the "accident" victim

[gtm]

I still think of Shantina Smiley and her son, Azriel Carver (the 8 yr old son appeared to have drowned, and Shantina was never found)/

Does not fit timeline. She was last seen March 13, 2010. Keyes returned to Alaska March 10.

http://www.fbi.gov/anchorage/press-...he-publics-assistance-concerning-israel-keyes

 

[SMK]

Does not fit timeline. She was last seen March 13, 2010. Keyes returned to Alaska March 10.

http://www.fbi.gov/anchorage/press-...he-publics-assistance-concerning-israel-keyes

Wow. That is disturbing to realize, as I had become positive Shantina Smiley and her son had met up with Keyes. It even makes sense regarding the way the van was found, the way her purse was missing. I wonder if there could be any way he returned to WA on March 13, without leaving any record of it. If not, then I am baffled. Thanks, tho, for the info.

 

[Backwoods]

Does not fit timeline. She was last seen March 13, 2010. Keyes returned to Alaska March 10.

http://www.fbi.gov/anchorage/press-...he-publics-assistance-concerning-israel-keyes

gtm, are you stating that IK returned to Alaska on March 10 based on the timeline that you linked?

Reason I ask: That timeline does not state that. In that same timeline, there ARE time segments for which it is noted IK's location was Alaska, but not in March 2010.

But maybe you are basing his returning to Alaska at that time on a different source -- another timeline, etc.?

 

[gtm]

gtm, are you stating that IK returned to Alaska on March 10 based on the timeline that you linked?

Reason I ask: That timeline does not state that. In that same timeline, there ARE time segments for which it is noted IK's location was Alaska, but not in March 2010.

But maybe you are basing his returning to Alaska at that time on a different source -- another timeline, etc.?

We should keep this to one thread. I have seen this misinterpretation of the FBI timeline many times on this aboard. Times not stated are when he was accounted for by jobs, witnesses, receipts, etc.

Because I am not FBI, I do not know exactly what he did March 11- April 23, but he was in Alaska (i.e.-not traveling) and working. That is what he spent most of his time doing.

We do not know what he did every hour and day, but he probably did not commit major crimes close to home until that one that got him caught.

 

[Backwoods]

We should keep this to one thread. I have seen this misinterpretation of the FBI timeline many times on this aboard. Times not stated are when he was accounted for by jobs, witnesses, receipts, etc.

Because I am not FBI, I do not know exactly what he did March 11- April 23, but he was in Alaska (i.e.-not traveling) and working. That is what he spent most of his time doing.

We do not know what he did every hour and day, but he probably did not commit major crimes close to home until that one that got him caught.

Thanks for replying and I agree, it's best to keep this type of discussion to one thread, when possible.

I don't see, however, how you can label what I've said about the timeline/s as "misinterpretation" so freely. JMO, it is plenty open to discussion, because it is confusing to have FBI timelines out there that conflict, with no statement from FBI saying "disregard earlier timelines".

About what I've bolded in your post: I ask again, how do you know this (that he was in Alaska)?

I understand that there are probably intervals when he WAS in Alaska -- and yes, this could have been one of them -- for which the FBI timelines do not note that specifically. I also think, though, that we can't safely assume that EVERY unlabeled time period means he was in Alaska during that time. I think it is very possible there were, as late as August 2013, periods for which the FBI still did not KNOW where he had been -- in fact, I'm guessing there still are.

 

[gtm]

Thanks for replying and I agree, it's best to keep this type of discussion to one thread, when possible.

I don't see, however, how you can label what I've said about the timeline/s as "misinterpretation" so freely. JMO, it is plenty open to discussion, because it is confusing to have FBI timelines out there that conflict, with no statement from FBI saying "disregard earlier timelines".

About what I've bolded in your post: I ask again, how do you know this (that he was in Alaska)?

I understand that there are probably intervals when he WAS in Alaska -- and yes, this could have been one of them -- for which the FBI timelines do not note that specifically. I also think, though, that we can't safely assume that EVERY unlabeled time period means he was in Alaska during that time. I think it is very possible there were, as late as August 2013, periods for which the FBI still did not KNOW where he had been -- in fact, I'm guessing there still are.

I have followed this case closely since the beginning. The "missing times" have been explained by the FBI as such (but I have no reference to point you to).

They are focused on times he was traveling because of his statements and because MOST of his time is accounted for, especially since 2007, when he moved to Alaska.

