IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #15

[GrainneDhu]

The video time is 12:19. Let's give the girls 6 minutes to get to the lake by first going South on River Forest Road and entering the trail at the West end.

The cyclists time at the parking lot washroom is 12:27-8. He came around a curve, saw two bikes, swerved, continued on. The girls could have ridden to the lake, decided to go to the water, dropped their bikes, walked to the shore. They may have decided there were too many trees, returned to their bikes, ridden them to the unlocked double gate, leaned the bikes against the fence, gone to the easily accessible shore, encountered someone in the area and vanished.

It's also possible that the cyclist didn't see the right bikes. I think the girls had vanished by 1:30 as they knew they had to be home ... I doubt that they would have been fooling around choosing not to be home at, say, 2:30.

I thought TG rode to the Casey's gas station to use the restroom.

Even if he didn't, he still had to ride from wherever he saw the bikes on the trail to whichever restroom facility he used, use it and then call his daughter. I just don't think he could do that in less than 3 minutes.

I just can't make it work on a timeline that shows the girls at 12:19 pm unless TG's cell phone is way off on time. Just not enough time.

I definitely agree that the girls were gone by 1:30 pm.

 

[callyn]

I agree. I've never had to set the time on any cell phone. It's always set automatically. I always use my cell phone for when I want to know the time, because I've found it to be the most accurate.

Just checked the time on my cell against the U.S. official time, it's 2 minutes wrong!

 

[Sunlight]

Cinderella's shoe just doesn't seem to fit no matter how you try to cram the foot in it. MOO

 

[Sunlight]

Just checked the time on my cell against the U.S. official time, it's 2 minutes wrong!

Faster or slower? What type of cell is it?

The thing about the cell call in question is that the cell phone "call" registered at 12:27, when it was looked back on to find out what time the call was made...it wasn't that the person looked at the phone at the time the call was made, as far as I understand it. MOO

 

[otto]

Did the FBI say anything about the time the 'runner' specified? IIRC they didn't.

I haven't read anything attaching a time to the "runner", but some people here have posted a time of 2 or 2:30. I haven't seen a link.

 

[Marilynilpa]

I thought TG rode to the Casey's gas station to use the restroom.

Even if he didn't, he still had to ride from wherever he saw the bikes on the trail to whichever restroom facility he used, use it and then call his daughter. I just don't think he could do that in less than 3 minutes.

I just can't make it work on a timeline that shows the girls at 12:19 pm unless TG's cell phone is way off on time. Just not enough time.

I definitely agree that the girls were gone by 1:30 pm.

I agree, the timeline just doesn't work. Either Mr. Pahl is mistaken when he says the video is off by 8 minutes, or TG is mistaken about when he saw he bikes.

Unless they were two totally different bikes, which is possible but IMO unlikely.

It seems very likely that the girls were abducted by 1:30 p.m. because I don't think Lyric wanted to get in trouble for being late again.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Mr G never ever said he saw the bikes at exactly 12.20.

He said he saw them AROUND 12.20.

I agree the timeline is tight but it absolutely fits...like OJ's glove.

 

[otto]

I thought TG rode to the Casey's gas station to use the restroom.

Even if he didn't, he still had to ride from wherever he saw the bikes on the trail to whichever restroom facility he used, use it and then call his daughter. I just don't think he could do that in less than 3 minutes.

I just can't make it work on a timeline that shows the girls at 12:19 pm unless TG's cell phone is way off on time. Just not enough time.

I definitely agree that the girls were gone by 1:30 pm.

It's my understanding that when the daughter of the cyclist posted the information on Facebook, she also mentioned that her father used the washroom at the parking lot.

I'm happy to exclude the cyclist's sighting. It certainly hasn't been confirmed by FBI, although they have confirmed that a "runner" that regularly used the trail saw the bikes.

 

[otto]

Mr G never ever said he saw the bikes at exactly 12.20.

He said he saw them AROUND 12.20.

I agree the timeline is tight but it absolutely fits...like OJ's glove.

Mr Pahl, the video guy, spent a couple of days with investigators and at the end of that, he said that his video was 8 minutes slower than his cell phone. I'm going to assume that this is what he knew to be true after 2 days with investigators. If we go with the cyclist at 12:20, that places the girls near the Collin's home at 12:19 and 1.5 miles away at 12:20. That doesn't fit ... like OJs glove didn't fit.

 

[Sunlight]

It's my understanding that when the daughter of the cyclist posted the information on Facebook, she also mentioned that her father used the washroom at the parking lot.

I'm happy to exclude the cyclist's sighting. It certainly hasn't been confirmed by FBI, although they have confirmed that a "runner" that regularly used the trail saw the bikes.

