Hurricane Florence - September 2018

[CARIIS]

Florence is expected to be as strong as a Category 4 hurricane by the time it makes its closest approach to the United States from Wednesday to Thursday.

A Florence landfall along the U.S. East Coast is becoming more likely, with the Carolinas at greatest risk late this week.

Strengthening Florence may pose serious threat to US East Coast later this week

Cat 1 now at landfall?

that would be much better !!!!!!!

now all gotta watch how high up she goes in the cat 4 range

130- 156

 

[JerseyGirl]

South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster and other state officials will hold a media briefing at 2 p.m. to update the public on Florence’s potential threat to the state

Horry County, MB declare state of emergency as Florence regains hurricane status

 

[JerseyGirl]

11 a.m. update:

Florence, Now A Hurricane, Is One Of Many Threats To The Atlantic And Pacific

 

[MaryG12]

Wilmington, NC is in the center of Florence’s latest path. Storm will be ‘dangerous’

The latest projection is landfall in the Wilmington, North Carolina area at 2 a.m. Friday. Winds will begin hitting the Carolina coast 8 p.m. Wednesday and the middle of the two Carolinas by 8 a.m. Thursday, NOAA says.

The Cape Hatteras National Seashore began asking visitors to stay out of the ocean in anticipation of dangerous rip currents.

Ah geez, and one of my NC friends is in Elizabethtown, and the other, in Asheville. Looks like Elizabethtown will be right in the direct path of Florence, too. Asheville on the outer part?

 

[CARIIS]

SRT= STRESS REDUCTION TACTIC!

This may help folks :

advisories for Atlantic tropical cyclones are normally issued every six hours at 5:00 AM EDT, 11:00 AM EDT,5:00 PM EDT, and 11:00 PM EDT (or 4:00 AM EST,10:00 AM EST, 4:00 PM EST, and 10:00 PM EST).

or to put it another way ! basically nothing is going to change for hours in terms of changes

As landfall gets closer they might increase number of flights into the beasts

these days they can get the next advisory maybe 15 min earlier than in the old days

we are gonna have the same info in chunks of 6 hours!!

media keeps updating stories ( and now "lets get the latest advisory "- if it's 3 o'clock it is the same thing as 1105!) but the hard core data in terms of forward movement bar pressure cat etc is identical for six hour blocks

Similar with model runs --they move at what 6 14 mph!



they just do that to get clicks !!

If ya want less stress watch the news at those times above - nothing is changing-- I found it less stressful

when landfall nears and during the event it is a different story IMO

 

[SuzDuJour]

I’m in Southern Pines, NC - inland, but possibly in the path. I just booked hotel reservations about two miles away because my house is under a bunch of tall pine trees and the hotel has none around it. Luckily I have points, so it won’t cost me anything. I’m getting water, gas, banking, medications tomorrow.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

Your best bet right now is to book a hotel/motel inland that you can cancel free up to that day - make sure the area is not in a flood zone.

One thing I noticed last year looking at the traffic snarl-ups as people tried to flee Florida is that despite the very heavy traffic on the freeways some other less obvious routes seemed to be moving much more freely. So maybe have an idea of your alternative routes for getting to where you want to be. It's better to travel at 30 mph on a less direct rural road than be at a standstill on a freeway.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Florence is expected to slow, or even stall, over the Carolinas and mid-Atlantic region for at least several days after making landfall and could result is significant flash flooding, said the NWS. They also emphasized that the impacts of a hurricane can extend more than 100 miles from the storm’s center.

Prepare for ‘a strong hit’ from hurricane on South Carolina, governor urges

 

[Jax49]

5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 24.4°N 57.0°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 975 mb
Max sustained: 85 mph

 

[Jax49]

Hurricane Florence poses an extreme threat to Southeast and Mid-Atlantic

Hurricane Florence is tracking toward the East Coast with invariability rarely seen in storms several days away from landfall. While forecasters were careful to cite “high uncertainty” and “low model confidence” last week, their tone changed after watching the storm’s eventual path barely shift from what they had considered to be the worst-case scenario.