1) He lived and worked in Anchorage for multiple clients, had a daughter in school and a lived with a girlfriend.

2) Since 9/11, and even before, you cannot fly or rent a car without records and ID. You cannot drive through Canada in less than 3 days and there are records of every border crossing.

I suppose he could have committed crimes in Alaska, but there are no unsolved murders that fit. Like all states, there are lots of missing persons.

 

[Backwoods]

I have followed this case closely since the beginning. The "missing times" have been explained by the FBI as such (but I have no reference to point you to).

They are focused on times he was traveling because of his statements and because MOST of his time is accounted for, especially since 2007, when he moved to Alaska.

1) He lived and worked in Anchorage for multiple clients, had a daughter in school and a lived with a girlfriend.

2) Since 9/11, and even before, you cannot fly or rent a car without records and ID. You cannot drive through Canada in less than 3 days and there are records of every border crossing.

I suppose he could have committed crimes in Alaska, but there are no unsolved murders that fit. Like all states, there are lots of missing persons.

I also have followed this case closely.

I still do not think we can safely "assume" that every unlabeled time period means he was in Alaska.

We will leave it that way, if you will, and have two pairs of eyes seeing just "little bit different" possibilities.

In other ways about the timeline/s, we seem to have on much the same pair of spectacles (I see after reading what you posted in the other thread about one not negating the other)...so I am glad to encounter you!

 

[gtm]

I also have followed this case closely.

I still do not think we can safely "assume" that every unlabeled time period means he was in Alaska.

We will leave it that way, if you will, and have two pairs of eyes seeing just "little bit different" possibilities.

In other ways about the timeline/s, we seem to have on much the same pair of spectacles (I see after reading what you posted in the other thread about one not negating the other)...so I am glad to encounter you!

All I can say is that I know that much effort was put into that timeline. Way too much to leave out possible crime dates in the lower 48.

Many people have been interviewed multiple times to verify it. It is really the FBI's only hope. They cannot take the word of a murderer, rapist, arsonist, bank robber, thief; so anything Keyes said was is not enough to be included without verification.

This case is backwards. It is not following a trail of evidence from a certain crime, it is trying to backtrack and find crimes along an unknown trail. If you have concerns about a specific date, you might try contacting the Anchorage FBI office.

Of course, then you might be a suspect so make sure you can account for yourself!:scared:

 

[Backwoods]

All I can say is that I know that much effort was put into that timeline. Way too much to leave out possible crime dates in the lower 48.

Many people have been interviewed multiple times to verify it. It is really the FBI's only hope. They cannot take the word of a murderer, rapist, arsonist, bank robber, thief; so anything Keyes said was is not enough to be included without verification.

This case is backwards. It is not following a trail of evidence from a certain crime, it is trying to backtrack and find crimes along an unknown trail. If you have concerns about a specific date, you might try contacting the Anchorage FBI office.

Of course, then you might be a suspect so make sure you can account for yourself!:scared:

We are in general agreement here. My only addition would be -- I do think it is possible there still are times for which LE does not know where he was.

 

[iamnotagolem]

http://www.adirondackdailyenterprise.com/page/content.detail/id/502428.html?nav=5008

"Jeremy Quinn died as a result of multiple traumatic injuries that we have deemed accidental," said Troop B State Police Bureau of Criminal Investigation Capt. Robert LaFountain at a news conference held at the Keene Town Hall on Thursday afternoon. "It did not appear to be a natural death. He died of traumatic injury to the body, sustained falling from a cliff. We believe that he died the morning he disappeared. There was no evidence of any assault. There is no evidence as to why he was at that location.

Questions like, "How did he make that trek by any route and not be seen?" or "Why would he walk when it would have been far easier to drive?" or "Why would he go there, especially having left a message that he'd be just a half hour late for work?" formed in people's minds and quickly were voiced.

"I don't buy for a minute that he walked all the way over there on his own steam," said Donna Combs, voicing the sentiments of many.

"I'm not convinced," said town Supervisor Bill Ferebee. "I'm doubting the fall theory. My question is, how did he get from the truck to the cliff? I'm glad that they found him. I am glad they found the gun. That will help the family find closure. But I am not convinced that they are convinced.



