AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - # 9

[nursebeeme]

I read late Sunday night about the other 2 people stepping up as being in the church video. TPD did come out yesterday and admitted it was the wrong day that the security company had given them. They realized it after talking to 3 out of the 5 saying it was Saturday night & verified it with the company is my understanding.

A goof up yes, incompetent police force, no. jmo

bbm: I completely agree. I think overall they have done/continue to do an outstanding job.

I hope the family does some interviews to help generate more leads and tips for the TPD and the FBI.

 

[AnaTeresa]

I have been patiently waiting for a week and a half for them to show me they arent clueless. Each day confirms to me they are.

And what is so ironic most LE dont give this many PCs but this LE does and the bottom line all the PCs they give....... amount to nothing.

IMO

I can't tell if they are clueless or simply keeping their cards close to the vest. I am concerned with the error with the video and how long it took them to realize it was incorrect, particularly because they were working with other agencies. One would hope that would have been picked up on much sooner. I'm really waffling over LE in this case. I don't know if they simply haven't any viable leads, if they are Keystone cops, or if they are playing a very strategic game with their statements.

 

[TxLady2]

To get little kids to describe age or height to LE, they use comparison techniques: "Is he older or younger than grandpa? Older or younger than your teen cousin? Pick someone out of these pictures who looks as old as the man who was there: " Then they show them pics of people whose ages they know. It's not too hard.

As far as why they wouldn't scream, over and over we have seen cases where a perp busts into a home and takes a child. Polly Klaas was in a whole room of little girls. No one made a peep. Elizabeth Smart and her sister were both there and awakened. Her sister did not move for hours. Jessica Lunsford also went quietly. And countless kids are molested by uncles, fathers, cousins, etc., in the night, in houses full of people.

It is exceedingly easy to keep little kids quiet: "Make a sound and your dead. Make a sound and your dog is dead. Make a sound and your baby sister is dead. Make a sound and I will kill mommy and daddy."


I agree. I think they should be able to find this person. He must be close and he must have been watching.

And I agree with the profiler. Yes, it could be a pedophile excited by what happened to Isabel. But this is a very, very brazen crime. He entered a home and molested three kids while there. That matches the brazenness necessary to taking a child from her bedroom, into the night. The chances that these crimes are not linked are remote, IMO.

It's not the lack of noise that I am concerned with. How on earth could he subdue 3 little girls at one time, or 2 others while he's molesting 1? At least one of them should have been able to run out the door and run to their mother or another adult, and that's what most scared kids would do, if they were not held or tied down. This has me puzzled.

 

[LisaB]

O/T
This morning, after dressing for work, I realized I had not put out my garbage cans last night. I took my kitchen trash out (I don't take anything perishable out until trash day due to rats) and walked it out the back door. When I got to the trash cans, I found one had a bag of grass clippings in the bottom, so I put it outside the fence, added the kitchen trash, and covered it. Then I noticed a lumpy "contractors" trash bag (larger and thicker than a regular trash bag) next to the cans that I had used to bag up a really decrepit looking tea rose I dug out last week. I grabbed my second garbage can, and then realized it had 6" of water in the bottom of it from rain. Plus two drowned rats, stinking to high heaven. I drained off as much water as possible and took the can outside the fenced area. I attempted to carry the rose bush (in the bag) out to the can. I held it as far as I could from me to avoid getting mud on my dress or running my nylons on the thorns. It was REALLY heavy and it was all I could do to get it into the can. It took five minutes of trying to swing it up and into the can. Can fell over once or twice, bag was hanging out too much, etc. If anyone saw me, they would have HAD to think there was a child's body in it. It was lumpy and misshapen, obviously heavy, and I was holding it at a distance. If a "Nosy Nellie" had come along to check, they would also have smelled the decomposing rats under the bag in the can and called police.

Point is... I bet NOBODY NOTICED, even though I was in view of several homes (the lots are 16' wide with a 10' alley between rows) and it was almost 8am on trash day when you would EXPECT to run into lots of people in the alley putting THEIR trash out. Unless it bears directly on them, most people either don't notcie what is going on around them, or don't want to get involved.

