Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #57

[roche.analisa]

Man, it's hard to like this post, as it's such grim news. It turns out that indoor, cold/air conditioned areas allow the virus to linger longer. My cousin works in the grocery distribution chain in Colorado and I'm very worried about him, as all of the crews he oversees have to be trained in going in and out of big coolers, freezers, etc., and using refrigerated trucks, dollies, breathing hard, etc.

The back areas of grocery stores in Colorado are often kept cooler as well.

Another weird hypothesis (my own, so far as I know) is that people who work night shifts and sleep during the day may have less Vitamin D than others...so let's hope that most of these new cases are not serious. Packing houses in general, grocery supply chain...and trucks that visit those places are all vectors.

The vulnerable need to stay home a bit longer, IMO.

Yes, the air conditioning concerns worry me. It's going to make staying home in Texas longer, since doing much without air conditioning here in the summer isn't really an option.

 

[CSIDreamer]

As coronavirus testing expands, a new problem arises: Not enough people to test — The Washington Post

You can’t just drive up and get tested. You have to telemedicine your primary care doctor and go over your symptoms. If you don’t have almost every symptom - you don’t make the cut to get tested.

Indiana has been doing a thing where you schedule through one website. Any symptom will get you tested. Then basically once the appointments are finished, they put out a call and anyone can go get tested.

 

[mickey2942]

@roche.analisa I am sure that the rise in numbers of cases has absolutely nothing to do with people going to salons and getting their haircut or styled.

BTW, I cut my own hair. Looks pretty good. Makes me wonder why I wasted all of that money for years.

 

[10ofRods]

i really hate to say this but i think some people do not really understand the nature
of a pandemic-- i read so many comments on different sites like "it is just the flu"-
other people seem not to care about people dying from this virus-- they say things like
most people wont even get sick so why should we have to lock down? too many
people are pretending everything can get back to normal-- gathering in crowds
for example----and others see lockdown as violating their civil rights--that is
just absurd IMO-- all that said it seems there has to a balance between health
security and economic security-- finally, i believe if we had better leadership
a lot of these issues would work themselves out --

Good post. In California and elsewhere, polls are saying that 40% of people are going to continue to avoid restaurants, retail shops, theaters, etc.

Many businesses worry if their business drops by 2%. Older people are the main demographic for businesses like JC Penney's, and we know that company gave up hope of recovery. A favorite tourist restaurant in Rome (Armando dal Pantheon) may close permanently, as their profits are highly tuned to UK and US tourism. People in Rome get uneasy when tourism is even stagnant (1% less than the year before) because costs continue to rise. And boy, are costs going to continue to rise as China decides its 5 year game plan. And as borders stay closed or less permeable.

In fact, Italy fears that as many as half the restaurants in Rome may close. The last two years, tourism was down a bit in Rome due to fears that Alitalia would go bankrupt and people couldn't find direct flights from many places. SO, a third year - when hopes were up, now that Alitalia is on better footing, is going to be hard.

While it's sad for restaurants, it's going to be a rough couple of years. It's possible the US will be banned from non-essential travel into Italy for the next year (the sooner we get CV under control in the US, the faster that would be lifted).

I suspect, though, that the US will open soon to non-essential travel. At least, many states will. So I guess those states are hoping they'll get tourists too worried to go abroad.

Many business assumptions will be disrupted for the next 2 years, I think. We could forget all mandates to social distance tomorrow, accept higher CoVid rates and still not have a return to anything like a normal economy.

Because as long as CoVid is a real threat to so many people (all obese people, all diabetics, etc), many people are going to shield themselves and stay home. In fact, oddly, my students said they did way better scholastically despite the abrupt change to online teaching. Because they had nothing else to do. Many of them live with people over 50 and they do *not* want to come back to IRL school in the fall.

 

[mickey2942]

Lines form, crowd cheers for reopening of Arizona casino Friday

The absolute insanity here is staggering. Does anyone "need" to gamble or suffer from not having their immediate slot machine fix?

 

[10ofRods]

As a Texan...rolling my eyes. We are still distancing here at my house.



100% belongs in this thread (MOO).



Dr. Campbell on YouTube has discussed this extensively. He keeps telling people to go to the hospital if they need to.



And their rates are only going down b/c their lockdown measures were so effective, and NY is only opening up *very* gradually. A model for the rest of us, IMO.



As well, prices for so many things will go way up in the US if we aren't buying things made in China.

Edited for spelling.

