Found Deceased CA - Fang Jin, 47, flew to LA from China, train to Palm Springs, Morongo Basin, 21 Jul 2023, w/ John Root Fitzpatrick, 55, (fnd dec.), 30 Jul ‘23 #3

[Jade]

"Nothing in the vehicle indicating they were planning on staying in the desert or camping."

I appreciate the comment, but has it been verified by LE or mainstream media?

It gives a very different flavor to the day, doesn't it? It makes it sound as if there was only a day drive planned, without preparations for an overnight stay. As Morongo Valley would be about 1.5-hour drive from Ocotillo Wells, that would be a feasible day trip from his trailer, and no one in established campgrounds appears to have found an abandoned campsite that could have been theirs in the immediate area of Borrego Springs or even Fish Creek. Bring some sandwiches, snacks, and a few drinks, not much more.

It could also be a nighttime drive planned for stargazing. Drive from Morongo Valley to the area near Ocotillo Wells to arrive in the dark or near-dusk as the temperatures cool down. Perhaps drive along Fish Creed Wash in the dark and end up near Harper Flat. But somehow, end up damaging the vehicle enough so that enough tires are flat and the vehicle undriveable. End up having to spend a day or two in the blazing heat, perhaps with only small provisions. Heat shock sets in, then heat stroke.

It's a plausible scenario, but I think awfully dangerous to plan a nighttime drive on a non-paved road with areas of deep sand and / or rocks, unless you have recently done the drive.

BBM
Verified insider Mark1969’s post indicates that information is from LE: SD Sheriff

'In late August/September, John's truck was located in a very remote area of the desert not utilized by camper/hikers/ or off-roaders. The vehicle had 3 flat tires and was not able to drive. There was nothing in the vehicle indicating they were planning on staying in the desert or camping. In early September, campers located human remains about 3 miles from the truck in a wash.'
This is the last info concerning the car we received from J.D. from SD sheriff.org on nov 6th

IMO

 

[Sarah McGregor]

Look at that crazy road! They wouldn't have to drive down that road to see exactly the same stars as if they were in those hills, so I don't see this as a star-gazing adventure.

Me either. I think you meant to reply to Herat, not me.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

'In late August/September, John's truck was located in a very remote area of the desert not utilized by camper/hikers/ or off-roaders. The vehicle had 3 flat tires and was not able to drive. There was nothing in the vehicle indicating they were planning on staying in the desert or camping. In early September, campers located human remains about 3 miles from the truck in a wash.'
This is the last info concerning the car we received from J.D. from SD sheriff.org on nov 6th

BBM.

I've only just noticed this, and perhaps I'm reading too much into it. But if LE are saying the remains were found "in a wash" that might suggest they believe the remains were washed down from a higher location.

 

[10ofRods]

BBM.

I've only just noticed this, and perhaps I'm reading too much into it. But if LE are saying the remains were found "in a wash" that might suggest they believe the remains were washed down from a higher location.

No, it's just a geographic/geologic descriptor. Although it does mean that investigators will look for such action - especially as they know there was rain in the third week of August. The remains *could* have come down from a higher location. It doesn't indicate about what investigators believe about how the remains ended up where they are - Pinyon Wash is in fact what is printed on the map (and there are other, minor washes. I guess Harper Canyon has layers of sedimentary rock or something, to have gotten its name.

Although, I believe @Herat's view that a likely scenario is that they used Pinyon Wash to try and self-rescue - it was one of the better marked ways out of their predicament, with truck disabled south of Harper Flat and in a place where almost no one goes. It would have led them eventually to the trailhead/parking area where people wanting to hike up and down the wash might be - and then there was an actual road leading to the highway.

And it's true we may never know - although it's pretty easy to tell if a truck has been moved by water (harder with human remains, but if flood waters moved them very far - even just a few yards - there would be "polishing" of the bones (microscopic sanding of various parts of the bones). Also, remains settle into the land/sand differently when water is subsiding and stranding the bones in a wash. All of this is in the domain of forensic geologists and specialized forensic anthropologists (there are lots of people who specialize in how bones look in various conditions in the deserts).

This is one very difficult to understand tragedy, truly.

 

[RickshawFan]

Me either. I think you meant to reply to Herat, not me.

The photo of the road in your post....

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

No, it's just a geographic/geologic descriptor. Although it does mean that investigators will look for such action - especially as they know there was rain in the third week of August. The remains *could* have come down from a higher location. It doesn't indicate about what investigators believe about how the remains ended up where they are - Pinyon Wash is in fact what is printed on the map (and there are other, minor washes. I guess Harper Canyon has layers of sedimentary rock or something, to have gotten its name.

Although, I believe @Herat's view that a likely scenario is that they used Pinyon Wash to try and self-rescue - it was one of the better marked ways out of their predicament, with truck disabled south of Harper Flat and in a place where almost no one goes. It would have led them eventually to the trailhead/parking area where people wanting to hike up and down the wash might be - and then there was an actual road leading to the highway.

