Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #8

[otto]

I'm sure there's a quote that says "if" 20% of the population needs to be treated we'll have problems. My point is that will never ever happen. jmo

Of course there will be no epidemics. That's the twilight zone. However, in less than a month, the number of cases in China went from 8,000 to 83,000. South Korea had 4 cases on Jan 30. Today it has 2400.

If the virus is contained, the number of infected can remain low. If it is not contained, more countries will see numbers increase as they have in China and South Korea.

Jan 30



Feb 5



Feb 28

 

[firebird]

From our friends at NBC

Richard Engel on Twitter

Two virologists I’ve spoken to say coronavirus is not an end of days virus. They say take precautions/work for a vaccine, but emphasized this isn’t “the big one.”

 

[Pi Thoughts]

Hey otto...I’m in Sydney. Everything is pretty normal around here. Sometimes I think I’m the only person watching the situation and preparing for social isolation should it be needed. But saying that there’s been no hand sanitiser available for a month at the chemists where I live.
Family and friends aren’t worried, where as I’m fully prepared to go into lock down mode with my daughter and pets to slow the spread of the disease.

I'm in Queensland about 1 hour south of Brisbane on acreage. I travelled by train into Brisbane city yesterday for a conference and did not see any sign of masks nor did I hear anyone coughing anywhere. It is just business as usual at the moment.
People are aware but not obsessed by it at the moment and all supermarket shelves are fully stocked where we are. As we live on acreage and have our own water supply and grow some fruits and veges we could bunker down for an extended period if necessary.
It's the last day of summer in Australia so the weather is beautiful and warm in QLD.. approx. 27 degree C or 81 degrees F.

 

[firebird]

Of course there will be no epidemics. That's the twilight zone. However, in less than a month, the number of cases in China went from 8,000 to 83,000. South Korea had 4 cases on Jan 30. Today it has 2400.

If the virus is contained, the number of infected can remain low. If it is not contained, more countries will see numbers increase as they have in China and South Korea.

Jan 30

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Feb 5

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Feb 28

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That won't happen in the US. Lots of reasons. But I'll shake on it now and meet you back here in 30 days to confirm

 

[firebird]

If 20% of patients need medical care, and each needs 17 days to recover, medical facilities will be overrun in areas where there is an epidemic.

“I think right now things are so chaotic in China it may be hard to collect data on the whole spectrum of illness,” said Michael Osterholm, director of the Center for Infectious Diseases Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota.

Officially, an estimated 20% of cases in China are severely ill, according to the World Health Organization. But that calculation is derived based on known cases, and would not reflect mild, undetected ones."​

Limited data on coronavirus may be skewing assumptions about severity

"Chinese health officials report that most cases of the new coronavirus are mild but about 20% of patients either have severe cases of disease or become critically ill."

Here's how symptoms progress among typical patients:

• Day 1: Patients run a fever. They may also experience fatigue, muscle pain, and a dry cough. A small minority may have had diarrhea or nausea one to two days before.
• Day 5: Patients may have difficulty breathing — especially if they are older or have a preexisting health condition.
• Day 7: This is how long it takes, on average, before patients are admitted to a hospital, according to the Wuhan University study.
• Day 8: At this point, patients with severe cases (15%, according to the Chinese CDC) develop acute respiratory distress syndrome, an illness that occurs when fluid builds up the lungs. ARDS is often fatal.
• Day 10: If patients have worsening symptoms, this is the time in the disease's progression when they're most likely to be admitted to the ICU. These patients probably have more abdominal pain and appetite loss than patients with milder cases. Only a small fraction die: The current fatality rate hovers at about 2%.
• Day 17: On average, people who recover from the virus are discharged from the hospital after 2 1/2 weeks. "

A day-by-day breakdown of coronavirus symptoms shows how the disease, COVID-19, goes from bad to worse

The OP said 20% of "the population," which is waywayway different then 20% of the dx'd population. Maybe the OP meant the dx'd population. But in the US, that would only be a handful of people per state, and I'd bet lots of money it'll stay that way.

 

[otto]

From our friends at NBC

Richard Engel on Twitter

Two virologists I’ve spoken to say coronavirus is not an end of days virus. They say take precautions/work for a vaccine, but emphasized this isn’t “the big one.”