 

[GracieLu]

I wish I had the same faith in this police department. So far they have looked like the Keystone Cops, imo.

It was longer than two days before they realized they had goofed and released the wrong video. And I think LE lied to cover their own butts when they said they knew about the 'mystery' man on the tape. I dont think an experienced detective could have missed that man lurking around. Imo, I dont even think LE looked at that tape closely and may not have any other tapes they have had since the day after Isa went missing. If they had they would have immediately asked the sixth person to come forward.

I dont think this is some kind of Columbo bumbling strategy this LE is doing. I think they are clueless and have no idea where Isa is or who took her out of her bedroom.

It shows, imo, they are doing shoddy investigative work and that worries me immensely for that is one of the worst things that can happen to Isa and her family.

Look how long it took them to even realize their gross error of releasing the wrong tape? And where is the tape from that night? What is taking so long now?

Imo, this LE has gone at this willy nilly from the very beginning. They know nothing to say in their redundant PCs because they have learned nothing that would lead them to where Isa is or who took her.

IMOO

omgosh, my opinion as well! Praying the FBI has taken over! I will say this ---- from reading the scanner thread the police certainly have a lot of "interesting" people they have to "deal" with in the area... maybe they are overwhelmed?

 

[utahagen]

Frayed Knot wrote, "...statistically speaking, an unknown intruder taking Isabel in the dead of night from her home is improbable...I have to stick with my gut on this and think that Isa was 'disappeared' by her parents or persons known to the family."

Praise God for some common sense! My posts keep getting removed, but I'll give it another try.

If Isabel's parents were at least showing up at the Search Command Center every day, I would suspend disbeleif (for now). However, their histrionic performance the ONE time they deigned to address the masses, coupled with their silence since, tell me the parents are not frantically looking for Isabel.

Who is the sex offender or kidnapper or bogeyman capable of abducting a six year old child out of her house without waking the parents, the brothers, or the dogs? And how did this magical person spirit her away without anyone seeing him do so?

In the court of law, one is assumed innocent until proven guilty. However, if your child disappears when he/she is under your care, you have some explaining to do!

<modsnip>. If my little boy were grabbed, my only concern would be getting him back, especially in the first weeks. My point is that innocent parents are not going to focus on their own reputations. Almost everybody was supicious of Ed Smart in the early days after Elizabeth was kidnapped, but he hung in there and cooperated with the cops and people stopped pointing fingers long before his daughter was even found.

I susect the Tuscon police have much more than they are telling the public. Watch for the Celises to get a hot shot defense attorney very soon.

 

[AnaTeresa]

It's not the lack of noise that I am concerned with. How on earth could he subdue 3 little girls at one time, or 2 others while he's molesting 1? At least one of them should have been able to run out the door and run to their mother or another adult, and that's what most scared kids would do, if they were not held or tied down. This has me puzzled.

Plenty of people much older than these girls have frozen up during emergency situations. We can't always predict how someone will react, particularly a young child. Threats alone have easily subdued much older persons.

 

[TxLady2]

I believe and have heard that they have their eye on someone and they either cant locate this person or they dont have a solid enough case yet to make a move but that is just what I am hearing in the local grapevine.

I hope you're right... or rather what you're hearing is right. It could very well be true, because they need probable cause to arrest someone, and good evidence in order to charge them. If they do have a suspect they don't want that leaked out, for obvious reasons.

I've known of cases where it looks like they're not making any progress and next thing you know, somebody is in jail.

 

[PAXIMUS]

same here...just one dog though...i can only handle him... Also, I had video cameras put around the house as well...you just can't be too safe.