On Sunday evening, the National Hurricane Center was forecasting Florence to become a strong Category 4 just prior to making landfall somewhere on the Southeast or Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday.

bbm

 

[JerseyGirl]

Coastal Georgia, Coastal South Carolina, Coastal North Carolina:
Residents should continue preparations for a major hurricane landfall and have a plan should they be required to evacuate. Heavy surf and elevated water levels arrive by Wednesday morning, and rainfall could begin by Thursday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds could reach the coastline as early as Wednesday night. Extremely dangerous hurricane-force winds could batter coastal locations Thursday into Friday.

north central North Carolina, southwest Virginia, Washington DC, Maryland, I-95 Corridor, Pennsylvania, Northeast
The European model focuses the heaviest rainfall in north central North Carolina and southwest Virginia – up to one to two feet or more, falling between Wednesday night and Monday night. The new American model is not as wet but shows widespread amounts of 5 to 10 inches up the Interstate 95 corridor in North Carolina through Washington, D.C. and Baltimore. Florence could sit over some part of the Mid-Atlantic for several days, similar to what Harvey did last year over eastern Texas. It has the potential to dump unthinkable amounts of rain over a large area in the Mid-Atlantic and perhaps into the Northeast. Parts of the Mid-Atlantic, especially from Virginia to Pennsylvania, have seen 150 to 300 percent of their normal rainfall since May.

DelMarVa, New Jersey, New York - coastal and inland
Further north into Delmarva, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and New York, coastal and inland areas also should be preparing for significant storm effects.

Hurricane Florence poses an extreme threat to Southeast and Mid-Atlantic

5:00 p.m. Advisory:

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) | Twitter

 

[Jax49]

11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 9
Location: 24.6°N 57.7°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

 

[CARIIS]

........global models are now in very good agreement on forecasting
Florence's upper-level mass outflow being deposited to the north and
east of the hurricane, which will act to further strengthen the
blocking ridge and help to drive the hurricane northwestward toward
the southeastern U.S. coastal region

..........developed an inner-core ring of deep convection, which has insulated the eye from intrusions of dry air,


/........rapid intensification appears likely to begin soon and continue for
the next 36 hours or so due to the expected very low vertical wind
shear conditions,

////very warm beneath the hurricane.

.....increasing the size of Florence's wind field over the next few days

......... most favorable combination of the aforementioned factors will occur in
about 48 h, and that's when Florence is likely to achieve its
maximum intensity.

After 72 hours, the wind shear is expected to
increase to around 10-15 kt from the south or southwest,


there adding extra runs --radiosonde launches to collect extra data for the numerical models

...........increasing risk of two life-threatening impacts from
Florence: storm surge at the coast and freshwater flooding from a
prolonged heavy rainfall event inland

48H = 150 MPH
72H = 150 MPH

GOES-East - Sector Views: Tropical Atlantic - wide view - Band 7 - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR

 

[CARIIS]

ahhhh

from jersey post

. Florence could sit over some part of the Mid-Atlantic for several days, similar to what Harvey did last year over eastern Texas. It has the potential to dump unthinkable amounts of rain over a large area in the Mid-Atlantic and perhaps into the Northeast.

 

[Jax49]

5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 10
Location: 24.9°N 58.9°W
Moving: WNW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 969 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

FLORENCE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE VERY SOON..

 

[Jax49]

Florence : BoatUS Hurricane Tracking & Resource Center

 

[JerseyGirl]

5:00 a.m. Forecast. Next forecast at 11:00 eastern

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) | Twitter

The strength and orientation of an area of high pressure over the western Atlantic will be key to Florence's movement this week.

The high will guide Florence more toward the west-northwest around the middle of the week.

If the high weakens, Florence will make a quicker turn to the northwest and may skirt the North Carolina and Virginia coastline without making landfall.

If the high remains strong, Florence will take a slower turn to the northwest and be guided onshore over North or South Carolina.

Strengthening Florence to pose serious threat to US East Coast later this week

 

[MimosaMornings]

Great! Bought tickets for the Carolina game in Chapel Hill on Saturday and planned to leave early Sunday for Myrtle Beach.
I hope a refund is possible!

 

[JerseyGirl]

Great! Bought tickets for the Carolina game in Chapel Hill on Saturday and planned to leave early Sunday for Myrtle Beach.
I hope a refund is possible!

Given the conditions and emergency response required, it seems extremely unlikely a football game between the Knights and Tar Heels would be played in Chapel Hill, N.C. UNC officials said they were in touch with UCF and had not yet decided how to handle sporting events scheduled this week on campus.

For now, both teams are preparing as though a game will be played, although some UCF fans have posted on social media they are already canceling hotel reservations to free up spots for local North Carolina residents who may need shelter due to the storm.

Hurricane Florence: UCF, UNC officials monitor storm, undecided on game status

 

[CARIIS]

I hope everyone stays safe.

It was on CNN a few minutes ago but i did not catch exactly where tho

Some shelters they opened are now being closed cause they found out they cant handle a cat 4?also saying this will be the most intense in the area for decades

Chad Myers - - it may landfall at 3 but the ocean underneath it has been under 150 mph winds for quite some time so the surge is still gonna be intense because the storm has moved so much water by the 150mph winds . Never heard that before , I love learning, --visually it makes sense



what a mess