2020 Hurricane Season Starting Early, "High Activity" Expected This Year

[Gardener1850]

Hurricane season may get early start near southeast US

Kristina Pydynowski
,
AccuWeather•May 13, 2020
Even though the Atlantic hurricane season doesn't officially start until June 1, the first tropical or subtropical storm is expected to develop offshore of the southeastern United States this weekend.

"In every year since 2012, except for 2014, there has been at least one named tropical system during May," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said - and this year is likely to be no different.

AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate a system to begin brewing near South Florida on Friday before strengthening into a subtropical or tropical system offshore of the Southeast coast this weekend. The ocean water is just warm enough for tropical development.

Hurricane season may get early start near southeast US

----------------------------


Here is the list of 2020 hurricane names:

Arthur

Bertha

Cristobal

Dolly

Edouard

Fay

Gonzalo

Hanna

Isaias

Josephine

Kyle

Laura

Marco

Nana

Omar

Paulette

Rene

Sally

Teddy

Vicky

Wilfred

Hurricane season names 2020 list: How Atlantic storms get their names
-------------------------

Colorado State University has released its early forecast for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. They have been issuing these early forecasts for almost 25 years. The CSU Atlantic hurricane season forecast calls for above average tropical weather activity.

Two of the main weather conditions CSU cites as reasons to expect more tropical systems and hurricanes this season also would influence Michigan and Ohio’s weather.

Sea surface water temperatures are warmer than normal around the southeast U.S. on May 13, 2020
CSU mentions a possible change from slight El Niño conditions to a possible La Niña developing this summer or fall. An El Niño produces a more west-to-east upper-level wind over the tropical Atlantic. The west-to-east wind can be a hinderance to hurricanes. The forecast of conditions turning to La Niña is an important one for hurricanes and Great Lakes weather. La Niña brings a more east-to-west upper air flow in the tropical Atlantic region. This condition helps hurricanes thrive, survive and move westward toward the U.S.

CSU also says surface water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal for now. Of course we know the warmer ocean water could more easily brew a powerful hurricane.

Michigan, Ohio could see impact of new hurricane season forecast

-----------------------

Hurricane Season Is Expected to Be Particularly Active This Year, and Coronavirus Could Make It Worse

The start of the U.S. Atlantic hurricane season is just over two weeks away and forecasters are expecting particularly high activity this year. With warmer than usual conditions anticipated in the North Atlantic this summer, meteorologists have predicted that the season could produce eight or more hurricanes.

While forecasters cannot predict how many hurricanes—if any—will make landfall, the potential for dangerous storms to strike the southern and eastern coasts poses an additional problem for authorities already grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Experts say that the pandemic is straining the capabilities of The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)—the government agency responsible for disaster coordination—and other organizations involved in responding to natural disasters

Hurricane season is expected to be particularly active this year, and coronavirus could make it worse

US weather: Hurricane season, wild winds and tornadoes expected | Daily Mail Online

 

[Gardener1850]

The low pressure system, which could take the name Arthur, has a 70% chance of becoming either a tropical or sub-tropical storm in 48 hours and a 80% in five days as it moves northeast over the Bahamas, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said late Thursday.

“Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast Florida and the Bahamas through Saturday,” the center said in the statement. “Tropical-storm-force wind gusts are also possible.”

An Air Force Reserve plane will fly into the system Friday to gauge its strength and structure. A storm gets a name when its winds reach 39 miles (63 kilometers) per hour.

Atlantic’s First Storm Will Likely Form by Friday or Saturday

 

[Gardener1850]

First storm of hurricane season ‘Arthur’ likely to form late Friday or Saturday

 

[Gardener1850]

Above: Enhanced infrared image of the broad, disorganized zone of showers and thunderstorms associated with Invest 90L at 0036Z Friday, May 15, 2020 (8:36 pm EDT Thursday). (NASA/MSFC Earth Science Branch)

Florida’s Middle Keys were drenched on Thursday by downpours associated with Invest 90L, a disturbance that is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm by this weekend. In a special tropical weather update issued at 8 pm EDT Thursday evening, the NOAA/NWS National Hurricane Center gave 90L a 70% chance of becoming at least a depression by Saturday night and an 80% chance by Tuesday night.

The first name on the 2020 list of Atlantic storms is Arthur.

Although this system is likely to peak in strength as it heads into the open Atlantic, it may bring more rounds of torrential rain to South Florida and parts of The Bahamas before then. By Monday, its western edge could brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina with gusty winds and squalls.

Tropical or Subtropical Storm Likely This Weekend Near Florida; Vongfong Weakens over Philippines

 

[Gardener1850]

AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate a system to begin brewing near South Florida Thursday into Friday before strengthening into a subtropical or tropical system offshore of the Southeast coast this weekend. The ocean water is just warm enough for tropical development.

Friday afternoon a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Hurricane Hunter is scheduled to investigate the system. These missions give forecasters additional insight into the possible future of tropical systems. A Hurricane Hunter test flight was conducted Thursday to calibrate sensors and equipment.

