Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #53

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Washington, DC, has continued to see an overall rise in coronavirus cases over the last seven weeks.

As of Thursday, DC tested 21,135 people, with 4,658 total positives. There have been a total of 231 deaths. The number of positive cases took a drastic jump to 335 cases Friday — the biggest rise in a single day.

Friday’s rise in cases coincides with the first day DC has received more than 1,000 test results in a single day.

DC’s stay-at-home order is set to expire on May 15.

US coronavirus update: Some states have partially reopened
 
The Night Watchman said:
The power of words, bias, and incorrectly using data.

First article seems to look at Sweden curiously, trying to find an answer as to why the country hasn't been overrun. Quotes experts both supporting and disagreeing with Sweden's policy.

The second article goes scorched earth to question Sweden's results and morality. Of course the author compares deaths rates of confirmed cases between countries, which is pretty meaningless since the amount of testing varies.

Same basic information available to the authors for each article. But it seems news reporting is dead, as articles have become simple editorials, with the author cherry picking information to suit their pre-conceived agenda.

How Sweden has faced the coronavirus without a lockdown | Boston.com

Sweden’s death rate of 22 per 100,000 people is the same as that of Ireland, which has earned accolades for its handling of the pandemic, and far better than in Britain or France.

Yet, on this warm spring day, at least, there was little evidence that people were observing the protocols — adding further mystery to Sweden’s apparent success in handling the scourge without an economically devastating lockdown.

All around Lilja along Skanegatan Street in the Sodermalm neighborhood of Stockholm, younger Swedes thronged bars, restaurants and a crowded park last week, drinking in the sun.

They laughed and basked in freedoms considered normal in most parts of the world not long ago, before coronavirus lockdowns, quarantines and mass restrictions upended social norms. As other nations in Europe begin to consider reopening their economies, Sweden’s experience would seem to argue for less caution, not more.

While other countries were slamming on the brakes, Sweden kept its borders open, allowed restaurants and bars to keep serving, left preschools and grade schools in session, and placed no limits on public transport or outings in local parks. Hairdressers, yoga studios, gyms and even some cinemas have remained open.

Gatherings of more than 50 people are banned. Museums have closed, and sporting events have been canceled. At the end of March, authorities banned visits to nursing homes.

That’s roughly it. There are almost no fines and police officers can only ask people to oblige. Pedestrians wearing masks are generally stared at as if they have just landed from Mars.

****

Sweden's coronavirus death rate is nearly double that of the U.S., Trump says country is 'paying heavily' for not imposing a lockdown

Cases of the novel coronavirus continue to rise in Sweden, which has a death rate of over 12 percent, the sixth highest in the world among countries with more than 1,000 confirmed cases, as of Thursday, according to the latest figures from Johns Hopkins University.

Sweden's death rate is more than twice as high as that of the U.S. (around 5.8 percent), the current epicenter of the outbreak which has the highest death toll in the world, and of China (around 5.5 percent), where the virus was first reported in the city of Wuhan.

The country has sparked controversy for its seemingly relaxed approach to combating the pandemic by surprisingly choosing not to impose a nationwide lockdown, while many of its European neighbors, including across Scandinavia, have done so.

The country has reported more than 21,000 confirmed cases, including nearly 2,500 fatalities. Its death rate is nearly six times as high as that of Norway (nearly 2.6 percent) and nearly triple that of its other Scandinavian neighbors Finland (nearly 4.2 percent) and Denmark (nearly 4.9 percent).
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I agree with you about the 'confusion' when trying to research what is going on with Sweden's strategy with the pandemic. I am sincerely wanting t0 see how this immunity strategy plays out.

But it is hard to find articles that are not highly judgmental and even misleading in their approach to the subject.
 
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tresir2012 said:
I have looked and quoted China figures and UK so far. No deaths for under 14 in those two countries. I am going to look at Germany and Sweden and probably Switzerland. The kids are getting it but not seriously so to my mind whether they are contagious is really something WHO should have worked out by now.
Click to expand...

Did you read this, the last time I posted it?

It's about children shedding virus while asymptomatic in the same amounts as adults:

https://zoonosen.charite.de/fileadm...s-of-SARS-CoV-2-viral-load-by-patient-age.pdf

Viral load is the same, regardless of symptom status or age. The study is empirical, meaning they had real people in the study, not just numbers about transmission. That's very valuable information. If it's true in Germany, it's probably true elsewhere. WHO has in fact said that the jury is out but that we should assume children can transmit.

