Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #53

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BayouBelle_LA said:
Coronavirus: Amid New York's unused hospital beds and ventilators, critics point to mass waste and mismanagement
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The article is rather misleading. First of all, it quotes a surgeon and he says the pandemic has only killed about 60,000-65,000 Americans, which was true the day he spoke. However, it isn't over! We're only about halfway through this wave. We don't know how long the tails will take to flatten, but it is certainly not looking like the IMHE model of a nice, balanced bell curve is accurate.

In theory, if we have lost 60,000 citizens to CoVid at the midway point, if we now have better therapeutics, we can expect to lose another 30-40,000. So the initial estimates are wrong, but so is the doctor in the article. I think he's trying to talk about the "peak" state and hospital use, so I get his point. But we all know that New York wasn't affect equally, that certain areas of NYC saw massive overuse of resources, not under use. It was hard to know at the time just how bad it could get elsewhere, but the transit system in NYC bears great responsibility for how intense the pandemic was in NYC.

Personally, I think we'll get above 100,000 deaths for 2020, via CoVid, in the US - if all deaths are reported. Some states have not reported all their nursing home deaths, for example.

I say that because we've been at more than 2000 deaths per day in the US for about a week, with 3000 reported from yesterday. So hardly a stable, benign situation. That's 14,000 deaths per week if we can get down to 2000 (which remains to be seen). Or another 56,000 deaths in the next month. If we can bring our death rates down to an average of 1000 per day in the next month (which is possible, even with some states reopening, I guess), that's still another 30,000 deaths. For a total of 95,000. And it still won't be over.

By year end, we should definitely be above 100,000 and no one knows how close to 250,000 we'll be - but if I had to bet, I think we'll be closer to 200,000 than 60,000 deaths.

It just isn't over. It's not going to be over for a while.
 
I don't think we only going to lose 30,000 -40,000 more. This covid thing could go on for years, until we reach herd immunity, with at least 60% of population getting infected. We are far from 60% of population getting infected. So far only one drug (remdesivir) really showed some benefit in duration, but no benefit to death rate (difference was not significant) of those who are hospitalized. We don't have a vaccine, and not likely to get one really soon.
 
jjenny said:
Has this doctor quoted in this article checked that 65,000 already died? And in actually most likely more than 65,000 died, as not all dead people were tested for covid.
And it's far from over. And as states try to reopen, the cases will only go up, the deaths will only go up.
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You and I think alike. When the numbers are rectified for nursing homes, military bases, and deaths out-of-hospital (Lombardy has additional deaths-at-home from CV-related heart attacks), they will be higher.

If in fact we can stay below 100,000 for this year, it means all the shut down efforts really made a difference. But there's still next year, and if nothing stands in between us and CoVid (we go back to pre-CoVid policies), then we could have an epidemic that produces the same thing we just saw.

Speaking of which, what exactly can NYC do to avoid the subway problem again? I heard they plan to stop the trains at night for thorough disinfecting, but boy would I hate to ride those trains late in the day (and then they're going to use buses to transport people who need to get home in the middle of the night - lots of vectors and frankly, if once a day disinfection worked, then hospitals would not be having it so bad - it's immediate exposure to virion in the area, expelled by one's fellow commuters that did it).
 
CSIDreamer said:
Are we disagreeing over a word I left out? We have not been extending every couple of weeks.
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No, I am not disagreeing or picking on you for leaving out a word. Just clarifying (like to those who are overseas or who don't know how NY has been handling school closings) that NY has been closed and doing distance learning of some sort since mid-March, and extending every couple of weeks or so, and that today they closed for the rest of the year.

The terms "already closed" vs "already closed for the rest of the year" could be interpreted differently, as the former sounds like a hotspot didn't close their schools at all.
 
“No doubt in my mind that when you pull back mitigation, you’re going to start seeing cases crop up. If you’re not able to handle them, you’re going to see another peak, a spike, & then you almost have to turn the clock back to go back to mitigation.” - Fauci via @washingtonpost

COVID19 on Twitter
 
Stimulus checks: British national reportedly gets IRS payment

A British national living in London was surprised to discover her bank account had received a direct deposit for a stimulus payment of $1,200, says a published report.

According to The Washington Post, the woman identified as Elizabeth B. for fear of backlash received a stimulus payment on April 15.
...
 
cass523 said:
May 1, 10:39 a.m. The U.S. Department of Education has asked the University of Texas system to share documents relating to its relationship with the Wuhan Institute of Virology, which U.S. officials are investigating as a possible source of the coronavirus outbreak, The Wall Street Journal reported. There is no publicly available evidence supporting the theory that an accident at the lab is the source of the outbreak.

The letter from the Education Department is part of a broader probe into foreign gifts and contracts that has involved at least eight other universities. In addition to asking for documents relating to the University of Texas’s ties to the Wuhan lab and one of its researchers, Shi Zhengli, the department is also asking for records regarding the university system’s ties to the governing Chinese Communist Party and about two dozen Chinese universities and companies, including the telecommunication company Huawei. The department also asked for documents relating to any gifts and contracts from Eric Yuan, a U.S. citizen who leads Zoom Video Communications.

