Madeleine McCann General Discussion Thread No. 26

[rpgman]

Originally Posted by gord

The one thing that even from the beginning made me think that even if the parents had been involved - I dont see how they could have disposed of the body in the time frames that they had. I dont believe for a minute the more outlandish theories that she was killed days before hand and this was a carefully staged plan. There were independent witnesses that saw Madeleine upt 5.30 that night.

I certainly dont believe for a minute that this is a cover up. If so this would have to involve two goverments , two judicaries , two police forces all from different nations .all lying to protect who and why - it is too much. and to make it even stranger the ver goverement or country that colluded in the cover up is nopw spending millions on a police review and trying to persuade the Portugese to open the case again ?

The only logical expalnation I can offer is that an abductor ( and unfortunately we all know these people do exsist ) took an opportune moment to take M from her bed. In a boot of a car they would have been in spain within two hours . We all know from the various reports that the golden first hour was handled badly. The crime site was not sealed , there was no checks on any borders - but this is history now - Even the most partisan of people who say the Mcaans are guilty must recognise that the initial police handling was chaotic at best.

There has been 1000's of words written about this case on many sites, To answer the point about the 15 DNA markers - I doubt the person is a forensic expert , I am not either . I will post here a copy of the email sent by the FSS to Amaral . Before people ask, this is taken from another site . It is pretty well taken as a genuine email from the police reports that were available to all. I just put it here as is and for people to read. - but in the nature of the net I cant give 100% authenciticy -sorry.
The jist of the mail was that Swabs from the apartment didnt even isolate what type of fluid it waslet alone a 100% match -

Anyway it is still all a mystery


Mr Lowes Email to Sr Amaral.

Firstly here are the 3 results you are expecting.

An incomplete DNA result was obtained from cellular material on the swab 3a. The swab contained very little information and showed low level indications of DNA from more than 1 person. However, all of the confirmed DNA components within this result match the corresponding components in the DNA profile of M. M....LCN DNA profiling is highly sensitive, it is not possible to attribute this DNA profile to a particular body fluid.

There is no evidence to support the view that MM contributed DNA to the swab 3B.

A complex LCN DNA result which appeared to have originated from at least 3 people was obtained from cellular material recovered from the luggage compartment section 286C 2007 CRL 10 (2) area 2. Within the DNA profile of MM there are 20 DNA components represented by 19 peaks on a chart. At one of the areas of DNA we routinely examine MM has inherited the same DNA components from both parents; this appears therefore as 1 peak rather than 2, hence 19 rather than 20.
Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to 5 contributors.

In my opinion therefore this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation/inclusion.


Why?.....

Well let's look at the question that is being asked.

"Is there DNA from MM on the swab?"

It would be very simple to say "yes" simply because of the number of components within the result that are also in her reference sample.

What we need to consider, as scientists, is whether the match is genuine and legitimate; because M has deposited DNA as a result of being in the car or whether M merely appears to match the result by chance. The individual components in M profile are not unique to her; it is the specific combination of 19 components that makes her profile unique above all others. Elements of M profile are also present within the profiles of many of the scientists here in Birmingham, myself included.

It's important to stress that 50% of M profile will be shared with each parent. It is not possible in a mixture of more than 2 people, to determine or evaluate which specific DNA components pair with each other. Namely we cannot separate the components out into 3 individual DNA profiles.

Therefore, we cannot answer the question: is the match genuine or is it a chance match.

The same applies to any result that is quoted as being too complex for meaningful inclusion/interpretation.

What questions will we never be able to answer with LCN DNA profiling?

When was DNA deposited?
How was DNA deposited?
What body fluid(s) does the DNA originate from?
Was a crime committed?

These along with all other results, will be formalised in a final report.

Taken from those e-mails:

"Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to 5 contributors."

If I'm reading correctly, and I might not, since I'm not a DNA expert, some of those samples contain DNA from 3 people, but 15 of 19 are the same from Maddie. So, let's see (and here is where I might be wrong), 3 people and up to five. Well, there's the mother and father, and their still alive. There are the twins, and their still alive, now WHO does that leave out?

Maddie.

If I'm wrong (since I'm no DNA expert), someone who might be more familiar with this, please correct me.

and, about the cover up, I didn't mean the Portugal Police or government are in on the cover-up, I meant The British only. As to why their re-opening the case, well, to please the McCann's, but I'm under the impression the Portugal government is well aware of who they think are the perps.