How can you exclude the sighting...he's the only one that has put himself there, then, including stating that he saw bikes in the path that he had to swerve around. It matters. It doesn't mean he's the perp, it means something happened. There is the possibility that the bikes he saw were perps' bikes and that he rode by right before the girls got there. (not my theory..but it is possible). We can't pretend he doesn't exist...oh wait..LE said...

 

[nikb]

In looking for the link to the 2:30 sighting Aunt T. mentioned I ran across a bunch of other stuff, and wanted to share this link: http://dsagert.blogspot.com/2012/07/the-search-for-lyric-and-elizabeth.html. It has quite a few pictures I hadn't seen before and thought others might like to see as well.

 

[nikb]

More pics: http://www.cbsnews.com/2300-504083_162-10012959.html?tag=page

 

[hambirg]

If the bikes were in any way staged, we have to add one perp with two little girls bikes, or two perps with two little girls bikes ... and a purple purse ... to the scenario. If we're expecting a little boy that is fishing to spot two cycling girls a quarter of a mile away, shouldn't we also expect that someone would notice perps with little girls bikes and a purple purse?

I don't think the bikes were staged. Staging of a crime scene might be done in the dead of night, but not at noon on a Friday next to a busy highway filled with construction crews.

This is my thinking about IF the bikes were staged. . .

If the girls were abducted at that spot, nobody saw. So it is just as likely that somebody could have put the bikes there without being seen. Whatever happened in that area of the trail, nobody saw.

My thinking is that if the girls went to somebody's house. . . say a friend's house. . and the friend isn't home, but creepy dad, uncle, older brother, etc is. The perp could have held the girls against their will in someway. . .BUT needed to get rid of the bikes ASAP, either because they were expecting somebody home or they have nosy neighbors, etc. They take the bikes down to the lake, possibly parking in Maiden Lane and quickly taking them around the east end of the fence, then dropping the purse. Back to the house the perp goes, and now he can take his time because nobody will be the wiser that the girls ever stopped at the house.

I'm not saying this is what happened, just that it is another possibility.

 

[ShyViolet]

This is my thinking about IF the bikes were staged. . .

If the girls were abducted at that spot, nobody saw. So it is just as likely that somebody could have put the bikes there without being seen. Whatever happened in that area of the trail, nobody saw.

My thinking is that if the girls went to somebody's house. . . say a friend's house. . and the friend isn't home, but creepy dad, uncle, older brother, etc is. The perp could have held the girls against their will in someway. . .BUT needed to get rid of the bikes ASAP, either because they were expecting somebody home or they have nosy neighbors, etc. They take the bikes down to the lake, possibly parking in Maiden Lane and quickly taking them around the east end of the fence, then dropping the purse. Back to the house the perp goes, and now he can take his time because nobody will be the wiser that the girls ever stopped at the house.

I'm not saying this is what happened, just that it is another possibility.

I have had the exact same thoughts. I won't call it "my theory", but it is one possibility I have mulled over. I agree with you that I don't see how staging the bikes would be any more risky than abducting two girls from that spot.

 

[RNER]

Thats against the rules? I think I've seen plenty of people do what I just did. Be like, hey guys, the scanner thread might be interesting to read right now and link to it. I purposely didn't go into specifics. Anyone not registered wont be able to follow that link. I know because I was an unregistered lurker at first. Is even a sideways nudge of a link like that not allowed?

Re: the purse tossing PSA, that's interesting. Did our girls know to do that? Was that part of the stranger danger talk their parents say they gave them just before the incident?

I still question that Liz would throw her purse over the fence right by the bikes. Why not throw it straight down? Why not get on the bikes and ride for their lives? Unless they were hanging out on the shore behind the gate...

Girls at this age are attached to their purses and yes they may take them everywhere! However, they are also easily distracted and unfocused. Maybe they sat the purse down to engage in other activities, such as walking through the woods, fishing, biking, etc, (which my girls would have done at this age) and "forgot it" or they were lured away from the purse and never had the opportunity to retrieve it. Either way, I think the girls probably put the purse and the bikes where they were found with the intention of returning to them. I just don't believe that they were staged-too much trouble and risk of being caught. Why throw the purse over the fence when it would already be obvious that the girls were there because of the bikes? I would think that the bikes being on the bike path next to the lake would cause enough speculation about them going into the lake. If a perp really wanted to make it appear that they were "in or near the lake", why not throw their shoes there or throw the purse or shoes IN the lake?

 

[nikb]

Good transcript from an early JVM show: http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/1207/16/ijvm.01.html. Couple of snippets, BBM:

- BROUSSEAU: And one man stepped forward and said, "Yes, I seen them going east on the bike trail at about 2:30." Now, whether he`s telling the truth or not, they do have this man`s name. You know, I don`t know. Whether he`s a person of interest, I don`t know.

