IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #15

[otto]

Oh heavens, I just watched it. Did you guys let your kids watch that?
Not judging, just curious about your input. Not to mention I am one that was never fond of horror films.

I know times have changed, and I thought I was a pizzer at 13/14, but I never cussed those words or talked about sex like that. Geez Louise. If I had a teenage...I'd truly not know what I'd decide about their social media use after that. I wish I would have watched it earlier and not late at night. I don't how you guys with teens keep your sanity.

It's fiction that uses a very small amount of live footage.

 

[Copper]

http://www.kcrg.com/evansdaledisapp...issing-Cousins-Miracles-happen-166383486.html

In an interview with The Des Moines Register, [Elizabeth] Smart says "there's always hope."

 

[CoeTrawk]

Hi CoeTrawk! You probably want to edit your post to remove the link from the scanner thread. All of the Private forums are for WS members only, and it is against the rules to bring any of that info up here to the public forums. We can't link to it or post any info from those threads, including the scanners, up here.

I see that you have not posted much. If you have never had to edit, the edit button is close to the thank you button. Just remove the scanner thread link and I think the rest is okay. I am not a mod, just being friendly and hoping you can fix it so a mod doesn't have to do it and you don't get in trouble! Thanks!

About the purse:
There used to be a public service commercial aimed at school age children which taught them that if they were ever accosted while walking to or from school or their bus stop, they should immediately throw down their backpack or books and run in the opposite direction. This would help them to run faster without having to carry anything and worst case scenerio, if they were not able to get away, the backpack on the ground would be an indicator to police that a child is missing and was taken from that spot.

Thats against the rules? I think I've seen plenty of people do what I just did. Be like, hey guys, the scanner thread might be interesting to read right now and link to it. I purposely didn't go into specifics. Anyone not registered wont be able to follow that link. I know because I was an unregistered lurker at first. Is even a sideways nudge of a link like that not allowed?

Re: the purse tossing PSA, that's interesting. Did our girls know to do that? Was that part of the stranger danger talk their parents say they gave them just before the incident?

I still question that Liz would throw her purse over the fence right by the bikes. Why not throw it straight down? Why not get on the bikes and ride for their lives? Unless they were hanging out on the shore behind the gate...

 

[otto]

Just for the heck of it and because a lot of us have been 'talking' about this for a long time, I thought I'd put out some of the big questions in my mind and my thoughts. the ones we're allowed to discuss here. Please feel free to share your thoughts too. I don't know that any of it gets anyone closer to finding the girls. I wish it did...

...
- Did Mr. C. see the girls while he was watering his lawn? I think so, but I also think he could've mixed up days if he saw them often. I think he'd remember seeing both of them as opposed to just Elizabeth though, so IMO it's likely he saw them.

...
- What about the "little boy" fishing? I believe he didn't see the girls, but there is something about him being there and not seeing them that freaks me out. I hope with all my heart he wasn't involved, which is to say I hope he wasn't another victim.

<snipped by me>

I agree with your comments except for the two above.

Mr C said that he saw a girl (or girls) on their bikes while he was watering his lawn between 12-3. He was uncertain about the time, having been corrected by his wife even though she was not at home at the time. He said that he recognized the girl because she rode by his house every evening, often stopping to talk with people on the street.

I believe that there is a girl that rides her bike by the house every evening and that she rode by his house that afternoon, but I don't believe that it was Elizabeth. If it was, the family would have confirmed that Elizabeth was out on her bike every evening and the neighbors would have confirmed that they all knew Elizabeth. That has not happened.

I think that it is a mistake to assume that a little boy (age unknown) would have noticed two girls riding their bikes on the other side of the lake. There are two obstacles between the parking area, where people fish, and the trail along the highway: an Island and trees. There are gaps in the trees, but moving bikes would be little more than a blip between the trees from a distance of a quarter of a mile. In addition to the obstacles, we are talking about a little boy that is paying attention to what he's doing. Is there any reason why we would expect a little boy to know what is going on across the lake? I wouldn't even expect an adult to do that ... most people are pre-occupied with their own activites and even if they glance at something, it doesn't always register.

