Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #79

[10ofRods]

These are some of the things that are never considered by those who only focus on eliminating all Covid-related deaths - even if that means keeping everything closed for 100 years. This, in my opinion, is why it so important that professional (and some college) sports drew a line in the sand and said "we're playing."

Our niece was telling us about the protocols in Apple stores that have reopened - mostly sanitizing every item that anyone has, or could, possibly ever touch. In the mean time, my wife and I went to In & Out Burger, and we noticed that three parties, including us, used the same table and the staff never even wiped off the last group's crumbs, let alone sanitized it. So either the restaurant is a death trap, or Apple is putting on a show for the sake of appearances.

Can you name or mention even one person whose goal is to "eliminate ALL CoVid deaths"? Who is that?

 

[anneg]

A moving look at the pandemic’s effects on Americans from all walks of life: https://www.washingtonpost.com/grap...0000-death-toll-coronavirus/?itid=hp_national

What a powerful, moving article... thanks for posting.

 

[10ofRods]

Coronavirus: 'Critical point' in pandemic as UK infection rate heading in wrong direction, says chief medical officer

England's chief medical officer Professor Chris Whitty has warned the rate of COVID-19 infections in the UK is "heading in the wrong direction".

Later this morning, Professor Whitty and chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance will deliver a televised briefing on the latest coronavirus data.

According to Downing Street, they will explain how the coronavirus is currently spreading - and set out "potential scenarios" for the months ahead.

They will not be joined by Prime Minister Boris Johnson or any members of the cabinet, and will not take questions from journalists.

By "critical," they are probably looking at this projection:

UK Coronavirus cases may reach 50,000 per day

In the first phase of CoVid in UK, it was mostly the big cities. Now, it is seeded throughout many much smaller towns. There are still issues with CoVid in care homes.

50,000 per day is a scary number - I think the government is trying to get people to obey the new mandates (after a weekend of unmasked crowds celebrating their freedom to be out and in contact with CoVid).

Personally, I think 50,000 is a high estimate based on current numbers. I hope people will begin modifying their behavior as total cases go up (getting CoVid is a serious matter for about 20% of people who do not die from it). And it can be a serious issue in employment and family life for the remainder.

UK had only about 4000-4400 new cases for each of the past two days. But apparently, R-naught is high enough for that projection to be made. It's mind-boggling to think that some British medical scientists think it can get that high. Is it because indoor weather is about to begin?

Anyway, the projection above says 200 deaths per day by mid-November for UK.

 

[10ofRods]

"Long Covid" from the BMJ

Long covid: How to define it and how to manage it

“Profound fatigue” was a common symptom in most people with long covid, she said, but added that a wide range of other symptoms included cough, breathlessness, muscle and body aches, and chest heaviness or pressure, but also skin rashes, palpitations, fever, headache, diarrhoea, and pins and needles. “A very common feature is the relapsing, remitting nature of the illness, where you feel as though you’ve recovered, then it hits you back,” she said.

Nick Peters added to this definition by highlighting a “distinction between very sick people who have recovered to an extent and [and have been] left with some impact of their severe sickness, versus those who had a relatively mild sickness from the start, in whom it is ongoing.”

Alwan described the fluctuations of her own illness: “It’s a constant cycle of disappointment, not just to you but people around you, who really want you to recover.”

Paul Garner, who also has long covid, described it as a “very bizarre disease” that had left him feeling “repeatedly battered the first two months” and then experiencing lesser episodes in the subsequent four months with continual fatigue. “Navigating help is really difficult,” he said.

Tim Spector said that his team at the Covid Symptom Study had identified six clusters of symptoms for covid-19,1 a couple of which were associated with longer term symptoms, indicating a possible way of predicting early on what might occur. “If you’ve got a persistent cough, hoarse voice, headache, diarrhoea, skipping meals, and shortness of breath in the first week, you are two to three times more likely to get longer term symptoms,” he said.

[...]

Great post. People are deemed "recovered" from CoVid when they have had 2 negative tests a couple of days apart.

However, that in no way implies that they feel completely well or are over it entirely. Some doctors are proposing a post-Covid Syndrome to cover the diagnosis and treatment for the thousands of people who suffer from it. Fatigue, brain zaps and other neuro symptoms, muscle and body aches are common symptoms. 100,000 people joined a FB group identifying themselves as long haulers.

Vocal rehab is not always successful. One of my more distant family members has been in a care home/doing various rehab for 3 weeks after testing negative (60-something) and still cannot speak. She was in hospital on a ventilator for nearly a month.