Funny you should say that, today I used the term "the big one." Opinions are mixed, with everything from "good to thin out the population" to "nah, life as usual."

 

[otto]

I'm in Queensland about 1 hour south of Brisbane on acreage. I travelled by train into Brisbane city yesterday for a conference and did not see any sign of masks nor did I hear anyone coughing anywhere. It is just business as usual at the moment.
People are aware but not obsessed by it at the moment and all supermarket shelves are fully stocked where we are. As we live on acreage and have our own water supply and grow some fruits and veges we could bunker down for an extended period if necessary.
It's the last day of summer in Australia so the weather is beautiful and warm in QLD.. approx. 27 degree C or 81 degrees F.

Sounds perfect! We have a farm with its own water supply and septic field - pump 220ft under - but if the power cuts, the water stops.

I think most places are business as usual. I think that's how it was in Italy until one day they woke up to find themselves in quarantine. Italy is obviously taking strict actions due to open EU borders. It was too little too late, as many contracted the virus before traveling to other parts of Europe. The same thing happened in Iran, although it was other countries that closed borders with Iran, and again, too late.

I'm pretty sure that my son will be fine although he seem to have some allergies. Perhaps that's an unfamiliar summer bloom?

 

[BayouBelle_LA]

2 new coronavirus cases identified in Washington state

Washington state health officials announced two new coronavirus cases Friday night, a woman who had recently traveled to South Korea and a high school student with no known exposure to the disease whose school will be closed and sanitized.

Neither people were seriously ill, authorities said.

 

[otto]

2 new coronavirus cases identified in Washington state

Washington state health officials announced two new coronavirus cases Friday night, a woman who had recently traveled to South Korea and a high school student with no known exposure to the disease whose school will be closed and sanitized.

Neither people were seriously ill, authorities said.

I wonder what that means. Perhaps 14 days is not long enough for quarantine, perhaps minor infection people have been sharing the virus for a couple of weeks, perhaps testing was lax?

One thing we don't know is how many infected people in China had minor symptoms, therefore not counted. We also don't know how many were not part of the treatment process and died outside of hospital. Crematoriums were overwhelmed for a few weeks. Were those numbers included?

 

[Pi Thoughts]

Authorities are trying to track down up to 40 people who went to a Gold Coast salon and were treated by a beautician who has been diagnosed with coronavirus. The 63-year-old woman had recently returned from Iran and started feeling ill on Thursday while working at the Hair Plus salon, in the Australia Fair shopping centre at Southport.

Queensland Health revealed on Friday evening that the woman had become the ninth Queenslander to fall ill with the virus, and the 23rd case across Australia.

The state's chief health officer, Jeannette Young, said the woman did facial treatments on up to 40 clients, in sessions lasting less than 15 minutes. "She saw a number of clients each for brief interactions, so we believe the risk is incredibly low," Dr Young said
Coronavirus scare at Gold Coast beauty salon after beautician tests positive following trip to Iran

 

[Lilibet]

I live in a rural area in Southern Oregon with a population of about 215,000 spread out over two counties. We have four hospitals with a total of 680 beds plus some skilled care facilities that are usually pretty full. If 0.25% of the population (about 537) needs hospitalization for COVID-19 it would work (along with people hospitalized for other reasons). But I’m not sure how many of those beds could be put in isolation since most rooms have at least two beds. I expect overflow patients would have to be moved to areas further north or even south to northern CA with fewer cases. But for many, their insurance would then be out of network.

I certainly don’t expect that many to need hospitalization and isolation here, but it was interesting doing the math. I’m sure local hospitals are discussing this even now...especially now, with one case so far in Oregon as of today.

 

[otto]

Authorities are trying to track down up to 40 people who went to a Gold Coast salon and were treated by a beautician who has been diagnosed with coronavirus. The 63-year-old woman had recently returned from Iran and started feeling ill on Thursday while working at the Hair Plus salon, in the Australia Fair shopping centre at Southport.

Queensland Health revealed on Friday evening that the woman had become the ninth Queenslander to fall ill with the virus, and the 23rd case across Australia.

