Well it depends.. if no connection to the area or profile.. then the chances of that occurring in such a small area with huge properties on a dead end street with neighbours with full view and some out and about.. I'd say 'nil'/never. jmo.
If you are *that* person, then why not visit Kendall on ANY other day, and find the entire town's children happily walking to school unattended, playing unattended in their yards, visiting other child friends, perhaps visiting the corner store to buy candy or whatever.. why not go on any OTHER day and snatch one of the many children who were said to just live a normal, unafraid existence (until this event occurred)?
If however, you were the same as you have suggested, BUT just happened to be hanging around your house doing yardwork or something, and the sky opened up for the sun and the stars and the moon to meet to provide this once in a lifetime rarity of an unattended toddler coming within feet of you... that seems like a possibility.. however, what *doesn't* seem possible, is what happened after that? How did such an improbable, unplanned, once in a lifetime, event like that, also come away with no mistakes, no clues, no body, no signs, even after 4 years? And with all of the police presence and searching and questioning.. nothing. How would he have taken him, and where to, and how did he dispose of the evidence without ever a trace, without ever being seen?