It was brought up on this thread.. http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...p!-Cannot-remember-which-case-I-m-thinking-of

 

[scoobydoobie]

I'm even more convinced Quinn is the guy if I google map Keyes' alleged activities seven months later in the exact same area. The fact that Keyes used caches proves he often retraced his steps. I would assume anyway that he would use the same routes when traveling between places. So the places he went to seven months later, in chronological order:

1.) Keyes flies to Manchester, NH 4/8/2009
2.) Keyes possibly abducts Debra Feldman (the east coast victim) from Schenectady, NY 4/9/2009 (let's assume he did)
3.) Keyes robs a bank in Tupper Lake, NY. 4/10/2009
4.) Hotel reservation Colchester, VT 4/10/2009

If I map out the shortest route between 1 and 2, Keene NH is right on the route! Not halfway but kinda. That is where Quinn died. If Keyes killed Quinn then perhaps he made a cache in that general area, or just stashed a souvenir somewhere. Then 7 months later he could have revisited it while traveling between 1 and 2.

Mapping all of the stops in order I get a big clockwise route. So my theory is he flew to Manchester for the purpose of seeing family in Maine, or maybe visiting his NY property. But instead of going there immediately he instead revisited a cache near Keene from 7 months before. He then continued on and abducted Feldman with tools from this cache. The next day he robs the Tupper lake bank and then travels on to Colchester, VT. He then ends this spree, as usual, by making a new cache, 7 minutes away in Essex, VT (the one he later used on the curriers). Then he then spends the rest of the week visiting family I guess. Alot of circumstantial speculation or whatever youd call it, but at least I don't see anything conflicting with the theory yet, but please prove me wrong. I won't be offended. Of course I'm sure the FBI can concretely rule this one out too ; )

 

[marable]

Perhaps the "accident victims" were drowned or shoved down the steps of their home.

 

[jerkface]

The guy he hit in the head in Washington State was the male half of a couple, both of whom were buried, according to the Nov 29 interview.

Therefore, for the "accident victim," and assuming Keyes did strangle all other victims, we would be looking for an "accident" that successfully disguises signs of strangulation.

To me, that would mean something like a broken neck that ends up being attributed to a fall, or such advanced decomposition at the time the body is found that soft tissue and small bones have disappeared or been dispersed by scavenging. I also get the sense this will be in deep woods, remote, so that investigators would assume a fall or hypothermia following someone getting lost while hiking or on a fishing trip.

And for some reason I keep thinking the accident victim is a solo male, as opposed to a woman. I am not sure why. Perhaps because I imagine a woman will have been raped and tortured prior to being killed, and that the signs would have been much more difficult to disguise as an accident.

The Maine guy, above, is a possibility, but I wonder why investigators so confidently stated "no signs of foul play." Was the autopsy truly able to rule out strangulation?

We only have the "accident victim" scenario second-hand; in other words, we do not have an original recording or transcript of Keyes' account, only law-enforcement-as-filtered-through-media. I am always slightly leery of those filters.

Finally, my sense is that this murder is more likely to be near the *beginning* of Keyes' career than later. That's because there does seem to be a progressive escalation of elements, from completely invisible backwoods encounters to more deliberate kidnappings/carjackings. When I imagine the accident victim scenario, it feels to me like an earlier, random backwoods encounter in the 2000-2006 range.

all purely my feeling, of course.

Guy in ME. Would not dressed as he was,walk down a tote road never to return. Where is his car? You can't go anywhere on foot as it is in heavily forested areas.Sounds like Stacyville guy was left in the woods.

 

[jerkface]

IMO:
Discovery of decomposed body in Stacyville remains mystery after more than a year

Discovery of decomposed body in Stacyville remains mystery after more than a year



NamUs

https://maps.google.com/maps?saddr=rt+11+Stacyville,+ME&daddr=Smyrna,+ME&hl=en&sll=45.188406,-68.984704&sspn=4.482752,10.821533&geocode=Ff28uwIdorHq-ymR33GZA2iwTDH7abhlDy-myQ;FS_7vwIdJOrw-yllbcVV2s6kTDHYTPV5sOLB8g&mra=ls&t=m&z=10

[ame="[URL="http://www.websleuths.com/forums/showpost.php?p=9801059&postcount=1"]Israel Keyes Timelines *NO DISCUSSION*[/URL]"]Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - Israel Keyes Timelines *NO DISCUSSION*[/ame]

I think this could be a Keyes victim . The Man wouldn't be in the woods dressed as he was . Keyes sister lives close by to that. And there isn't a lot of different routes to Smyrna.