We've discussed this at length, and I am only going to say one more time that we can't have big sample sizes of children at this point in time. If children need to have their blood drawn for other reasons, we'll possibly get more data. For example, as children go into hospitals for routine things like tonsillectomies, then perhaps their doctors will recommend some antibody testing and perhaps the parents will consent (I sure would).

But we can't go around asking children in the streets to have pinpricks or go door to door, as they are in some places, asking adults to get the pinprick.

If live virus is in the noses, throats and mouths of kids, and it is identical to CoVid-19 virus, then those children have live virus in their noses, throats and mouths, and viruses don't know who their hosts are or behave differently just because the person is a child. Children's bodies handle it different (see my earlier post), but they do get CoVid, remain asymptomatic, and they do develop immunity, thankfully.

There are a huge number of articles about why, so far, adults have been the main vectors. This is not dissimilar in that way to the 1918 pandemic. We are seeing only the first phases of this pandemic, and the WHO has clearly stated that it believes we should treat children as capable of transmitting until more is known.

COVID-19: IFRC, UNICEF and WHO issue guidance to protect children and support safe school operations

WHO doesn't "figure things out" by funding major research. Instead, it correlates research from juried sources and public health statistics. It does fund some research, of course, and it makes recommendations. I wouldn't go just on WHO recommendations (many many variables in the global data). I'd go by CDC if in the US.

And if I were in Europe, I'd be very concerned about the "Kawasaki-inducing" strain. BTW, the way in which adults are dying/being severely infected looks very similar to Kawasaki, a syndrome thought to be only a thing in children

COVID-19: U.K. says kids with no underlying conditions have died from syndrome linked to virus

With CoVid, kids without Kawasaki's are getting it (and at older ages - and there are a large number of them, some have died) and many of the most severely affected adults have the same symptoms.

All public health agencies (CDC, WHO) are very cautious, as they should be.

If this strain in Italy/UK (see last link above) is specifically more aggressive toward veins and arteries, that's exceptionally serious and it's way too soon to have data, other than the healthy children getting exceptionally ill, sick enough to have lifelong consequences. Let's keep in mind that death is not the only negative outcome of CoVid-19.

At the same time, it's true that children are very unlikely to die of CoVid - but are able to transmit it.
 
tresir2012 said:
Maybe they have already had it and got over it? I don't want to see anyone hurt so let's just hope for a peaceful protest if at all possible.
Click to expand...

Unlikely that they would know, as California doesn't have widespread antibody testing. We haven't even testing a tiny portion of our population. There are 10 million Los Angelenos, and only 22,000 have tested positive for CoVid.

At any rate, since no one knows how long they are contagious and some people are contagious far longer than others, a person who has recovered should be retested frequently and not go out in public until clear for at least a couple of weeks. It's too soon for all of that to have happened. Indeed, we're just learning that one area in Los Angeles (Pasadena) has a tremendous number of positive cases - and just in the last few days. 8 deaths in one day in Pasadena.

Pasadena coronavirus deaths now surpass all of Orange County’s – Pasadena Star News

Pasadena no longer has hospital capacity for all its patients and those patients are being treated in a temporary hospital in a convention center.

No one can know if they are infected prior to symptoms, at least not in California. In Finland, yes - the whole nation has been tested. But not in the US and certainly not in California.
 
10ofRods said:
Did you read this, the last time I posted it?

It's about children shedding virus while asymptomatic in the same amounts as adults:

https://zoonosen.charite.de/fileadm...s-of-SARS-CoV-2-viral-load-by-patient-age.pdf

Viral load is the same, regardless of symptom status or age. The study is empirical, meaning they had real people in the study, not just numbers about transmission. That's very valuable information. If it's true in Germany, it's probably true elsewhere. WHO has in fact said that the jury is out but that we should assume children can transmit.

We've discussed this at length, and I am only going to say one more time that we can't have big sample sizes of children at this point in time. If children need to have their blood drawn for other reasons, we'll possibly get more data. For example, as children go into hospitals for routine things like tonsillectomies, then perhaps their doctors will recommend some antibody testing and perhaps the parents will consent (I sure would).

But we can't go around asking children in the streets to have pinpricks or go door to door, as they are in some places, asking adults to get the pinprick.

If live virus is in the noses, throats and mouths of kids, and it is identical to CoVid-19 virus, then those children have live virus in their noses, throats and mouths, and viruses don't know who their hosts are or behave differently just because the person is a child. Children's bodies handle it different (see my earlier post), but they do get CoVid, remain asymptomatic, and they do develop immunity, thankfully.