A Zoom spokesperson said Yuan had “not given any gifts to the University of Texas.” The Wuhan lab, Shi and Huawei all did not respond to The Wall Street Journal’s requests for comment. A spokesperson for the University of Texas said it intends to respond to the Education Department and declined to provide information about possible links to entities mentioned in the departments letter.

Live Updates: Latest News on Coronavirus and Higher Education
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:eek:....... Oh no ! Not my Texas Longhorns !..............:(......moo
 
10ofRods said:
You and I think alike. When the numbers are rectified for nursing homes, military bases, and deaths out-of-hospital (Lombardy has additional deaths-at-home from CV-related heart attacks), they will be higher.

If in fact we can stay below 100,000 for this year, it means all the shut down efforts really made a difference. But there's still next year, and if nothing stands in between us and CoVid (we go back to pre-CoVid policies), then we could have an epidemic that produces the same thing we just saw.

Speaking of which, what exactly can NYC do to avoid the subway problem again? I heard they plan to stop the trains at night for thorough disinfecting, but boy would I hate to ride those trains late in the day (and then they're going to use buses to transport people who need to get home in the middle of the night - lots of vectors and frankly, if once a day disinfection worked, then hospitals would not be having it so bad - it's immediate exposure to virion in the area, expelled by one's fellow commuters that did it).
Click to expand...

Cuomo stopped the subways last night for disinfection. No one is riding the subways and uber and taxis are still available. It’s not the first time a subway line or two was shut down. We live with that problem every day.

Cuomo most likely will have a slow return to work. Those telecommuting will continue. Every New Yorker now wears a mask when out and that will continue. I am sure we won’t go back to packed subways and trains. We will probably return to staggered hours and work from home. New York is not the only city with a train system.

We will know more in the coming weeks. My office has still not mentioned anything about returning to work yet and we have been out since March 18.
 
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pocketaccent said:
Stimulus checks: British national reportedly gets IRS payment

A British national living in London was surprised to discover her bank account had received a direct deposit for a stimulus payment of $1,200, says a published report.

According to The Washington Post, the woman identified as Elizabeth B. for fear of backlash received a stimulus payment on April 15.
...
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Wonderful, and I have yet to receive mine. Wonder how many other non-nationals received checks.
 

REVEALED: What really happened to mysterious 'mercy flight' from Wuhan to Sydney - Boeing 747 carrying much-needed medical supplies from coronavirus epicentre was turned around with all its cargo on board

Zoe Zaczek For Daily Mail Australia
6 hrs ago
...
A plane carrying precious medical supplies from China to Australia amid a world-wide shortage during the coronavirus pandemic sent back with all its cargo, it has been revealed.

The privately chartered Suparna flight touched down at Sydney Airport on April 8 with 70 tonnes of personal protective equipment (PPE) from Wuhan, the reported epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak.

The 500 cubic metres of cargo included one-million face masks, protective gowns, goggles, gloves, shoe covers, antiseptic wipes and coronavirus testing kits which have been hard to find in some parts of the country.
But according to 7NEWS.com.au, the Australian Government did not request or accept what was boarded on the plane.
The flight arrived in Australia as countries across the globe desperately scrambled to get their hands on medical supplies during the health crisis.

The increased demand also led to suppliers driving up the prices of PPE.

The Boeing 747, which touched down at about 9.30pm, flew out of Sydney back to Wuhan the following morning.
The 500 cubic metres of cargo included one-million face masks, protective gowns, goggles, gloves, shoe covers, antiseptic wipes and coronavirus testing kits which have been hard to find in some parts of the country.
According to the publication, it left with 11,298 tins of Viplus baby formula and 35,000 kilograms of Tasmanian Atlantic salmon on the aircraft.

The Australian Government will not confirm how much the Chinese delivery was on offer for but it seems as though the price tag was too much as the deal did not go through.
...
'International crew are permitted to transit through Australia but must remain in the port or airport, or self-isolate in accommodation for the duration of their transit,' a Department of Home Affairs spokesman said.


A Sydney Airport spokesperson told Daily Mail Australia at the time that cargo handlers would follow strict disease control protocols.
 
jjenny said:
Has this doctor quoted in this article checked that 65,000 already died? And in actually most likely more than 65,000 died, as not all dead people were tested for covid.
And it's far from over. And as states try to reopen, the cases will only go up, the deaths will only go up.
Click to expand...
Also, is this "NY-based surgeon" cool with the fact that those 65,000 people died in just about 2 months? Because that's a big deal. We aren't Sweden - we didn't have the infrastructure to allow for herd immunity in this nation from the get-go. We're headed there, for sure - a long and painful road. But without a certain amount of inefficiency, we wouldn't have been able to keep the numbers as low as they were. We shouldn't begrudge each other that. We all pay taxes and have to deal with inefficiency in the use of the funds. NY is a lightning rod to some news outlets for a number of reasons. But you would see this in any hard-hit state, if people looked for it. All JMO.
 
