(s) who are secretly holding Kyron Horman and raising him over the last 2 years?
I better go get my tinfoil hat.
A lot of money has been donated. This money may be used for a reward fund, but was originally earmarked for search expenses. However, as there have been no public searches, and loacl comapnies have donated fliers and billboards, the money is basically there for them to use as needed to pay bills while out of work, etc.
A "hoax" might involve a kidnap for ransom by someone close to the family with knowledge of one or more family member, so the money could be collected and Isabel returned safely.
Donjeta
Adji Desir, missing from Florida
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I think they try to keep the caller on the pone just in case some useful information or incriminating tidbits come out. They called Ronald Cummings back when he hung up on 911.
I am not sure SC put his son up to calling 911. I think SC may have called first because near the end of his call the dispatcher says the son is trying to call, and because when the son calls he is told that the officers are already on their way.
Because it's hard to put the hinky aspects down to his personality when it seems to change. 911 call after just finding out that his daughter was abducted he is cool as a cucumber and even finds it funny and then he breaks down and is very emotional in a public statement that he had lots of time to prepare for. Just odd.
But there are plenty of parents who were thought hinky and turned out to be innocent, or at least guilty of something other than hurting their child.
LisaB
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LE has said they have NOTHING to indicate she might not be alive. A cadaver hit would at least force them to consider the possibility that she was dead. So I do not think a cadaver dog hit.
nursebeeme
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