[gord]

from what I understand on this - there was no 100% match on Maddies DNA - we all as humans share the same DNA - what makes DNA unique is the specific order and combination of DNA samples that make a match that would be billion to one chance of being wrong. From what we read here they couldnt even get down to saying it was her DNA - it could have been but it could have been up to 5 other people - and when you think she shares 50% DNA with both parents and siblings - that is not surprising . So as I interpret this - the FSS could not say that this was a match to Maddy. - it might have been but it might have been parents - they just didnt know

The other point that I always thought of is IF a dead Maddy had been transported in the boot/trunk of the car - you would not have needed a microscope for LCN DNA analysis - you could probably scooped it up by hand !!

If we say it was just the British who covered this up - is this the police and goverment ? and they would still have had to involve somone in the Portugese system as they had the case in their country under their law - so it would stil, involve collusion between two nations at high levels - again the 100$ question why ??

In the Uk at the moment we are going through a huge scandal with phone hacking where the press were found to have hacked mobile phones lots coming out with resignations everywhere - I just think that if there was a sniff of something illegal here someone would have found out

[rpgman]

Originally Posted by gord

So as I interpret this - the FSS could not say that this was a match to Maddy. - it might have been but it might have been parents - they just didnt know

Exactly...that's what I was getting at.

You have a cadaver hit, then you test the DNA and it can be one of 5 people.
Maddie, the twins, or the parents. That's the 5.

Guess who is still alive and accounted for?

The parents and twins. So, who could have been the cadaver?
Well, there's only one out of the 5 not accounted for, and that's Maddie.

It's the same as the Caylee Anthony case. Who's death hair was in the trunk that also had a cadaver hit from a dog?

Well, it could have been one of 3 people, and two are still living, Casey and her mom. So, the assumption is it's Caylee's death hair.

The same for the DNA samples in the Maddie case....all the rest she shared DNA with are alive and accounted for.

[gord]

It doesn't work like that the samples they found all could have come from the parents our siblings it want a dead persons DNA it was just a minute sample of body fluid or tissue they couldn't just discount the parents. If this was a match then the parents would have been charged I think.the parents and siblings DNA was all over that car. The fss couldn't tell the diff

[rpgman]

Originally Posted by gord

It doesn't work like that the samples they found all could have come from the parents our siblings it want a dead persons DNA it was just a minute sample of body fluid or tissue they couldn't just discount the parents. If this was a match then the parents would have been charged I think.the parents and siblings DNA was all over that car. The fss couldn't tell the diff

I know it doesn't work that way, but the way I see it is, you have a cadaver dog hit on the spot they get DNA from.

No one died there previously (that according to records of the resort).

Then, you have a missing child, and 4 of the 5 who match the DNA are accounted for.

In my mind, that leaves a deceased Maddie being there at one point.

I know it's not enough to convict though.

JMO.

[rashomon]

Originally Posted by rpgman

I know it doesn't work that way, but the way I see it is, you have a cadaver dog hit on the spot they get DNA from.

No one died there previously (that according to records of the resort).

Then, you have a missing child, and 4 of the 5 who match the DNA are accounted for.

In my mind, that leaves a deceased Maddie being there at one point.

I know it's not enough to convict though.

http://www.mccannfiles.com/id268.html
A complex LCN DNA result which appeared to have originated from at least three people was obtained from cellular material recovered from the luggage compartment section 286C 2007 CRL10 (2) area 2. Within the DNA profile of Madeline McCann there are 20 DNA components represented by 19 peaks on a chart. At one of the areas of DNA we routinely examine Madeleine has inherited the same DNA component from both parents; this appears therefore as 1 peak rather than 2, hence 19 rather than 20. Of these 19 components 15 are present within the result from this item; there are 37 components in total. There are 37 components because there are at least 3 contributors; but there could be up to five contributors. In my opinion therefore this result is too complex for meaningful interpretation/inclusion.

Why?...

Well, lets look at the question that is being asked

"Is there DNA from Madeline on the swab?"

It would be very simple to say "yes" simply because of the number of components within the result that are also in her reference sample.


