Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #88

[MimosaMornings]

James River Church's busy weekend Christmas services spark outrage

 

[10ofRods]

FWIW, if the exposure was on Thanksgiving Day and she’s not developed symptoms at this point, it’s highly unlikely she’s infected. She would be allowed to return to work/school under current guidelines here. Personally, I would want to test prior to resuming normal activity, but that’s me.

So...you don't allow for the possibility that a person can be completely asymptomatic and still spreading COVID?

We're 12 days out from Thanksgiving. Without symptoms, a person is likely contagious from day 3 or 4 to about 14 days out from that (give or take). So about 18 days. If that person is in fact shedding active COVID, no one would know - and the outside time for that to happen is longer than 18 days from acquisition.

Acquisition occurs on Day 1, contagion is established on Day 2, 3, 4 or 5 (usually), then the person is contagious for about 14 days (symptoms or n0t). No good data on whether the asymptomatic shed longer, but good data that says that once a person develops moderate symptoms (low fever, cough, fatigue, loss of smell, etc)...they become less contagious because now their body is engaged in the fight. Absolutely no way to know how long the asymptomatic are shedding - but in general, just as long as anyone else.

I would definitely want a test to return her to a social setting (or another few days of no symptoms.) I tend to be very cautious in recommending a course of action that could make this pandemic continue.

 

[LadyL]

There's been such a surge of cases that a Nevada hospital is treating patients in its parking garage - CNN

 

[24Roses]

Iowa numbers today: As of 10:00-11:00 a.m., we had 1,393 new confirmed cases for a total of 246,237 confirmed cases of which 168,055 are recovering (+7,220). 202 more were reported to have passed away (due to new way of calculating deaths) for a total of 2,919. 111 were hospitalized in the last 24 hrs. for a total of 900 (+2). According to KWWL, there are 75,263 active positive cases with 24 hr. positivity rate of 38.4%. Dec. 8: 1,393 new cases, IDPH uses new methodology for deaths
access Daily case totals updated at 11:00 a.m. ( Total who passed listed as 2,724)
Iowa Coronavirus Information
Total who passed listed as 2,919 currently (unchanged from 11:00 a.m. today)
* On a side note, since the change in calculating deaths was implemented numbers from various counties are all over the place and listed as differently on the 2 above parts of the site. My county either lost 4 deaths or stayed the same. Another neigboring county either gained 13 deaths or stayed the same, etc. It is all very confusing.

 

[weepingangel]

Totally imo and moo no link but I’ve heard from several medical folks that inconclusive pretty much always means positive.

They just pulled poor Dez Bryant(RAVENS) off the field:


@jonmachota
According to @JayGlazer
Dez Bryant had an inconclusive COVID-19 test this morning and thought he could play tonight. When he was warming up, the doctors pulled him because the test was inconclusive. They retested him at the stadium. That test came back positive. He was sent home.

 

[nightowl1975]

So...you don't allow for the possibility that a person can be completely asymptomatic and still spreading COVID?

We're 12 days out from Thanksgiving. Without symptoms, a person is likely contagious from day 3 or 4 to about 14 days out from that (give or take). So about 18 days. If that person is in fact shedding active COVID, no one would know - and the outside time for that to happen is longer than 18 days from acquisition.

Acquisition occurs on Day 1, contagion is established on Day 2, 3, 4 or 5 (usually), then the person is contagious for about 14 days (symptoms or n0t). No good data on whether the asymptomatic shed longer, but good data that says that once a person develops moderate symptoms (low fever, cough, fatigue, loss of smell, etc)...they become less contagious because now their body is engaged in the fight. Absolutely no way to know how long the asymptomatic are shedding - but in general, just as long as anyone else.

I would definitely want a test to return her to a social setting (or another few days of no symptoms.) I tend to be very cautious in recommending a course of action that could make this pandemic continue.