And it's true we may never know - although it's pretty easy to tell if a truck has been moved by water (harder with human remains, but if flood waters moved them very far - even just a few yards - there would be "polishing" of the bones (microscopic sanding of various parts of the bones). Also, remains settle into the land/sand differently when water is subsiding and stranding the bones in a wash. All of this is in the domain of forensic geologists and specialized forensic anthropologists (there are lots of people who specialize in how bones look in various conditions in the deserts).

This is one very difficult to understand tragedy, truly.

Hasn't everything so far suggested the remains were found in Harper Canyon, not Pinyon Wash?

Pinyon Wash and Harper Canyon are both at a similar elevation east-west of each other, with a mountain ridge in between. If Fang and John had died in Pinyon Wash I don't see how their remains could have ended up in the Canyon. But they probably could be washed into either Pinyon Wash or Harper Canyon from up on Harper Flat, closer to the truck.

 

[10ofRods]

Hasn't everything so far suggested the remains were found in Harper Canyon, not Pinyon Wash?

Pinyon Wash and Harper Canyon are both at a similar elevation east-west of each other, with a mountain ridge in between. If Fang and John had died in Pinyon Wash I don't see how their remains could have ended up in the Canyon. But they probably could be washed into either Pinyon Wash or Harper Canyon from up on Harper Flat, closer to the truck.

I don't think it's clear - but to me, both places are fairly similar (maybe in a couple of decades, Pinyon Wash will be renamed Pinyon Canyon).

They are very similar. If it's certain that their remains are in Harper Canyon, the same geophysical properties remain. Being washed *off* a flat is a little more unusual (I bet the flat had maybe 5-7 inches of water, not enough to push a human body anywhere, on a flat). BUT, if they were already in either Pinyon Wash (the better choice in terms of making it to human contact) OR Harper Canyon, esp. if they were at least one third of the way down, the water could become very much like rapids. I've been amazed at how even...ditches? tiny ravines? can suddenly flash full with water (and silt) when it rains in the desert.
I see constant repetition that JRF in particular was in "Harper Canyon" (so I assume Fang was too), but it's all based off one earlier news article. I"m not sure where they were. I have seen no clear statement from the Coroner as to where they were. We don't really know where the truck was found, except that it was south of Harper Flat. Possibly near the Pinyon Wash turn-out.

If they walked as directly as possible toward aid, they would have taken Pinyon Wash, IMO - unless someone thought Harper Canyon was easier or closer to cell resources. I believe it is Harper Canyon that has a dam near the bottom which might indicate "civilization" to someone not too familiar with the area.

What I'm reading is that remains were found in "the general area of the Harper Canyon trailhead" - which is confusing. They never made it to the trail? Which trailhead? The one at the lower elevation or the higher? What's odd, to me, about being found near the trailhead is that it implies they were *not* in the Canyon itself. Not even sure how to find anything but this map helped:

Harper Canyon

borregohiking.com

The truck is SOUTH of Harper Flat, so would not have been close to the Harper Canyon Trailhead. They therefore crossed the flat (no way, IMO that water washed their bones across the flat) and descended by Harper Canyon (the less traveled of the two options). Of course, without cell service, they might not have known that. Reports on the Harper Canyon Trail make it sound less well marked and more difficult than Pinyon Wash - but it could have been the first place they came to.

If it is Harper Canyon where they were found, and they had a good map, it could have been a deliberate choice to risk the scramble and get down more quickly. Let's assume the "trailhead" of Harper Canyon is the one that people use when approaching from the 78 (most common approach, IMO, as described here:

Harper Canyon

borregohiking.com

This would mean either a hot slog across the widest section of Harper Flat OR that they were already positioned near that side of Harper Flat. They would have descended through the top of the Canyon, I think, which looks something like this:



Nearly everyone who goes all the way up (and then back, since that's where one's car would be) remarks on how steep it is (this isn't all the way to Harper Flat).

If that's what they did, it must have been grueling and nearly impossible at night. I'm not saying Pinyon Wash was much better, but both ends of Pinyon Wash are better marked and the reason there's a drop off point is that people have someone drop them off and do it one way (down - which is what JRF and JF would have been doing). But JRF might not have known that Pinyon Wash was more popular and more likely to have people in the parking at the bottom.

Note the easy approach/bottom of Pinyon Wash:



In the end, it all seems very much the same to me - but if they were indeed found in Harper Canyon, either the truck was further east than I imagined or they spent time going farther across Harper Flat that I had hoped.

Could all be a matter of relying on simple maps rather than topo maps (and of losing cell service at some point - a very common problem). He could have been lost, is what I'm saying.

Not "everything" has indicated Harper Canyon, from my point of view. I'm reading the Anza Borrego Foundation FB page and also the twitter feed of the woman who turned the skull pictures into LE.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

I don't think it's clear - but to me, both places are fairly similar (maybe in a couple of decades, Pinyon Wash will be renamed Pinyon Canyon).