What we need to consider, as scientists, is whether the match is genuine and legitimate; because Madeline has deposited DNA as a result of being in the car or whether Madeline merely appears to match the result by chance.

If that material was indeed taken from the spot in the luggage compartment where the cadaver (!) dog alerted, it strikes as odd that Lowe seems to ignore the crucial significance which this has for the report.

[rpgman]

Originally Posted by rashomon

If that material was indeed taken from the spot in the luggage compartment where the cadaver (!) dog alerted, it strikes as odd that Lowe seems to ignore the crucial significance which this has for the report.

Exactly.
But the question is WHY does he ignore it?

The only answer I can come up with is a cover up.

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[Donjeta]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/article...stigation.html

Earlier this week, the Olive Press launched their own investigation into Sissal’s sighting and discovered that a German couple had checked into the campground on May 6, three days after Madeleine’s disappearance. The family had originally booked for two adults and two children, but the campground confirmed that they paid an extra fee to add a third child at the time they checked.

They registered under the name Karsten Mayer and stayed at the campground until May 18, 2007. The campground confirmed to the Olive Press that their car license-plate number was registered in Germany and started with BE—which may mean it was a fake plate since those letters have not been issued in Germany since 1974, and the car they were driving was a blue 1996 Mercedes Vita minivan. They were also towing a camping trailer.

Campground officials told the Olive Press that they have still never been contacted by investigators from any country about Sissal’s sighting.

[Robin Hood]

Originally Posted by rpgman

Exactly.
But the question is WHY does he ignore it?

The only answer I can come up with is a cover up.

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Yup. Agreed.

[brit1981]

Robin hood,
Are you accusing lowe of lying or being part of a conspiracy.

And from what I can see here there is a misunderstanding of how DNA works.

The FSS found a tiny sample that contained the DNA of three to five people. This sample was made up of 37 components.
Madeleine's DNA is made up of 19 components, which she will also share with her relatives. However she will also share these components with a large percentage of the general population, including member sof the FSS and lowe himself. DNA components are in no way unique to one person, it is only the actual sequence that is unique.

In the 37 components some components were found to be shared by madeleine, but according to Lowe these components could have come from any of her relatives, or any of the general population who share these components. Lowe states quite clearly that no DNA sequence was identified and the DNA could not be established as belonging to any named person or persons.
Martin Grimes the dog handler who conducted the search stated that there was no reliable indication or evidence that a cadaver had been present. This was supported by another search expert called harrison (I think).
i really cannot see the British police and forensic science service faking a lack of evidence, plus if there was evidence against them they would have been arrested and charged. The Portugues prosecutor stated there was no evidence against them and making them aguidos was too hasty.

[Pisces Cloud]

Police probe Madeleine grave theory.

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/police-prob...215231168.html

[brit1981]

Whether she is alive or dead I hope they find her. But I am sure this guy has been involved in searching for her before. I am not certain, but the south africa bit rings a bell.

[badhorsie]

Originally Posted by brit1981

Whether she is alive or dead I hope they find her. But I am sure this guy has been involved in searching for her before. I am not certain, but the south africa bit rings a bell.

You are thinking of Daniel Krügel who was used by the McCanns in the beginning of the case. He had some type of machine.

Boy does this case bring the nutters out of the woodwork :what:

[brit1981]

Originally Posted by badhorsie

You are thinking of Daniel Krügel who was used by the McCanns in the beginning of the case. He had some type of machine.

Boy does this case bring the nutters out of the woodwork :what:

That was it. Bit of a coincidence them both being from SA.
I think you are right people really want to to involve themselves in this case for some reason.

[rashomon]

Originally Posted by brit1981

Madeleine's DNA is made up of 19 components, which she will also share with her relatives.

This is not what the report says.
The report merely speaks of 20 components within the DNA profile of Madeleine that appear as 19 components on a chart because at one of the areas of DNA they routinely examine, Madeleine inherited the same DNA component from both parents:

http://www.mccannfiles.com/id268.html
Within the DNA profile of Madeline McCann there are 20 DNA components represented by 19 peaks on a chart. At one of the areas of DNA we routinely examine Madeleine has inherited the same DNA component from both parents; this appears therefore as 1 peak rather than 2, hence 19 rather than 20.

Originally Posted by brit1981

However she will also share these components with a large percentage of the general population, including member sof the FSS and lowe himself.

