Based on what we have so far, it is my contention that the evidence against premeditation of a fake kidnap plot is much stronger than the evidence that Casey may have tried to set a fake kidnap plot up in advance of Caylee's disappearance and murder. My belief is that the fight between Cindy and Casey on June 15 is the inciting incident which led to Casey killing Caylee in a fit of rage against her mother. Based on this, I believe there is a lack of premeditation, therefore, I believe this to be a Manslaughter case rather than Murder 1.
I actually agree with you on the scenario, but not the legal result. Start with a background of dysfunctional family relationships and problem solving. Maybe KC was even capable of being diagnosed as a sociopath, I don't know. She was certainly manipulative and an habitual liar. There was a pattern of denial; ie of KC's pregnancy. Then, the parents "supported" KC in having and keeping a baby that at first KC wouldn't even acknowledge the pregnancy! KC faked a job so she could have leisure time alone or hauled Caylee with her with no particular place to go. KC had probably exclusive use of her mother's Pontiac. She was already stealing money from family and friends. KC's changed her current boyfriend as often as her hair style. Cindy wanted KC to "settle down" and take care of Caylee. Cindy was contemplating getting custody (proof that Cindy didn't think KC was the "Mother of the Year.") The tension was very strong and KC resented her parents. I think KC had explored the idea of killing her parents and/or her daughter to gain her personal and economic freedom, but had not decided to act on that thought; hence the searches and comments to Amy about the residence. I think KC has an explosive temper. I think Cindy had been building up to confront KC. Cindy had her 50th birthday and wanted to think about retirement. Cindy had been seeing a therapist. The therapist had given Cindy emotional and moral support to start the custody challenge showdown. From that point, a high pitched "intervention" was inevitable.
What triggered the crises was Cindy found out that KC was stealing from her grandparents retirement account meant solely for the nursing home for Cindy's father. These are legally restricted funds and I'd bet not even a creditor could reach them. The grandparents may have been put in a precarious situation; another situation of KC having callous disregard for the needs of weaker and dependent family members of Cindy's. KC had left the A home the morning of June 15th at the same time Cindy left with Caylee to go to the grandfather's nursing home to honor Father's Day. KC did nothing to honor Father's Day. When Cindy returned to the A home, after leaving her mother's house, Cindy demanded that KC leave AL's apartment and come home. The confrontation/intervention was going to happen right now! KC took her sweet time getting there. The fight was so loud and explosive that the neighbors had a memory of it a month later.
I believe, that night, KC killed Caylee. However, just being in a screaming rage at your mother does not automatically eliminate premeditation. Premeditation can be as short as the act of intending to apply duct tape over a mouth and nose of a hysterical two year old and then doing it. There doesn't have to be any more planning than that. It is just the amount of intent that is required to decide to shut the kid up by using duct tape, getting the tape, tearing off several strips and applying it, knowing the toddler is no longer able to breathe. That is premeditated murder. It doesn't matter how angry. IF that happened that way, Caylee would have had convulsive movements before she died. She may have turned blue. KC probably saw all of that.
Other modes of death would also have the same legal result. IF KC applied chloroform to get Caylee to unconsciousness and be quiet, that would be so extremely, grossly negligent and out of the norm for parents handling dependent children that it could indeed rise to premeditated murder. Same with drugging with other drugs. At some point, the doseage applied is certain to kill and knowing that, the parent applied the killer doseage. That too can be specific intent and it wouldn't take much planning other than the resolve to do the act. That would also satisfy the legal specific intent requirement for premeditation.
Intentionally leaving the pool ladder connected and intentionally walking away or deliberately not checking on Caylee knowing she was inevitably going to climb the ladder and drown would also be enough for specific intent. The means are more indirect, but giving access to the pool would be sufficient for specific intent to support premeditation.
Locking Caylee in a hot car or trunk knowing she was there and it would kill her would also be enough for the specific intent to support meditation. Using what other people have experienced as totally accidental by an otherwise loving and caring parent can be the method that is intentionally used to kill by somebody like KC when her history is to ignore the well being of her child to the point that Cindy is on the verge of starting a legal fight for custody to the exclusion of KC.
All of these scenarious could indeed be legal premeditation. Some of them could also support a lesser included charge like murder in the second degree, voluntary manslaughter, involuntary manslaughter or felony murder. The jury will have to choose, based on facts and evidence admitted at the trial. I don't envy them that task.
Oh, I agree that the homicide was done first and then the kidnapping story made up as a cover up.