'Post-COVID Syndrome' Is Causing Lingering Symptoms in Some COVID-19 Survivors

 

[weepingangel]

Kentucky doctor who urged mask-wearing early on dies of Covid-19
More at link
In the early weeks of the pandemic, before coronavirus cases crushed hospitals in New York and spiked in other states, Dr. Rebecca Shadowen asked her friends a question on Facebook.

"If you could save the life of another person without harming your own, would you?" Shadowen, an infectious disease specialist in Kentucky, posted on March 13.


From the start, the doctor advocated for social distancing, hand-washing and mask-wearing, and she hoped her community of Bowling Green could become a model for the rest of her state, where residents sparred over stay-at-home orders and challenged Kentucky's mask mandate in the courts.


In May, while offering her expertise as a member of the Bowling Green-Warren County Coronavirus Workgroup, Shadowen fell ill. At first, she complained of feeling tired, but on the night she was taken to the hospital, she woke up saying she was short of breath, her husband, David, said.

She toggled between local hospitals for the next four months, at times being placed on a ventilator and in the intensive care unit. During weeks she regained her strength, she was lucid enough to continue working from her hospital bed and share what she knew about the virus that was ravaging her body in unexpected ways.

 

[MrX]

Can you name or mention even one person whose goal is to "eliminate ALL CoVid deaths"? Who is that?

Our friends from Australia and New Zealand appear intent on eliminating all cases, with death prevention being the prime motivating factor. I've noticed that death rates are often brought up whenever different approaches are discussed - perhaps I'm wrong, but I always take them to be saying that one Covid death is always one too many. And Covid deaths feel like they are portrayed as somehow more "sacred" than others. It's just the impression I get whenever openings/closures are discussed. I understand that, the longer this goes on, the harder it will be for people on opposite sides to comprehend the other.

 

[MrX]

Arizona reports 233 new coronavirus cases, 2 additional deaths

"The number of COVID-19 patients in ICU beds was down to 119, tying the fewest ever recorded."

I check local news sources everyday and have never seen a story about case clusters or contact tracing, with the exception of UofA telling students to shelter in place for two weeks. We are coming out of our "winter," where everyone is confined indoors, due to heat, and reaching a point where things like outdoor dining become options. Everything here got really bad, and then got way better, without changes in behavior. Perhaps, someday, someone will figure out how and why. In my opinion, they need to look at extreme heat and lack of humidity. Normally at this time of the year I am crushed with debilitating allergies - I have zero symptoms this season.

 

[KALI]

When going to a public place, I sanitize with my own sanitizer. No matter what. Can't hurt to be extra cautious.

These are some of the things that are never considered by those who only focus on eliminating all Covid-related deaths - even if that means keeping everything closed for 100 years. This, in my opinion, is why it so important that professional (and some college) sports drew a line in the sand and said "we're playing."

Our niece was telling us about the protocols in Apple stores that have reopened - mostly sanitizing every item that anyone has, or could, possibly ever touch. In the mean time, my wife and I went to In & Out Burger, and we noticed that three parties, including us, used the same table and the staff never even wiped off the last group's crumbs, let alone sanitized it. So either the restaurant is a death trap, or Apple is putting on a show for the sake of appearances.

 

[10ofRods]

Arizona reports 233 new coronavirus cases, 2 additional deaths

"The number of COVID-19 patients in ICU beds was down to 119, tying the fewest ever recorded."

I check local news sources everyday and have never seen a story about case clusters or contact tracing, with the exception of UofA telling students to shelter in place for two weeks. We are coming out of our "winter," where everyone is confined indoors, due to heat, and reaching a point where things like outdoor dining become options. Everything here got really bad, and then got way better, without changes in behavior. Perhaps, someday, someone will figure out how and why. In my opinion, they need to look at extreme heat and lack of humidity. Normally at this time of the year I am crushed with debilitating allergies - I have zero symptoms this season.

Google analytics disagrees with you - Arizonans *did* change their behavior. And so did tourists. Go look at the number of canceled trips reported on TripAdvisor for April-August for Arizona (especially Northern Arizona).

Plus, people in the world who are not Arizonans changed their behavior (by not flying in the same numbers through Sky Harbor). All of this helped.

Now, people are moving around more and travel is up - and you've got a little spike going on. I'd keep an eye on it.

Arizona still has almost 175,000 active cases and analysis of travel and of internal mobility shows people are still staying home more than usual.