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Ireland announced its five-stage roadmap to easing Covid-19 restrictions tonight. Lockdown had been due to end May 5 but has now been extended to May 18, with a gradual further easing every three weeks after that depending on rates of infection.

(Irish prime minister) Taoiseach: Over 70s can leave homes from Tuesday, but most restrictions in place until 18 May

MEASURES IN PLACE to restrict the public’s movement and mitigate the spread of Covid-19 are to continue for several more weeks.

The announcement was made by the Taoiseach at Government Buildings in his latest address to the nation this evening, when it emerged that restrictions would be lifted on a phased basis between now and the end of the summer.

Two more weeks of tight restrictions will remain in place until 18 May, although there will be some changes before that date.

“We need two more weeks of tight restrictions to weaken the virus further so it doesn’t make a comeback,” Leo Varadkar said.

The country will be opened under a phased plan, with each phase coming into effect every three weeks. The final phase will commence on 10 August.

The 2km exercise distance will be expanded to 5km from Tuesday, while it will be possible for people to drive 5km from their place of residence. Over 70s will also be allowed to leave their homes to exercise and drive up to 5km away, also from Tuesday.

From 18 May, outdoor work like construction and landscaping will be allowed to resume.

Some retail outlets like garden centres, hardware stores and repair shops will be allowed to re-open and some outdoor sporting and fitness activities in small groups will be allowed.

Many regular health services will resume, and the Taoiseach indicated the possibility of allowing small groups of friends and family to meet outdoors.

“Not long from now, some summer night, we will see our friends again,” he said.

In later phases, other workplaces such as businesses, childcare facilities, preschools, restaurants, cafes, bars, cinemas and gyms will be allowed to reopen.

Schools and colleges will reopen in the new academic year, although it is understood that plans for the Leaving Certificate to be held from late July are still in place.

However, Varadkar also said that there is a risk of the virus re-surging as restrictions are lifted.

He said that the country may have to go back a phase if that happens at any time, until a vaccine or other effective treatment is developed.

Taoiseach: Over 70s can leave homes from Tuesday, but most restrictions in place until 18 May
 
Trino said:
Wonderful, and I have yet to receive mine. Wonder how many other non-nationals received checks.
Click to expand...

My daughter won’t receive one. Those over the age of 17 were excluded if they were a dependent on a parent’s return. She doesn’t even qualify for the child portion of the fund which is even crazier.

The older Generation Z is not happy.
 
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Key dates: Here's the plan for unwinding restrictions and getting life in Ireland back to normal

(Ireland)

TAOISEACH LEO VARADKAR has laid out a roadmap for a phased lifting of Covid-19 restrictions in Ireland this evening.

This plan – which can be read in full here – lays out the staggered approach to lifting certain measures put in place by the government to slow down the spread of Covid-19.

It must be noted that the plan is tentative and will be kept under constant review. There is an ongoing possibility that restrictions could be re-imposed.

The document setting out the plan noted that, across the different categories, phases might kick in at different times – for instance, a ‘middle phase’ education measure might start earlier than a social/recreational measure from the same ‘middle phase’.

This evening, Varadkar confirmed that current restrictions are to remain in place until 18 May. However, over 70s will now be allowed to leave their homes to exercise or drive within a 5km radius.

Proposed Timeline at link
 
While this is an opinion piece, it has a lot of quotes and facts to back it up. One source happens to be my cousin, Dr. Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University. You can google him, watch him be interviewed in January and in April, read his bio on Wikipedia. Pretty smart dude with a lot of experience in pandemics.

Determining COVID-19 origin key in safeguarding global health security

Robert Redfield, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), has confirmed that some COVID-19 deaths had been diagnosed as flu-related in the United States.

The news has led to questions about whether this new coronavirus originated in the States in the first place, given that the flu season began last September in the country—months before the outbreak in China's Wuhan, the host city for the 2019 Military World Games.

Questioning of the virus' origin began in February when a Japanese couple tested positive for COVID-19 in Japan after returning from a trip to Hawaii, where they were reportedly treated as having seasonal influenza.

On February 21, a program produced by TV Asahi questioned whether some coronavirus patients were treated as flu patients, given the poor health checkups ordinary Americans have and the similar symptoms it shares with COVID-19.

The CDC immediately refuted the possibility suggested by the Japanese television network. However, 20 days later, its director made a U-turn, admitting such cases.

Read more at the link. Stay safe and well.
 
https://nypost.com/2020/04/30/nearly-900-workers-at-tyson-foods-plant-test-positive-for-coronavirus/

Nearly 900 workers at a Tyson Foods pork plant test positive for coronavirus

The Logansport plant employs 2,200 people — 890, or 40 percent, of whom have tested positive for the illness.

“We were in good shape for a couple weeks and then just within the couple weeks it kind of blew up,” Serenity Alter, the health department administrator of Cass County, where the Tyson plant is, told the network.

Alter said that because of its high number of coronavirus cases, stay-at-home orders in the county should remain in place, despite Gov. Eric Holcomb’s expected plan to gradually lift restrictions on a regional basis, the report said.

“With our numbers increasing the way they are, hopefully, we will not be one of those regions just quite yet,” Alter said.
 
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