They are very similar. If it's certain that their remains are in Harper Canyon, the same geophysical properties remain. Being washed *off* a flat is a little more unusual (I bet the flat had maybe 5-7 inches of water, not enough to push a human body anywhere, on a flat). BUT, if they were already in either Pinyon Wash (the better choice in terms of making it to human contact) OR Harper Canyon, esp. if they were at least one third of the way down, the water could become very much like rapids. I've been amazed at how even...ditches? tiny ravines? can suddenly flash full with water (and silt) when it rains in the desert.
I see constant repetition that JRF in particular was in "Harper Canyon" (so I assume Fang was too), but it's all based off one earlier news article. I"m not sure where they were. I have seen no clear statement from the Coroner as to where they were. We don't really know where the truck was found, except that it was south of Harper Flat. Possibly near the Pinyon Wash turn-out.

If they walked as directly as possible toward aid, they would have taken Pinyon Wash, IMO - unless someone thought Harper Canyon was easier or closer to cell resources. I believe it is Harper Canyon that has a dam near the bottom which might indicate "civilization" to someone not too familiar with the area.

What I'm reading is that remains were found in "the general area of the Harper Canyon trailhead" - which is confusing. They never made it to the trail? Which trailhead? The one at the lower elevation or the higher? What's odd, to me, about being found near the trailhead is that it implies they were *not* in the Canyon itself. Not even sure how to find anything but this map helped:

Harper Canyon

borregohiking.com

The truck is SOUTH of Harper Flat, so would not have been close to the Harper Canyon Trailhead. They therefore crossed the flat (no way, IMO that water washed their bones across the flat) and descended by Harper Canyon (the less traveled of the two options). Of course, without cell service, they might not have known that. Reports on the Harper Canyon Trail make it sound less well marked and more difficult than Pinyon Wash - but it could have been the first place they came to.

If it is Harper Canyon where they were found, and they had a good map, it could have been a deliberate choice to risk the scramble and get down more quickly. Let's assume the "trailhead" of Harper Canyon is the one that people use when approaching from the 78 (most common approach, IMO, as described here:

Harper Canyon

borregohiking.com

This would mean either a hot slog across the widest section of Harper Flat OR that they were already positioned near that side of Harper Flat. They would have descended through the top of the Canyon, I think, which looks something like this:

View attachment 461570

Nearly everyone who goes all the way up (and then back, since that's where one's car would be) remarks on how steep it is (this isn't all the way to Harper Flat).

If that's what they did, it must have been grueling and nearly impossible at night. I'm not saying Pinyon Wash was much better, but both ends of Pinyon Wash are better marked and the reason there's a drop off point is that people have someone drop them off and do it one way (down - which is what JRF and JF would have been doing). But JRF might not have known that Pinyon Wash was more popular and more likely to have people in the parking at the bottom.

Note the easy approach/bottom of Pinyon Wash:

View attachment 461571

In the end, it all seems very much the same to me - but if they were indeed found in Harper Canyon, either the truck was further east than I imagined or they spent time going farther across Harper Flat that I had hoped.

Could all be a matter of relying on simple maps rather than topo maps (and of losing cell service at some point - a very common problem). He could have been lost, is what I'm saying.

Not "everything" has indicated Harper Canyon, from my point of view. I'm reading the Anza Borrego Foundation FB page and also the twitter feed of the woman who turned the skull pictures into LE.

I think it's important to note that Harper Flat has a distinct gradient down towards Harper Canyon. Along the southern edge, and along the western edge where Pinyon Mountain Road and Pinyon Wash are located, the elevation is about 2,660ft (810m). At the north-eastern corner where Harper Canyon is located, the elevation is only approximately 2,260ft (690m).

By my calculations, 2,660ft to 2,260ft over the approximately 3 mile length of Harper Flat is a roughly 2.5% gradient. The topography of the area suggests most of the water building up on Harper Flat would gush down Harper Canyon.

Do you think a 2.5% gradient would be enough to carry remains "downstream" across the Flat towards the Canyon?

https://www.topozone.com/california/san-diego-ca/flat/harper-flat/

 

[mark1969]

BBM
Verified insider Mark1969’s post indicates that information is from LE: SD Sheriff




IMO

Indeed we received exactly the mentionned info of SD Sheriff department by email

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

I think it's important to note that Harper Flat has a distinct gradient down towards Harper Canyon. Along the southern edge, and along the western edge where Pinyon Mountain Road and Pinyon Wash are located, the elevation is about 2,660ft (810m). At the north-eastern corner where Harper Canyon is located, the elevation is only approximately 2,260ft (690m).

By my calculations, 2,660ft to 2,260ft over the approximately 3 mile length of Harper Flat is a roughly 2.5% gradient. The topography of the area suggests most of the water building up on Harper Flat would gush down Harper Canyon.

Do you think a 2.5% gradient would be enough to carry remains "downstream" across the Flat towards the Canyon?

https://www.topozone.com/california/san-diego-ca/flat/harper-flat/

View attachment 461587

Just amending my own post. I was quite tired when I calculated the 2.5% gradient using the 3-mile length of Harper Flat.

The downward gradient is actually south to north, across the narrower width of Harper Flat. So it's not 3 miles, it's more like 1.5-1.75 miles. That means the gradient is even steeper, probably closer to a 4% gradient.

