Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #79

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10ofRods said:
Being focused on ridding one's environment of a disease threat is not, to me, the same thing as using Zero Cases as a goal.

Of the various threats of CoVid, I would certainly think that Death Prevention would be a top goal - likely priority #1 for anyone in a medical or public health field. But a desire to avoid getting a serious illness (cancer or CoVid) isn't just about prolonging life, it's also about quality of life. That's probably goal #2.

Death rates are a certain measure. We have used death rates in epidemiology for 300 years, even longer. Romans used it as a measurement of outcomes for war. In fact, most military organizations do. It's a common human behavior and you'll never be able to provide strong enough reasons to convince medical doctors or the military to start ignoring death rates. Why would we?

But, more than that, WS is about preventing and investigating bad outcomes (with death considered a bad outcome here - on the missing persons' threads there's always rejoicing and thankfulness when someone is found alive and unharmed.

To expect otherwise would be to challenge human nature.

Who in the world has portrayed CoVid deaths as more "sacred"? It seems to me to be the opposite. As a group, Americans are lukewarm about protecting people from CoVid. I can't even come to this thread without reading, at least a few times a day, that "it was mostly old people who died" or "after this burns through care homes, rates will drop." And I'm so grateful that this disease doesn't hit children and young people that hard - but I still don't want them to get it. But that doesn't mean I'm okay with old people dying alone, 5-10 years before they would have died otherwise.

I may be in a minority, though. It's too bad it has become about "sides." It really has changed my view of about half the people around me. Not in a good way.
Click to expand...

I haven’t seen anyone say it's acceptable that "old people have died " or about it being okay to burn through long term care homes. What I've seen is poster after poster concerned these people have not been adequately shielded. I think we perceive things through our own filters. My own state has a ridiculous percentage of elderly deaths. I've said time and time again, we can do better. We can take sides or not take sides, really, IMO. I personally can't control others, but I can control my own reactions. Jmo
 
MrX said:
Our friends from Australia and New Zealand appear intent on eliminating all cases, with death prevention being the prime motivating factor. I've noticed that death rates are often brought up whenever different approaches are discussed - perhaps I'm wrong, but I always take them to be saying that one Covid death is always one too many. And Covid deaths feel like they are portrayed as somehow more "sacred" than others. It's just the impression I get whenever openings/closures are discussed. I understand that, the longer this goes on, the harder it will be for people on opposite sides to comprehend the other.
Click to expand...

I have mentioned at least several times that elimination is not Australia's goal. It is unrealistic.
While we enjoy local elimination where possible, suppression has always been our goal.
In other words, keeping the virus suppressed, keeping the case count as low as we can, minimising the risk of further deaths.

Here is an Aussie federal govt health dept report, just so this can be made clear:



We have termed this “aggressive suppression”, where we take whatever measures are necessary, including the difficult decisions to reintroduce restrictions and close borders, to shut down community transmission where it occurs.

However, true elimination is really only a realistic strategy when you have a vaccine. And we do not yet have a vaccine for COVID-19.

We are not in a position in Australia to achieve elimination where global transmission is increasing.

The risk elimination creates is a false sense of security that may diminish the community engagement with widespread testing and lead to a downsizing of the enhanced public health response, based on an assumption “we have got rid of the virus once and for all in our part of the world”.

In Australia, we will continue to strive for local elimination wherever possible. We remain one of the world’s most successful nations in the fight against COVID-19. We have achieved this, not by pursuing the false hope of elimination, but by realistic, pragmatic and proportionate action when it is most necessary.

Eliminating COVID-19 a false hope
 
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MrX said:
Obviously behavior, in general, changed, as it has changed everywhere. Taking Covid reactions and restrictions, as a whole, we were on the "lax" end of the spectrum - as shown by the vitriol in the press during the June/July spike. Fear of a "second wave," over the Winter, is fueled by the idea that weather will keep people inside, where the virus will spread. Our numbers showed the opposite - the more the weather kept people inside, the more our metrics dropped. Our recent "spike," has been explained by new antigen tests causing old cases to be reclassified. 764 of 1281 cases reported one day, last week, were the result of this historical adjustment.
Click to expand...

Exactly. The behavior changed. I would assume that while people stayed indoors, they weren't crowding into venues with people they didn't know. Work-from-home got a boost (and there are 6000 jobs listed on one site - working from home for Arizona). So AZ did modify its behavior.

I think it's possible that some places needed to shut down more intensely due to further spread of CoVid. UK is now seeing a surge because, although their rates were low when they reopened, naturally, the rates went up again.

While case rates may be due to mis-reporting/classification, do you think the deaths are also wrongly reported? Because, while week of September 8 was lower than the past couple of months, death rates are moving back up again - something to watch.

I can see that many places did have retail closed for part of this pandemic (I watch live webcams in Arizona - we've cancelled two vacations to Arizona in six months - we were optimistic about our October visit, but cases are now on the rise where we were going - and 176,000 active cases is the same as here in California, per capita - and we don't do much outside of the house here).

