In the trunk 2.6 days Decomp Info #1

JWG said:

I should say a few words about the tolerance. Hopefully I don't get lose too many folks - just trying to put some things in perspective. :bang:

When I speak of a tolerance value of, say, +/-some percent, I am really saying I am 95% confident :snooty: the event occurred between the first date (-some percent) and the last date (+some percent).

The following graph is a normal probability distribution. 95% of the probability lies between -2 on the graph and +2 on the graph.

In the case of the ADD time values and tolerances, I only showed you half the story. Using one example, a time of death of 6/16/08 3:30 PM and a 35% ADD tolerance, I get the following dates:

6/18/08 1:36 PM (this corresponds to the -2 on the bottom axis of the graph above)
6/19/08 2:50 PM (this corresponds to the 0 on the bottom axis of the graph above)
6/20/08 3:26 PM (this corresponds to the 2 on the bottom axis of the graph above)
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In other words, if the tolerance on the ADD analysis is 35% and time of death was 6/16/08 at 3:30 PM, then I am 95% confident that the bagging occurred between 6/18/08 at 1:36 PM and 6/20/08 at 3:26 PM.

3:45PM on the 18th and 1:45PM on the 20th are the two most likely times I believe a bagging occurred based on:

1. KC obtaining the various bags from the home,
2. KC trying to hide what she was doing by backing into the Anthony garage,
3. times KC was at the Anthony home based on cell pings, and
4. KC behavior - i.e., I don't believe she would get the bags with the intention of doing the bagging elsewhere at a later time.

Both times fall within the range of times given by the 95% confidence interval. Interestingly, they fall about the same distance on either side of the midpoint, meaning the probability the bagging occurred on either date / time is about the same. :doh: Also, while it is possible the bagging occurred at either time, the likelihood is not very high. The highest likelihood is dead center - June 19 at 2:50 PM. :banghead:

:waitasec: June 18 becomes far more likely and June 20 far less likely if the time of death becomes earlier and earlier on the 16th.

:waitasec: June 20 becomes far more likely and June 18 far less likely if the time of death becomes later and later on the 16th.

(Thank you Captain Obvious :takeabow

But the real point here (thank-you for those of you that have survived with me thus far :thumb is that if you agree the bagging had to happen on the 18th or 20th at the Anthony home, then it is much more likely that Caylee died in the early morning of the 16th or some time during the evening of the 16th than it is she died mid-afternoon on the 16th.

I emphasize evening above because I'm starting to think (contrary to a post I made yesterday:bang that the evening of the 16th is when she died.

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BondJamesBond said:

Forgive the tangent :bang: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Tangent_to_a_curve.svg

FWIW...I just expanded on IBY's kindly summary of Brian's sightings w/ the cell pings near G&C's 6/17-6/23 here: Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - BB The Neighbor's Timeline

Although, per IBY's summary, Brian places Casey backing into the garage a 3rd time on 6/20 in agreement w/ the time frame of the pings that day, Casey's trip was soooooo fast that day :takeoff:...~5mins unless I've screwed up the math...if I didn't know anything different I'd say she didn't stop at the house...that she saw some evidence that George was there (e.g. car in the driveway, garage door open, etc.) "Ruh roh!!! (pause) Reorge!" and just kept on goin'. (Sorry - bout that. I've been good so far).

Add that to NO ADVANCE CALLS TO THE HOUSE, CINDY'S CELL, OR GEORGE'S CELL before making the ueber-brief ping-appearance near G&C's that day...and you've got what has become almost-expected w/ this case...:banghead:

If we knew nothing of ADD at the moment and had nothing from Brian about backing into the garage the 3rd I'd be saying on 6/20 Casey - with Fusian Friday night rapidly approaching - stole away from Tony's just before 2PM, had something in mind 'bout it being George's time to goto work until she drove by and :doh: realized George was off and she had to keep on going. :takeoff: Stopped on Suburban on the way out of Hopespring ...said/thought, "WTF" and emptied the trunk.

But...then again...we DO have ADD and we DO have Brian's sighting. Ugh. :banghead:

That banghead thing is beginning to feel good. Should I be worried?

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BondJamesBond said:

Unburying this work of art after my silliness. JWG...exactly how much time did you spend piecing all of this together for us? 'Cause that was pretty damn cool of you to do :cool2:.