 

[otto]

Maybe the first bikes (seen by the runner) belonged to someone who was waiting to meet the girls, maybe pre-arranged, someone who had befriended the girls for unknown reason. Maybe they were in or near the lake, fishing, throwing rocks, or in the woods while they waited for the girls. The girls showed up, parked their bikes (in the location found by LE) walked to the other side of the fence, set the purse down and forgot it, and left willingly with the "friends". Maybe the "friends" rode their bikes into the woods or further along the trail with the girls either walking or hitching a ride on the bike. Maybe they went to a nearby house or (if "friends" were older) to a car/van/truck. From that point...something went wrong because the girls never returned to their bikes!

IMOO...I think the girls went to the lake to meet someone and something went terribly wrong! I don't think the bikes were staged. I think there were 2 sets of bikes, which is why there is little info given about their descriptions, and why there is such conflict with the timeline. With this theory, the girls would have been on camera, the runner would have seen 2 bikes (not the girl's bikes), and Mr C would have seen the girls.

If two perps rode their bikes to the lake to meet the girls, how could they abduct the girls? There would have been two kidnappers on bikes and two girls leaving their bikes on the trail because the decided to walk to some unknown location with two kidnappers ... even though they were expected home within the hour. That doesn't add up for me.

 

[Fukiyama]

I don't think there is any significant difference between the cyclist making a call at 12:27 and that same call being received at 12:28. It's possible that the minute happened to change right at that moment. I think the time on the all the cell phones was likely the same or within a few seconds of each other.

But the important thing is not the difference between TG and the person he was calling, but TG and Mr. Pahl and his time stamped CCTV. As Grainne pointed out by exploring her US Cellular phone and calling the company, certain phones will automatically update, so thanks to that, we can pin down the CCTV time stamp. But TG is still hanging out there and we have no idea what company he uses or what his plan is. Not all companies and plans are equal. I know my cell phone does not update automatically.

 

[LucyOso]

Uh... what? I've seen plenty of people do what I just did. Be like, hey guys, the scanner thread might be interesting to read right now and link to it. I purposely didn't go into specifics. Anyone not registered wont be able to follow that link. I know because I was an unregistered lurker at first. Is even a sideways nudge of a link like that not allowed?

Re: the purse tossing PSA, that's interesting. Did our girls know to do that? Was that part of the stranger danger talk their parents say they gave them just before the incident?

I still question that Liz would throw her purse over the fence right by the bikes. Why not throw it straight down? Why not get on the bikes and ride for their lives? Unless they were hanging out on the shore behind the gate...

I always thought the perp (or one of them) threw the purse over the fence (maybe teasing them) to lure them to the otherside of the fence. The girls stop on the bike path. Someone (perp) is horseplaying and tosses the purse. Girls go around fence to get it and are snatched. They may have tried to climb the fence from where they were or, it is close enough to have run around and left their bikes haphazardly so they could locate where they were or what not once on the otherside of the fence. Or the perp tossed the purse knowing it would "place" the girls on the lake side of the fence so the perp could buy time knowing searching the lake is the obvious thing to do when kids are missing around water.

 

[otto]

Well, the times can rule out or make possible various scenarios.

If the time on the video really was 12:11 pm, then there's enough time for TG to have seen the bicycles at about 12:20 pm (particularly if he estimated a little long).

If the time on the video really was 12:19 pm and TG's cell phone is accurate, then there is no way he could have seen the girls' bicycles on the path. Even if you go with the theory that the perp ran them across town by vehicle. A one minute difference is just not long enough, so TG was mistaken in some manner (I think he is sincere and not lying).

Most importantly, narrowing the time frame down helps in evaluating possible suspects. If LE has narrowed down the time window to, say, 20 minutes then they know to spend extra effort verifying any potential suspect's alibi during that time period.

Verifying a 20 minute slot is a lot easier than verifying a 3 hour slot. Three hours is plenty long enough for a person to move around from place to place quite innocently. Or guiltily, as the case may be.

The video time is 12:19. Let's give the girls 6 minutes to get to the lake by first going South on River Forest Road and entering the trail at the West end.

The cyclists time at the parking lot washroom is 12:27-8. He came around a curve, saw two bikes, swerved, continued on. The girls could have ridden to the lake, decided to go to the water, dropped their bikes, walked to the shore. They may have decided there were too many trees, returned to their bikes, ridden them to the unlocked double gate, leaned the bikes against the fence, gone to the easily accessible shore, encountered someone in the area and vanished.