A 4% gradient is a pretty steep slope for water to flow down. And IMO it shows exactly why Harper Canyon became a canyon: water has been channeled into that north-eastern corner of the Flat for a loooong time.

 

[10ofRods]

4% on a plateau will indeed cause water to flow in the lower direction - but it won't be rushing until it gets to the edge of its harder surface (that's why it's a plateau - there's some kind of harder rock under it or it too would be a gully or a canyon). While Harper Canyon is called a canyon, it's not significantly steeper than Pinyon Wash (I don't know which is steeper, but both have a similar course). Canyons and washes are, by definition, steeper and that's where water can really rush and push.

Even with the large amount of rain dropped by the hurricane, Harper Flat's 4% slope is unlikely to move the heavier bones of a human body. But in a wash or canyon, for sure they could be pushed. I figure that a geologist could figure out the rate of flow specifically for Harper Flat - but it would not be enough, IMO, to even wash all of the top layer of gravesl and sand off the Flat - just some of the sand and of course, silty sand. Then that hits the Canyon (or Wash) and then it's capable (from what we can see in pictures) of moving small boulders and surely can move human bones at that point.

That's why I don't think they died up on the flat. I can put one of the skulls (properly weighted and constructed plaster casts) on a 4% slope and I'd have to do way more than jet water down it to get the skull to move. But if I put it on a steeper slope and the water were being jetted (by constriction of the head of the canyon/wash), it would move.

You can find pictures of the flat that's on the other side of the highway (where it really flooded big time in Anza - because it was the very lowest flat of in the area and is likely an old lake bed, which it briefly became again).

I do not think JRF's skull was left behind on Harper Flat and wash together with its jaw and other bones into Harper Canyon (or any wash).

IMO.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

I posted this video previously but it might be worth reposting. This is a video of an unidentified area of Anza-Borrego taken on August 20 during Hurricane Hilary. The area shown in the video appears to be similar topographically to Harper Flat, and the water flow looks quite powerful.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

4% on a plateau will indeed cause water to flow in the lower direction - but it won't be rushing until it gets to the edge of its harder surface (that's why it's a plateau - there's some kind of harder rock under it or it too would be a gully or a canyon). While Harper Canyon is called a canyon, it's not significantly steeper than Pinyon Wash (I don't know which is steeper, but both have a similar course). Canyons and washes are, by definition, steeper and that's where water can really rush and push.

Even with the large amount of rain dropped by the hurricane, Harper Flat's 4% slope is unlikely to move the heavier bones of a human body. But in a wash or canyon, for sure they could be pushed. I figure that a geologist could figure out the rate of flow specifically for Harper Flat - but it would not be enough, IMO, to even wash all of the top layer of gravesl and sand off the Flat - just some of the sand and of course, silty sand. Then that hits the Canyon (or Wash) and then it's capable (from what we can see in pictures) of moving small boulders and surely can move human bones at that point.

That's why I don't think they died up on the flat. I can put one of the skulls (properly weighted and constructed plaster casts) on a 4% slope and I'd have to do way more than jet water down it to get the skull to move. But if I put it on a steeper slope and the water were being jetted (by constriction of the head of the canyon/wash), it would move.

You can find pictures of the flat that's on the other side of the highway (where it really flooded big time in Anza - because it was the very lowest flat of in the area and is likely an old lake bed, which it briefly became again).

I do not think JRF's skull was left behind on Harper Flat and wash together with its jaw and other bones into Harper Canyon (or any wash).

IMO.

Would the flow of water on the Flat actually be as gentle as you're supposing? Harper Flat is surrounded on all sides by peaks 200-300m higher. IMO there would be streams of water crashing down onto the Flat from all directions. That's likely how the Flat was formed in the first place, because it's the "receiving bowl" for the surrounding peaks and has been scoured out over millions of years.

With the topography as it is, I can picture Harper Flat potentially turning into Niagara Falls during heavy rain.

TBH, looking at the overall area, it kind of looks like Harper Flat is (or was at one time) actually a really large wash.

 

[10ofRods]

Would the flow of water on the Flat actually be as gentle as you're supposing? Harper Flat is surrounded on all sides by peaks 200-300m higher. IMO there would be streams of water crashing down onto the Flat from all directions. That's likely how the Flat was formed in the first place, because it's the "receiving bowl" for the surrounding peaks and has been scoured out over millions of years.

With the topography as it is, I can picture Harper Flat potentially turning into Niagara Falls during heavy rain.

What's up above the flat? If water is coming across Harper Flat from a draw, wash, gully or canyon *above* its higher side, it will fan out across the flat. Flat is pretty big. At the peak of the rain, I can envision as much as a foot of water on the flat - but the "drain" on the north side is clearly steep and provides a good drain.

What I am trying to point out is that IF the water for some reason was the biggest flood in all of Anza in that rain (as opposed to the lower parts of Anza - which is where people took pictures), and the bodies were still intact at that time, no, I do not think a creek-like flow of water is enough to push a human body very far or at all. There could be eddies, but I live near a creek with much greater flow and it's hard to float anything down it. It doesn't even move rocks. I've now seen many pictures of Harper Flat - it has *very* few larger rocks. It has some small ones, it has gravel, it has sand. The rocks it has weigh far less than a human body.