You’ll note I didn’t say I necessarily agreed with the current guidelines used. I do wish people in general would be more, not less, cautious. I also acknowledge that if we tend towards what the average person considers “extreme”, we may end up with even LESS cooperation than if we settled for recommendations that are more moderate. I absolutely believe this logic played a part in the updated CDC guidelines. Sure, there was some degree of science behind it too, but I also personally believe human psychology played a part in the change.

 

[nightowl1975]

Totally imo and moo no link but I’ve heard from several medical folks that inconclusive pretty much always means positive.

Interesting. IME, we’ve never seen an inconclusive come back positive (not for rapid or PCR tests). And we test close to 200 people one to two times per week, minimum, so we’ve seen our fair share of inconclusive results.

That said, nobody with an inconclusive test goes back to seeing patients without a negative rapid test. Just in case...

 

[mickey2942]

FORCED SHOTS: Can Nevada employers require workers to get COVID-19 vaccines?

And so it starts...

 

[acutename]

Oxford-AstraZeneca has published its final-stage clinical trial data ... first covid vaccine maker to do so.


Oxford University and AstraZeneca on Tuesday became the first Covid-19 vaccine makers to publish final-stage clinical trial data in a scientific journal, clearing a key hurdle in the global race to produce safe and effective drugs for the coronavirus.
The study, published in the respected Lancet medical journal, confirmed that the vaccine works in an average of 70 percent of cases.
Coronavirus Australia: State ends 120 days virus-free streak


Here is the trial data, for those who are interested ....
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32623-4/fulltext

they are saying 70% effective for this.... why would I want a 70% effective vaccine if I could have one that is 90% effective? ...or would I just be offered whatever is available and have go with that? (asks a person who had zostavax and shingrix.... grrr)

 

[acutename]

no she doesn't work in healthcare
she's supposedly high-risk but I think she's raising her own risks by even going out to get the test

the drive through tests seem socially distanced but the pictures of people standing in lines.... look dicey to me

 

[SouthAussie]

FORCED SHOTS: Can Nevada employers require workers to get COVID-19 vaccines?

And so it starts...

I see in your link, there is a link to a survey taken in 19 countries, published 20 October.

In the US, 75.42% of the survey respondents said they would have a covid vaccine if proven safe and effective.
In Canada, 68.74% said they would.
In the UK, 71.48% said they would.
In Italy, 79.79 said they would.
In Russia, 54.85% said they would.

Survey Results

A global survey of potential acceptance of a COVID-19 vaccine

 

[SouthAussie]

they are saying 70% effective for this.... why would I want a 70% effective vaccine if I could have one that is 90% effective? ...or would I just be offered whatever is available and have go with that? (asks a person who had zostavax and shingrix.... grrr)

To date, the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine is the only one that does not require freezer, or extreme freezer, storage.


"This study found that the vaccine has to have an efficacy of at least 70% to prevent an epidemic and of at least 80% to largely extinguish an epidemic without any other measures (e.g., social distancing)."
Vaccine Efficacy Needed for a COVID-19 Coronavirus Vaccine to Prevent or Stop an Epidemic as the Sole Intervention


"In a study published July 15 in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine .... We found that a coronavirus vaccine’s effectiveness may have to be higher than 70% or even 80% before Americans can safely stop relying on social distancing. By comparison, the measles vaccine has an efficacy of 95%-98%, and the flu vaccine is 20%-60%.

That doesn’t mean a vaccine that offers less protection would be useless, but it would mean social distancing in some form may still be necessary."
How effective does a COVID-19 coronavirus vaccine need to be to stop the pandemic? A new study has answers

 

[SouthAussie]

Totally imo and moo no link but I’ve heard from several medical folks that inconclusive pretty much always means positive.

Yes, I have read similar. Usually an indication of low viral load.


The UW SARS-CoV-2 Real-time RT-PCR assay targets two distinct gene regions (see SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) Qualitative PCR [NCVQLT] for details). When one of the two targets, but not both, is present above the threshold for positivity, the test is reported as “inconclusive”. This is usually seen with low amounts of viral DNA. In practice, “inconclusive” results should be treated as presumptive positive COVID cases with a low viral load present.