There are a huge number of articles about why, so far, adults have been the main vectors. This is not dissimilar in that way to the 1918 pandemic. We are seeing only the first phases of this pandemic, and the WHO has clearly stated that it believes we should treat children as capable of transmitting until more is known.

COVID-19: IFRC, UNICEF and WHO issue guidance to protect children and support safe school operations

WHO doesn't "figure things out" by funding major research. Instead, it correlates research from juried sources and public health statistics. It does fund some research, of course, and it makes recommendations. I wouldn't go just on WHO recommendations (many many variables in the global data). I'd go by CDC if in the US.

And if I were in Europe, I'd be very concerned about the "Kawasaki-inducing" strain. BTW, the way in which adults are dying/being severely infected looks very similar to Kawasaki, a syndrome thought to be only a thing in children

COVID-19: U.K. says kids with no underlying conditions have died from syndrome linked to virus

With CoVid, kids without Kawasaki's are getting it (and at older ages - and there are a large number of them, some have died) and many of the most severely affected adults have the same symptoms.

All public health agencies (CDC, WHO) are very cautious, as they should be.

If this strain in Italy/UK (see last link above) is specifically more aggressive toward veins and arteries, that's exceptionally serious and it's way too soon to have data, other than the healthy children getting exceptionally ill, sick enough to have lifelong consequences. Let's keep in mind that death is not the only negative outcome of CoVid-19.

At the same time, it's true that children are very unlikely to die of CoVid - but are able to transmit it.
Click to expand...
Yes I read it and commented IIRC that 47 was not a real big sample which is why I am looking for some higher numbers. Sweden would be ideal to look at as they did not close schools.
 
<modsnip: quoted post was removed>

It breaks my heart to say, but even if businesses open up this very second, as speedy as speedy can be, there just might not be customers to support them.

Slower might actually be better in the long run - give people a chance to warm up to the idea of spending money. I'm thinking many consumers (individuals as well as businesses) are going to be conservative in their spending for awhile.

No easy answer, imo. Whatever the case, practicing social distancing will be the key to recovery. imo

jmo
 
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10ofRods said:
Unlikely that they would know, as California doesn't have widespread antibody testing. We haven't even testing a tiny portion of our population. There are 10 million Los Angelenos, and only 22,000 have tested positive for CoVid.

At any rate, since no one knows how long they are contagious and some people are contagious far longer than others, a person who has recovered should be retested frequently and not go out in public until clear for at least a couple of weeks. It's too soon for all of that to have happened. Indeed, we're just learning that one area in Los Angeles (Pasadena) has a tremendous number of positive cases - and just in the last few days. 8 deaths in one day in Pasadena.

Pasadena coronavirus deaths now surpass all of Orange County’s – Pasadena Star News

Pasadena no longer has hospital capacity for all its patients and those patients are being treated in a temporary hospital in a convention center.

No one can know if they are infected prior to symptoms, at least not in California. In Finland, yes - the whole nation has been tested. But not in the US and certainly not in California.
Click to expand...
It was a tongue in cheek comment. But if you have had it I think you would know and suspect it and maybe get a test.
However your Finland comment is interesting. I might look at their figures too.
 
Capitol physician doesn't have enough coronavirus tests for all lawmakers as Senate plans return

The capitol physician told Republican aides Thursday he does not have enough coronavirus tests for all lawmakers as senators are scheduled to return to Washington, D.C., on Monday, according to multiple media reports.

The news comes after Senate aides brought up the issue of COVID-19 testing to Capitol physician Brian Monahan this week, noting that most senators are considered at-risk for contracting the coronavirus.

Monahan told the staff that neither he, nor anybody else in the nation's capital, has access to the 15-minute tests the White House uses. He also noted that he does not have enough resources to test asymptomatic lawmakers, and will only be testing those who show signs associated with the disease such as cough, fever, difficulty breathing, runny nose and fatigue.
 
<modsnip: quoted post was removed as discussion was based on content from liberal bias publication>

Great article, it summarizes the conclusions of McKinsey and other think tanks. Here's a few quotes.

The latest: According to an analysis by McKinsey Global Institute, up to 86% of the vulnerable jobs paid less than $40,000 a year, and almost all (98%) of at-risk jobs paid less than the national living wage for a family of four ($68,808).

That's wild and yet there are no protests for cash payments to these families, so they can survive. Even unemployment (in FL) is designed to be difficult to get. It is only available for 3 months and pays a small % of earnings.