The state's chief health officer, Jeannette Young, said the woman did facial treatments on up to 40 clients, in sessions lasting less than 15 minutes. "She saw a number of clients each for brief interactions, so we believe the risk is incredibly low," Dr Young said
Coronavirus scare at Gold Coast beauty salon after beautician tests positive following trip to Iran

Iran is a real problem. They hid the fact that there were cases until there were 2 deaths, which means there were maybe 4000 infected people at that time. A few days later, there are maybe 18,000 infected. Iran's health minister got on TV with a high fever to claim that there is no virus problem. A day later he admitted he is ill with the virus.

Hiding the outbreak in Iran and failing to contain the problem is an outbreak equal to South Korea and Italy. Hopefully Australia can contain it.

 

[whitelilac]

2 new coronavirus cases identified in Washington state

Washington state health officials announced two new coronavirus cases Friday night, a woman who had recently traveled to South Korea and a high school student with no known exposure to the disease whose school will be closed and sanitized.

Neither people were seriously ill, authorities said.

"... a woman in in King County in her 50s who traveled to South Korea earlier this month....

She had gone to work for one day after returning from South Korea and then stayed home after experiencing a headache, nausea and a sore throat. She never needed medical care and like the vast majority of people is recovering, said health officer Dr. Jeff Duchin with Public Health – Seattle & King County."

That's encouraging. Something that I've wondered about this particular virus..... Is it known how this virus affects individuals, as in can it range from being a mild touch to full blown aggressive, without considering the individuals' ages, health, immune systems etc?

 

[otto]

"... a woman in in King County in her 50s who traveled to South Korea earlier this month....

She had gone to work for one day after returning from South Korea and then stayed home after experiencing a headache, nausea and a sore throat. She never needed medical care and like the vast majority of people is recovering, said health officer Dr. Jeff Duchin with Public Health – Seattle & King County."

That's encouraging. Something that I've wondered about this particular virus..... Is it known how this virus affects individuals, as in can it range from being a mild touch to full blown aggressive, without considering the individuals' ages, health, immune systems etc?

She's in the 80% who do not require medical care to recover. Hopefully everyone she encountered is also in the 80%, and everyone they encounter as well.

 

[OhioBlues]

I live in a rural area in Southern Oregon with a population of about 215,000 spread out over two counties. We have four hospitals with a total of 680 beds plus some skilled care facilities that are usually pretty full. If 0.25% of the population (about 537) needs hospitalization for COVID-19 it would work (along with people hospitalized for other reasons). But I’m not sure how many of those beds could be put in isolation since most rooms have at least two beds. I expect overflow patients would have to be moved to areas further north or even south to northern CA with fewer cases. But for many, their insurance would then be out of network.

I certainly don’t expect that many to need hospitalization and isolation here, but it was interesting doing the math. I’m sure local hospitals are discussing this even now...especially now, with one case so far in Oregon as of today.

Wouldn't they take rural patients to the best equipped 'Main' hospitals for treatment with this virus?

I do know (in my area) that the Main hospital owns buildings (besides the main hospital) for just this reason. The other locations would handle the additional quarantined patients etc.

 

[Pi Thoughts]

Australia has announced a ban on travellers from Iran after the latest coronavirus figures given to authorities indicated a “very significant rise” of cases and the highest death rate outside of mainland China.

Federal health minister Greg Hunt on Saturday afternoon said the National Security Council had met and decided to lift the travel advisory for Iran to level four – “do not travel”.

This was as a consequence of the spread of coronavirus, the high death rate in Iran and the arrival in Australia of a case undetected upon a 63-year-old woman’s departure from Iran, Mr Hunt said.

He said from Sunday, March 1, any Australian citizens, permanent residents and their immediate family who have travelled to Iran will be required to strictly self-isolate, “consistent” with the decision made in relation to people who visited China.
Hospital staff claim coronavirus death toll in Iran has quadrupled

 

[BayouBelle_LA]

"... a woman in in King County in her 50s who traveled to South Korea earlier this month....

She had gone to work for one day after returning from South Korea and then stayed home after experiencing a headache, nausea and a sore throat. She never needed medical care and like the vast majority of people is recovering, said health officer Dr. Jeff Duchin with Public Health – Seattle & King County."

That's encouraging. Something that I've wondered about this particular virus..... Is it known how this virus affects individuals, as in can it range from being a mild touch to full blown aggressive, without considering the individuals' ages, health, immune systems etc?

It is encouraging that some have mild symptoms. I think the symptoms are worse in older people and those with other underlying health conditions and compromised immune systems.

