Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #53

[musicaljoke]

if people won’t be immune from getting Covid, then a vaccine won’t provide immunity either, right? I have very little hope in a vaccine, my opinion.

Can’t stop virus transmission 100%. It is not realistic. We were just supposed to flatten the curve as to not overwhelm hospitals, not prevent 100% of infections. It will be there whether we go out now or in 2 months or in 18 months. If hospitals aren’t overwhelmed, we need to begin opening for business.
MOO

Yes, a vaccine can provide immunity. The best goal is to avoid getting CoV-19 until a vaccine is ready, which, btw, is completely doable, but is a very different goal than allowing the virus to run its course through the population and opening up for business.

 

[Teche]

O/T but

when shore crabbing using the chicken legs,
does any other creature ever grab the bait?

Yep, alligators in Louisiana.

 

[Henry2326]

That information does not appear to be true, and may be propaganda. Here are reports from the WHO site:
Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) - events as they happen

Pneumonia of unknown cause reported to WHO China Office
31 December 2019 At the close of 2019, the WHO China Country Office was informed of a pneumonia of unknown cause, detected in the city of Wuhan in Hubei province, China. According to the authorities, some patients were operating dealers or vendors in the Huanan Seafood market.

Staying in close contact with national authorities, WHO began monitoring the situation and requested further information on the laboratory tests performed and the different diagnoses considered.

WHO reports on pneumonia of unknown cause in China
5 January 2020 WHO published its risk assessment and advice and reported on the status of patients and the public health response by national authorities to the cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan.

10 January 2020 Developed with reference to other coronaviruses, such as SARS and MERS, WHO issued a tool for countries to check their ability to detect and respond to a novel coronavirus. This information is to help with identifying main gaps, assessing risks and planning for additional investigations, response and control actions.

It doesn't matter.....it was already in Europe in December 2019. I'm guessing as the world continues digging, it will show up in Italy and the US much earlier than we know now.

First positive #COVID19 case in #FRANCE, presented to ER on December 27, 2019.
Symptom onset December 23.
No travel history.

SARS-COV-2 was already spreading in France in late December 2019 - ScienceDirect

 

[musicaljoke]

It takes leadership to get people behind you. Some individuals have stepped up, and people are paying attention to what is said. Others have shown us the opposite.

Today I listened to MN Governor Walz's live update. He told Minnesotans where things stand, but he also gave others, including a small African business owner, time. IMO he was respectful, showed leadership, answered questions, and came across as genuinely concerned and honest. He is why most Minnesotans are behind the stay at home and closings.

Thumbs up!

 

[The Night Watchman]

<modsnip: quoted post was removed>

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation boosts vital work of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation

(2107) Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation pledges $279 million for IHME to expand its work, highlighting UW’s position as global hub for improving population health worldwide.

IHME Announcement

 

[musicaljoke]

It doesn't matter.....it was already in Europe in December 2019. I'm guessing as the world continues digging, it will show up in Italy and the US much earlier than we know now.

First positive #COVID19 case in #FRANCE, presented to ER on December 27, 2019.
Symptom onset December 23.
No travel history.

SARS-COV-2 was already spreading in France in late December 2019 - ScienceDirect

The part that I was referencing was the accusation that China didn't tell the WHO throughout most of January so they could stockpile medical supplies. I believe that is false, based on the WHO reports, and the fact that China was truly in trouble with a shortage of supplies for their own outbreak. PPE supplies were purchased, not so that they could stockpile them, but because they needed them. China made no secret about their need for PPE.


COVID-19 situation reports
Ottawa faces criticism for sending 16 tonnes of personal protective equipment to China in February

 

[IceIce9]

Just saw this. What the heck??

Воронежский врач Александр Шулепов упал со второго этажа. Он жаловался, что его заставляют работать после заражения коронавирусом Это третий российский медик, выпавший из окна за последние две недели — Meduza
Three Russian doctors treating the coronavirus have recently fallen from windows
According to Russian media, Dr. Aleksandr Shulepov is in critical condition after falling from a window. The incident happened following a video he made in which he complained about working while sick with COVID-19. Two other doctors in Russia who spoke out about their lack of PPE have died after falling from windows in the past two weeks.


Воронежский врач Александр Шулепов упал со второго этажа. Он жаловался, что его заставляют работать после заражения коронавирусом Это третий российский медик, выпавший из окна за последние две недели

I used Google Translate to read the article.