The Atlantic's first tropical system of the season is expected this weekend

 

[Gardener1850]

System off Florida could become season’s first named storm

Tropical Storm Arthur path won't reach Florida coast; rain, rough surf

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article242758216.html

Hurricane season in a pandemic? With an oil crash? Disaster expert preps Houston for the worst

Pandemic Complicates Preparations for Hurricane Season | WBHM 90.3

 

[PayrollNerd]

SWFL (south of Tampa) report.
We had steady rain this afternoon. A friend drove I-75 north and had rain out (low visibility) for maybe 10 miles. It slowed considerably by 7:00pm. The temp has dropped from 84 at 3:00pm to 73 at 9:30pm. As the circular motion moves back over FL, we may see some rain tomorrow as the chance is 40%. Stay safe!

 

[margarita25]

Hurricane season may get early start near southeast US

Kristina Pydynowski
,
AccuWeather•May 13, 2020
Even though the Atlantic hurricane season doesn't officially start until June 1, the first tropical or subtropical storm is expected to develop offshore of the southeastern United States this weekend.

"In every year since 2012, except for 2014, there has been at least one named tropical system during May," AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski said - and this year is likely to be no different.

AccuWeather meteorologists anticipate a system to begin brewing near South Florida on Friday before strengthening into a subtropical or tropical system offshore of the Southeast coast this weekend. The ocean water is just warm enough for tropical development.

Hurricane season may get early start near southeast US

----------------------------


Here is the list of 2020 hurricane names:

Arthur

Bertha

Cristobal

Dolly

Edouard

Fay

Gonzalo

Hanna

Isaias

Josephine

Kyle

Laura

Marco

Nana

Omar

Paulette

Rene

Sally

Teddy

Vicky

Wilfred

Hurricane season names 2020 list: How Atlantic storms get their names
-------------------------

Colorado State University has released its early forecast for the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. They have been issuing these early forecasts for almost 25 years. The CSU Atlantic hurricane season forecast calls for above average tropical weather activity.

Two of the main weather conditions CSU cites as reasons to expect more tropical systems and hurricanes this season also would influence Michigan and Ohio’s weather.

Sea surface water temperatures are warmer than normal around the southeast U.S. on May 13, 2020
CSU mentions a possible change from slight El Niño conditions to a possible La Niña developing this summer or fall. An El Niño produces a more west-to-east upper-level wind over the tropical Atlantic. The west-to-east wind can be a hinderance to hurricanes. The forecast of conditions turning to La Niña is an important one for hurricanes and Great Lakes weather. La Niña brings a more east-to-west upper air flow in the tropical Atlantic region. This condition helps hurricanes thrive, survive and move westward toward the U.S.

CSU also says surface water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic are warmer than normal for now. Of course we know the warmer ocean water could more easily brew a powerful hurricane.

Michigan, Ohio could see impact of new hurricane season forecast

-----------------------

Hurricane Season Is Expected to Be Particularly Active This Year, and Coronavirus Could Make It Worse

The start of the U.S. Atlantic hurricane season is just over two weeks away and forecasters are expecting particularly high activity this year. With warmer than usual conditions anticipated in the North Atlantic this summer, meteorologists have predicted that the season could produce eight or more hurricanes.

While forecasters cannot predict how many hurricanes—if any—will make landfall, the potential for dangerous storms to strike the southern and eastern coasts poses an additional problem for authorities already grappling with the COVID-19 pandemic.

Experts say that the pandemic is straining the capabilities of The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)—the government agency responsible for disaster coordination—and other organizations involved in responding to natural disasters

Hurricane season is expected to be particularly active this year, and coronavirus could make it worse

US weather: Hurricane season, wild winds and tornadoes expected | Daily Mail Online

Thank you for starting this thread, @Gardener1850

 

[PayrollNerd]

Hurricane websites I like because the information is not dramatized and it is factual.

Tropical Tidbits

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=1482665731918304

www.flhurricane.com
I've watched this page for years and many meteorologists participate in the discussions. Fabulous maps and links.

 

[Gardener1850]

Thank you for starting this thread, @Gardener1850

You're welcome @margarita25
I'm so glad to see you posting on WS again. You were missed.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Tropical Tidbits Facebook post just after noon today.

Invest #90L is east of Port St. Lucie,... - Tropical Tidbits | Facebook

Invest #90L is east of Port St. Lucie, FL this morning, and now has some thunderstorm activity closer to its center. The storm is now beginning the transition process to a subtropical or tropical storm, likely to happen later today or tomorrow. It will continue moving northeastward, possibly close to the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Monday. Gradual intensification is likely between now and then, but it's too soon to know what impacts, if any, will occur in coastal North Carolina.

 

[PayrollNerd]

flhurricane Facebook post at about noon today.

Flhurricane.com

Recon is out in the area being tracked as 90L, it could be named later today -- fairly soon based on the most recon, or at least tracked, those along the east coast should expect some dangerous surf conditions along the east coast.

810 AM EDT Sat May 16 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for tropical or subtropical development off the east coast of
Florida.