They break in my house they better catch me in the shower, that is the only time my buddy Colt is more than 3 inches from my reach.:rocker:

 

[GracieLu]

I guess I am not sure what one would have LE doing, that they are not doing. Not knowing what they have learned, if anything, I don't feel in a position to judge their status or progress. But I also do not hold out great hopes of this case being solved, as these types of cases just are not easy to figure out. LE has to be able to rule out scenarios to move forward and in so many of them, they don't seem to be able to do so. I don't know what the answer is...but this LE seems no less competent than the others who have not solver their similar cases...JMO

I guess my questioning whether they are doing a good job stems from the fact that they are not saying much. This is just my opinion, and I am usually wrong, lol, but why not give more basic information. Why not tell us more of what happened on the night Isabel was abducted? Maybe they have given more information and I missed it? They questioned the parents for hours, certainly they know more then what they are saying... The thing is, there are so many wonderful sleuthers here and there is nothing to sleuth....

 

[oceanblueeyes]

I know this is not a popular view, but statistically speaking, an unknown intruder taking Isabel in the dead of night from her home is improbable.

Not impossible, and it certainly DOES happen. But with the scraps of info we have so far gleaned (which amount to almost nothing), I have to stick with my gut on this and think that Isa was 'disappeared' by her parents or persons known to the family.

I do not believe this other case involving the three girls is connected to Isa. And I am also losing heart that Isa's body will ever be recovered.

Sadly, I think she has joined Sky, Jhessye, Aliayah, Gabriel, Lisa, Ava and far, far too many other sweet souls and no one will ever be held accountable.

Which is why I also believe we are at the piedmont of an epidemic. It now seems to be a conviction-free crime to disappear your own children.

Of course, MOO.


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Statistics or odds do not pertain to the individual missing child since there is no way of knowing which statistical group Isa is in. Even if one other child has been taken it doesnt mean Isa was not taken too.

I think it happens way more than we are told. So many missing children's cases remain unsolved. So how do we know it is as rare as the USA likes to boast that it is? Canada seems much more open and honest about the kidnappings and murders of children. Someone put a link up on one of the threads and the count of kidnapped/murdered is much higher than ours and their population is lower.

Until a child is found dead or alive they arent even put into any statistical category and until the perp is convicted.

In fact there are only around 400 cases a year where a child under 10 is murdered by one of their bio parents (31% murdered by their fathers 30% murdered by their mothers) Children being murdered... no matter who does it..according to the DOJ statistics is rare compared to child population here.

But time and time we read or see on the news where a perv has climbed in a window or invaded a home and molested a young child or taken them out of their home and molested them elsewhere. Some of the time they let the child live ......some of the time they do not.

Sadly, I think she has joined those like Samantha Runion, Dylan Greone, Jessica Lunsford, Pauli Klass, Danielle Van Dam, Somer Thompson and so many more. Even though it would be horrible for her to endure... I would much rather this end in a miracle like it did for Elizabeth Smart, Shawn Hornbeck, Steven Stayner or the Duggard cases.

I perfect agree. People should go by their gut instincts and mine tell me none of Isa's family is involved. I have trusted my instincts for many years and they have actually served me quite well.

imo

 

[dog.gone.cute]

I know this is not a popular view, but statistically speaking, an unknown intruder taking Isabel in the dead of night from her home is improbable.

Not impossible, and it certainly DOES happen. But with the scraps of info we have so far gleaned (which amount to almost nothing), I have to stick with my gut on this and think that Isa was 'disappeared' by her parents or persons known to the family.

I do not believe this other case involving the three girls is connected to Isa. And I am also losing heart that Isa's body will ever be recovered.

Sadly, I think she has joined Sky, Jhessye, Aliayah, Gabriel, Lisa, Ava and far, far too many other sweet souls and no one will ever be held accountable.

Which is why I also believe we are at the piedmont of an epidemic. It now seems to be a conviction-free crime to disappear your own children.

Of course, MOO.

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:rocker: I totally agree ! Very well said ... Very, very sad, but unfortunately true ...

:moo: :moo: :moo:

 

[mck16]

Frayed Knot wrote, "...statistically speaking, an unknown intruder taking Isabel in the dead of night from her home is improbable...I have to stick with my gut on this and think that Isa was 'disappeared' by her parents or persons known to the family."

