Hurricane Nate - October 2017

[MelmothTheLost]

Hurricane could strike US Gulf Coast this weekend, forecasters warn

It will hit somewhere between Mobile, Alabama and Florida’s capital, Tallahasse, National Hurricane Center warns

Weeks after parts of the US were devastated by a pair of deadly hurricanes, forecasters are warning that another one could strike America’s Gulf Coast over the weekend.


The newly formed tropical depression is currently lingering around 45 miles away the south west Caribbean island of San Andres.


But America’s National Hurricane Center has warned it is expected to become a tropical storm. It then expects the storm to develop into a Category 1 hurricane over the weekend when it will hit somewhere between Mobile, Alabama and Florida’s capital, Tallahassee.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...national-hurricane-center-warns-a7983816.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones

[url]http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents
[/URL]

 

[JerseyGirl]

This tropical depression could become Hurricane Nate as it brushes past the western portion of Florida’s Panhandle and the northern Gulf Coast late this weekend.

Strengthening is likely over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night and Friday.

The northern Gulf Coast could see “direct impacts from wind, storm surge and heavy rainfall, however, it is too early to specify the timing or magnitude of these impacts.”

The storm isn’t expected to veer toward southeast Florida or farther south on the Gulf Coast, such as Naples.

Nate would be a Category 1 hurricane, which would make it a still-dangerous but least intense type of hurricane, with wind speeds of between 74 and 95 mph.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/we...pression-16-storm-florida-20171004-story.html

 

[MelmothTheLost]

Now Tropical Storm Nate, per NOAA.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone#contents

 

[MelmothTheLost]

Hi Coldpizza - thanks for changing the thread title so quickly.

Nate doesn't look as though he will be anything like as serious as other recent hurricanes (unless he really picks up strength over the Gulf) but there'll still be plenty of people in his path.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Hi Coldpizza - thanks for changing the thread title so quickly.

Nate doesn't look as though he will be anything like as serious as other recent hurricanes (unless he really picks up strength over the Gulf) but there'll still be plenty of people in his path.

Wind may not be an issue but storm surge and flooding will be a problem along the coast.

It also depend on the tides too. Sandy was barely a hurricane 1 but her timing when she made landfall in New Jersey was during high tide and a full moon which brought about 8 feet or more of water surging.

The area that Nate seems to be heading towards was affected by Katrina. I'm curious how stable those areas are to storm surge after Katrina.

 

[Spellbound]

Good grief ... I have never followed weather threads like I have this season!

Hopefully, Nate will become a dud (I can hope, can’t I?). This is all getting to be too much.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

Wind may not be an issue but storm surge and flooding will be a problem along the coast.

It also depend on the tides too. Sandy was barely a hurricane 1 but her timing when she made landfall in New Jersey was during high tide and a full moon which brought about 8 feet or more of water surging.

The area that Nate seems to be heading towards was affected by Katrina. I'm curious how stable those areas are to storm surge after Katrina.

Looking at the NOAA cone projection, it currrently suggests the NE eyewall will be a direct hit on New Orleans.

I agree, tides will be important. It's full moon tonight and will be 93% waning gibbous on Saturday night/Sunday morning when landfall is currently expected.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Nate's forecast track had shifted slightly west by midmorning Thursday, putting New Orleans -- with its compromised drainage system -- directly in the storm's sights. The city's unique drainage system still is experiencing critical deficiencies exposed during heavy August storms that led to the flooding of several hundred properties. Of New Orleans' 120 drainage pumps, 108 were in service Thursday morning. Five of those pumps were relatively small and located in newer sections of the city where localized flooding has not been a problem this summer. Another four were among the system's 20 so-called "constant duty" pumps, which are also small and work to clear the streets of runoff from lawn watering and other daily water usage.

One major pump that remained out of service was located at the city's largest-capacity pump station in the city's Lakeview neighborhood, which serves a heavily populated swath along the city's western edge and a large section of neighboring Jefferson Parish. Another major pump was in nearby City Park. The third was across the Mississippi River, in the suburban-style Algiers section of town.

The water board also had backup generators at all 24 of its major pump stations, including 10 temporary generators installed recently. A key turbine that powers the city's oldest, most powerful pumps at a central power plant failed this summer, exposing the complete lack of backup power at some locations.

Anyone with Columbus Day weekend plans in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama should pay close attention, as a hurricane landfall in that region looks likely.

http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/05/us/tropical-storm-nate/index.html

 

[Lato]

New Orleans is getting ready.....but the pump system will tell the tale....flooding and how much? There can be street flooding with a heavy rain.

http://www.nola.com/weather/index.s...braces_for_what_co.html#incart_river_home_pop

 

[Henry2326]

Overnight models very consistent with location. Of course, we are in the 5 day cone so they should become closer. Intensity models show a very low cat1 model at this time. The system will be moving relatively fast, so to build it will need to spend time over water. We will hope that it moves really fast and doesn't have time to intensify...

http://spaghettimodels.com

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[Lato]

Mike Seidel is in Biloxi, MS. As much as I love Biloxi, I hope he stays there.