If the body was already skeletonized, then yes - it would have floated some of the smaller bones first - but under *no* circumstances can I imagine that this fanning, moving pool of water would then deposit a nearly entire set of bones down a wash. Bones that float first are small - they go in a fan-shaped direction. Skull would go last - the jaw would go off on its own. Since they were found together (and together with clothing and other bones), I believe the body had to have been intact (probably living) when the person went into the gully. Otherwise, all these elements would be scattered over large distances, first by slow moving water on the flat and then by various channels including all the various washes and draws - the bones would be somewhat randomly distributed but by weight - small bones further away (like the jaw) and big heavy bones (like the skull) closer to the flat.

Because all of the water exits from Harper Flat are choked in part by boulders, brush and sand, there would have been back-ups at the top of each water exit. I can't picture a wave coming along (I've never seen a wave on a dry flattish-space after rain; ripples and tiny wavelets, yes - if the water is there long enough). Harper Flat has a nice layer of sand on top - like a beach. When water comes up on shore (even in HUGE volumes) it sinks immediately into the sand. Having lived in a desert, I've watched vast amounts of flood water hit plateaus (or my front yard) and sink immediately into the sand. What I do not know is what the sand level was on Harper Flat prior to the hurricane and what it was afterward. I do have a series of photos of it (from hiker sites) over a period of about 3 years - looks like there's bedrock there, so yes, it's possible that the flat got several of inches of water - backed up - waiting to exit to the north. Enough to float a whole body? I doubt it. But if so, the body would then have had to fit through the top of Harper Canyon, the bodies would have had to be together. Fang's much lighter body would have gone further - so that does fit those facts.

But we have to then assume that those bodies were up there, in the open, from July 24-August 23 or thereabouts, then swept intact into the same gully, and remain intact (despite all that decomposition!) until the rains came.

Personally, I can't imagine that a body left on Harper Flat for a month would not be thoroughly scavenged by local fauna. Certainly the collagen holding the body together would be either completely gone or highly degraded - enough that the various bones were no longer held together. That's just basic decomp - but decomp in 115-120 weather is going to go fast - and scavengers are plentiful.

Even if the water on Harper Flat got deep enough and moved fast enough to move intact bodies, once those bodies got into the gully/wash/canyon (clothing filled with silt of course), they should show signs of sand polishing on them somewhere. Think about what a living person would experience if swept down a gully by any amount of water - it's steep, sandy, rocky. Forensic pathologists should be able to see evidence of such an event (broken bones for example, silt in the joint crevices, etc).

The fact that the skull and the jaw of JRF were found together - in a fairly natural relationship - means that tendons, cartilage and skin were likely still on it when it went into the gully, which I find very hard to explain by floodwater, which tumbles and scatters everything. And no, I don't believe that water flowing over that broad flat (even if the overall slow is 4%, it is *not* evenly 4% at all, it has non-conformities in it, easily seen on satellite.

There should be a trail of bones, some still on the flat (perhaps near the mouth of Harper Canyon - and maybe they have found some and we don't know it). The skull and lower jaw ought not to have been together - objects moved and tumbled by water precipitate out according to their weight - when the waters receded, the jaw should have been further, the bones near the gray pants should have been dispersed, etc.

IMO.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

What's up above the flat? If water is coming across Harper Flat from a draw, wash, gully or canyon *above* its higher side, it will fan out across the flat. Flat is pretty big. At the peak of the rain, I can envision as much as a foot of water on the flat - but the "drain" on the north side is clearly steep and provides a good drain.

What I am trying to point out is that IF the water for some reason was the biggest flood in all of Anza in that rain (as opposed to the lower parts of Anza - which is where people took pictures), and the bodies were still intact at that time, no, I do not think a creek-like flow of water is enough to push a human body very far or at all. There could be eddies, but I live near a creek with much greater flow and it's hard to float anything down it. It doesn't even move rocks. I've now seen many pictures of Harper Flat - it has *very* few larger rocks. It has some small ones, it has gravel, it has sand. The rocks it has weigh far less than a human body.

If the body was already skeletonized, then yes - it would have floated some of the smaller bones first - but under *no* circumstances can I imagine that this fanning, moving pool of water would then deposit a nearly entire set of bones down a wash. Bones that float first are small - they go in a fan-shaped direction. Skull would go last - the jaw would go off on its own. Since they were found together (and together with clothing and other bones), I believe the body had to have been intact (probably living) when the person went into the gully. Otherwise, all these elements would be scattered over large distances, first by slow moving water on the flat and then by various channels including all the various washes and draws - the bones would be somewhat randomly distributed but by weight - small bones further away (like the jaw) and big heavy bones (like the skull) closer to the flat.