Again, this is not what Lowe says.
For he does not say that these nineteen components 'as a whole' are shared with large percentage of the population; he only speaks of "individual" components. BIG difference.

Of these 19 components in Madeleine's DNA profile,
15 were found in the DNA result obtained from the cellular material recovered from the luggage compartment.

Originally Posted by brit1981

Lowe states quite clearly that no DNA sequence was identified and the DNA could not be established as belonging to any named person or persons.

What Lowe clearly states is this:

http://www.mccannfiles.com/id268.html
What we need to consider, as scientists, is whether the match is genuine and legitimate; because Madeline has deposited DNA as a result of being in the car or whether Madeline merely appears to match the result by chance.

Lowe verbatim speaks of a match, given the number of components found in the DNA from the car: 15 out of 19 that are also in Madeleine's DNA obtained from a reference sample.

[brit1981]

I really do not mean to be rude, but it is obvious from how some people describe the findings they do not know much about DNA. I am a scientist, I work with DNA. The components are not in any way unique to madeleine. It is perfectly possible for complete strangers to have the exact same components as madeleine. It is only the sequence of components that are unique and mean anything. All the components can do is exclude people.
For the record madeleine will share every single components with her parents. There is not one components of madeleine's that will not be in the dna of her two parents.

[BritsKate]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/news...relatives.html

This is an absolute necessity in the UK but I would have personally preferred the charity give face to a family who hasn't had the fortune of the media especially since that apparently is the premise of this latest campaign.

Regardless hopefully it helps bring someone home.

[saggymoon]

I find it odd that some quote the FSS using the same exact wording describing matching components being found in a dna sample can in one instance prove it was Gerrys blood but in the other instance not proving it was Madeleine's blood and it could be any persons on this planet. How ridiculous.

All confirmed components matched! Double standards. As if it being found that Madeleine's blood being found in the car would be such a big deal. After all she did have nosebleeds we are told.

[saggymoon]

Originally Posted by BritsKate

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/news...relatives.html

This is an absolute necessity in the UK but I would have personally preferred the charity give face to a family who hasn't had the fortune of the media especially since that apparently is the premise of this latest campaign.

Regardless hopefully it helps bring someone home.

There has been alot of eyebrow raising in the UK about the appointment of this woman who left her three babies for five consecutive nights alone whilst she was out wining and dining 150 metres away and one of them went *missing* and then failed to cooperate with the police or answer their questions, as some ambassador for missing people. its quite the oxymoron at best.

[joedotnet]

Originally Posted by saggymoon

I find it odd that some quote the FSS using the same exact wording describing matching components being found in a dna sample can in one instance prove it was Gerrys blood but in the other instance not proving it was Madeleine's blood and it could be any persons on this planet. How ridiculous.



All confirmed components matched! Double standards. As if it being found that Madeleine's blood being found in the car would be such a big deal. After all she did have nosebleeds we are told.

Lots of kids that go missing suddenly "have nosebleeds" when families are confronted with blood evidence.

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[saggymoon]

Originally Posted by joedotnet

Lots of kids that go missing suddenly "have nosebleeds" when families are confronted with blood evidence.

Sent from my SGH-i937 using Board Express

I was just saying if it was something innocent like a nosebleed why
Go to all that effort to discredit the dogs LOL and lets face it many have gone out of their way to discredit these dogs, the handler, what are they they trying to hide? LOL
Its pretty simple, they are discrediting everything and anyone who evem hints at Made,eines demise, that rings massive alarm bells and only says one thing, we are guilty but have to drown the facts out in any which way we can

Cadaver dogs are trained on dead bodies, they dont alert to coconit shells vegetables, pizza, bad breath, rotting teeth the other ridiculous things the apologists hope they do to
And especially in a flat from where a chikd has gone missing slam dunk here, eddie alerted to madeleines dead body scent, very sad

[SapphireSteel]

Originally Posted by brit1981

I really do not mean to be rude, but it is obvious from how some people describe the findings they do not know much about DNA. I am a scientist, I work with DNA. The components are not in any way unique to madeleine. It is perfectly possible for complete strangers to have the exact same components as madeleine. It is only the sequence of components that are unique and mean anything. All the components can do is exclude people.
For the record madeleine will share every single components with her parents. There is not one components of madeleine's that will not be in the dna of her two parents.