It's also possible that the cyclist didn't see the right bikes. I think the girls had vanished by 1:30 as they knew they had to be home ... I doubt that they would have been fooling around choosing not to be home at, say, 2:30.

 

[otto]

I guess I'll watch it tonight.

There was a kidnapping of a 10yo girl right by my home in 1993, Katie Beers. She was kepted in a underground bunker for 2 weeks. The suspect Esposito was her parents friend who would often take the kids to a arcade nearby, shower them with video games etc. Her brother told police he was sexually abused by Esposito who also had a prior history of abusing another boy years earlier. . They searched his home but never found her. After he confessed he told LE about a hidden trapped door under a rug in his home which led to the bunker. She was alive! I will never forget seeing on the news LE taking apart the bunker. It was a miracle. Lets hope the outcome here will be the same.

http://www.nytimes.com/1993/01/14/n...r-16-days-is-found-in-secret-room.html?src=pm

I would recommend that you not watch it unless you want to see a fiction film about nasty parents, nasty teenagers, horrific fictional illustrations of tortured and raped girls and party scenes where 20 something males abuse teenage girls.

Also, if you watch it, do a virus scan. I had trouble streaming it on one laptop so I tried on the other, but it wouldn't open because the virus software is better and it detected a virus on the website that hosts the movies. I was able to watch it on one laptop, and I did have a virus on my machine after.

 

[dotr]

Girls that have gone missing from Iowa, blog, some bad language.
http://crimecrawlers.wordpress.com/...hart-second-missing-woman-in-small-iowa-town/

 

[otto]

But the important thing is not the difference between TG and the person he was calling, but TG and Mr. Pahl and his time stamped CCTV. As Grainne pointed out by exploring her US Cellular phone and calling the company, certain phones will automatically update, so thanks to that, we can pin down the CCTV time stamp. But TG is still hanging out there and we have no idea what company he uses or what his plan is. Not all companies and plans are equal. I know my cell phone does not update automatically.

Has anyone ever had to set the time on their cell phones? I certainly haven't. I think the time is automatically set with the phone and cannot be modified by the customer.

 

[hambirg]

1. It wasn't a stranger abduction but someone wanted it to look like one.

2. It was a stranger abduction but they needed a diversion. Not so much to buy time, but to redirect the focus. Someone who lives or works close to the house. If the bikes had not been found, how differently would the neighborhood around the house have been treated?

These are my thoughts too.

What if the girls went to someone's house? You can't leave the bikes at the house. The perp could have taken the bikes to the lake, say instead of out in the middle of nowhere, because of time constraints or maybe they didn't have transportation (like if the house was near the lake.)

I also think if it was a stranger abduction that staging the bikes at the lake could have not been so much to buy time, but to draw attention away from an area that the perp didn't want looked at or known. If they had been dumped out of town, even if they weren't found for some time, it would still give LE direction. . .like say the girls were taken to Mexico, like someone suggested up thread.

I'm still not convinced that the bikes were staged, but I can think of some reasons why they would be.

MOO

 

[GrainneDhu]

But the important thing is not the difference between TG and the person he was calling, but TG and Mr. Pahl and his time stamped CCTV. As Grainne pointed out by exploring her US Cellular phone and calling the company, certain phones will automatically update, so thanks to that, we can pin down the CCTV time stamp. But TG is still hanging out there and we have no idea what company he uses or what his plan is. Not all companies and plans are equal. I know my cell phone does not update automatically.

I agree!

Of course, I think someone needs to make sure Mr P was accurate when he said the cctv camera was slow. It's easy to misspeak and really mean that the camera is fast.

That would put the cctv footage at 12:03 pm and open up the timeline somewhat.

 

[Sunlight]

The video time is 12:19. Let's give the girls 6 minutes to get to the lake by first going South on River Forest Road and entering the trail at the West end.

The cyclists time at the parking lot washroom is 12:27-8. He came around a curve, saw two bikes, swerved, continued on. The girls could have ridden to the lake, decided to go to the water, dropped their bikes, walked to the shore. They may have decided there were too many trees, returned to their bikes, ridden them to the unlocked double gate, leaned the bikes against the fence, gone to the easily accessible shore, encountered someone in the area and vanished.

