Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #15

[mickey2942]

I don't think hospitals in US have nearly so much capacity.

Let's hope that the Daily Mail is completely full of baloney. Maybe that is some sort of apocalyptic worst case scenario document. I hope.

 

[Deleted member 158085]

Just thought I’d leave this here...

The stats for SARS-CoV-2 in Italy.

- 4 636 infected.
- 197 dead.
- 462 in intensive care.
- 4.2% mortality rate.
- 10% in intensive care.

That mortality and intensive care rate is much worse than "just the flu".

Fear is bad. Being nonchalant is also bad.
PeterSweden on Twitter

I’m confused. I thought the universal name for this was COVID-19.

 

[KALI]

It would be awful.
No doubt.
Very awful.
Thankfully, I do not see there being a food shortage due to this.
Maybe a few items due to precautions being taken on food transport from certain countries.
But, starvation for 1st world countries? No.
The poor nation's people are who I worry about.

There has been another toilet paper fight in Sydney, what worries me if people are fighting over tp what would happen if there was genuine (or perceived) food shortages...

 

[SAMS]

I’m confused. I thought the universal name for this was COVID-19.

It is. Maybe he knows something we don’t?

 

[Henry2326]

NEW: Utah reports first case of coronavirus as former cruise ship passenger tests positive Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

 

[SAMS]

BNO Newsroom on Twitter

NEW: Utah reports first case of coronavirus as former cruise ship passenger tests positive

 

[Henry2326]

Let's hope that the Daily Mail is completely full of baloney. Maybe that is some sort of apocalyptic worst case scenario document. I hope.

This is my simple math and I don't think it's a worse case.
The high risk group is baby boomers, over 60. There are 73 million in the US.
11 million - 15% of them get the virus (little lower than other countries)
1 million - 10% require hospitalization....so our hospitals are over-run. We don't even have this many beds open.
550,000 deaths- 5% of infected die....much, much lower % than other countries.
It just gets worse with higher percentages.
Speed is survival....the faster we test, the faster we can save lives.....

 

[Inthedetails]

Photos of empty public spaces:
Public spaces empty as COVID-19 coronavirus infections spread

 

[Henry2326]

American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for #codiv19 over next 2 months:
96,000,000 infections
4,800,000 hospitalizations
1,900,000 ICU admissions
480,000 deaths

Presentation: US hospitals preparing for millions of hospitalizations - Business Insider

vs flu in 2019:
35,500,000 infections
490,600 hospitalizations
49,000 ICU admissions
34,200 deaths Seth Bannon ‍ on Twitter

 

[beatrixpotter]

Community Message - 3.4.20 - EvergreenHealth

"
In partnership with the CDC, we have updated our screening guidelines for COVID-19.

As of March 3, 2020, we have halted performing nasopharyngeal testing in our outpatient clinics, including all five urgent care locations.

Here’s why:

• The CDC has determined that COVID-19 is now endemic, meaning that the virus is now considered to be regularly found in our region amongst our population. Previously, only individuals who had previously known risk factors (including history of travel, exposure to a confirmed case), were considered high risk for acquiring the disease.
• There is increased risk of transmission when performing any nasopharyngeal testing.

Screening

• Patients will continue to be seen in our clinics. The risk of transmission is low when the patient and clinician are masked, similar to influenza. Patients will be treated based on clinical presentation, just without nasopharyngeal testing.
• Patients who are asymptomatic (not experiencing symptoms consistent with COVID-19) will be seen as usual."

Wow

 

[Amonet]

Quoting OddSocks post from thread #14

I’m no statistician and definitely not good at maths, but looking at
Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS only 50% of confirmed cases have recovered so far?

I believe a mathematical thing that has to do with the growth rate being on an exponential curve right now. I'm not good at maths so someone might correct me or be able to explain it better?

It's like, 100 people have the virus on day 1, and assuming 100% recovery rate, they will go to the 'recovered' column on day 15.

In the meantime, during those 15 days, more people have got infected. So if another 100 people contracted the virus between day 1 and day 15, you've got 200 confirmed cases, with 100 recovered.

We'll see that pattern change as growth plateaus and then eventually comes down the other side of the peak of the curve.

But before that happens, I would expect that difference between recovered and confirmed to go up, so you might see 100 recovered to 300 confirmed (as a ratio, not as specific numbers).