Made a "hurricane run" and filled up car, got money from bank, went to Rouse's grocery.....which has 24 bottles of water for $2.99. You can begin to get the feeling.....a storm in the Gulf.....the local news is covering the greater NO area.

I pulled the "Hurricane Prep" list off the bulletin board and began making more ice.

I hear from the weather channel that there are 22 deaths from Nate already.

 

[MaryG12]

Good grief ... I have never followed weather threads like I have this season!

Hopefully, Nate will become a dud (I can hope, can’t I?). This is all getting to be too much.

Same here with the weather threads - looks like it will miss much of FL except the panhandle.

 

[Henry2326]

From 2:00 pm Saturday to 2:00 pm Sunday, there is a gap in activity in the models. The first pic below demonstrated the gap. Uncertainty as to intensity at landfall.

Nate in pic 2 trying to get organized.

http://spaghettimodels.com

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[Henry2326]

Big question....80 mph or stronger at landfall? Ahead of the storm both New Orleans and Alabama have declared state of emergency.

http://spaghettimodels.com

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[Henry2326]

Central America already experiencing flooding from Nate.

http://spaghettimodels.com

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[JerseyGirl]

Nate is forecast to reach the northern Gulf Coast this weekend as a hurricane, and the threat of direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is increasing from Louisiana through the Florida Panhandle,” the hurricane center said in a forecast on Thursday evening.

Officials expected to issue a hurricane watch for part of the Gulf Coast by Friday morning.

Florida

Even as the storm tracked farther west, Gov. Rick Scott of Florida, who this week urged residents to “remain vigilant, restock hurricane supply kits and ensure hurricane preparedness plans are in place,” declared a state of emergency for 29 counties.

Louisiana

The authorities in Louisiana, where Gov. John Bel Edwards predicted “a direct hit,” warned that the forecast for Nate could abruptly worsen, and he told residents to prepare to wait out the storm beginning at 8 p.m. on Saturday.

In New Orleans, officials planned to begin handing out sandbags on Friday. But the city, which acknowledged that storm surge flooding was “probable,” said Thursday that its “primary concern” through the weekend was heavy wind.

“Landfall is expected early Sunday morning, either as a strong tropical storm or a weak Category 1 hurricane,” Mr. Edwards said. He said officials expected the fast-moving storm to drop three to six inches of rain on Louisiana. “But that’s what’s expected as of today.”

Officials in Louisiana ordered evacuations in part of St. Bernard Parish east of New Orleans, and a voluntary evacuation was ordered early Thursday in Grand Isle, south of New Orleans.

Alabama, Mississippi, Kentucky, West Virginia

Officials in Alabama and Mississippi also said they were monitoring the storm’s development. Nate is expected to rapidly weaken after landfall, and it could be a tropical depression over Kentucky or West Virginia by Monday afternoon.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/10/05/us/nate-hurricane-gulf-coast-sunday-.html
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/1...lls-at-least-22-as-storm-moves-toward-us.html

No drilling rigs were evacuated, but one movable rig was taken out of the storm's path. The agency estimated less than 15 percent of the current oil production in the Gulf of Mexico has been shut-in, which equates to 254,607 barrels of oil per day.

 

[MelmothTheLost]

Overnight models very consistent with location. Of course, we are in the 5 day cone so they should become closer. Intensity models show a very low cat1 model at this time. The system will be moving relatively fast, so to build it will need to spend time over water. We will hope that it moves really fast and doesn't have time to intensify...

http://spaghettimodels.com

Henry, the bottom right image seems to suggest Nate and the disturbance in the Bahamas might be on a collision course over the Gulf. How likely is that and what's the implication if it happens?

 

[Henry2326]

Hi Mel- the Canadian model is the only model that shows any development of the Low around the Bahamas....but it moves into the Gulf after Nate has crossed over to landfall.

In the pic below, it shows on the Texas coast on Oct 13th.

I'm quite a fan of the Canadian model....they have been the leading indicator for most of the year. They are relatively good at positioning, but not so good at intensity... None of the models predict intensity very well. IMO

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...850&runtime=2017100512&fh=24&xpos=35&ypos=167

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[Henry2326]

Mike's Weather Page tonight:

Latest EURO/GFS show similar landfall locations Saturday into Sunday this weekend. A lot will be determined how Nate does after encountering Central America and gets back over water tomorrow. Small storm circulations can ramp up fast... or get torn apart just as fast. Still forecast to be a Hurricane at landfall. Track is fairly confident. Intensity questions remain as he races up from the Yucatan on Saturday.

http://spaghettimodels.com

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[Henry2326]

NHC 8:00 pm stays the path....

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