Jax49
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Hurricane Florence - September 2018
- Thread starter MelmothTheLost
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CARIIS
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Spaghetti model of Florence:
Hurricane Florence could pose major threat to East Coast next week - CNN
Ha
As an American hate to say this but - statistically the EURO Model has proven to do the best job out of the spaghetti modeling
MelmothTheLost
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From memory of last year, I think the European models seem to have been more accurate on the track and the US ones on intensity.
CARIIS
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No, but I wish he would come on -- I loved his posts
MelmothTheLost
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MelmothTheLost
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Not sure. Obviously the closer things get to landfall the less variation in forecast is to be expected. We need Henry.
CARIIS
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Group of simulations from American (blue) and European (red) computer models from Wednesday night (previous model run) and Thursday (most recent model run). Each color strand represents a different model simulation with slight tweaks to initial conditions. Note that the strands are clustered together where the forecast track is most confident, but they diverge where the course of the storm is less certain. The thick bold red line is the average of all of the European model simulations, while the blue is the average of all the American model simulations. The thinner bold lines are the main or operational simulations from each model. (StormVistaWxModels.com)
Florence weakens to tropical storm but forecast to regain strength and draw close to East Coast
Hi Jersey!
Will you keep posting these -- the getting the diff between EURO and american is so hard when they are not separated
this is awesome
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Looks like we will see a continuous wave of storms in the Atlantic:
Disturbance No. 1
A storm system located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands near Africa now has an 80 percent chance of becoming Helene in the next 48 hours, and a 90 percent chance in the next five days, the hurricane center said Thursday.
Tropical Wave
Right behind Disturbance 1 near Africa is a tropical wave that has a 50 percent chance of becoming a storm named Issac in the next 48 hours and an 80 percent chance in the next five days, forecasters said.
Hurricane Florence weakens for now; chances increase for 2 other tropical systems
Disturbance No. 1
A storm system located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands near Africa now has an 80 percent chance of becoming Helene in the next 48 hours, and a 90 percent chance in the next five days, the hurricane center said Thursday.
Tropical Wave
Right behind Disturbance 1 near Africa is a tropical wave that has a 50 percent chance of becoming a storm named Issac in the next 48 hours and an 80 percent chance in the next five days, forecasters said.
Hurricane Florence weakens for now; chances increase for 2 other tropical systems
CARIIS
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I see what could be Helene going east over the Caribbean towards .... Florida, Mexico, the Gulf?
Windy as forecasted
CARIIS
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MelmothTheLost
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Windward Islands, then south of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, possibly heading towards Jamaica is what I see.
Hatfield
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There was a guy who used to be a news weather guy and he was amazing either last year or year before and got the most incredible live footage I have ever seen. I think on Periscope app or something. He was parked near a car wash when the hurricane went right over. It was truly amazing.
There was also a shed nearby and everyone was amazed the shed held up. The car wash roof almost got tore off where he was. Scary stuff and it really showed what winds would be like in a hurricane. Totally sideways rain. So fast the rain was a blurr. Truly amazing.
There was also a shed nearby and everyone was amazed the shed held up. The car wash roof almost got tore off where he was. Scary stuff and it really showed what winds would be like in a hurricane. Totally sideways rain. So fast the rain was a blurr. Truly amazing.
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haha. I remember him. Jeff Piotrowski? He was the guy riding around Marco Island during Irma, hiding behind brick structures when the winds were at their strongest.
Jeff Piotrowski @Jeff_Piotrowski
There were a couple of guys on Periscope and Facebook too. The guys on the sailboat in Key West, another guy in a hotel in the Keys. Love social media for this!
MelmothTheLost
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Which was the chap providing a live feed from a petrol station and local store in the Keys?
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Oh yea, the guy on Marathon from the gas station!! lol.
I remember the guys at the bar in Key West, watching the one sleeping on the stage. lol.
I recall watching a lot of Levi Cowan's weather updates on youtube: Levi Cowan
CARIIS
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what winds would be like in a hurricane.
wind wise Irma was really bad
it sounds like a train noise wise but also like a airplane coming closer if that makes sense...but there is a timeframe before it get there --which is stressful
not sure if I am describing this correctly!!
you can tell and hear that another huge swish of winds is coming ....and then it like the airplane is getting closer and closer and then its there ( like the plane flying right over)..
Its also like ( in terms of the plane) each time you dont know how forceful (loud) the next swish through is gonna be .
then when a really intense was comes you then start to hear the next one - its like is this next one gonna be even stronger
When it is right over you you get like vibrations again if that makes sense??
And then it goes away just like a plane after it passes directly over you
and goes and comes
over and over and over
it is exhausting cause ya don't know if a window is gonna blow out or whatever
Jax49
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Tropical Storm Florence Increasingly Likely to Strike the East Coast Next Week as a Strong Hurricane | The Weather Channel
At a Glance
At a Glance
- Florence is now reintensifying, and will become a hurricane this weekend.
- Florence will generate swells that will begin to affect the U.S. East Coast this weekend.
- It expected to become a formidably strong hurricane by Monday night or Tuesday.
- While the exact path is still uncertain, a strike on the U.S. East Coast is increasingly likely.
- This may happen as soon as Thursday.
- Those near the East Coast should monitor closely and firm up their hurricane plans.