Because all of the water exits from Harper Flat are choked in part by boulders, brush and sand, there would have been back-ups at the top of each water exit. I can't picture a wave coming along (I've never seen a wave on a dry flattish-space after rain; ripples and tiny wavelets, yes - if the water is there long enough). Harper Flat has a nice layer of sand on top - like a beach. When water comes up on shore (even in HUGE volumes) it sinks immediately into the sand. Having lived in a desert, I've watched vast amounts of flood water hit plateaus (or my front yard) and sink immediately into the sand. What I do not know is what the sand level was on Harper Flat prior to the hurricane and what it was afterward. I do have a series of photos of it (from hiker sites) over a period of about 3 years - looks like there's bedrock there, so yes, it's possible that the flat got several of inches of water - backed up - waiting to exit to the north. Enough to float a whole body? I doubt it. But if so, the body would then have had to fit through the top of Harper Canyon, the bodies would have had to be together. Fang's much lighter body would have gone further - so that does fit those facts.

But we have to then assume that those bodies were up there, in the open, from July 24-August 23 or thereabouts, then swept intact into the same gully, and remain intact (despite all that decomposition!) until the rains came.

Personally, I can't imagine that a body left on Harper Flat for a month would not be thoroughly scavenged by local fauna. Certainly the collagen holding the body together would be either completely gone or highly degraded - enough that the various bones were no longer held together. That's just basic decomp - but decomp in 115-120 weather is going to go fast - and scavengers are plentiful.

Even if the water on Harper Flat got deep enough and moved fast enough to move intact bodies, once those bodies got into the gully/wash/canyon (clothing filled with silt of course), they should show signs of sand polishing on them somewhere. Think about what a living person would experience if swept down a gully by any amount of water - it's steep, sandy, rocky. Forensic pathologists should be able to see evidence of such an event (broken bones for example, silt in the joint crevices, etc).

The fact that the skull and the jaw of JRF were found together - in a fairly natural relationship - means that tendons, cartilage and skin were likely still on it when it went into the gully, which I find very hard to explain by floodwater, which tumbles and scatters everything. And no, I don't believe that water flowing over that broad flat (even if the overall slow is 4%, it is *not* evenly 4% at all, it has non-conformities in it, easily seen on satellite.

There should be a trail of bones, some still on the flat (perhaps near the mouth of Harper Canyon - and maybe they have found some and we don't know it). The skull and lower jaw ought not to have been together - objects moved and tumbled by water precipitate out according to their weight - when the waters receded, the jaw should have been further, the bones near the gray pants should have been dispersed, etc.

IMO.

What's above Harper Flat? Harper Flat's highest point is about 850m. Its lowest point is about 700m. By comparison, north of Harper Flat is Sunset Mountain at 1100m. South-west is Whale Peak at 1600m. To the west is Pinyon Mountain at 1300m. And the peaks to the east and south-east go up to about 1000m. Harper Flat is far from the highest point; as I called it before, it's a "bowl" receiving the drainage from all the peaks surrounding it.

I can accept that bodies on the flat may not have been able to float intact past the boulders heading into the washes and canyons. But you note that there are very few large boulders on Harper Flat. IMO there's a good chance that the large boulders blocking the washes and canyons WERE once on the flat, which would suggest the water flow on the flat was strong enough to move them.

 

[10ofRods]

I posted this video previously but it might be worth reposting. This is a video of an unidentified area of Anza-Borrego taken on August 20 during Hurricane Hilary. The area shown in the video appears to be similar topographically to Harper Flat, and the water flow looks quite powerful.

I believe that's not far from Anza-Borrego Campground (near Palm Canyon). One of the lower parts of the park. This flood caused some camping spots to be closed off, but most were still open.

You're comparing an area that's at near sea level with one that's 2600 feet above sea level (links below). Naturally, the low places end up with more water, which is why Highway 78 had flood cautions on it for 2-3 days and the main areas at lower levels in Anza Borrego were closed or reduced in use.

When water flows down from 2600 feet for a few miles, while it's still raining, yes, it's going to accumulate at lower areas. Which is what local news said was flooded at the time - and it's clearly a dry river bed in the picture.

You can't have a 4% grade over 1.5 miles and get a gully-washer like the one pictured.in

Harper Flat has a low ridge (probably less than 100 feet higher than itself) to its south. Beyond that ridge is the web of roads where @Herat has convincingly argued is where the truck must have been (we don't know exactly well). To the SOUTH of Harper Flat, the land drops off and the water flows south, not to the north. So the only water on Harper Flat was actual rain fall plus whatever could accumulate on that ridge.

The area where that flooding occurred, IMO, is about 200 feet above sea level, so from the ridge (2800 feet above sea level? That's my estimate - @Herat could give a better estimate, I'm sure), there were 10 miles for water to accumulate and water steeply coursing at degrees far exceeding 4%. IMO, that video was taken in the flow channel below a much higher ridge than anything I can find pictured or see on satellite maps for Harper Flat. You can see that the ridge above the small creek (which is about to fan out in the dry river bed) is much higher than anything near Harper Flat. So more water accumulated.

But, the person taking the video appears to be at least 200 feet above the flow. So the area is bounded in by two vertical features - whereas Harper Flat is not.

The reason Native Americans lived on Harper Flat is that it was a good and solid place to live in winter. Also, Harper Flat has solid bedrock in which various stone-based industries could take place. It typically only rains in winter in the area - this hurricane was the first in history, that I know of, to hit the area.