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JWG said:

I hate to mildly dispute a detail when someone that invokes that legendary sleuth, Scooby :beagle-flip:, in their post.

The pings support the possibility ... possibility mind you (don't make me put another graph up there :nono ... that KC could have been at her parents for as long as 15 minutes on the 20th. Her 1:30 ping places her on the road well into her trip to the 'rents, 13 minutes out. Her 2:18 ping places her back at Tony's, or awfully close to there. So she could possibly have gotten there at 1:44 and then left at 1:58 (OK, 14 minutes not 15 ). A quick trip, but so was her trip on the 24th.

See the "Start" and "End" KC on the attached map.
View attachment 4116

A minor point, really, but one I could not resist making. :dance:

Having made that point, however, I do believe Bond is correct :slap: in that she drove by the Anthony homestead and quite possibly made a quick stop by Suburban on the way back.

Note there is a call to the Lexus Dealer on what would be the back-end of her stay in the Hopespring area. For those of you that believe the Lexus calls are really Gentiva calls, was she calling Cindy to ask why George was home? :waitasec:

Or was she calling Cindy to tell her "Hey mom, guess what I just did?" :furious:

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Dear Prudence said:

The FBI report released on June 19, 2009 contained the results of the LIBS and VFA analysis on the stain in the trunk of Casey's car. The results gave a range for the PMI to include 0.7 days to 2.6 days. This is new to me. We have 12 pages here of speculation based on 2.6 days. Does anyone want to rethink the timeline based on this new information?

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BondJamesBond said:

True, it did open up the range a bit.

FWIW, we've been working off a figure of 90-accumulated-degree-days (a.k.a. "ADD") compensated for recorded local ambient temperatures, and further compensated for the trunk temperature vs. ambient temperature delta. All that compensation means we've been working w/ a number more like 2.9 days (varies depending on the assumed t.o.d.) and a default tolerance of +/- 1% which is ~+/- 1hr.

Example for comparison using the compensated temperatures:

"2.6 days" corresponds to 90-ADD &
"0.7 days" corresponds to 24-ADD, so...

• ADD=90, a 7:20PM t.o.d. & +/-1% error yields => 6/19 4:42-6:02PM

• ADD=24, a 7:20PM t.o.d. & +/-1% error yields => 6/17 2:31-2:46PM

So....basically what the new range does is open up the potential for bagging to have happened as early as her first afternoon trip back to G&C's Tuesday 6/17. See the 'new' Brian B. Timeline thread in this forum for a summary of Casey's sightings @ G&C's FWIW.

Hope that helps.

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Dear Prudence said:

Yes, it does help. The Brian B. Timeline thread is very interesting to me also. In my mind, opening the range to as early as 0.7 days fits better with a TOD on the afternoon of June 16th and the bagging and disposal occuring on the 17th and/or 18th along with Brian's testimony regarding KC's car being backed up in the garage.

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FootballMom said:

I just want to say that I get totally geeked up over statistical analysis... I'm pretty sure that Six Sigma was created simply for my benefit.

and I want to thank you guys for giving me my fix..... LOL!

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BondJamesBond said:

:rotfl:

When you really wanna chuckle goto the "Seeking more info 6/10-6/14..." thread for the chi-square analysis on pings. I'm guessing now that passed w/ such a high Z due to cell traffic shifting on towers at night. IOW...special-cause. Still...had to dust off Minitab for that one.

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BondJamesBond said:

:rotfl:

When you really wanna chuckle goto the "Seeking more info 6/10-6/14..." thread for the chi-square analysis on pings. I'm guessing now that passed w/ such a high Z due to cell traffic shifting on towers at night. IOW...special-cause. Still...had to dust off Minitab for that one.

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FootballMom said:

I love minitab! i'm not gonna lie.... i look for random data from ordinary sources [think grocery shopping] to weather patterns & financials.... just to play around in it... I will check out the chi-square... thanks for the tip!

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Searchfortruth said:

So, if Caylee's death occured during the latter afternoon hours of June 16th, after Casey left the house, the date of disposal would probably be after June 18th ? I was thinking she disposed of the body on the 18th, afternoon...but also thought the TOD might have been after she left the house on the 16th. Those two wouldn't jive right ?

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BondJamesBond said:

Hey, Search.

I did a quick example up in post #286. The wider ADD range we have now doesn't lock things in so tight. What you speculated above would be just fine.

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