It's also possible that the cyclist didn't see the right bikes. I think the girls had vanished by 1:30 as they knew they had to be home ... I doubt that they would have been fooling around choosing not to be home at, say, 2:30.

If the time is 12:19 plus 6 minutes to ride their bikes without having to stop on the way, that puts them there at 12:25. You are saying they have enough time to jump off their bikes, disappear into the woods or be along the shore, and 2 minutes later...the cyclist is at the WC making the phone call. Nope. That dog don't hunt. MOO

 

[hambirg]

Has anyone ever had to set the time on their cell phones? I certainly haven't. I think the time is automatically set with the phone and cannot be modified by the customer.

I agree. I've never had to set the time on any cell phone. It's always set automatically. I always use my cell phone for when I want to know the time, because I've found it to be the most accurate.

 

[Jax49]

Update on the attempted abduction out of Waukee, Iowa.

http://whotv.com/2012/08/16/attempted-abduction-waukee-incident-reported/

Snipped:

Police say a man in a purple van with three black stripes got out of the vehicle and told a female 5th grader to get into the van.
The girl described the suspected as a black male in his 30s wearing a long gold trench coat, black hat, and black sunglasses with red rims. The girl ran home to get away.

 

[otto]

These are my thoughts too.

What if the girls went to someone's house? You can't leave the bikes at the house. The perp could have taken the bikes to the lake, say instead of out in the middle of nowhere, because of time constraints or maybe they didn't have transportation (like if the house was near the lake.)

I also think if it was a stranger abduction that staging the bikes at the lake could have not been so much to buy time, but to draw attention away from an area that the perp didn't want looked at or known. If they had been dumped out of town, even if they weren't found for some time, it would still give LE direction. . .like say the girls were taken to Mexico, like someone suggested up thread.

I'm still not convinced that the bikes were staged, but I can think of some reasons why they would be.

MOO

If the bikes were in any way staged, we have to add one perp with two little girls bikes, or two perps with two little girls bikes ... and a purple purse ... to the scenario. If we're expecting a little boy that is fishing to spot two cycling girls a quarter of a mile away, shouldn't we also expect that someone would notice perps with little girls bikes and a purple purse?

I don't think the bikes were staged. Staging of a crime scene might be done in the dead of night, but not at noon on a Friday next to a busy highway filled with construction crews.

 

[otto]

If the time is 12:19 plus 6 minutes to ride their bikes without having to stop on the way, that puts them there at 12:25. You are saying they have enough time to jump off their bikes, disappear into the woods or be along the shore, and 2 minutes later...the cyclist is at the WC making the phone call. Nope. That dog don't hunt. MOO

To exclude that possibility, we need to know where on the trail the cyclist saw the bikes. I don't think we know. We also don't know if he could identify the bikes. FBI have confirmed that a "runner" saw the girls bikes, but they haven't confirmed that a cyclist saw the bikes. Also, the cyclsit's tip was first posted on Facebook, but the "runner's" tip was only made public by FBI.

Perhaps you're right ... we can exclude the cyclist's tip and the lawn watering tip.

 

[otto]

Update on the attempted abduction out of Waukee, Iowa.

http://whotv.com/2012/08/16/attempted-abduction-waukee-incident-reported/

Snipped:

Police say a man in a purple van with three black stripes got out of the vehicle and told a female 5th grader to get into the van.
The girl described the suspected as a black male in his 30s wearing a long gold trench coat, black hat, and black sunglasses with red rims. The girl ran home to get away.

It sounds like something straight out of a 1970s movies. Gold trench coat, red sunglasses and a hat ... and he was trying to sneak a child off the street? It sounds like all he was missing was a neon sign and it sounds unlikely to me. With some of the false reports coming out, I have to wonder if parents are going overboard and scaring the wits out of their children.

 

[Jax49]

To exclude that possibility, we need to know where on the trail the cyclist saw the bikes. I don't think we know. We also don't know if he could identify the bikes. FBI have confirmed that a "runner" saw the girls bikes, but they haven't confirmed that a cyclist saw the bikes. Also, the cyclsit's tip was first posted on Facebook, but the "runner's" tip was only made public by FBI.

Perhaps you're right ... we can exclude the cyclist's tip and the lawn watering tip.

Did the FBI say anything about the time the 'runner' specified? IIRC they didn't.