But again, even if the very heavens opened up right above Harper Flat and poured 12 inches of rain at once, we'd still have to explain how two bodies ended up relatively intact after a flood. How such a flood (on a flat) could possible keep the scavenged bones together as the bodies floated and tumbled down Harper Canyon. How the bodies would both end up in the same place, given how shallow the slope on the flat is, is a complete mystery. The skulls would have washed away last - and I just tried floating my cast (I have a skull at home right now - a complete replica, including weight and density, of a human skill). It sinks in two feet of still water. If I shoot at it with my shower hose, I can move it - but that's quite a bit of water pressure. In my opinion, if we dropped a skull into the body of water from your video, it would move all round in the current, and end up being pushed to the side of the flow and ultimately, the skull would stick on brush or rock - while the lower jaw would go bobbing along (I just tossed in some foot bones that I brought home to show the grandkids - and they sink far more slowly and one is actually floating in my bathtub - so those would go much further; the jaw bone would behave similarly to the heel bone of a foot - would go further than the skull, obviously).

So the bodies (if on Harper Flat originally and pushed even by water shown in the video) would have had to be intact on the day the hurricane came through. Odd that no one saw them. We know that rangers in Anza Borrego had been notified, but of course, it's possible that no one went up to Harper Flat at all between July 24 and August 20.

The positioning of the bones in the two pictures we have makes me think the body fell and if it was moved by water, it was (as we see) pushed up against rocks and brush, but was not moved very far - perhaps the water in the Canyon moved the lower half of JRF's body a little distance - but it sure looks like the same habitat to me. Had water pushed bodies from a couple of miles above, I think the bones would be distributed very differently.

IMO. Anyway, not sure why it matters at this point, except to those of us with very inquiring minds!

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

I believe that's not far from Anza-Borrego Campground (near Palm Canyon). One of the lower parts of the park. This flood caused some camping spots to be closed off, but most were still open.

You're comparing an area that's at near sea level with one that's 2600 feet above sea level (links below). Naturally, the low places end up with more water, which is why Highway 78 had flood cautions on it for 2-3 days and the main areas at lower levels in Anza Borrego were closed or reduced in use.

When water flows down from 2600 feet for a few miles, while it's still raining, yes, it's going to accumulate at lower areas. Which is what local news said was flooded at the time - and it's clearly a dry river bed in the picture.

You can't have a 4% grade over 1.5 miles and get a gully-washer like the one pictured.in

Harper Flat has a low ridge (probably less than 100 feet higher than itself) to its south. Beyond that ridge is the web of roads where @Herat has convincingly argued is where the truck must have been (we don't know exactly well). To the SOUTH of Harper Flat, the land drops off and the water flows south, not to the north. So the only water on Harper Flat was actual rain fall plus whatever could accumulate on that ridge.

The area where that flooding occurred, IMO, is about 200 feet above sea level, so from the ridge (2800 feet above sea level? That's my estimate - @Herat could give a better estimate, I'm sure), there were 10 miles for water to accumulate and water steeply coursing at degrees far exceeding 4%. IMO, that video was taken in the flow channel below a much higher ridge than anything I can find pictured or see on satellite maps for Harper Flat. You can see that the ridge above the small creek (which is about to fan out in the dry river bed) is much higher than anything near Harper Flat. So more water accumulated.

But, the person taking the video appears to be at least 200 feet above the flow. So the area is bounded in by two vertical features - whereas Harper Flat is not.

The reason Native Americans lived on Harper Flat is that it was a good and solid place to live in winter. Also, Harper Flat has solid bedrock in which various stone-based industries could take place. It typically only rains in winter in the area - this hurricane was the first in history, that I know of, to hit the area.

But again, even if the very heavens opened up right above Harper Flat and poured 12 inches of rain at once, we'd still have to explain how two bodies ended up relatively intact after a flood. How such a flood (on a flat) could possible keep the scavenged bones together as the bodies floated and tumbled down Harper Canyon. How the bodies would both end up in the same place, given how shallow the slope on the flat is, is a complete mystery. The skulls would have washed away last - and I just tried floating my cast (I have a skull at home right now - a complete replica, including weight and density, of a human skill). It sinks in two feet of still water. If I shoot at it with my shower hose, I can move it - but that's quite a bit of water pressure. In my opinion, if we dropped a skull into the body of water from your video, it would move all round in the current, and end up being pushed to the side of the flow and ultimately, the skull would stick on brush or rock - while the lower jaw would go bobbing along (I just tossed in some foot bones that I brought home to show the grandkids - and they sink far more slowly and one is actually floating in my bathtub - so those would go much further; the jaw bone would behave similarly to the heel bone of a foot - would go further than the skull, obviously).

So the bodies (if on Harper Flat originally and pushed even by water shown in the video) would have had to be intact on the day the hurricane came through. Odd that no one saw them. We know that rangers in Anza Borrego had been notified, but of course, it's possible that no one went up to Harper Flat at all between July 24 and August 20.