So people have changed their behavior - sometimes it doesn't take much. Live cameras and recent city walks from a handful of Arizona cities and towns show that people are in fact wearing masks (not all of them, but at least half of them).

Therefore, you have only 175,000 people currently shedding CoVid.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Coronavirus: UK's COVID-19 alert level upgraded to level four amid 'rapidly' rising cases

The UK's COVID-19 alert level has been moved from level three to level four, meaning transmission of the virus is high or rising exponentially.

The chief medical officers of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland recommended upgrading the measure to the second-highest level due to a "rapidly" rising number of cases.

The COVID-19 alert level had previously been at four during the peak of the pandemic earlier this year, before being moved down to three in the middle of June following a steady decrease in the number of coronavirus infections.

 

[margarita25]

CDC abruptly reverts to previous language about how coronavirus is transmitted, says it 'was posted in error' - CNN

 

[RANCH]

Coronavirus pandemic likely 'could have been prevented' if China, WHO acted differently, report says

“It is beyond doubt that the Chinese Communist Party actively engaged in a cover-up designed to obfuscate data, hide relevant public health information, and suppress doctors and journalists who attempted to warn the world,” it said, according to the New York Post.

The document also accuses WHO of ignoring warnings from Taiwan and Hong Kong about the risk of human-to-human transmission and then falsely claiming for weeks that Chinese researchers found “no evidence” of that happening, the New York Post reported.

Coronavirus pandemic likely 'could have been prevented' if China, WHO acted differently, report says

 

[HongKongPhooey]

By "critical," they are probably looking at this projection:

UK Coronavirus cases may reach 50,000 per day

In the first phase of CoVid in UK, it was mostly the big cities. Now, it is seeded throughout many much smaller towns. There are still issues with CoVid in care homes.

50,000 per day is a scary number - I think the government is trying to get people to obey the new mandates (after a weekend of unmasked crowds celebrating their freedom to be out and in contact with CoVid).

Personally, I think 50,000 is a high estimate based on current numbers. I hope people will begin modifying their behavior as total cases go up (getting CoVid is a serious matter for about 20% of people who do not die from it). And it can be a serious issue in employment and family life for the remainder.

UK had only about 4000-4400 new cases for each of the past two days. But apparently, R-naught is high enough for that projection to be made. It's mind-boggling to think that some British medical scientists think it can get that high. Is it because indoor weather is about to begin?

Anyway, the projection above says 200 deaths per day by mid-November for UK.

We watched the briefing on BBC1 this morning with knots in our stomachs.

I cant open your link unfortunately, but what Sir Patrick and Chris Witty presented was that cases will double every seven days or so at the rate it is going. That's how they arrived at the estimated figure.

It's fairly obvious to me that the purpose of the briefing was to make us more accepting of whatever measures they will announce after tomorrow's emergency Cobra meeting.

I'm frustrated. They allowed people to go on holiday to Europe all summer long. Pubs opened. People celebrated as if it was over. Then schools returned and Unis went back. What could go wrong?

Meanwhile, one of my colleagues who was ill the same time as I was has had a positive antibody test confirmed. He was invited to take part in a trial programme.

 

[Deleted member 158085]

CDC abruptly reverts to previous language about how coronavirus is transmitted, says it 'was posted in error' - CNN

I just saw this. I'm so frustrated with the CDC.

 

[MsArk]

DBM...

CDC abruptly reverts to previous language about how coronavirus is transmitted, says it 'was posted in error' - CNN

 

[musicaljoke]

I just saw this. I'm so frustrated with the CDC.

Did you get word of this? I'm so ashamed that a Canadian was involved in the CDC rewrites.

McMaster professor embroiled in White House controversy over reports he attempted to muzzle scientists


The CDC issues Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Reports that inform doctors about how the pandemic is progressing. These publications are written by apolitical researchers. But after Mr. Caputo joined HHS, his office began demanding the ability to make changes to the documents.

[...]

Dr. Alexander also took umbrage with a CDC report about coronavirus’s threat to pregnant women.

In e-mails to the National Institutes of Health, Dr. Alexander also tried to give orders on what Dr. Anthony Fauci, the U.S.'s top infectious diseases expert, would say publicly. In these messages, Dr. Alexander said he “vehemently” disagreed with Dr. Fauci on widespread testing for university students, and asked that he tell the public masks for schoolchildren are not necessary, Politico reported. Dr. Alexander claimed “there is no data, none, zero, across the entire world” that showed COVID-19 transmission in children. He also ordered the NIH to stop adhering to randomized controlled trials, generally considered the best way to test new drugs.