 

[musicaljoke]

Just saw this. What the heck??

Воронежский врач Александр Шулепов упал со второго этажа. Он жаловался, что его заставляют работать после заражения коронавирусом Это третий российский медик, выпавший из окна за последние две недели — Meduza
Three Russian doctors treating the coronavirus have recently fallen from windows
According to Russian media, Dr. Aleksandr Shulepov is in critical condition after falling from a window. The incident happened following a video he made in which he complained about working while sick with COVID-19. Two other doctors in Russia who spoke out about their lack of PPE have died after falling from windows in the past two weeks.


Воронежский врач Александр Шулепов упал со второго этажа. Он жаловался, что его заставляют работать после заражения коронавирусом Это третий российский медик, выпавший из окна за последние две недели

I used Google Translate to read the article.

My goodness! I would think that doctors who wished to end their lives could find something handy in their office. I suspect foul play.

 

[musicaljoke]

Global leaders unite to ensure everyone everywhere can access new vaccines, tests and treatments for COVID-19

Unprecedented gathering of heads of government, institutions and industry cements commitment to accelerate development and delivery for all populations
24 April 2020

Heads of state and global health leaders today made an unprecedented commitment to work together to accelerate the development and production of new vaccines, tests and treatments for COVID-19 and assure equitable access worldwide.
[...]
The challenge is to speed up and harmonize processes to ensure that once products are deemed safe and effective, they can be brought to the billions of people in the world who need them. Past experience, in the early days of HIV treatment, for example, and in the deployment of vaccines against the H1N1 outbreak in 2009, shows that even when tools are available, they have not been equally available to all.
[...]
They pledged to work towards equitable global access based on an unprecedented level of partnership. They agreed to create a strong unified voice, to build on past experience and to be accountable to the world, to communities and to one another.

 

[jjenny]

My goodness! I would think that doctors who wished to end their lives could find something handy in their office. I suspect foul play.

There is no way the guy would jump out of the second story window to commit suicide. It just not high enough.

 

[Wild Rose]

I hven't posted in such a long time about covid19 because knowing a little science is dangerous. I was hoping for a scientific breakthrough but Arizona State University just identified a woman's test sample of Covid19 and it showed 80 some deletions in its genome sequence of 30,000 which is wonderful. I will try to find the exact scientific paper to link but this is the first time I feel like a corner is turned. The deletions show that that virus is weakening in even one person which is really something to celebrate, omg. How many other people have a weakened virus?!!!!!! If the virus attenuates over time, our immune systems will be able to fight this terrible virus, to me this is better than a vaccine but that is IMOO because it shows that this virus is being weakened. I have thrills and chills thinking about this! Thank God for all the scientists and lab assistants and donors who go in everyday to work with this virus under all kinds of conditions in their own lives. Will look for the scientific link! Might just be an abstract! Wonderful.

 

[Wild Rose]

The article is for the Journal of Virology, titled "An 81 Nucleotide Deletion in SARS-CoV-2 ORF7a identified from sentinel surveillance in Arizona"

 

[Chelly]

I hven't posted in such a long time about covid19 because knowing a little science is dangerous. I was hoping for a scientific breakthrough but Arizona State University just identified a woman's test sample of Covid19 and it showed 80 some deletions in its genome sequence of 30,000 which is wonderful. I will try to find the exact scientific paper to link but this is the first time I feel like a corner is turned. The deletions show that that virus is weakening in even one person which is really something to celebrate, omg. How many other people have a weakened virus?!!!!!! If the virus attenuates over time, our immune systems will be able to fight this terrible virus, to me this is better than a vaccine but that is IMOO because it shows that this virus is being weakened. I have thrills and chills thinking about this! Thank God for all the scientists and lab assistants and donors who go in everyday to work with this virus under all kinds of conditions in their own lives. Will look for the scientific link! Might just be an abstract! Wonderful.

@Wild Rose . Is it possible that there are various degrees of covid strength? The woman you mentioned may have had a milder case, thus her test indicated a weak virus? Someone else with a severe case might test with a strong virus?

 

[Wild Rose]

All I remember from school is that when a virus mutates to a weakened state it is much better than if it mutates to become stronger. The human body is just amazing that we automatically form antibodies to even things that are man made in a lab, I just hope that the virus keeps weakening! I just know a little but from what I remember, this is a good sign! I do not work in a lab now, so this is IMOO from what is in my pea brain!

