IA IA - Elizabeth Collins, 8, & Lyric Cook, 10, Evansdale, 13 July 2012 - #15

[threecrazykids]

They can offer you a plea deal if you give up information, but the deal is only sealed once you talk. They can withdraw the deal at any time if you don't talk or if you give them bad information. The DA's office is the only one authorized to offer a plea deal. LE or the defense attorney can suggest it, but the DA does not have to go along with it.
Maybe Dan refused the deal because he was scared whoever he was ratting out could go after his family. And just maybe that someone didn't know he didn't talk, and that's why the girls were taken.
Just a thought.

I understand what you're saying, but I just don't buy it. I don't think that perps want kids in exchange for possible silence. They want silence, period. Taking someone's kids isn't going to guarantee them anything. Maybe I watch too much TV but don't the "bad guys" usually just silence the talker? Why put yourself even more out there by abducting kids?

I could very well be wrong, but by the lack of information given by LE, in addition to the amount of time with no big break in the case, I tend to believe this was a perfect storm of opportunity for a random abduction.

 

[SapphireSteel]

What would hurt you more?:
1) Someone hurts you, or kills you
2) Someone steals your kid, and you have to go spend your life in prison, never being able to look for your kid, and never knowing what happened to her?

This theory does not account for Lizzie.

:moo:

 

[nikb]

This theory does not account for Lizzie.

:moo:

Wrong place, wrong time? Could apply to either or both of the girls depending on the original motive(s) IMO.

 

[JaimeInLA]

This next set are all taken from the bike path, facing north (lake- and woods-ward.) These pictures are posted in order from west to east, unlike my curves gallery. That's just because I was walking counter clockwise around the lake. Hope there's no confusion.

Remember also that the lake is lower than it was a month ago due to draining.

Pic 1: a shot of the shore area. This is what its like for most of the shore. Tall grass and shrubs/bushes line the lakeside. Not the easiest place to enter the water.

Pic 2: closer to the double fenced area (see the start of the north fence to the right of the picture) there is, IMO, VERY easy access to the water. The brown "beach" there was under water of course, but there are no tall grasses stopping someone from jumping in (or parking a paddleboat...) Curve 3 from my last post is in this area.

Pic 3: the maintenence gate where the bikes were found. Locked now. It is thirty paces from the west end of the north fence. If the gate was open that day, it could have been used to get girls into a boat, but IMO the lakeshore area in pic 2 would be even easier. Neither area is more hidden than the other.

Pic 4: this is Maiden Lane as seen thru the fence. No gate here. I didn't notice ML the last time I went here. It suddenly occurs to me that this coincides fairly well with "Curve 2" from my last post. Maybe the girls hopped the fence here to check out this overgrown road, by whim, suggestion, or force.

Pic 5: See, I'm not crazy! LOL. There is a second gate. Also locked, but who says it wasn't on July 13? But as you can see, it doesn't lead anywhere. Maiden Lane ends at non-gate fence. This is just a random gate. But it is there and may have been used to catch the girls off guard. It is not very far from the end of Maiden Lane.

What strikes me most about this set is just HOW CLOSE the woods are to the jetty/double gate. If the girls had stopped here to check out the water, and saw someone fishing over in the wooded/maiden lane area, it would have been very easy to yell across that short distance. We know Elizabeth was "chatty" and liked to wave and say hi to people. It seems like the jetty is close enough to those woods that they wouldn't have even had to yell. They could have just talked and been heard.

Perp: "Hey girls! Walk around over here to meet me and I'll take you for a paddle boat ride!" (Or show you the fish I caught! whatever.)
Girls: "OK!"

I knew it was close, but until I got this perspective on it, I never knew it was THAT close!

 

[GrainneDhu]

My son, throughout his life, has had the unfortunate stress/shock response of completely collapsing. It's quite funny to see, as he simply melts into the ground, but it's probably the worst stress response anyone could have.

You've probably told his pediatrician about this but just in case...

There is a neurological condition called cataplexy where a person loses some or all muscle control when undergoing a sudden change of emotion. It can be any really strong emotion, even laughing. Being startled is one of the commonest triggers.

I know a little about it because once upon a time I worked with a woman who had it. If something funny happened suddenly, she'd be on the floor. In her case, she also had narcolepsy (cataplexy without narcolepsy is more rare).

It is really, really important to get a differential diagnosis for your son as soon as possible, if it has not yet been done. If he has cataplexy, it may be that certain activities will have to be avoided and certain precautions taken.

There are treatments for cataplexy (psychotherapy has no effect) and quite often, after a period of treatment, the patient seems to outgrow the condition, particularly children.