Yep. The time (and capital) it'll take for North America to gear up to supply its own washing machines, driers, toasters, blenders, PPE, knick knacks, clothing-sold-mass-retail, sheets, hotel linens, fabric...and...as my DH keeps pointing out

Most computer peripherals
Computers themselves
Apple devices
Android devices
Etc., etc.

And of course, drugstore cosmetics. Cheaper dog food, etc. The US does make cosmetics in boutique batches, mostly in California. Canada makes a lot of skincare stuff - but would need to super scale up.

Where do we get our cars these days? Will anyone be buying them, with unemployment high from collapse of retail and restaurant/entertainment sector?

Will there be any movie theaters left?

 

[CSIDreamer]

Lines form, crowd cheers for reopening of Arizona casino Friday

The absolute insanity here is staggering. Does anyone "need" to gamble or suffer from not having their immediate slot machine fix?

Not me!

 

[jjenny]

The way they achieve the supposed decline in Georgia.
"Where does Sunday take place twice a week? And May 2 come before April 26?"
‘It’s just cuckoo’: state’s latest data mishap causes critics to cry foul

 

[HongKongPhooey]

That's great. So it becomes even harder to explain your large per capita death rates. What do you think it is? Your medical system didn't fail (which is what happened in Lombardy and New York).

I was, btw, trying to talk about Sweden's gamble. UK took the same gamble, had a lot of at-home deaths and nursing home deaths. You seem to be saying those were unavoidable in any case.

But can you say why the rates in UK are so much higher than in, say, Ireland? Ireland also had plenty of beds (keep in mind that my point is that New York and Lombardy did not and their death rates soared).

So let's just stipulate, for argument's state, that the UK's healthcare system handled this ably.

Stockholm may account for a larger percentage of mortality in Sweden - it would be interesting to compare Stockholm's rate to London's. Both nations have found a correlation between vitamin D levels and severity/mortality of CoVid.

But what about other variables? Is it really going to end up being London and Stockholm (cities) - and they are on par with each other? If so, I predict the flight of businesses from big cities will continue. Office real estate in big cities will see the bottom drop out of the market, and relatively deserted streets in major downtowns.

450,000 or so people have fled Manhattan. How many will return? Swedes say people left Stockholm, too. Did people leave London, I wonder? Truly don't know.

I havent heard anything about people leaving London. There have been rumblings in areas such as Cornwall, where a local FB page has as its cover picture #comebacklater and lots of angry posts about second homers going down there. Whether true or not I dont know. Most Brits dont have a second home because property prices are immense and land isnt plentiful. Our houses typically arent huge. Not big enough to accommodate a second family generally, thats for sure.

What London does have is a big multicultural base so lots of mosques, synagogues, churches. Packed in housing, small local shops. Packed buses, underground, trains etc. with most commuting on transport. Youngsters passing through for fun, working bars - Aussies, Irish. Huge Eastern European population, many people live in HMOs. Plus of course, all the travellers in and out. Business, tourism. V similar to NY from my own observation. Fascinating, vibrant places but so incredibly busy 24/7. I think I read you've been here @10ofRods so you'll see this in your mind's eye too. Wonderful, but frightening if disease arrives. Funnily enough I was just reading a book about the Tudors and Henry VIII was often staying away from here or there, due to plague. London will always be our most vulnerable place .

 

[roche.analisa]

Good post. In California and elsewhere, polls are saying that 40% of people are going to continue to avoid restaurants, retail shops, theaters, etc.

Many businesses worry if their business drops by 2%. Older people are the main demographic for businesses like JC Penney's, and we know that company gave up hope of recovery. A favorite tourist restaurant in Rome (Armando dal Pantheon) may close permanently, as their profits are highly tuned to UK and US tourism. People in Rome get uneasy when tourism is even stagnant (1% less than the year before) because costs continue to rise. And boy, are costs going to continue to rise as China decides its 5 year game plan. And as borders stay closed or less permeable.

In fact, Italy fears that as many as half the restaurants in Rome may close. The last two years, tourism was down a bit in Rome due to fears that Alitalia would go bankrupt and people couldn't find direct flights from many places. SO, a third year - when hopes were up, now that Alitalia is on better footing, is going to be hard.

While it's sad for restaurants, it's going to be a rough couple of years. It's possible the US will be banned from non-essential travel into Italy for the next year (the sooner we get CV under control in the US, the faster that would be lifted).

I suspect, though, that the US will open soon to non-essential travel. At least, many states will. So I guess those states are hoping they'll get tourists too worried to go abroad.

Many business assumptions will be disrupted for the next 2 years, I think. We could forget all mandates to social distance tomorrow, accept higher CoVid rates and still not have a return to anything like a normal economy.