 

[Wild Rose]

So thankful to these lab heros! All over the world!

 

[Sundog]

I ordered one a few days ago!
Well, a notebook, but...
It's a Samsing so chances are...
It's made in China.
Moo

Samsung is a South Korean company.

 

[Tillicum]

Over 30 years ago, I'm sure they saved my life.

Coronavirus: Project Woman reports staggering increase in shelter requests

Project Woman, a domestic violence and sexual assault survivor service provider serving Clark, Champaign and Madison Counties, has seen a 74% increase in calls for shelter requests since Gov. Mike DeWine’s stay-at-home order, according to the organization’s executive director.

Laura Baxter said the number and length of calls to the Project Woman’s 24/7 crisis line have also “gone up significantly.” She said she believes the increase in calls and shelter requests are directly related to the governor’s order.

“We saw an increase as soon as it took affect,” Baxter said. “When we look at isolation or control patterns, and someone finds themselves being ordered to separate from work and children are asked to stay home from school, for people that are already isolated there is a potential for increased incidents of violence.”

 

[ZoriahNZ]

Some good news from New Zealand:

Covid 19 coronavirus: Zero new cases for second day in a row

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Carnival announces plan to resume cruises amid coronavirus pandemic

• Beginning Aug. 1, Carnival plans to resume cruises on the following ships:
  • Galveston: Carnival Dream, Carnival Freedom and Carnival Vista
  • Miami: Carnival Horizon, Carnival Magic and Carnival Sensation
  • Port Canaveral: Carnival Breeze and Carnival Elation

SMDH

 

[Henry2326]

I hven't posted in such a long time about covid19 because knowing a little science is dangerous. I was hoping for a scientific breakthrough but Arizona State University just identified a woman's test sample of Covid19 and it showed 80 some deletions in its genome sequence of 30,000 which is wonderful. I will try to find the exact scientific paper to link but this is the first time I feel like a corner is turned. The deletions show that that virus is weakening in even one person which is really something to celebrate, omg. How many other people have a weakened virus?!!!!!! If the virus attenuates over time, our immune systems will be able to fight this terrible virus, to me this is better than a vaccine but that is IMOO because it shows that this virus is being weakened. I have thrills and chills thinking about this! Thank God for all the scientists and lab assistants and donors who go in everyday to work with this virus under all kinds of conditions in their own lives. Will look for the scientific link! Might just be an abstract! Wonderful.

This is a tweet from Harald Ringbauer who appears to be knowledgeable in population genetics. I don't even begin to claim to understand all he says but here are some highlights....my interpretation, I think.....4 mutations appear to be more virulent and becoming more prominent.

Lately there has been speculation about a SARS-CoV-2 clade defined by four mutations that globally rose to >60 % frequency. Here are the dynamics per country and US state. Heads-up: Not only increased infectivity can explain such dynamics, but also expansion bottle necks. 1/11 Harald Ringbauer on Twitter

These four "equivalent" mutations draw attention because two change a codon in ORF1b and in the infamous S protein - (the latter one is key for host specificity). So far, SARS-CoV-2 has only 49 mutations with >1% frequency, and these four are the only ones with >25% 3/11 Harald Ringbauer on Twitter

Now, these four mutations are interesting to follow globally: They are almost absent in early East Asia, but now dominate in many European countries (e.g. Italy, Switzerland, France Belgium), and much of the US (in particular the hard hit East Coast). 5/11

Interestingly, in countries where one observed a mixture initially (US west coast, UK, Australia, Brazil) - the derived clade seems to rise now. If there is any difference in infectivity we really should know, as it changes what containment measures stabilize R0~<1. 6/11

But the prior for a "selection" scenario is low; in population genetics serial population bottlenecks that spawn exponentially growing local offshoots are a prime scenario of something we call "drift" or "gene surfing" - making rare mutations much more common by chance. 7/11

It could well be these four mutations were the lucky ones in Europe, rose to high frequency there and established "later" colonies in the US that took over because there are more of them. But in the lack of a good demographic model this is very hard to assess. 8/11

So we need 1) More viral genomic data from later weeks where founder effects become less prominent; and ideally with no glaring holes in geographic sampling and 2) Other lines of evidence (infectivity assays on cell lines, clinical data cross-linked to clades). 10/11

Harald Ringbauer on Twitter