Of course, I'm older - I'm officially in the vulnerable population, so I'm pretty cautious. Same is true for all of my friends and family in AZ. Because the young people in our family do worry about us older people, they too are wearing masks and social distancing (staying home a lot, I'd say).
 
Scotland faces tighter restrictions 'within days'

Additional lockdown restrictions will "almost certainly" be put in place in Scotland in the next couple of days, Nicola Sturgeon has said.

Speaking at her daily briefing, the first minister said "fast and urgent action" was needed to tackle the growth of the virus.

Ms Sturgeon indicated that a package of new restrictions would be announced within the next 48 hours.
 
MrX said:
Obviously behavior, in general, changed, as it has changed everywhere. Taking Covid reactions and restrictions, as a whole, we were on the "lax" end of the spectrum - as shown by the vitriol in the press during the June/July spike. Fear of a "second wave," over the Winter, is fueled by the idea that weather will keep people inside, where the virus will spread. Our numbers showed the opposite - the more the weather kept people inside, the more our metrics dropped. Our recent "spike," has been explained by new antigen tests causing old cases to be reclassified. 764 of 1281 cases reported one day, last week, were the result of this historical adjustment.
Click to expand...
The Health Metrics Institute at University of Washington disagrees: they predict Arizona infections have just begun to rise and will not stop, reaching 25,000 infections per day in December, up to 45,000 at the end of December if a laissez-faire attitude continues.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Time will tell, I guess.
 
SouthAussie said:
I have mentioned at least several times that elimination is not Australia's goal. It is unrealistic.
While we enjoy local elimination where possible, suppression has always been our goal.

Here is an Aussie federal govt health dept report, just so this can be made clear:



We have termed this “aggressive suppression”, where we take whatever measures are necessary, including the difficult decisions to reintroduce restrictions and close borders, to shut down community transmission where it occurs.

However, true elimination is really only a realistic strategy when you have a vaccine. And we do not yet have a vaccine for COVID-19.

We are not in a position in Australia to achieve elimination where global transmission is increasing.

The risk elimination creates is a false sense of security that may diminish the community engagement with widespread testing and lead to a downsizing of the enhanced public health response, based on an assumption “we have got rid of the virus once and for all in our part of the world”.

In Australia, we will continue to strive for local elimination wherever possible. We remain one of the world’s most successful nations in the fight against COVID-19. We have achieved this, not by pursuing the false hope of elimination, but by realistic, pragmatic and proportionate action when it is most necessary.

Eliminating COVID-19 a false hope
Click to expand...

If we ever got rates in California as low as yours, you can bet your bottom dollar that we'd go for complete elimination. Unfortunately, we can't shut all our airports (well, we probably could, but it would likely take civil disobedience or an act of the California legislators - and the consequences would not be great for CA or for the rest of the US, we're a major transit hub for many nations).

California could survive without the other 49 (we are energy independent, more or less, we'd have to endure rolling black-outs, but probably only every 2 weeks; we make our own gasoline; we have our docks and can import many things; we are food independent; we have increasing manufacturing; we have some businesses that are still paying lots of taxes), but if we truly closed our land borders in California, other states would suffer. Our Governor is sympathetic to those other states and we love him for his humanity, but he gets a lot of criticism for not being willing to close California's borders to interstate trucking (a major vector of CoVid here).

We're almost an island, here in California (with the great Mojave and the Sierra Nevada in between us and the rest of the nation - except for Oregon). If we were a continent, you can bet that the vast majority of us would want to eradicate CoVid if it looked possible - as it does for Australia and New Zealand (and Hawaii - and in theory, the British Isles, the Azores, and many other island nations or chains).

Satchie said:
The Health Metrics Institute at University of Washington disagrees: they predict Arizona infections have just begun to rise and will not stop, reaching 25,000 infections per day in December, up to 45,000 at the end of December if a laissez-faire attitude continues.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Time will tell, I guess.
Click to expand...

Thank you for posting that. They are one of a few research institutes that say this - and no one is saying any different so far. Arizona has had an issue with testing (and has an issue with getting people who have been exposed to go get tested - ergo, lots of asymptomatic carriers).

One of Arizona's main issues is that test results aren't coming back in time to merit going to get tested (if one is asymptomatic). CDC advice has changed many times (!) and has not sent a consistent message that if you think you've been exposed or know you've been exposed, you should self-quarantine.

California isn't exactly speedy, although now we have this thing where people are buying their own tests (business, individuals, etc) and getting speedy results.

Are these fast, cheap coronavirus tests the game-changer everyone is waiting for? - CNN

I know someone who went to an event two days ago, where everyone got a 15 minute test, waited in their cars for results and only went inside if negative. It cost about $60 per person. The host paid for it.
 
10ofRods said:
If we ever got rates in California as low as yours, you can bet your bottom dollar that we'd go for complete elimination. Unfortunately, we can't shut all our airports (well, we probably could, but it would likely take civil disobedience or an act of the California legislators - and the consequences would not be great for CA or for the rest of the US, we're a major transit hub for many nations).