Praise God for some common sense! My posts keep getting removed, but I'll give it another try.

If Isabel's parents were at least showing up at the Search Command Center every day, I would suspend disbeleif (for now). However, their histrionic performance the ONE time they deigned to address the masses, coupled with their silence since, tell me the parents are not frantically looking for Isabel.

Who is the sex offender or kidnapper or bogeyman capable of abducting a six year old child out of her house without waking the parents, the brothers, or the dogs? And how did this magical person spirit her away without anyone seeing him do so? In the court of law, one is assumed innocent until proven guilty. However, if your child disappears when he/she is under your care, you have some explaining to do!

<modsnip>. If my little boy were grabbed, my only concern would be getting him back, especially in the first weeks. My point is that innocent parents are not going to focus on their own reputations. Almost everybody was supicious of Ed Smart in the early days after Elizabeth was kidnapped, but he hung in there and cooperated with the cops and people stopped pointing fingers long before his daughter was even found.

I susect the Tuscon police have much more than they are telling the public. Watch for the Celises to get a hot shot defense attorney very soon.

We are hearing right now about a man who entered a home and bedroom where 3 girls were sleeping. How did he get in without anyone hearing him? We are also hearing that one of the girls was raped. How did he do that and keep the other two quiet? We are also hearing that apparently there was indication something was amiss but he did escape. How did he do that? And who is to say that if he had not been discovered he would not have abducted one of those little girls? jmo

My point is it could be done.

 

[LisaB]

I have always felt finding a missing child is the most difficult task to do. Heck, we can lose our house-keys, and take hours to locate them only to find them in the front door or in the lock on the car truck.

With children and adults, which direction do you look and how far do you look is nearly impossible unless there are signifcant clues left behind.

There is so much area to cover, and educated guesses on which area to cover.

Finding keys should be WAY easier since they are where you left them. A child missing from her bed is not anyplace you might have misplaced her, IMO. I think this is why there was speculation a few days ago that if her family had taken 2 cars to the ballgame so Mom could take Isa home right after the game while Dad stayed to clean up with the boys, there could have been SOME KIND of miscommunication and she COULD somehow have been left behind by BOTH parents, each believing hte other had her with them. If Isa's door was closed, and Becky was asleep when he got home, Sergio might have assumed Isa was ALSO in bed asleep, and sent the boys to bed. In the morning, Becky left for work without checking in on (and risking waking) the kids, assuming Sergio had brought all three home with him.

I know it's been generally agreed that this could not have happened, but it seems like something that COULD happen in a "perfect storm" kind of situation.

Or could just be "wishful thinking" because she might have turned up within hours if that had happened. The parents "neglect" at leaving her behind would look bad, but the end result would be a good one.

 

[Lark2]

Frayed Knot wrote, "...statistically speaking, an unknown intruder taking Isabel in the dead of night from her home is improbable...I have to stick with my gut on this and think that Isa was 'disappeared' by her parents or persons known to the family."

Praise God for some common sense! My posts keep getting removed, but I'll give it another try.

If Isabel's parents were at least showing up at the Search Command Center every day, I would suspend disbeleif (for now). However, their histrionic performance the ONE time they deigned to address the masses, coupled with their silence since, tell me the parents are not frantically looking for Isabel.

Who is the sex offender or kidnapper or bogeyman capable of abducting a six year old child out of her house without waking the parents, the brothers, or the dogs? And how did this magical person spirit her away without anyone seeing him do so?

In the court of law, one is assumed innocent until proven guilty. However, if your child disappears when he/she is under your care, you have some explaining to do!

<modsnip> This makes no sense to me. If my little boy were grabbed, my only concern would be getting him back, especially in the first weeks. My point is that innocent parents are not going to focus on their own reputations. Almost everybody was supicious of Ed Smart in the early days after Elizabeth was kidnapped, but he hung in there and cooperated with the cops and people stopped pointing fingers long before his daughter was even found.

