Sorry but I do not buy it.I know this is a long post, but please carefully review the following information. I think you'll find some insights here, as I did.
Mountain_Kat, I think the antithesis is true. The killer was getting more comfortable, bold and confident, not more cautious. This is the case with many serial killers, and is usually why they eventually get caught. This is the premise of my analysis below, which is based on geographic profiling techniques.
Under the theory that he was getting bolder rather than more cautions, he would be operating closer and closer to home. Megan was advertising from Happague, so that would indicate that he lives on Long Island. By extension, Amber Costello would indicate that he lives in West Babylon, or very close to it.
We might start by saying that his first clumsy murders (under a single killer theory) were Jessica and Jane Doe#6, where he physically went into Manhattan by car. These two murders don't factor into my geographic profile below, so please keep reading even if you don't subscribe to the single killer theory).
For the GB4, his first M.O. was apparently to lure them from Manhattan to a location relatively close to home in order to confound police through multi-jurisdictional investigations. He was only able to lure them out so far through the promise of lots of money for an overnight. He found that was effective. We see him use the same technique with Amber.
In choosing his rendezvous destination with Maureen, Melissa and Megan, he needed to arrange to meet them somewhere relatively close to home. He would choose a hotel that they would be familiar with (Budget Inn, advertised as a short stay on UtopiaGuide). His predominant security precaution would be that he'd need to avoid security or other cameras en-route to pick them up from the Budget Inn, and obviously then back to his "kill" site - most likely his house.
By having a rendezvous location, he could also scout their arrival to ensure he never ran into a pimp or other witness. This whole process is where he gets off - its the thrill of the hunt, so to speak. This is his hunting ground. The serial killer can almost certainly be physically placed at the Budget Inn, since Melissa's last call was traced there.
We also know for a fact that the serial killer picked Amber up in his car on America Ave in West Babylon. Anyone familiar with Long Island would know that the parkways have security cameras along the entire route, so anyone with a need to avoid those security cameras would need to take back roads. The main east/west "back roads" on the south shore are Montauk Hwy and Sunrise. He'd want to avoid these particular roads because there are cameras in play, from shops to banks to red light cameras, etc.
We also know with about a 99.9% certainty that the serial killer took the Robert Moses Parkway, since that's the only way to get to Gilgo/Cedar Beach. The only other options to get to Gilgo/Cedar are the Wantagh and Meadowbrook, both in Nassau County. Their distance from where Amber was abducted rules them out.
So if the SK went to Massapequa to meet up with Maureen/Megan/Melissa at the Budget Inn, he would most likely live somewhere between the southernmost entrance to Robert Moses in West Bayshore and Carman Mill Rd. in Massapequa (the Budget Inn). He would have pre-determined his driving route that optimized his ability to avoid security cameras. This route would take him:
- From his home to Carman Ave. (the Budget Inn, where he likely used as a rendevous location for Melissa, Maureen & Megan)
- From Carman Mill Rd. to his kill site - his home
- From his "kill" site (home) to the southernmost entrance to Robert Moses (intersection of Montauk Hwy. and Robert Moses in West Bayshore)
With Amber, we see him becoming more bold. Here's an escort operating in HIS operating zone. This is his "comfort" zone, and its too much to resist. He knows like the back of his hand the driving route that gets him from his kill site (home) to Amber's house and then to his dump site, optimized for avoiding security cameras. This route takes him:
- From his home to America Ave. in West Babylon
- From America Ave. back to his "kill" site (home)
- From kill site to southernmost entrance to Robert Moses (West Bayshore), and down to Gilgo/Cedar
Robert Moses doesn't have cameras that I'm aware of, possibly with the exception of the drawbridge which wouldn't be as worrisome since they're probably pointing at the water. He wouldn't have entered the Robert Moses ay farther north because there would have to use Sunrise Hwy or Southern State Parkway, which would have way too many traffic cameras. Based on the above reasoning, he almost certainly had to use the entrance to Robert Moses from Montauk Highway in West Bayshore.
Again, his east/west route to avoid cameras would need to avoid:
1) Montauk Hwy.
2) Sunrise Hwy.
3) Southern State Pkwy
4) LIE
These are the streets (in blue) that he likely used in the commission of his crimes.
Based on the above analysis, let's geoprofile this serial killer based only on his "known" or "highly likely" locations. To maximize our precision, we'll exclude outliers (such as Times Sq., Port Authority, Gilgo/Cedar, Manorville).
Let's plot the locations that we can reasonably assume that the serial killer can be physically placed.
A) Carman Mill Rd. (Budget Inn)
B) Amber's house on America Ave.
C) Montauk Hwy. Entrance to the Robert Moses (avoids 1-4 above)
Here's how we'll geographically profile and identify the killer:
Problem: assume you have three points, A, B and C, located some distance from each other:
Your task: is to find out point X, which is the point that is equally as distant from all three points. How do you go about this?
Solution: it's not that difficult. first of all, make it a triangle:
Next step is to draw a line from each corner of the triangle to the middle of the opposite side:
the intersection is point X.
________________________________________
Let A = Serial Killer's Rendevous Location with Victims
Let B = Amber's Pickup Spot
Let C = Entrance to Robert Moses Parkway
Let X = Kill spot (most likely Serial Killer's home)
Here we go:
Triangle showing the three "known" locations of the serial killer.
The "Kill" Spot - this is where the GB4 were killed (the "kill" location) - Point X - in YELLOW.
Enlarged image of the "Kill" location
Street view of the "Kill" location.
As I expected, it turns out my person of interest (POI) who has NOT been mentioned in MSM lives exactly 1 block from Point X (the "Kill" location) identified above. This person also:
- appears in a photograph taken in 2003 in Manorville (50 miles away) at a shooting range within a few hundred yards from where victims Jessica Taylor and Jane Doe#6 were found (other remains from these 2 victims were also found with the GB4 at Gilgo/Cedar Beach)
- annually (and actively, since 2000) attends an event at Cedar Beach (duck hunting related), exactly where the GB4, Jessica and Jane Doe#6 were found
- appears in a duck hunting photograph with a large camouflage burlap tarp (which is used as camouflage in his duck hunting sport)
If you think my method is B.S., check out "Geographic Profiling":
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographic_profiling
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If he brought the girls back to his home, he would have been caught by now. Neighbors see everything. They have cameras too. No way a home in West Babylon was the kill site.
I assume you've been to West Babylon in the neighborhood where you've crossed as being most likely his home. If so, then surely you are aware how congested the neighborhood is and how the homes there lack privacy (most houses there have neighbors viewing them all four sides with properties that are rarely more than 100 feet wide).
Residents in that neighborhood know every move their neighbors make. They are aware of the smallest little details.
Trust me, someone would have noticed if a resident there arrived home with struggling women who never left his house alive.
