2024 Hurricane and Tropical Weather

[HmmMysterious]

Meanwhile in the Pacific...he's forecast to become a 120 mph Cat 3 hurricane before landfall in Southern Mexico

...JOHN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...

---

3:00 PM CST Mon Sep 23
Location: 15.5°N 98.5°W
Moving: N at 6 mph
Min pressure: 973 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

 

[lonetraveler]

It's gonna be bad.

I've been glued to every update. This one is going to be major, major. Hope everyone in its path is watching and getting ready.

 

[Lexiintoronto]

First track of the cone that the Canadian government has issued. (175 km/h = 108 mph).

View attachment 533044

The Canadian source linked above now has it increasing in speed, so it’s projected to be a category 3 when it makes landfall at the moment.


ETA: “WeatherTiger Meteorologist Ryan Truchelut put it succinctly in an online post Monday afternoon: "Helene will come at you faster than you think, so go into hurricane mode now. While there remains uncertainty in both the track and intensity forecast, Florida isn’t getting out of this one."

'Go into hurricane mode now': Helene expected to lash Florida as Category 3 storm this week

Most forecast models suggest a hurricane landfall on Thursday, and experts say the storm could be at least a Category 3.

www.usatoday.com

 

[PayrollNerd]

Gov. Ron DeSantis declares State of Emergency in 41 Florida counties

In advance of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 41 Florida counties.

www.mysuncoast.com

 

[Stunned]

Gov. Ron DeSantis declares State of Emergency in 41 Florida counties

In advance of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 41 Florida counties.

www.mysuncoast.com

Gov. Ron DeSantis declares State of Emergency in 41 Florida counties

In advance of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 41 Florida counties.

www.mysuncoast.com

Gov. Ron DeSantis declares State of Emergency in 41 Florida counties

In advance of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 41 Florida counties.

www.mysuncoast.com

Gov. Ron DeSantis declares State of Emergency in 41 Florida counties

In advance of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 41 Florida counties.

www.mysuncoast.com

Pretty much covers all of my north FL. family members. 3 of them were just kids in Andrew, but they remember and are taking this seriously.

 

[bestill]

I live on the coast of South Carolina and am praying for my Florida friends!! This one is not looking good. I was here during Hugo and stayed, I will never stay for storm over a cat 1. I hope you all take this seriously and leave if you can.

 

[PayrollNerd]

I live on the coast of South Carolina and am praying for my Florida friends!! This one is not looking good. I was here during Hugo and stayed, I will never stay for storm over a cat 1. I hope you all take this seriously and leave if you can.

If it turns more east toward Sarasota and goes to a CAT 4, I’ll leave. I could go to the east coast to my aunt & uncles mobile home. But that’s not very reassuring. My friends are west of Savannah GA now but that’s 6-7 hours north. Trying to evacuate on I-75N is an exercise in futility.

I’m in a concrete block house and I’m not in any evacuation zone. My house is probably the highest in the neighborhood. I think we will get 50 MPH winds with a ton of rain. My sweet potato bed might get some water way out in the back yard. But it drains very quick.

I’m more concerned about my oldest. She’s currently in Hawaii. She’s flying back Sat I think. I told her to change her flight to Atlanta and ride with her boyfriend to his place in Dothan AL. It would not surprise me if her flight into Panama City a beach is cancelled.

 

[Stunned]

If it turns more east toward Sarasota and goes to a CAT 4, I’ll leave. I could go to the east coast to my aunt & uncles mobile home. But that’s not very reassuring. My friends are west of Savannah GA now but that’s 6-7 hours north. Trying to evacuate on I-75N is an exercise in futility.

I’m in a concrete block house and I’m not in any evacuation zone. My house is probably the highest in the neighborhood. I think we will get 50 MPH winds with a ton of rain. My sweet potato bed might get some water way out in the back yard. But it drains very quick.

I’m more concerned about my oldest. She’s currently in Hawaii. She’s flying back Sat I think. I told her to change her flight to Atlanta and ride with her boyfriend to his place in Dothan AL. It would not surprise me if her flight into Panama City a beach is cancelled.

The east side of the storm is the messy side, so there is that to consider. I agree, a mobile home on the east coast of FL. does not sound reassuring at all!

 

[HmmMysterious]

...MAJOR HURRICANE JOHN MAKES LANDFALL IN MEXICO...

---

9:20 PM CST Mon Sep 23
Location: 16.6°N 98.9°W
Moving: N at 8 mph
Min pressure: 959 mb
Max sustained: 120 mph

 

[PayrollNerd]

https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/24/weather/helene-florida-storm-preparations?cid=ios_app

Breaking news: Tropical Storm Helene has formed in the Caribbean with winds of 45 mph. The storm is expected to strengthen rapidly into a major hurricane over the next 48 hours as it tracks over the Gulf of Mexico before plowing into Florida’s Big Bend region.