I susect the Tuscon police have much more than they are telling the public. Watch for the Celises to get a hot shot defense attorney very soon.

Amen to this and the original post!!

To add to it, when a child goes missing, the parents/ family have a responsibility to help find the child - in any way they can. And in this day and age, that involves media.

Meanwhile, I shudder to think how much money has already been expended here, while LE builds their case. Now that they are deploying resources responsibily while in the building phase, some here are mocking them and urging them to "do their job." That's what's they've been doing, from Day 1! Perhaps some just don't like where it's taken them.

 

[AnaTeresa]

We are hearing right now about a man who entered a home and bedroom where 3 girls were sleeping. How did he get in without anyone hearing him? We are also hearing that one of the girls was raped. How did he do that and keep the other two quiet? We are also hearing that apparently there was indication something was amiss but he did escape. How did he do that? And who is to say that if he had not been discovered he would not have abducted one of those little girls? jmo

My point is it could be done.

I very much agree. We've had more than one case here where a perp snuck into a house while people were out - one where he was hiding in a child's closet. We've had numerous cases where family members and dogs were home, yet perps managed to break in silently and steal children. While statistically rare, you never known at the outset of a case whether this case will follow the stats, or be one that is out of the norm.

 

[GracieLu]

Frayed Knot wrote, "...statistically speaking, an unknown intruder taking Isabel in the dead of night from her home is improbable...I have to stick with my gut on this and think that Isa was 'disappeared' by her parents or persons known to the family."

Praise God for some common sense! My posts keep getting removed, but I'll give it another try.

If Isabel's parents were at least showing up at the Search Command Center every day, I would suspend disbeleif (for now). However, their histrionic performance the ONE time they deigned to address the masses, coupled with their silence since, tell me the parents are not frantically looking for Isabel.

Who is the sex offender or kidnapper or bogeyman capable of abducting a six year old child out of her house without waking the parents, the brothers, or the dogs? And how did this magical person spirit her away without anyone seeing him do so?

In the court of law, one is assumed innocent until proven guilty. However, if your child disappears when he/she is under your care, you have some explaining to do!

<modsnip> If my little boy were grabbed, my only concern would be getting him back, especially in the first weeks. My point is that innocent parents are not going to focus on their own reputations. Almost everybody was supicious of Ed Smart in the early days after Elizabeth was kidnapped, but he hung in there and cooperated with the cops and people stopped pointing fingers long before his daughter was even found.

I susect the Tuscon police have much more than they are telling the public. Watch for the Celises to get a hot shot defense attorney very soon.

with all due respect, although rare, it happens - Jessica Lunsford is just one example.

 

[Lark2]

I read late Sunday night about the other 2 people stepping up as being in the church video. TPD did come out yesterday and admitted it was the wrong day that the security company had given them. They realized it after talking to 3 out of the 5 saying it was Saturday night & verified it with the company is my understanding.

A goof up yes, incompetent police force, no. jmo

I just listened to yesterday's press conference and Pacheco said LE requested Friday's tape and the company gave them Saturday. They had no reason to question the company until the people in the tape spoke up. Where's the conspiracy?

 

[LisaB]

I can't tell if they are clueless or simply keeping their cards close to the vest. I am concerned with the error with the video and how long it took them to realize it was incorrect, particularly because they were working with other agencies. One would hope that would have been picked up on much sooner. I'm really waffling over LE in this case. I don't know if they simply haven't any viable leads, if they are Keystone cops, or if they are playing a very strategic game with their statements.

Without a date stamp on the video, how COULD they know, until one of the "mystery group" identified himself and told them they had the wrong day. They requested a certain bit of video frm the surveillance company, and were told that was what had been provided. How could they possibly have known it was wrong until one of the people in it told them?. It's hard to blame LE for this.

 

[MaryAnn]

with all due respect, although rare, it happens - Jessica Lunsford is just one example.

There are too many. Danielle Van Damm, Elizabeth Smart, Jaycee Dugard and Polly Klaas. We could go on and on....

Children aren't even safe in their own Beds anymore!!