This case popped into my mind recently, so I reread the entire thread and have some thoughts.
I’m nearly positive Israel Keyes is NOT the perpetrator. These crimes seem primarily motivated by money, and if Keyes wanted cash, he’d rob a bank. He’d gotten away with plenty of them in his life; I don’t imagine him risking being caught or seen in such a busy, populated area for such a relatively small amount of money. Sure, he kidnapped Koenig from a coffee stand out in the open and used her credit cards carelessly afterward, but he seemed to be decompensating psychologically at that point; prior to that, he’d spent years being meticulous about how he committed his crimes and rarely risked that kind of exposure. His crimes seemed motivated primarily by his sexual/personal sadism and deviant personal desires. Like another commenter stated, he also avoided targeting children. While the composite sketch looks kind of like him, I think that’s more of our minds seeking patterns and connections that aren’t there. He looks similar to the sketch, so our minds start building a case around that connection, when it’s more subjective interpretation than objective fact. Finally, if they have DNA from the Boca murders, wouldn’t they have compared it to Keyes by now, or wouldn’t that link show up when they entered the DNA into databases?
I don’t know whether Gorenberg’s murder is related or not. I tend to lean toward it being an unrelated crime, since LE stated the DNA didn’t match DNA collected from the mother/child incidents and they don’t seem convinced of a link. But it is an incredible coincidence if unrelated. Maybe two different perpetrators who operate in similar circles. I haven’t read enough about her husband to make a judgement as to his possible guilt or innocence, but it’s worth remembering that women are more often than not killed by men they know and are close to. I wonder if there is any other testing being done on any of the DNA, like genetic genealogy, or if there is evidence that could be processed with newer technology?
I think you’re spot on with this. Whoever the perpetrator is, he clearly spent a lot of time thinking out and planning these crimes, and had very specific motivations and quirks. He seems aware of forensics or crime scene investigation to a degree, and has worked out what he believes is an effective (and clever) strategy for getting quick cash. I think there is also some underlying motivations here that are a little less clear. He enjoys exerting control over these women, and using their children and the threat of harm to them as a means of furthering that control. He uses cheap handcuffs, and then the block-out goggles for sensory deprivation. He threatens to harm the child unless they comply. It’s more psychological than physical. He doesn’t want confrontation or a struggle, which is why he chooses women with small children instead of women alone. I think he killed Nancy and Joey because one or both of them fought back, or tried to escape. For him, it’s all about exerting power over them and taking their money.
This is why I think there is more to this than just robbery. The perpetrator seems to have put a lot of thought into these crimes, and I think they were as much about mind games as they were about getting some quick cash. I think all the rituals involved in planning the crimes, executing them, and then covering his tracks, show a higher intelligence and more organization than the average crook. He probably got a rush by getting away with committing these crimes in such a busy and affluent area; almost like thumbing your nose at society, especially the upper class. Maybe I’m reading a little too much into it.
These crimes are so frightening and callous. I don’t think murder was the original intent, but this creep clearly didn’t have a problem executing a woman and her child for nothing more than a wad of cash, which makes him exceptionally vile. I really, really hope they catch this guy. Nancy and Joey deserve justice, as do the other victims who were terrorized by this monster.
Great analysis! I agree with you that I do not think Keyes is involved and I'm not sold that the Gorenberg case is related either. I also agree that murder was likely not the original intent but instead there is a psychological control component at play here along w/wanting some quick cash. I do think something happened which threw off the perp from his game plan and that is why he ultimately killed them.
Most people I knew in the community at the time assumed this would be solved fairly fast. To see it unsolved after all of this time makes me so sad because Nancy, Joey, and their families deserve justice. And this monster needs to be rotting in jail.
Do you think the perp just stopped offending after this and that is why the case has gone cold? Or maybe the perp changed MO's? Its hard for me to imagine someone like this would just vanish never to commit crimes again.
I also wonder about DNA and what they have, if any. I would assume if they have a good sample its been run against the various databases and maybe they could even use the newer familial dna systems to gain some more insight. I'm not sure what the laws in FL are around using familial dna though to know if its allowed.
Also, do they have surveillance footage from the Home Depot in Miami where the items were purchased? I believe the zip ties, at least, were purchased there, correct? Or did I mix something up?