The positioning of the bones in the two pictures we have makes me think the body fell and if it was moved by water, it was (as we see) pushed up against rocks and brush, but was not moved very far - perhaps the water in the Canyon moved the lower half of JRF's body a little distance - but it sure looks like the same habitat to me. Had water pushed bodies from a couple of miles above, I think the bones would be distributed very differently.

IMO. Anyway, not sure why it matters at this point, except to those of us with very inquiring minds!

Everything I've posted so far regarding the elevations is based on topographical maps showing the measurements and contour lines. Even if you're correct that the video was recorded in Palm Canyon, that's nowhere near sea level; it's at about 300m (1000ft). It's almost exactly the same elevation as the Harper Canyon trailhead.

Harper Flat's average elevation is about 750m (2,400 ft) and it's surrounded on all sides by much higher ridges and peaks. There isn't just a slightly higher ridge to the south, it's completely enclosed. This is all shown in the topo maps. If you haven't already, please look to see what I mean:

https://www.topozone.com/california/san-diego-ca/flat/harper-flat/

The peaks around Harper Flat go as high as 1600m (5,250 ft). Any rain falling on those peaks has to come down by one route or another, and Harper Flat falls right in the middle. IMO it's inevitable that some (or a lot of) water would be flowing onto Harper Flat from every direction.

I can absolutely agree that it's probably not likely a body would remain intact if carried so far by the water. What I can't agree with is that there wouldn't be enough water flow. The surrounding ridges and peaks would result in far more water flowing down onto the flat than just the direct rainfall.

Harper Flat isn't a high point, it's a large, flat, (usually) dry valley nestling between the mountains.

 

[I'm Nobody]

RE: Tropical storm Hilary.
Thank you @Interested_But_Confused & @10ofRods for your wonderful explanations. I am map challenged but have been in a couple tropical storms & one hurricane. Wind was always a big issue during the storms I experienced. IDK if FJ's & JRF's remains were in a wind-sheltered location, how open/large the flat, ridge, wash, peak was or where they passed before the storm. IMO Wind gusts & rain together may have carried the remains to the areas found. Fang would have been carried farther away from the truck due to her smaller skeleton.

"The bone mass in the skeleton makes up about 14% of the total body weight." Human skeleton Wikipedia
IF a human skeleton weighs estimate approximately 12%-15% of body weight; Rods would know exactly but 14% is rough, average, close enough to figure if it's possible wind gusts could have helped move the skeletons.

JRF's remains would have been approx. (180 lbs X 14%) 25 lbs.
FJ's remains would have been approx. (110 lbs X 14%) 16 lbs. (Females are usually less than 14%.)
Both skeletons would have been under the 37 lb weight that can be moved by a minimum wind of 28 mph.

photo from abc7chicago wind lesson math


While we don't know the exact location of the truck and remains, the National Weather Service reported Hilary tropical storm peak wind speeds gathered in areas close at over 40 mph.
Peak wind speed reported:
Borrego Valley Airport 49 mph
Borrego 43 mph
Julian 48 mph
Hilary brings powerful winds to county

More a question about wind gusts and speculation from unscientific me.
JMO

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

Just in case the topographical maps aren't easy to understand, this is Google Earth's image of Harper Flat:

Google Earth

earth.google.com

Pinyon Wash is top right, Harper Canyon is bottom right, and you can see how many of the surrounding peaks and ridges flow down towards the flat. If you zoom in you can also see the ground is covered with marks from water flowing across the flat.

 

[10ofRods]

If tires weren't uninflated, might they have imploded in the heat?

Yes - and probably in response to the rocky roads up there. I found some pictures of Harper Flat (I believe they did not drive on it - but it is representative of some the rock up there). It appears to be exfoliating granite (with very little sand or dirt on big sections). A dirt road at approximately the same altitude, south of Harper Flat, would have some granite in it, IMO. It's always a worry even without the heat that such granite might damage a tire (I don't think JRF's tires look like specialized offroading tires, btw).

Heat plus granite is terrible for tires. Didn't we learn there were three flat tires? To me that says the truck took a big bounce (or went over really treacherous rocks - which should have been visible, unless speeding). By speeding, I mean too fast for those conditions. Deflating allows the tires to be softer and avoid puncture. In heat, one deflates just because of the heat. I was taught that if the terrain is rocky, one does not deflate as much - but again, trying to account for both heat AND rocky terrain...is difficult.

Close up picture of Harper Flat rock (which underlies the whole area at an elevation of about 2000 feet and is probably also higher up):


^Pinyon Wash/Harper Flat

This shows the grinding area of the Natives who used to live in the area and wintered there (likely grinding acorns carried up over several trips from fairly far away). But it does show the granite surface of the flat and its generally uneven character.

There are rounded granite boulders of various sizes in both Pinyon Wash and Harper Canyon, of course. But sharper ones are often embedded in roads, which is why people deflate. Most off roaders carry a simple device that can be used to reinflate, as well. I am assuming they were up there during daylight hours and would have needed to deflate for two reasons. IME, one can drive very slowly in such terrain, even with a flat tire (have done it, have seen people do it - not recommended, but possible). But 3 flat tires would really impact steering, IMO.