California could survive without the other 49 (we are energy independent, more or less, we'd have to endure rolling black-outs, but probably only every 2 weeks; we make our own gasoline; we have our docks and can import many things; we are food independent; we have increasing manufacturing; we have some businesses that are still paying lots of taxes), but if we truly closed our land borders in California, other states would suffer. Our Governor is sympathetic to those other states and we love him for his humanity, but he gets a lot of criticism for not being willing to close California's borders to interstate trucking (a major vector of CoVid here).

We're almost an island, here in California (with the great Mojave and the Sierra Nevada in between us and the rest of the nation - except for Oregon). If we were a continent, you can bet that the vast majority of us would want to eradicate CoVid if it looked possible - as it does for Australia and New Zealand (and Hawaii - and in theory, the British Isles, the Azores, and many other island nations or chains).
Click to expand...

I think there may be a misconception about what Australian 'closed state borders' means.

There is lots of economic trade between our states, and that continues and always has. Food, fuel, new cars, clothing, postal delivery, and all types of other supplies come in and out every day.
The semi trailers wait for clearance at the state borders then come on through.
The ships and planes wait at the ports for clearance, then are unloaded.


xx2.JPG
https://7news.com.au/business/sa-set-to-move-on-some-border-measures-c-1093191


ETA: My niece's partner is a highway police officer. He has been in Renmark, one of our state border monitoring points, for weeks and weeks. They check the incomers for validity, and for travel exemptions, turn back those who do not have it, allow those through who do have it.
It is really no different from check points between countries that share a border.
 
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10ofRods said:
Arizona still has almost 175,000 active cases...
Click to expand...

May I ask where that number is from? AZ has reported approximately 204K total cases since the beginning of March.

Satchie said:
The Health Metrics Institute at University of Washington disagrees: they predict Arizona infections have just begun to rise and will not stop, reaching 25,000 infections per day in December, up to 45,000 at the end of December if a laissez-faire attitude continues.

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Time will tell, I guess.
Click to expand...

I have no idea where the numbers on that site are from, but they are wildly inaccurate. They show over 19.5K cases per day in early July, when the highest daily total was 5500 on July 29.

AZDHS is the best source for AZ data, as the "reported" data is graphed to the day the event occurred, which is not the case with sites that report data nationally. I am honestly mystified and concerned that there is no interest in understanding what happened here. Our Governor, Heath Director and local media are too willing to think everything turned around due to the temporary closure of gyms. Our Rt was in decline prior to the second round of closures, and improvement was reflected in the metrics before the closures had a chance to take effect. Sorry for beating a dead horse, but it's hard reconcile stories like the Maine wedding, with the unmasked gatherings I've seen since May 11.
 
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MrX said:
May I ask where that number is from? AZ has reported approximately 204K total cases since the beginning of March.



I have no idea where the numbers on that site are from, but they are wildly inaccurate. They show over 19.5K cases per day in early July, when the highest daily total was 5500 on July 29.

AZDHS is the best source for AZ data, as the "reported" data is graphed to the day the event occurred, which is not the case with sites that report data nationally. I am honestly mystified and concerned that there is no interest in understanding what happened here. Our Governor, Heath Director and local media are too willing to think everything turned around due to the temporary closure of gyms. Our Rt was in decline prior to the second round of closures, and improvement was reflected in the metrics before the closures had a chance to take effect. Sorry for beating a dead horse, but it's hard reconcile stories like the Maine wedding, with with the unmasked gatherings I've seen since May 11.
Click to expand...
Do you assume that every single infection is caught through testing?
Actual Covid-19 case count could be 6 to 24 times higher, per CDC study

IHME figures imply a ratio of 10 actual infections for every confirmed infection for Arizona. That would be based on data such as death rates, demographics, testing strategy and number of tests, etc.
 
MrX said:
May I ask where that number is from? AZ has reported approximately 204K total cases since the beginning of March.
Click to expand...

Worldometer is showing 174,938 active cases in AZ, as of now.
214,251 total cases, since the pandemic began.

It is also showing a gradual current climb in cases, over a 7-day rolling average.

xx2.JPG

United States Coronavirus: 7,043,176 Cases and 204,445 Deaths - Worldometer


"Worldometer collects its statistics and data from the most reputable national and international organizations, including the United Nations, the World Health Organization, the Food and Agriculture Organization, OECD and others."
Worldometer - Sources
 
SouthAussie said:
Worldometer is showing 174,938 active cases in AZ, as of now.
214,251 total cases, since the pandemic began.

It is also showing a gradual current climb in cases, over a 7-day rolling average.

View attachment 264586

United States Coronavirus: 7,043,176 Cases and 204,445 Deaths - Worldometer


"Worldometer collects its statistics and data from the most reputable national and international organizations, including the United Nations, the World Health Organization, the Food and Agriculture Organization, OECD and others."
Worldometer - Sources
Click to expand...

Which tells us a lot. Out of all the reported (tested) cases, the vast majority were recent.
 
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