BondJamesBond
Blunt Instrument
- Joined
- Aug 21, 2008
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I should say a few words about the tolerance. Hopefully I don't get lose too many folks - just trying to put some things in perspective. :bang:
When I speak of a tolerance value of, say, +/-some percent, I am really saying I am 95% confident :snooty: the event occurred between the first date (-some percent) and the last date (+some percent).
The following graph is a normal probability distribution. 95% of the probability lies between -2 on the graph and +2 on the graph.
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In the case of the ADD time values and tolerances, I only showed you half the story.Using one example, a time of death of 6/16/08 3:30 PM and a 35% ADD tolerance, I get the following dates:
6/18/08 1:36 PM (this corresponds to the -2 on the bottom axis of the graph above)In other words, if the tolerance on the ADD analysis is 35% and time of death was 6/16/08 at 3:30 PM, then I am 95% confident that the bagging occurred between 6/18/08 at 1:36 PM and 6/20/08 at 3:26 PM.
6/19/08 2:50 PM (this corresponds to the 0 on the bottom axis of the graph above)
6/20/08 3:26 PM (this corresponds to the 2 on the bottom axis of the graph above)
3:45PM on the 18th and 1:45PM on the 20th are the two most likely times I believe a bagging occurred based on:
Both times fall within the range of times given by the 95% confidence interval. Interestingly, they fall about the same distance on either side of the midpoint, meaning the probability the bagging occurred on either date / time is about the same. :doh: Also, while it is possible the bagging occurred at either time, the likelihood is not very high. The highest likelihood is dead center - June 19 at 2:50 PM. :banghead:
- KC obtaining the various bags from the home,
- KC trying to hide what she was doing by backing into the Anthony garage,
- times KC was at the Anthony home based on cell pings, and
- KC behavior - i.e., I don't believe she would get the bags with the intention of doing the bagging elsewhere at a later time.
:waitasec: June 18 becomes far more likely and June 20 far less likely if the time of death becomes earlier and earlier on the 16th.
:waitasec: June 20 becomes far more likely and June 18 far less likely if the time of death becomes later and later on the 16th.
(Thank you Captain Obvious :takeabow
But the real point here (thank-you for those of you that have survived with me thus far :thumbis that if you agree the bagging had to happen on the 18th or 20th at the Anthony home, then it is much more likely that Caylee died in the early morning of the 16th or some time during the evening of the 16th than it is she died mid-afternoon on the 16th.
I emphasize evening above because I'm starting to think (contrary to a post I made yesterday:bangthat the evening of the 16th is when she died.
Unburying this work of art after my silliness. JWG...exactly how much time did you spend piecing all of this together for us? 'Cause that was pretty damn cool of you to do :cool2:.