You could check it out on the figures for South Korea and Italy for the past few weeks and look at the recovered vs current confirmed cases. That should be even worse for that ratio as they're on a steep upward curve, whereas the global figures currently mostly consist of the Chinese cases which have already peaked. But, the predictions seem to suggest that is going to be their first peak, and they'll have another peak later in the year. They've already started importing cases from the rest of the world, and I don't think they'll be able to contain them, they should start seeding new outbreaks as they have in places like Italy and France.

 

[Betty P]

My son is in the music industry. Lives in NY. Flying off to LA tomorrow. Then to Jamaica and back to Miami. Then he plans to fly in to see his old Ma. Me. Gulp. All of this in the next 7 days.

Just talked to mine and he said his boss said he should just plan to stay in NY for the duration of the pandemic. Are these people nuts? I said, fine. I don't want to talk about it anymore. I'm just putting it out of my mind. You can only make yourself miserable so long and then you have to let people make their own mistakes.

 

[beatrixpotter]

American Hospital Association "Best Guess Epidemiology" for #codiv19 over next 2 months:
96,000,000 infections
4,800,000 hospitalizations
1,900,000 ICU admissions
480,000 deaths

Presentation: US hospitals preparing for millions of hospitalizations - Business Insider

vs flu in 2019:
35,500,000 infections
490,600 hospitalizations
49,000 ICU admissions
34,200 deaths Seth Bannon ‍ on Twitter

Is this for flipping real? They all gave up before they even started and just plan no containment at all? Is that what I've getting from all I'm reading tonight? No tests. Hope you don't die?

 

[dotr]

http://www.china.org.cn/photos/2020-03/05/content_75776305_3.htm
Cherry blossoms are seen at Wuhan University in Wuhan, capital of central China's Hubei Province, March 3, 2020. [China News Service/Zhang Chang]

 

[Auntie Cipation]

I’m confused. I thought the universal name for this was COVID-19.

COVID-19 is the disease, SARS-CoV-2 is the virus that causes the disease.

Naming the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the virus that causes it

 

[gitana1]

If you can purchase the sanitizer, that is. Furthermore, just advising people to wash their hands often ignores the fact that coronva virus is transmitted through respiratory droplets. So all the hand sanitzer in the world might not help you.

Yes. We need mass education and policies on covering our mouths and noses and staying home when sick.

 

[Amonet]

Quoting OddSocks again from the last thread

Why is anti bacterial stuff sold out? It’s a virus.

Good question. I think the answer is that 'anti-bacterial' should really be 'anti-microbial', but that doesn't have such a good ring to it, so they called them 'anti-bacterial' instead.

It's not like anti-biotics that only work on bacterial infections, the anti-bacterial hand gels and soaps are really anti-microbial, so they can work on both bacteria and viruses.

 

[mickey2942]

This is my simple math and I don't think it's a worse case.
The high risk group is baby boomers, over 60. There are 73 million in the US.
11 million - 15% of them get the virus (little lower than other countries)
1 million - 10% require hospitalization....so our hospitals are over-run. We don't even have this many beds open.
550,000 deaths- 5% of infected die....much, much lower % than other countries.
It just gets worse with higher percentages.
Speed is survival....the faster we test, the faster we can save lives.....

That math is interesting. The primary patients at the VA Healthcare system are geriatric veterans, Vietnam, Korea, WW II veterans.

They don't have the capacity to take care of the veterans if that math is correct.

 

[Inthedetails]

Cost is a worry for some people. Here's info from the mayor of NYC:

Mayor Bill de Blasio
@NYCMayor
This is a city that guarantees health care for everyone who needs it, regardless of ability to pay or immigration status. If you do not have insurance or don't know where to go, call 311. We will help you find a facility. If you're unable to pay, you will still get treated.

Mayor Bill de Blasio on Twitter

 

[jjenny]

Community Message - 3.4.20 - EvergreenHealth

"
In partnership with the CDC, we have updated our screening guidelines for COVID-19.

As of March 3, 2020, we have halted performing nasopharyngeal testing in our outpatient clinics, including all five urgent care locations.

...
Wow

What in the world? I thought the idea was to do more testing, not stop it? They are just going to treat based on symptoms? Well initial symptoms are that of a common cold. I think people would like to know if they have common cold or covid?