 

[Redravengirl]

When I first heard about the victim deemed an accident, the first thing that came to mind was a fall. Since he frequented trails and national forest it could be possible that one victim was trown over a cliff to appear they had fallen. This one has nagged at me because I have read or seen something in the past that fits this but for the life of me I can't figure out how to find it now.

 

[Hrh_LadyJ]

Hi all,
I'm generally not a poster, more of a long term reader here, the information on this website, and the poster's insight is incredible!! So hi all!

I just wanted to share my thoughts on the "accident victim" because when I had originally read about it, it was via a secondhand source, which I always find less reliable then direct transcript/ video audio. And I had a completely different theory of what could possibly have happened and how.... like many of you I assumed it was a "fall off a cliff" or hiking type scenerio.

My source for this is the 2018 newly released fbi interviews, specifically 7.10.12 at around the 1hr mark. (I can post a link to the sound cloud file here, or anyone interested can go directly to the site and type in Israel keys and find it).

The entire interview is extremely useful for anyone interested in his early history of crimes and development/ pathology IMO. His first Rape and Tel Aviv girl etc. But he specifically gets into the accident victim at about 1hr. So here is my take on this....

He mentions Boating just previously to the beginning of the Accident victim coming up, and the comment sort of goes unacknowledged.

My thoughts: The Victim was probably in the Western part of the country, and timing was shorty after he had bought the boat... He had developed more of a plan in terms of MO etc, but this was at some point after he got out of the Army, and was living in Neah Bay. He explains it was "awhile ago" but listening to the interview you can somewhat narrow it to his yrs in Neah Bay, or shorty after. His boat was actually found there IIRC and he had said it had been there for around 7yrs, in another interview.

He talks about how you can "get around" a body being potentially found and made to look accidental by final cause of death example: (given by detective) a fire victim taking his last breath at the scene thus having smoke inhalation in his lungs regardless of what Keyes had done to this person previously.... (my take on this was water in the lungs if he dropped the victim in a lake or body of water just before they expired)

He then talks about worrying about LE questioning him and being able to convincingly lie about his knowledge of the person b/c likely someone may have seen an identifying clue, such as a licence putting him in the area..... But I don't believe he was actually referring to a plate, more likely his boat name/ serial number... he said he knew he needed an alibi (fishing licence maybe?) incase.

Another clue, he said he felt fairly certain this body would be found, and hoped that enough time had gone by for the decomp. to destroy any evidence of what had happened... ( likely his brutal attack/ rape) I felt like this was more drowning b/c if it was a fall I think he would have just burryed/ Drain-o'd the person, where as his knowledge of what water can do to a body was far less advanced (he asked questions about that in another tape), but either scenerio is plausible with him...

He corrected the officer at one point when they mentioned "bodies" so we know this was a single person, maybe out on the lake on a nice day etc. and that this persons boat WOULD be found in the area... unlike a hikers car he could move. This was a chance encounter I think and could have been male/ female.

Anyway, thats my 2c. on this one, I'm hoping someone else is still looking into his crimes, even with this passage of time... and actually I have many more theories about IK, but that's for a different section and time.

I don't know what it is about IK... I don't usually like these types of criminals/ stories... I'm far more interested in cases like "Jack the Ripper" or "The Princes in the Tower" but maybe with keyes it's more the fact that he's about my age and I'm from VT (although was living in Boston when the Curriers disappeared) and being a small blonde haired girl growing up in New England who often went places alone, and made all sorts of silly decisions in retrospect, could have easily been one of his victims. He truly was a monster.... and after listening to the horrible details in the April/ May tapes, I almost feel scarred for life....

I know this is super long post, but hope it's helpful if anyone out there is still reading up on this!! It's an older case, so who knows how often this board is even checked.
~LJ

 

[angelinarose]

When I first heard about the victim deemed an accident, the first thing that came to mind was a fall. Since he frequented trails and national forest it could be possible that one victim was trown over a cliff to appear they had fallen. This one has nagged at me because I have read or seen something in the past that fits this but for the life of me I can't figure out how to find it now.

 

[Falling Down]

Hi all,
I'm generally not a poster, more of a long term reader here, the information on this website, and the poster's insight is incredible!! So hi all!

I just wanted to share my thoughts on the "accident victim" because when I had originally read about it, it was via a secondhand source, which I always find less reliable then direct transcript/ video audio. And I had a completely different theory of what could possibly have happened and how.... like many of you I assumed it was a "fall off a cliff" or hiking type scenerio.