An area of low pressure located just offshore of the southeast
coast of Florida continues to produce shower activity and gusty
winds from portions of southeast and east-central Florida
eastward across the northwestern Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic
waters. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
low is gradually becoming better defined, but the associated showers
and thunderstorms remain disorganized. Continued gradual
development is expected, and the system is likely to become a
tropical or subtropical depression or storm later today or tonight
while it moves north-northeastward over the Atlantic waters east of
Florida. Later in the weekend and early next week, the system is
expected to move generally northeastward over the western Atlantic
near or east of the Carolinas.

Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring
heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of east-central
Florida and the northwestern Bahamas through today. In addition,
hazardous marine conditions will spread northward during the next
few days, likely causing dangerous surf and rip currents along
much of the southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts of the U.S. See
products from your local weather office for more details. An Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to
investigate the disturbance. The next Special Tropical Weather
Outlook on this system will be issued by 3 PM EDT today, or earlier
if needed.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

 

[Gardener1850]

Another Hurricane Hunter plane is scheduled to investigate the system Saturday night.

If the storm continues to become more defined, the hurricane center will reclassify it as a tropical or subtropical depression. If it becomes a storm, it will be named Arthur.

The disturbance has the potential to bring heavy rainfall to portions of east central Florida through tonight, forecasters said.

North Carolina residents should also be on alert.

"Interests near the North Carolina coast should closely monitor the progress of this system, as it could produce gusty winds and heavy rains there on Monday, and a tropical storm watch will likely be issued for that area later today," forecasters wrote Saturday afternoon.

Hazardous marine conditions will also spread north over the southeastern and mid-Atlantic U.S. coasts over the next few days, likely causing dangerous surf and rip currents.

Storm off FL coast becomes better defined, tracks northeast


North Carolina News:
Potential tropical system could bring floods, high winds to NC coast :: WRAL.com

https://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/local/article242784101.html

South Carolina News:
SC, Lowcountry impact expected to be only minimal from possible subtropical storm Arthur

SE Georgia and NE Florida:
High risk of rip currents at beaches in Northeast Florida, Southeast Georgia

 

[PayrollNerd]

I hope the surfers don't take this storm lightly. It seems like there are always people excited to get on their boards who are not necessarily strong surfers. The waves are bigger than normal and a few underestimate them and their skill set. It is good that there are not a lot of tourists on the beaches right now.

 

[JerseyGirl]

I'm here for the 2020 season. We should be moving in this year after Hurricane Sandy.

I can't believe the tropics have started already.

 

[PayrollNerd]

flhurricane Facebook page post 4 hours ago:

Flhurricane.com

Preseason Tropical Depression #1 forms north of the Bahamas, Tropical Storm Watches are up for North Carolina, north of Surf City to Duck, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area on Monday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over the central and northwest
Bahamas, and generally less than 1 inch over south Florida through
tonight. The depression is also expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over coastal North Carolina Sunday
night and Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of
the east coast of central and northern Florida. These swells are
expected to spread northward during the next few days, and could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across much
of the U.S. southeast and mid-Atlantic coasts. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

Key Messages:

1. A tropical storm watch has been issued for a portion of the
North Carolina coast. Tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains
are possible there on Monday.

2. Dangerous coastal surf conditions and rip currents are expected
to spread northward from Florida to the mid-Atlantic states during
the next few days. See products from your local National Weather
Service forecast office for more details.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Tropical Tidbits Facebook post 2 hours ago.

Tropical Depression One Forms - Could Impact North Carolina on MondayTropical Depression One Forms - Could Impact North Carolina on Monday

Saturday evening video discussion on newly-formed Tropical Depression One, which could impact North Carolina on Monday

 

[PayrollNerd]

Here we go..... welcome to 2020 Bizarro World cartoon in real life. Lord this is nuts to think of what all is going on and it is only May!

Tropical Storm Arthur forms off Florida, warning issued for North Carolina's Outer Banks

The first named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season formed off the Florida coast on Saturday, making it the sixth-straight year for a system to develop before the official start of the season as tropical storm warnings were issued for North Carolina's Outer Banks.

The U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Tropical Storm Arthur has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph as of 5 a.m. Sunday, and is located about 380 miles south-southwest of Cape Hatteras, N.C. The storm is moving north-northeast at 9 mph.

 

[JudgeJoe]

Dreading the season this year. Have had to evac last 4 years. Prior to that, never. Just hunkered down. Appears the first name on the list is already tropical storm status.

2020 Hurricane Names:
Arthur: Tropical Storm May 17
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred

 

[margarita25]

You're welcome @margarita25
I'm so glad to see you posting on WS again. You were missed.

Thanks, G.

—-

There’s never a good time for hurricanes, but could this time during a pandemic be any worse?

—-

ETA:

And during this season, when shelters may need to be utilized, there is this aspect of “shared spaces” during the “pandemic” at hand...

Some people may be more inclined to not evacuate to a shelter for this reason.

I’m sure the Red Cross, etc. is planning their “socially distanced” shelters as we speak; I imagine them to be not that much different from a “quarantine facility”.