Because as long as CoVid is a real threat to so many people (all obese people, all diabetics, etc), many people are going to shield themselves and stay home. In fact, oddly, my students said they did way better scholastically despite the abrupt change to online teaching. Because they had nothing else to do. Many of them live with people over 50 and they do *not* want to come back to IRL school in the fall.

My daughter will be a college freshman this Fall. Her college is doing only online for summer sessions. We have not yet heard a decision about Fall, but since she is immunocompromised, I suspect that if she has an online option (which I expect she will), she will choose it.

 

[Recidivist]

Lines form, crowd cheers for reopening of Arizona casino Friday

The absolute insanity here is staggering. Does anyone "need" to gamble or suffer from not having their immediate slot machine fix?

If they opened the local casinos and I had someone to watch my grandson, I might be compelled to visit the slots. The online casinos with fake money just doesn't compare to a real casino jackpot. I'm not sure though if I would actually go. The only places I miss are the casinos and Yosemite.

 

[RANCH]

Lines form, crowd cheers for reopening of Arizona casino Friday

The absolute insanity here is staggering. Does anyone "need" to gamble or suffer from not having their immediate slot machine fix?

I guess for some their gambling addiction is strong.

I'm glad I've never had that problem even with living in Northern California where there are Indian casinos and Nevada is close. JMO

 

[tresir2012]

That's great. So it becomes even harder to explain your large per capita death rates. What do you think it is? Your medical system didn't fail (which is what happened in Lombardy and New York).

I was, btw, trying to talk about Sweden's gamble. UK took the same gamble, had a lot of at-home deaths and nursing home deaths. You seem to be saying those were unavoidable in any case.

But can you say why the rates in UK are so much higher than in, say, Ireland? Ireland also had plenty of beds (keep in mind that my point is that New York and Lombardy did not and their death rates soared).

So let's just stipulate, for argument's state, that the UK's healthcare system handled this ably.

Stockholm may account for a larger percentage of mortality in Sweden - it would be interesting to compare Stockholm's rate to London's. Both nations have found a correlation between vitamin D levels and severity/mortality of CoVid.

But what about other variables? Is it really going to end up being London and Stockholm (cities) - and they are on par with each other? If so, I predict the flight of businesses from big cities will continue. Office real estate in big cities will see the bottom drop out of the market, and relatively deserted streets in major downtowns.

450,000 or so people have fled Manhattan. How many will return? Swedes say people left Stockholm, too. Did people leave London, I wonder? Truly don't know.

Deaths in care homes and at home is what has made the European cases so high so hospital beds did not affect that. The UK health service have done an incredible job. We don't have restrictions as with a private health system. Everyone gets a high standard of care from PM and Royalty down to homeless on the London streets. Dublin and Cork are not comparable to London, Manchester and Birmingham, which are major cities and have very large transport systems, accounting for the high cases sadly. Probably similar with Stockholm IMO. Population density also comes more into the mix in the big cities. AJMO

 

[mickey2942]

The way they achieve the supposed decline in Georgia.
"Where does Sunday take place twice a week? And May 2 come before April 26?"
‘It’s just cuckoo’: state’s latest data mishap causes critics to cry foul

Must be similar to the data in Florida.

 

[firebird]

sbm:
It's possible the US will be banned from non-essential travel into Italy for the next year (the sooner we get CV under control in the US, the faster that would be lifted).

Looks more like 2 1/2 weeks

Italy will be open to tourists on June 3

"The Italian government announced Saturday that it will throw open its borders next month, effectively ending Europe’s longest and strictest coronavirus lockdown just as the summer tourism season gets under way.

Both regional and international borders will open June 3, with the government eliminating a 14-day quarantine for anyone arriving from abroad. Many hope the move will revive a decimated tourist industry, which is worth 13% of Italy’s gross domestic product.

Such an opening is exactly what tourism operators have been waiting for -- even if European neighbors so far appeared be wary of the unilateral Italian announcement."


Tourists Can Travel To Italy Again In June

 

[Bailey38]

Well, now that does not make it look at all suspicious. I'm sure they'll have a realistic cause of death.

Covid 19 probably.

 

[10ofRods]

Deaths in care homes and at home is what has made the European cases so high so hospital beds did not affect that. The UK health service have done an incredible job. We don't have restrictions as with a private health system. Everyone gets a high standard of care from PM and Royalty down to homeless on the London streets. Dublin and Cork are not comparable to London, Manchester and Birmingham, which are major cities and have very large transport systems, accounting for the high cases sadly. Probably similar with Stockholm IMO. Population density also comes more into the mix in the big cities. AJMO

UK reports its nursing home deaths separately, AFAIK and has not put them into the numbers that are being used for per capita cases. Many US states doing the same.