 

[Satchie]

Our friends from Australia and New Zealand appear intent on eliminating all cases, with death prevention being the prime motivating factor. I've noticed that death rates are often brought up whenever different approaches are discussed - perhaps I'm wrong, but I always take them to be saying that one Covid death is always one too many. And Covid deaths feel like they are portrayed as somehow more "sacred" than others. It's just the impression I get whenever openings/closures are discussed. I understand that, the longer this goes on, the harder it will be for people on opposite sides to comprehend the other.

To me, the key point is that this is a highly infectious disease. ie it spreads amongst the population. Unlike cancer, car accidents, or other causes of death, the more people it infects, the more those people have contact with others, the more people it infects, and on and on.
Is that not true? Is that disputed? Is there some scientific paper that argues that it is spread by, say, a product that some people buy and other people don't? Or lifestyle, perhaps. What could be the cause of it having spread around the world in months, if it were not highly infectious?

 

[LadyL]

Oh, it wasn't paywalled for me. It opened right up with no logons or account required.
Maybe it is not paywalled outside the US.

Washington Post is always paywalled for me and I'm in Canada

 

[10ofRods]

Our friends from Australia and New Zealand appear intent on eliminating all cases, with death prevention being the prime motivating factor. I've noticed that death rates are often brought up whenever different approaches are discussed - perhaps I'm wrong, but I always take them to be saying that one Covid death is always one too many. And Covid deaths feel like they are portrayed as somehow more "sacred" than others. It's just the impression I get whenever openings/closures are discussed. I understand that, the longer this goes on, the harder it will be for people on opposite sides to comprehend the other.

Being focused on ridding one's environment of a disease threat is not, to me, the same thing as using Zero Cases as a goal.

Of the various threats of CoVid, I would certainly think that Death Prevention would be a top goal - likely priority #1 for anyone in a medical or public health field. But a desire to avoid getting a serious illness (cancer or CoVid) isn't just about prolonging life, it's also about quality of life. That's probably goal #2.

Death rates are a certain measure. We have used death rates in epidemiology for 300 years, even longer. Romans used it as a measurement of outcomes for war. In fact, most military organizations do. It's a common human behavior and you'll never be able to provide strong enough reasons to convince medical doctors or the military to start ignoring death rates. Why would we?

But, more than that, WS is about preventing and investigating bad outcomes (with death considered a bad outcome here - on the missing persons' threads there's always rejoicing and thankfulness when someone is found alive and unharmed.

To expect otherwise would be to challenge human nature.

Who in the world has portrayed CoVid deaths as more "sacred"? It seems to me to be the opposite. As a group, Americans are lukewarm about protecting people from CoVid. I can't even come to this thread without reading, at least a few times a day, that "it was mostly old people who died" or "after this burns through care homes, rates will drop." And I'm so grateful that this disease doesn't hit children and young people that hard - but I still don't want them to get it. But that doesn't mean I'm okay with old people dying alone, 5-10 years before they would have died otherwise.

I may be in a minority, though. It's too bad it has become about "sides." It really has changed my view of about half the people around me. Not in a good way.

 

[MrX]

Google analytics disagrees with you - Arizonans *did* change their behavior. And so did tourists. Go look at the number of canceled trips reported on TripAdvisor for April-August for Arizona (especially Northern Arizona).

Plus, people in the world who are not Arizonans changed their behavior (by not flying in the same numbers through Sky Harbor). All of this helped.

Now, people are moving around more and travel is up - and you've got a little spike going on. I'd keep an eye on it.

Arizona still has almost 175,000 active cases and analysis of travel and of internal mobility shows people are still staying home more than usual.

So people have changed their behavior - sometimes it doesn't take much. Live cameras and recent city walks from a handful of Arizona cities and towns show that people are in fact wearing masks (not all of them, but at least half of them).

Therefore, you have only 175,000 people currently shedding CoVid.

Obviously behavior, in general, changed, as it has changed everywhere. Taking Covid reactions and restrictions, as a whole, we were on the "lax" end of the spectrum - as shown by the vitriol in the press during the June/July spike. Fear of a "second wave," over the Winter, is fueled by the idea that weather will keep people inside, where the virus will spread. Our numbers showed the opposite - the more the weather kept people inside, the more our metrics dropped. Our recent "spike," has been explained by new antigen tests causing old cases to be reclassified. 764 of 1281 cases reported one day, last week, were the result of this historical adjustment.