Frequently Asked Questions About COVID-19 Testing for Providers & Clients.

 

[acutename]

Huh. and here I am worried about wearing a mask in my home. These people. All of them from White House Christmas parties on down. I’ll refrain from further comment.

they do get tested every day..... unlike you... which is not a guarantee they will not get COVID or infect anyone else (obviously!) but they do have an "early warning system" not available to most of us

 

[acutename]

I can't imagine 74% of New Jersey residents don't believe in Covid--after all--the state is pretty much a Democratic stronghold. I'm guessing there's another reason so many are not cooperating with contact tracing -- and I would hazard a guess it has to do with fines or other punishments. But, that's only my opinion. I really have no clue.

IMHO: there are people who lost jobs or businesses earlier in the year and they are just angry. also, some of the people are not going to say where they were if it involved anything illegal- drugs, sex, after hours club activity- no drinks in NJ after 10 pm. and now youth hockey which was found to be a spreader activity. some contract tracers were specifically hired to deal with non-English speaking people so possibly also spread among people who are not in the US legally. they will not want to share information, IMHO. beyond that, some people really do not like sharing information and some people are probably still traveling and having parties and they will not want to talk about it.

 

[acutename]

And looking at projections, this is going to be a daily headline for the next month until we hit the peak - perhaps mid January. MOO

ETA: ??Or, since we are ahead of the IHME projections, could it be sooner now?

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

yes- if Thanksgiving got you ill, you may not be at that Christmas party.... which is what the health PSAs told us in sobering terms.

 

[GRT]

IMHO: there are people who lost jobs or businesses earlier in the year and they are just angry. also, some of the people are not going to say where they were if it involved anything illegal- drugs, sex, after hours club activity- no drinks in NJ after 10 pm. and now youth hockey which was found to be a spreader activity. some contract tracers were specifically hired to deal with non-English speaking people so possibly also spread among people who are not in the US legally. they will not want to share information, IMHO. beyond that, some people really do not like sharing information and some people are probably still traveling and having parties and they will not want to talk about it.

That makes a lot of sense and you're probably right -- it's probably a combination of a number of things. Maybe the contact tracers could stand to brush up on their approach a bit--to put the people they contact at ease.

I'm guessing a contact tracer contacts an infected person and requests information about the people they've been in contact with. If there are any sorts of fines or punishments, I could see the infected person not complying because he/she didn't want to get a friend in trouble. That's a virtue instilled in most of us from childhood--not to tattle--not to get someone in trouble.

But, I'm only guessing that people are getting in trouble--I may be way off. I get where a small percentage of people might be undermining the contact tracers, but 74% seems huge. I do hope, however, that those who have been contacted take it upon themselves to notify their friends personally so those friends can be on the watch for symptoms and take extra precautions.

 

[GRT]

I do hope the vaccine is well tolerated in the elderly.

"One of the things we want to make sure people understand is that they should not be unnecessarily alarmed if there are reports, once we start vaccinating, of someone or multiple people dying within a day or two of their vaccination who are residents of a long-term care facility. That would be something we would expect, as a normal occurrence, because people die frequently in nursing homes."

Why vaccinate our most frail? Odd vote out shows the dilemma - CNN

 

[GRT]

FORCED SHOTS: Can Nevada employers require workers to get COVID-19 vaccines?

And so it starts...

It will be interesting to see which employers take this position and whether the requirement will hold up in court.

 

[GRT]

You’ll note I didn’t say I necessarily agreed with the current guidelines used. I do wish people in general would be more, not less, cautious. I also acknowledge that if we tend towards what the average person considers “extreme”, we may end up with even LESS cooperation than if we settled for recommendations that are more moderate. I absolutely believe this logic played a part in the updated CDC guidelines. Sure, there was some degree of science behind it too, but I also personally believe human psychology played a part in the change.

I think you're right. Human psychology plays a huge role in how people react to "recommendations." In my experience, more people will comply if they're shown why the suggestions are important rather than handing down rules that force them to comply. The latter always seems to gin-up resistance no matter who is on the receiving end.