 

[iridized]

If it turns more east toward Sarasota and goes to a CAT 4, I’ll leave. I could go to the east coast to my aunt & uncles mobile home. But that’s not very reassuring. My friends are west of Savannah GA now but that’s 6-7 hours north. Trying to evacuate on I-75N is an exercise in futility.

I’m in a concrete block house and I’m not in any evacuation zone. My house is probably the highest in the neighborhood. I think we will get 50 MPH winds with a ton of rain. My sweet potato bed might get some water way out in the back yard. But it drains very quick.

I’m more concerned about my oldest. She’s currently in Hawaii. She’s flying back Sat I think. I told her to change her flight to Atlanta and ride with her boyfriend to his place in Dothan AL. It would not surprise me if her flight into Panama City a beach is cancelled.

I'm on Lido and have lived here 40 plus years. Been through more named and unnamed storms than I can count. My house is 70 years old and 9" above sea level so not very high but never have had any real serious flooding issues. The worst was an unnamed storm that creeped up overnight in the mid 80s with no warning.

What can't be replaced is always moved offsite the beginning of the season and not returned until xmas time. It's a xmas tradition for the kids to move the stuff back home. Yesterday I booked a flight out of town for this evening. Luckily it is just myself now; it was much more difficult to evacuate with kids and pets.

 

[Lexiintoronto]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1838555967010508904

‘M’ stands for hurricane 3+.

 

[Lexiintoronto]

If it turns more east toward Sarasota and goes to a CAT 4, I’ll leave. I could go to the east coast to my aunt & uncles mobile home. But that’s not very reassuring. My friends are west of Savannah GA now but that’s 6-7 hours north. Trying to evacuate on I-75N is an exercise in futility.

I’m in a concrete block house and I’m not in any evacuation zone. My house is probably the highest in the neighborhood. I think we will get 50 MPH winds with a ton of rain. My sweet potato bed might get some water way out in the back yard. But it drains very quick.

I’m more concerned about my oldest. She’s currently in Hawaii. She’s flying back Sat I think. I told her to change her flight to Atlanta and ride with her boyfriend to his place in Dothan AL. It would not surprise me if her flight into Panama City a beach is cancelled.

I’m worried for you and everyone in it’s path. I think you’ll do well because you’re level-headed and prepared.

 

[UnapologeticallyAspie]

The east side of the storm is the messy side, so there is that to consider. I agree, a mobile home on the east coast of FL. does not sound reassuring at all!

I thought it was the backside of storms that are the messy side? I’m pretty sure that’s what Reed Timmer said. Unless the East side in this case is the back side? (My sense of direction is horrible!)

Also for anyone who cares Reed Timmer is on the spectrum! Not me fangirling or anything.

moo ymmv

 

[UnapologeticallyAspie]

View attachment 533212
View attachment 533213

https://twitter.com/x/status/1838555967010508904

‘M’ stands for hurricane 3+.

A.K.A. a Major hurricane.

 

[PayrollNerd]

I thought it was the backside of storms that are the messy side? I’m pretty sure that’s what Reed Timmer said. Unless the East side in this case is the back side? (My sense of direction is horrible!)

Also for anyone who cares Reed Timmer is on the spectrum! Not me fangirling or anything.

moo ymmv

When they say back side, east side, right side or counter clockwise direction, they’re all referring to the same thing. We’ve always referred to it as the tail as that’s what we get slapped with for days after the center has moved north.

 

[killarney rose]

PayrollNerd, I think she’ll be fine in Dothan. Local charts here have it moving more to the east so that we will be on the outer western edges. I look for rain and maybe a bit of wind if it continues as predicted.

 

[PayrollNerd]

Tropical Tidbits

Tropical weather and Atlantic hurricane information, analysis, and forecasts by Levi Cowan.

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[PayrollNerd]

PayrollNerd, I think she’ll be fine in Dothan. Local charts here have it moving more to the east so that we will be on the outer western edges. I look for rain and maybe a bit of wind if it continues as predicted.

I think that's her best option at this point. She texted me from HI late last night (6 hours behind). They leave Thursday night for Atlanta, assuming that flight stands. The flight from Atlanta into to PCB is what is unknown. I suspect she'll try to get the airline to cancel the last leg and unload her luggage. Then she and her boyfriend can drive to Dothan.

 

[Stunned]

When they say back side, east side, right side or counter clockwise direction, they’re all referring to the same thing. We’ve always referred to it as the tail as that’s what we get slapped with for days after the center has moved north.

This