My source for this is the 2018 newly released fbi interviews, specifically 7.10.12 at around the 1hr mark. (I can post a link to the sound cloud file here, or anyone interested can go directly to the site and type in Israel keys and find it).

The entire interview is extremely useful for anyone interested in his early history of crimes and development/ pathology IMO. His first Rape and Tel Aviv girl etc. But he specifically gets into the accident victim at about 1hr. So here is my take on this....

He mentions Boating just previously to the beginning of the Accident victim coming up, and the comment sort of goes unacknowledged.

My thoughts: The Victim was probably in the Western part of the country, and timing was shorty after he had bought the boat... He had developed more of a plan in terms of MO etc, but this was at some point after he got out of the Army, and was living in Neah Bay. He explains it was "awhile ago" but listening to the interview you can somewhat narrow it to his yrs in Neah Bay, or shorty after. His boat was actually found there IIRC and he had said it had been there for around 7yrs, in another interview.

He talks about how you can "get around" a body being potentially found and made to look accidental by final cause of death example: (given by detective) a fire victim taking his last breath at the scene thus having smoke inhalation in his lungs regardless of what Keyes had done to this person previously.... (my take on this was water in the lungs if he dropped the victim in a lake or body of water just before they expired)

He then talks about worrying about LE questioning him and being able to convincingly lie about his knowledge of the person b/c likely someone may have seen an identifying clue, such as a licence putting him in the area..... But I don't believe he was actually referring to a plate, more likely his boat name/ serial number... he said he knew he needed an alibi (fishing licence maybe?) incase.

Another clue, he said he felt fairly certain this body would be found, and hoped that enough time had gone by for the decomp. to destroy any evidence of what had happened... ( likely his brutal attack/ rape) I felt like this was more drowning b/c if it was a fall I think he would have just burryed/ Drain-o'd the person, where as his knowledge of what water can do to a body was far less advanced (he asked questions about that in another tape), but either scenerio is plausible with him...

He corrected the officer at one point when they mentioned "bodies" so we know this was a single person, maybe out on the lake on a nice day etc. and that this persons boat WOULD be found in the area... unlike a hikers car he could move. This was a chance encounter I think and could have been male/ female.

Anyway, thats my 2c. on this one, I'm hoping someone else is still looking into his crimes, even with this passage of time... and actually I have many more theories about IK, but that's for a different section and time.

I don't know what it is about IK... I don't usually like these types of criminals/ stories... I'm far more interested in cases like "Jack the Ripper" or "The Princes in the Tower" but maybe with keyes it's more the fact that he's about my age and I'm from VT (although was living in Boston when the Curriers disappeared) and being a small blonde haired girl growing up in New England who often went places alone, and made all sorts of silly decisions in retrospect, could have easily been one of his victims. He truly was a monster.... and after listening to the horrible details in the April/ May tapes, I almost feel scarred for life....

I know this is super long post, but hope it's helpful if anyone out there is still reading up on this!! It's an older case, so who knows how often this board is even checked.
~LJ

Great post!

I've been drawn to the Keyes stuff like a moth to a flame, the amount of trouble he went through amazes me, but that was part of his MO and fascinates me.

I'm a hiker and outdoors type, also ex-military like Keyes. I just can't imagine running into this type of monster in the woods, the images of him at the waterfall/public park area are spooky, to me. If you haven't already, check out the "Possible Sightings" thread:

Possible Sightings

I'm fairly familiar with the area where he had property in the North Country of New York. Makes sense to me someone of his intelligence level would keep it in the family, so to speak, and it was because of his intentions.

 

[PacesMom]

We should keep this to one thread. I have seen this misinterpretation of the FBI timeline many times on this aboard. Times not stated are when he was accounted for by jobs, witnesses, receipts, etc.

Because I am not FBI, I do not know exactly what he did March 11- April 23, but he was in Alaska (i.e.-not traveling) and working. That is what he spent most of his time doing.

We do not know what he did every hour and day, but he probably did not commit major crimes close to home until that one that got him caught.

Whether or not he is to be believed is one thing but he does tell investigators that he didn’t kill children.

 

[sarahperhaps]

I just finished reading "American Predator," and towards the end there is mention that Tammie allegedly shared that her neighbor's husband had died in an accident. The author is obviously implying that Keyes may have been involved. Does anyone know anything further about the neighbor's husband and whether he could be the "accident" victim?