- DANIEL MORRISSEY, FATHER OF LYRIC: When I got there, it was around 5 p.m. And they already roped off the whole area, and they weren`t allowing anybody back there. I have no idea what the bikes` positions were.

I believe the direction they said was going west on the trail. So like, they were going to probably continue in the same direction. They just stopped, it seemed like.

- VELEZ-MITCHELL: You are the aunt -- and you`re the sister of Misty, and you`re the aunt of these two girls. I understand that you taught Lyric what to do if anybody ever tried to grab her. Tell us about that.

- BROUSSEAU: Absolutely. I have taught my girls -- for fear of this exact situation ever happening, I have taught my daughter, who is 11, and she`s very close to Lyric, the 10-year-old, Misty`s daughter.

I have taught her, if someone approaches you and they`ve got their hand on you, drop your body to the ground. Kick, fight, scream, do everything you can in your will to stop them from getting you into a vehicle, because once they`ve gotten you into a vehicle, you know the chances of your survival decrease.

And Lyric was very, very on top of this. She`s very aware of it. So it`s very baffling to understand how someone got off with a 10-year-old and an 8-year-old at the same time. Because it`s as though they disappeared into thin air in broad daylight.

VELEZ-MITCHELL: <snip> You`re the aunt of the missing girls. You said that you went two the area where they ultimately found the bikes. Did you see the bikes? Did you find them?

BROUSSEAU: I did not find them. As I was saying, a man, who I approached and started asking questions, said he had seen the girls going east on the bike trail. It`s a small lake. It wraps around on the south side of the lake.

With my sister Heather, the mother of Elizabeth Collins, the 8-year- old, she called the police at 2 p.m. By 3 p.m., Evansdale police were there, and the deputies from Waterloo were all swarming the place. They went on -- they drove their vehicles right onto the bike trail. We watched them go to the site. They found the bicycles. They contacted us and said, "We have -- we have the bicycles. We have Elizabeth`s purse and no girls."

 

[RNER]

If two perps rode their bikes to the lake to meet the girls, how could they abduct the girls? There would have been two kidnappers on bikes and two girls leaving their bikes on the trail because the decided to walk to some unknown location with two kidnappers ... even though they were expected home within the hour. That doesn't add up for me.

I think they went to the lake to meet someone they knew or someone they considered "a friend". Maybe they were lured away innocently and willingly at first...then things changed because the "friends" had bad intentions.

Kids will push the limits of time constraints, engage in risky behavior, and ignore consequences, especially if it is to meet a "friend" who the admire or have a crush on, and for girls, it starts at this age!

 

[SapphireSteel]

Mr Pahl, the video guy, spent a couple of days with investigators and at the end of that, he said that his video was 8 minutes slower than his cell phone. I'm going to assume that this is what he knew to be true after 2 days with investigators. If we go with the cyclist at 12:20, that places the girls near the Collin's home at 12:19 and 1.5 miles away at 12:20. That doesn't fit ... like OJs glove didn't fit.

That's not how I read it.

I read it that Mr P believes the FBI is working with an 8 minute time frame.

It may be semantics...but Mr P does seem to be discussing how far the girls could've gotten in 8 minutes, rather than the difference in clocks, when he says this -

“It’s pretty hard for girls to get a mile and a half away ... in eight minutes,” Pahl said. “I don’t even think I could ride a bike a mile in eight minutes.”

As you stated, this was after a day and a half with the FBI. If Mr P thinks an eight minute travel time is being tossed around by the FBI, for whatever reason, I believe him.

:moo:

 

[nikb]

Girls at this age are attached to their purses and yes they may take them everywhere! However, they are also easily distracted and unfocused. <snipped for space>

I think it depends on the child. I carried a purse/bag once in awhile at that age but didn't care all that much about it and I don't think it had much in it - maybe a small doll or something. My stuffed animals on the other hand, I would carry around, "take care" of them, and no way would I leave one behind intentionally. My sister-in-law is way different on this point, loves her purses/bags and apparently has since she was a little kid. From what my husband says she would've been completely upset to leave a purse behind, whereas I would probably have barely noticed a missing purse (but don't touch my Pound Puppy!).

I wish we knew how Elizabeth usually is with her purse.

 

[Sunlight]

TB says Heather "called the police at 2 p.m. by 3 p.m. Evansdale police were there"

Now...what time did she speak with that guy, who she says said he saw them going east at 2:30.? What time did TB get there? How could he have seen them at 2:30 and be talking to her after 2:30...I'm confused.

Oh, and I see that DM didn't get there till 5 p.m.

I was under the impression that Heather made a personal report at the station at 2:45. MOO