Coronavirus is more fatal in men than women, major study suggests

Who is most at risk of coronavirus?
Elderly people and those with preexisting health conditions were most at risk of contracting a fatal case of COVID-19, researchers also noted.

Case fatality rate increased with age, with 14.8% of cases in people over age 80 resulting in death. Patients ages 70 to 79 had an 8% fatality rate, while those 60 to 69 had a fatality rate of 3.6%.

Researchers calculated an overall fatality rate of 2.3%, with a total of 1,023 deaths recorded among the confirmed cases of the virus in the study.

Cardiovascular disease was the preexisting condition most associated with increased fatalities, with the study reporting a fatality rate of 10.5% in patients who suffered with the condition. Diabetes sufferers had a fatality rate of 7.3%, while the frequency of fatalities was also higher than the overall rate in people with chronic respiratory disease, hypertension and cancer.

In patients with no reported underlying conditions, the fatality rate dropped to 0.9%, according to the study.
<snip>

However, the study’s fatality rate — which was reached by dividing the total number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases — does vary from other calculations. Some experts believe the total number of coronavirus cases could be much higher than the records show, which would make the mortality rate lower than currently estimated.

Speaking to CNBC’s “The Exchange” last week, Dr. Ian Lipkin of Columbia University said it wasn’t possible for an official mortality rate to be determined because of variables such as an unknown number of asymptomatic infections and varying diagnosis methods.

“My estimate is that the actual mortality rate is going to be lower, probably less than 1%,” he said.

The new strain of coronavirus produces mild cold symptoms in about 80% of patients, a World Health Organization official told reporters last week. Around 15% of those who contracted COVID-19 ended up with pneumonia, while 3% to 5% of all patients needed intensive care, she said.
Men appear to be more vulnerable to the coronavirus: report

 

[otto]

Didn't the Chinese government state that the virus was a hoax? I think so. Authoritarian governments are most likely to deny the virus (China, Iran) and best likely to restrict and contain once they admit the problem.

In China, wasn't the whistleblower required to sign a statement stating that he lied and the virus was a hoax? Didn't he then die of the virus leaving behind a pregnant wife and infected parents?

 

[gitana1]

I'll look for a link - 20% is a number that I heard on the news or read somewhere, but let me see if I can find a source.

What I saw was approximately 70% of the world’s population could get it ultimately. So if 2% of them die that 980 million.

 

[gitana1]

It is encouraging that some have mild symptoms. I think the symptoms are worse in older people and those with other underlying health conditions and compromised immune systems.

Coronavirus is more fatal in men than women, major study suggests

Who is most at risk of coronavirus?
Elderly people and those with preexisting health conditions were most at risk of contracting a fatal case of COVID-19, researchers also noted.

Case fatality rate increased with age, with 14.8% of cases in people over age 80 resulting in death. Patients ages 70 to 79 had an 8% fatality rate, while those 60 to 69 had a fatality rate of 3.6%.

Researchers calculated an overall fatality rate of 2.3%, with a total of 1,023 deaths recorded among the confirmed cases of the virus in the study.

Cardiovascular disease was the preexisting condition most associated with increased fatalities, with the study reporting a fatality rate of 10.5% in patients who suffered with the condition. Diabetes sufferers had a fatality rate of 7.3%, while the frequency of fatalities was also higher than the overall rate in people with chronic respiratory disease, hypertension and cancer.

In patients with no reported underlying conditions, the fatality rate dropped to 0.9%, according to the study.
<snip>

However, the study’s fatality rate — which was reached by dividing the total number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases — does vary from other calculations. Some experts believe the total number of coronavirus cases could be much higher than the records show, which would make the mortality rate lower than currently estimated.

Speaking to CNBC’s “The Exchange” last week, Dr. Ian Lipkin of Columbia University said it wasn’t possible for an official mortality rate to be determined because of variables such as an unknown number of asymptomatic infections and varying diagnosis methods.

“My estimate is that the actual mortality rate is going to be lower, probably less than 1%,” he said.

The new strain of coronavirus produces mild cold symptoms in about 80% of patients, a World Health Organization official told reporters last week. Around 15% of those who contracted COVID-19 ended up with pneumonia, while 3% to 5% of all patients needed intensive care, she said.
Men appear to be more vulnerable to the coronavirus: report

That’s good to know.