Then you would know the inherent difficulties in working with low copy DNA? You would also be aware that FSS Ltd carries NO CERTIFICATION, adheres to NO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, and further is a private company with links to the McCann Corporation.

They did the tests, they got the results, but they chose to publish those results in such a way as the lay-man would believe they are NOT indicative of Madeline's bodily fluids, when in fact, THEY ARE.

You keep saying the results could match with anyone...this is misleading in the extreme. If you take a general sample of the population you may get SOME matches...but the general population are not suspected to be either behind the sofa in 5a, nor in the boot of the rental car!

So we have two options, as a "DNA Scientist" you will be able to confirm - either the results are completely unreadable (common with low copy DNA) or they are open to interpretation (also common with low copy DNA) therefore cannot be used (as you are) TO CONFIRM IT IS NOT MADELINES BODY FLUID, EITHER.

Going by your assertions, the DNA proves exactly NOTHING, either way, so why do you insist it clears them?

[SapphireSteel]

Originally Posted by brit1981

I really do not mean to be rude, but it is obvious from how some people describe the findings they do not know much about DNA. I am a scientist, I work with DNA. The components are not in any way unique to madeleine. It is perfectly possible for complete strangers to have the exact same components as madeleine. It is only the sequence of components that are unique and mean anything. All the components can do is exclude people.
For the record madeleine will share every single components with her parents. There is not one components of madeleine's that will not be in the dna of her two parents.

And the sequence is what is missing in Low copy DNA... it must be "built" in a laboratory environment, and is open to a massive margin of error. You would know this as a "Scientist who works with DNA" yet you are ignoring it - worse still, using junk science to prove a point which is THE OPPOSITE of scientific behaviour and training.
:banghead:

[gord]

Originally Posted by SapphireSteel

Then you would know the inherent difficulties in working with low copy DNA? You would also be aware that FSS Ltd carries NO CERTIFICATION, adheres to NO INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, and further is a private company with links to the McCann Corporation.

They did the tests, they got the results, but they chose to publish those results in such a way as the lay-man would believe they are NOT indicative of Madeline's bodily fluids, when in fact, THEY ARE.

You keep saying the results could match with anyone...this is misleading in the extreme. If you take a general sample of the population you may get SOME matches...but the general population are not suspected to be either behind the sofa in 5a, nor in the boot of the rental car!

So we have two options, as a "DNA Scientist" you will be able to confirm - either the results are completely unreadable (common with low copy DNA) or they are open to interpretation (also common with low copy DNA) therefore cannot be used (as you are) TO CONFIRM IT IS NOT MADELINES BODY FLUID, EITHER.

Going by your assertions, the DNA proves exactly NOTHING, either way, so why do you insist it clears them?

why do you keep on insisting that the FSS is a private company that holds no international standards or certifications -

Firstly the FSS doesnt exist anymore - the goverment due to cost cutting closed it down this year.

Back in 2007 it was a GOVERMENT agency and carried out all forensic work for the UK law enforcement It had every credential and certification needed including BSI for goodness sake it was at the forefront of DNA analysis throughout the world.
To claim that it was some shady private company that had " links 2 to the Mccaans is wrong and actualy ludicrous

It is excatly this type of nonsence that has spread around the past 5 years .

[brit1981]

Originally Posted by saggymoon

I find it odd that some quote the FSS using the same exact wording describing matching components being found in a dna sample can in one instance prove it was Gerrys blood but in the other instance not proving it was Madeleine's blood and it could be any persons on this planet. How ridiculous.

All confirmed components matched! Double standards. As if it being found that Madeleine's blood being found in the car would be such a big deal. After all she did have nosebleeds we are told.

No it is not double standards. Anyone who knows about DNA (try reading Genes V), would not find this odd.

The material on the key fob comes from one person, and the FSS said it matched Gerry McCann. They did not say the components matched anyone else which they did with the other DNA. As the material is from one person the chances of it coming from anyone but Gerry are very very small, remember he will have a lot of components that madeleine will not have.

But the material that had Madleeines components in was from three to five people, and every single components she had is shared by her parents. If it was just from one person then the chances are it would have been hers, but given that it was from up to five people, and was found in a place that close relations had used, there is no reason to suspect it is hers at all. The FSS also said they could not tell what material the DNA was from.