 

[artzypantz]

One thing for sure about the drug Meth, it makes the user very unrational, illogical, Very paranoid, even fall into hallusinations, and/or hear voices. If this is the drug that Dans co-horts were messing with on a consistant basis, & depending upon the hundreds of different chemicals and poisons that are used in the making of it, there is no telling what any of his commrads would do in any event.

They may be able to remain hyperfocused on something, such as an abduction, but i think they would make mistakes & leave clues along the way.

Putting a bullet in ones head may be the most logical rational choice by someone in the drug world IMO.

IDK maybe all Meth users dont become as disoriented as the ones i have encountered in my experience. i have never been a meth user BTW so my observance of them & experience with them is from a logical & rational sober stand point. IMO any one seriously under the influence of Meth could not have successfully pulled off the abduction of 2 girls in broad daylight.
For someone in the drug world to pull off this abduction, they arent using Meth themselves IMO.

And as always, MOO & IMO is derived from my experience only
ArtzyPantz

 

[roseofsharon]

I understand what you're saying, but I just don't buy it. I don't think that perps want kids in exchange for possible silence. They want silence, period. Taking someone's kids isn't going to guarantee them anything. Maybe I watch too much TV but don't the "bad guys" usually just silence the talker? Why put yourself even more out there by abducting kids?

I could very well be wrong, but by the lack of information given by LE, in addition to the amount of time with no big break in the case, I tend to believe this was a perfect storm of opportunity for a random abduction.

Thanks :seeya: I was having trouble formulating the same thoughts for JamieinLA.

 

[SapphireSteel]

One thing for sure about the drug Meth, it makes the user very unrational, illogical, Very paranoid, even fall into hallusinations, and/or hear voices. If this is the drug that Dans co-horts were messing with on a consistant basis, & depending upon the hundreds of different chemicals and poisons that are used in the making of it, there is no telling what any of his commrads would do in any event.

They may be able to remain hyperfocused on something, such as an abduction, but i think they would make mistakes & leave clues along the way.

Putting a bullet in ones head may be the most logical rational choice by someone in the drug world who is not under the substances in Meth IMO.

IDK maybe all Meth users dont become as disoriented as the ones i have encountered in my experience. i have never been a meth user BTW so my observance of them & experience with them is from a logical & rational sober stand point. IMO any one seriously under the influence of Meth could not have successfully pulled off the abduction of 2 girls in broad daylight.
For someone in the drug world to pull off this abduction, they arent using Meth themselves IMO.

And as always, MOO & IMO is derived from my experience only
ArtzyPantz

Meth users are usually only focussed on one thing - getting more meth.

They become scattered, illogical, unable even to accomplish basic tasks like hygiene.

This appears to have been a very well organised abduction. It is extremely unusual for two children to be taken, for ANY reason.

Please do not bring up the Groenes as this is completely different - that was an abduction as a side effect of murder, the perp had time and a vehicle, plus was acting in a very isolated scene.

I sincerely doubt that the abduction of two children has been successfully orchestrated by meth associates trying to put pressure on anyone.

If nothing else, tweakers are LAZY. They can barely think beyond the next score, let alone plan and execute a flawless abduction in the middle of town in the random hope it will place pressure on someone who is also affected by meth, therefore clearly prioritising the drug over his family anyway.

Not bashing the family...it is a fact that neither parent took physical care or responsibility for Lyric, nor had they for some years.

 

[artzypantz]

Wow! Thats kinda harsh don't ya think?:what:

IMO this is NOT harsh at all when it comes to the drug, crimminal, and/or gang world. In FACT its the most likely reality in those worlds. All you have to do is pay very little attention to the news on drug cartels, which filter down all the way to the little local guy in town using or selling drugs, and the news they create. Death or prison is the most likely outcome when you mess up badly, it just depends on who gets you first.

MOO
ArtzyPantz

 

[oceanblueeyes]

In the video, the girl seems not to be afraid of her abductor. She seems to be convinced to go with him. We are not privy to what he said to her but she shows no fear and fear is what triggers the instinct to yell or cry out. She also is closer to teenage than an 8 year old. One of the girls was 8, not a teen and from what I could see she was not emotionally like a teen either. Lyric seemed older than her years and was using social media which is for teens and adults. I still believe the children went with someone they felt they could trust which is why no one noticed. It may also have some part in why the FBI thinks they are alive.
Of course I think it is quite possible a ring is involved and they were groomed and thus showed no fear or noticeable reaction. :moo:

I think Carlie was very afraid but afraid to show she was afraid. Maybe she thought if she did as he said he would let her go. She looks very confused to me. I respectfully disagree. Fear can make someone unable to think clearly.....unable to absorb what is happening to them until it is too late..paralizing them causing them to be unable to react until it is too late. Some will try to run away but there are many cases where they did not and they were much older than Carlie or these children. Carlie is not the only one that didnt scream or kick but complied instead.