I asked if we could just agree that UK has a great standard of care. So - you're down to public transportation and population density, right?

 

[10ofRods]

My daughter will be a college freshman this Fall. Her college is doing only online for summer sessions. We have not yet heard a decision about Fall, but since she is immunocompromised, I suspect that if she has an online option (which I expect she will), she will choose it.

Ah, I feel for her - but I know many of us are trying very very hard to improve the online experience. Zoom use is way up.

I have two classes set up with an option to have real world meetings if circumstances warrant (but I'm high risk, due to age).

Tell her to look for younger profs! With a little research, she can figure that out.

 

[CoverMeCagney]

Deaths in care homes and at home is what has made the European cases so high so hospital beds did not affect that. The UK health service have done an incredible job. We don't have restrictions as with a private health system. Everyone gets a high standard of care from PM and Royalty down to homeless on the London streets. Dublin and Cork are not comparable to London, Manchester and Birmingham, which are major cities and have very large transport systems, accounting for the high cases sadly. Probably similar with Stockholm IMO. Population density also comes more into the mix in the big cities. AJMO

Agreed. The UK population density is approx 700 people per square mile, England on its own is over 1000, London is more like 10,000. London got hammered because of all the reasons HKP mentioned added on to plane loads of families flying in from half-term skiing holidays in northern Italy /the Alps. Had this happened a few weeks earlier, and had overseas travel been restricted BEFORE half term at the end of February, our case numbers would surely have been much lower. Same with the other Euro countries.

The USA as a whole has a very low population density in comparison - well under 100 people per square mile on average - and some of their higher density areas have been hit in a similar way to the UK. We are roughly the same size as Oregon, but with 66 million people living here.

I reckon lots of people in big cities will relocate after this. I know three families leaving London when this is over: one because of financial reasons (he lost his job, they can sell up and buy somewhere bigger up north), one because they can now work from home more and commute less so don't need to be central, one simply because they no longer want the hustle and bustle of rammed tube stations, trains and buses.

Look out rural UK, the townies are coming lol!!

 

[RosalindaA]

Thank you nhmemorymaker, I just wanted people to understand how hard it is to protect the population in the care and nursing homes. We had about 34 residents in that home and thinking about it last night I imagined myself as an unaware virus carrier on a single typical shift...by the end of it I would have probably had close contact with at least half the residents, all of the staff on duty (most homes/hospitals have a handover where you are typically stuffed into a tiny office for 15 mins or so). I would have chatted to the secretary, the laundry lady, the kitchen staff, the cleaners and to several visitors. I would have got close to all the residents at meal times and tea trolley times and been handing them dishes and cups, and passing them their walking sticks frames, etc. The chains of contact are infinite, and that's one shift.
I eventually realise I am sick and isolate, by then all the staff and residents I have infected become infectious and become sick. There's not enough staff to cover the home safely so you book agency staff. Hopefully by then you know you have a problem and give the agency staff the choice to come in or not. How these homes are staffing themselves I really cannot imagine.

And thank you SallyE, I had my good days as a carer, I had my not so good days! We're all human, but hopefully it's reassuring to those here who are worrying about family and friends in these facilities, that the vast majority of staff take their duty to their patients/residents very seriously. There is nothing worse than feeling you have let someone down or passed an infection on to someone vulnerable. I knew a young staff nurse, a year ahead of me who, when very stressed, blamed herself for a patient's wound becoming infected. Knowing this particular patient who had a lot of difficulties, it would have been almost impossible to have prevented this and the infection did resolve fine. But this young nurse attempted suicide, was admitted to our local general hospital and managed to find her way to a top storey window and fell to her death. That was another experience that never left me.

There are a lot of nurses who have vulnerabilities to anxiety/dep and OCD. Many of them have made the decision to move out of their homes and live in temp accommodation because they know even with PPE they will probably become infected. Imagine living with the knowledge that you passed an infection that might end up killing your mother or father or child or sister. Extremely stressful on top of an already stressful job with death all around you and very little treatment to offer to people. I remember being granted leave from another home that I worked at years later to move back in with my mother when she was dying of cancer. Just after that the home had an outbreak of something not lethal but extremely unpleasant and hard to get rid of. I remember thanking God that I dodged that bullet and didn't infect my mother in that already very hard situation, I would have just completely lost it, I think.
Nursing and care staff have even moved in with their residents to try and keep the virus out of homes, I am sure this has happened all over the world. But how long can they be expected not to see their families and friends?