The potential job carnage spreads far beyond the service industry, affecting builders, transportation services, health aides, mechanics, social workers and some business and legal jobs.
  • "If we have 25 to 30% of people not earning income, it's a huge shock" to the economy, Lund said.
That is NOT TRUE. Many of those jobs are considered essential. Not all - but McKinsey (a consultant to the ultra-rich) is misleading here.



    • Tourism-dependent states like Nevada, Florida, Louisiana and Hawaii are likely to be hit hardest, McKinsey predicts.
    • For example, more than half of jobs in the Las Vegas area are vulnerable as the casinos, hotels and restaurants went dark.
We didn't need to McKinsey to tell us this! Inside joke - in the corporate world McKinsey is famous for charging huge fees for "telling us what we already know."

Demand is surging in other areas. The McKinsey report estimates that up to 3 million workers could find short-term employment in grocery stores, pharmacies, hospitals, e-commerce warehouses and as delivery drivers.



    • Yes, but: Worries about exposure to the virus may prevent workers from seeking employment in those settings.
Again, why no cash payments like other developed countries, so people won't need to expose themselves to feed their families.

<modsnip: no link to direct quote>

MOO - somewhere in between. If companies don't pay a living wage, are they job creators or poverty exploiters? Safety in the workplace is necessary to reopen, as is testing and contact tracing. However, contact tracing is probably NOT feasible in a country as large as the USA.
 
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\
BUF said:
Capitol physician doesn't have enough coronavirus tests for all lawmakers as Senate plans return

The capitol physician told Republican aides Thursday he does not have enough coronavirus tests for all lawmakers as senators are scheduled to return to Washington, D.C., on Monday, according to multiple media reports.

The news comes after Senate aides brought up the issue of COVID-19 testing to Capitol physician Brian Monahan this week, noting that most senators are considered at-risk for contracting the coronavirus.

Monahan told the staff that neither he, nor anybody else in the nation's capital, has access to the 15-minute tests the White House uses. He also noted that he does not have enough resources to test asymptomatic lawmakers, and will only be testing those who show signs associated with the disease such as cough, fever, difficulty breathing, runny nose and fatigue.
Click to expand...
I wonder why the governor of California has access to thousands of quick 48 hour tests and the Capitol physician cannot test 100 senators that way?
 
BUF said:
Capitol physician doesn't have enough coronavirus tests for all lawmakers as Senate plans return

The capitol physician told Republican aides Thursday he does not have enough coronavirus tests for all lawmakers as senators are scheduled to return to Washington, D.C., on Monday, according to multiple media reports.

The news comes after Senate aides brought up the issue of COVID-19 testing to Capitol physician Brian Monahan this week, noting that most senators are considered at-risk for contracting the coronavirus.

Monahan told the staff that neither he, nor anybody else in the nation's capital, has access to the 15-minute tests the White House uses. He also noted that he does not have enough resources to test asymptomatic lawmakers, and will only be testing those who show signs associated with the disease such as cough, fever, difficulty breathing, runny nose and fatigue.
Click to expand...
Maybe it would be better to test the asymptomatic lawmakers - if someone has symptoms, send 'em home to recover from whatever illness they have and save the tests for the people without symptoms who could be spreading the virus without realizing it.

You couldn't do this for the whole population, but for a closed group like this, it could be done.

Well, if there were enough tests.

jmo
 
cody22 said:
Deaf New York residents sue Cuomo for not using a sign language interpreter during his daily coronavirus briefings - CNNPolitics

New York Virus News.....moo
Click to expand...

IceIce9 said:
Can’t they use closed captioning?
Click to expand...

From the article:
But, the complaint states, "the closed-captioning frequently contained errors or omissions that make it difficult or impossible for individuals who are deaf to understand the information being provided in the briefings."
Click to expand...

Hmm. Interesting statement to me, since in my home we often turn on CC when watching news and movies etc on tv. I feel like it works well enough for dh and me!
 
tresir2012 said:
We have been a little misled by the governments when we see where most of the deaths are happening. E.g. long term care, overcrowded cities and transport, very few deaths in under 40's etc, mainly those with underlying health conditions too. To deny families leisure time on beaches and in parks is draconian, especially now we have more data for the officials to go on. AJMOO of course.
Click to expand...

To say that it's ok if people over 40 or who live in crowded areas should be allowed to die so that people can have "leisure time on the beach" is one of the most cold-blooded and horrifying things I've ever heard.
 
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