I really have seen nothing that makes me think Lyric was old for her age. She seems like a typical 10 year old of today imo. A lot of kids her age are using social media even though they arent suppose to at that age. OT: I just read a news article about a three year old child in Texas that has an IQ of 140. lol It is more the norm that even young people use social media today.

I dont think it had to be someone they knew. Oh they may have known them by sight and passed them often on their bikes rides like Somer Thompson when she passed the pedophile's home that kidnapped/raped/ and murdered her but I dont think they had to know them on a personal basis. I just as easily believe a total stranger could do this.

As I have mentioned before......Joesph Duncan went to a public pool in WA state where two little sisters were swimming. He lead them away and there were people at the pool that day. The FBI later determined he had raped and murdered the two sisters. The mystery of the missing girls went on for a couple of years, iirc and after JED kidnapped Shasta and Dylan.

Most of us have seen numerous shows on child kidnappings by a cop who posed as a fake pedophile and it shows just how easy it is to get children to go off with someone they dont even know.

And we have no idea if a weapon was used either. Although I dont even think that would have been necessary. All he had to do is grab one of the girls and threaten to do harm to them and the bond between the girls would make the other one comply.

I lean more to a stranger kidnapping. They wouldnt be missed in that town if they didnt show back up and they would take the girls out of the area quickly. I just think if it was anyone that had a connection to the girls...even remotely......the police would have made a move by now instead of still asking for anyone to call in if they saw something.

I think the FBI says they are alive because they simply have no evidence showing they are both dead. I sadly do think they are most likely deceased by now and probably were shortly after they were taken.

JMO

 

[JaimeInLA]

I understand what you're saying, but I just don't buy it. I don't think that perps want kids in exchange for possible silence. They want silence, period. Taking someone's kids isn't going to guarantee them anything. Maybe I watch too much TV but don't the "bad guys" usually just silence the talker? Why put yourself even more out there by abducting kids?

I could very well be wrong, but by the lack of information given by LE, in addition to the amount of time with no big break in the case, I tend to believe this was a perfect storm of opportunity for a random abduction.

Because these aren't rational people we are dealing with. YOU might not make the choice to kidnap kids, but drug dealers don't care about getting in trouble. They care about money, territory and revenge. They usually hire an underling to do the dirty work. That underling is usually an addict who will do LITERALLY ANYTHING for money. Did you see the movie Savages? Great film, and it shows just what kind of despicable things drug dealers do all the time without batting an eyelash.

For the record, I don't think that is what happened. But it is definitely possible and we shouldn't rule it out because WE wouldn't do it.

 

[ktgirl]

Elizabeth and Lyric's case reminds me so much of the Lyon sisters' case (except of course, that Elizabeth and Lyric are cousins, not sisters).
Sometimes 2 girls are abducted together. I hope I am wrong, but I think the girls in both cases were taken by a sick sexual predator (obviously I'm not saying it's the same person in both cases, but the same type of person) who took both at the same time. Probably convinced them to go with him (at least at first).

Sheila and Katherine Lyon - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

 

[GrainneDhu]

Maybe I'm the only skeptical one, but I question a lot of the reported alleged abduction attempts. There have been several that were reported that don't make a lot of sense. I'm not a head in the sand kind of person, I'm always very vigilant and cautious with my children, yet I still think that many of the reports this summer have been exaggerated.

I personally don't think they are all legitimate kidnapping attempts. JMHO

I agree with you.

I think that people are on edge right now and things that were innocently meant are being interpreted as abduction attempts. Plus, there's been at least two incidents that I can think of right off the top of my head of adolescents misleading their parents (probably because they don't fully understand the repercussions of their actions).

That little boy from Alabama was an example. From the initial reports, it sounded like an abduction. And then it's discovered that no, it was his own father and he had a court order giving him custody.

Over the years, the number of stereotypical abductions seems to remain between 100 and 150 per year. Out of a nation of 300 million people, that's... I'm not even going to try to do the math.

 

[GrainneDhu]

I am not sleuthing parents because I personally feel they are innocent. I do have a question that I'm hoping someone could answer. I must have missed something along the way. If DM backed out of a plea deal the day before the girls went missing and decided to go to trial and risk YEARS in prison why would this be suspicious of the girls disappearance? If he was being threatened by people he narc'ed on didn't he comply? Like if they said we are gonna take your kid if don't remove yourself from the plea deal then he did that, right? So why would the kids be abducted related to that if he in fact did back out of the plea deal?? I probably have something screwed up or didn't understand something. Please, no darts, just clear that up for me. TIA

That's what I have been saying all along.

Plea deal is bad for others implicated in the meth trade.

Not guilty and going to trial is good for other implicated in the meth trade.

 

[SapphireSteel]

Elizabeth and Lyric's case reminds me so much of the Lyon sisters' case (except of course, that Elizabeth and Lyric are cousins, not sisters).
Sometimes 2 girls are abducted together. I hope I am wrong, but I think the girls in both cases were taken by a sick sexual predator who took both at the same time. Probably convinced them to go with him (at least at first).

Sheila and Katherine Lyon - Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community

The Lyon girls were seen with their abductor.

Times were different then...I sincerely doubt they had received "stranger danger" coaching like Lizzie and Lyric had.

Hitchhiking was far more common then and the Lyons girls probably jumped in voluntarily.

:moo:

 

[ktgirl]

I think Carlie was very afraid but afraid to show she was afraid. Maybe she thought if she did as he said he would let her go. She looks very confused to me. I respectfully disagree. Fear can make someone unable to think clearly.....unable to absorb what is happening to them until it is too late..paralizing them causing them to be unable to react until it is too late. Some will try to run away but there are many cases where they did not and they were much older than Carlie or these children. Carlie is not the only one that didnt scream or kick but complied instead.

Respectfully snipped by me. Seems to me children and adults are often abducted by being covinced to go somewhere or to go see something with someone because they don't want to be rude when approaced by a stranger. I think I see this in Carlie's video - she looks unsure how to react and scared, but supressing it so he won't know she's scared.

I am reminded of a quote by the serial killer character from the film "The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo"
“Why don’t people trust their instincts, they know something’s wrong, but the fear of offending is stronger than the fear of pain.”

 

[Sunlight]

My theory is increasingly simple. The girls biked to the lake, passing the cctv, and they arrived at the trail where they were ambushed and abducted by someone who was there...then they were taken away either on foot or by a vehicle, because there was plenty of time until 3:58 for them to have been escorted, carried, driven, or dragged away. I think they are somewhere in the general area, and I do not think they have survived. Obviously, I want to be completely wrong. JMHO

 

[artzypantz]

Meth users are usually only focussed on one thing - getting more meth.

They become scattered, illogical, unable even to accomplish basic tasks like hygiene.

This appears to have been a very well organised abduction. It is extremely unusual for two children to be taken, for ANY reason.

Please do not bring up the Groenes as this is completely different - that was an abduction as a side effect of murder, the perp had time and a vehicle, plus was acting in a very isolated scene.

I sincerely doubt that the abduction of two children has been successfully orchestrated by meth associates trying to put pressure on anyone.

If nothing else, tweakers are LAZY. They can barely think beyond the next score, let alone plan and execute a flawless abduction in the middle of town in the random hope it will place pressure on someone who is also affected by meth, therefore clearly prioritising the drug over his family anyway.

Not bashing the family...it is a fact that neither parent took physical care or responsibility for Lyric, nor had they for some years.

I completely agree with all of your post! Very well said!

However, the BBM above, I have NO idea what you are talking about here and don't believe i brought up anything concerning this since i have NOT a clue.

MOO
ArtzyPantz

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Because these aren't rational people we are dealing with. YOU might not make the choice to kidnap kids, but drug dealers don't care about getting in trouble. They care about money, territory and revenge. They usually hire an underling to do the dirty work. That underling is usually an addict who will do LITERALLY ANYTHING for money. Did you see the movie Savages? Great film, and it shows just what kind of despicable things drug dealers do all the time without batting an eyelash.

For the record, I don't think that is what happened. But it is definitely possible and we shouldn't rule it out because WE wouldn't do it.

I know absolutely nothing when it comes to drugs or drug dealers. So please dont laugh at this question.

How often do they kidnap children? It seems to me as brutal as they are supposed to be they would simply shoot the person that they felt snitched on them in order to make a statement that this is what happens when anyone talks.

If this was to make a statement by drug dealers then I dont think it worked. Even LE said they are wondering if they were taken by a RSO. It seems if that is who has them they would want everyone to know it because if not then how does everyone get the message?

IMO

 

[SapphireSteel]

I completely agree with all of your post! Very well said!

However, the BBM above, I have NO idea what you are talking about here and don't believe i brought up anything concerning this since i have NOT a clue.

MOO
ArtzyPantz

Not you!

Every time I have stated that abduction of two children is highly unusual the Groene case is brought up as an argument.

They are inherently different, like the Lyons sisters.

I am just trying to cut the protests off ahead of time!

My opinion only of course.