Found Deceased IA - Mollie Tibbetts, 20, Poweshiek County, 19 Jul 2018 #18

[PommyMommy]

How about these two?
Mollie is a "creature of habit"
Dalton sent her a text in the morning and Mollie did not respond.

• Mollie's jogging clothing and devices are missing
• she has about 3 different routes and likes to mix them up
• the dogs were in the basement
• Dalton said the door was probably unlocked
• she was seen running East on Pershing towards the Funeral Home
• she was seen at the Funeral Home
• she typically picks up the car at her mom's house before dark
• she went for a run at 7:30
• she usually runs for 45 minutes
• LE reconstructed her run, relying on Fitbit data, cell phone pings and eyewitnesses
• a digital signal led police to the Guernsey farm area
• video was collected from various businesses
• Mollie's mom was asked by FBI if Mollie was "in a home" at 9:45
• she may have done homework (time unknown & unconfirmed)
• Snapchat appeared to be indoors & taken that day, viewed at 10PM
• Mollie was a creature of habit
• Dalton sent her a text in the morning and she did not respond

 

[sun16]

Mollie's mom said she last talked to Mollie at 7:30 pm on the night of July 18th and that she told her she was going for a run. I believe that she was last seen at 7:45pm jogging. Neighbor also said that LE told him that she made it home from that jog safely and then did homework and presumably sent a snapchat to Dalton which would make sense. Some media articles reported that she only went on a 15 minute jog that evening. I can see her cutting her jog short if she knew she had homework to turn in before she went to her mom's for dinner. So go home 7:50, homework and snapchat. Since running clothes are still missing let's assume she didn't change or shower because she wanted to get to her mother's before dark. She probably left DJ's home no earlier that 8:30 but possibly as late as 9 or 9:15 depending on how long the homework took. If she left that late then she would definitely walking to mom's house in the dusk/dark, and someone who had been stalking her could easily have taken that opportunity.

If all this is true, was the plan to have dinner at mom’s at 8:45pm or after? I wonder if that is a normal dinner timeframe for her/them. Or if MT just grabbed food often whenever. Seems kind of late.

 

[InvSmith]

H

Every day I come home to more threads but not really any new info or Mollie...How about the cell phone - has LE said anything about finding it? or it's last known place?

Her Mother indicated today no phone, earbuds, Fitbit or running clothes accounted for...

 

[Deleted member 227095]

It is interesting. Would she have gone by the hardware store on the way to her mom's? Could the damage to the door ( shattered glass in lower R hand corner) be from a struggle with Mollie's abductor? Are there any cameras near there? I wish I could ask that question at the presser!

Interesting theory. MSM photos of hardware store just show the shattered glass. But photos from non-MSM sources also show grafitti. If you search non-MSM sources I think you will see that if the grafitti happened at the same time the door glass was smashed that is was unlikely related to MT disappearance.

 

[MsBetsy]

When LE gets a data dump from the cell towers, as they typically do, and say the abductor(s) also has a cell phone, the LE can match pings triangulated to MTs last known location with any pings from any phones in the same near vicinity at the same time. This is possible by a method of what amounts to reverse triangulation. For instance, you could use the records to find find all phones with a certain ping speed, given phone and carrier and with a margin of error, that would match MT’s last pinged location to a particular tower. You would then do this for two more towers. You then combine the data of all the sources, look for the appropriate overlap, and see what phones match. Even given a margin of error, it would give you a reasonable list of phones to isolate. Of course, somebody could be using a burner phone or a stolen phone.

Everything done through the towers is logged so, for example, LE could do a regression analysis to find phones that are not usually in the area based on the numbers they find in their investigation, which could indicate some outsider suspect. With a town of 1500, it would not be too difficult to isolate a small pool of people of interest this way.

OK, but wouldn't the perpetrator have the phone turned off? As well as some other people?

 

[Mom24]

Inside Edition? It's considered mainstream media (MSM), but as to its reliability, that varies by story, in my opinion. However, they often have video that shows the terrain or the surrounding area when they cover true crime cases, and I find that helpful in many cases. Sometimes they also interview witnesses on the show. I would say it's no more or less reliable than any syndicated "infotainment" show.

Quite honestly, with the rush to publish every news organizations accuracy and reliability varies by story. Having been the subject many times of misprinted or out of context quotes, I can say it's frustrating.

 

[NewYork625]

I suspect no LE person.

Do you think she left willingly or was abducted? Do you know if the person is missing?

 

[rosesfromangels]

No. That would be against the WS rules. I have contacted the tipline with this info and the FBI has been made aware of this info. They probably already knew it and as I said before, odds are I am wrong with my suspect. For their sake, I hope I am.

Ahhh....I see, o.k. Well you never know. Good for you for turning in a tip. LE can sort it out.

 

[tokyorose]

That is a very difficult question.

You could draw a 25 mile radius -- which gives us 50 miles. That may or may not include Cedar Rapids. So cleverly you have over 200,000-250,000 people in your radius.

Things I know:
- There are some nasty drug rings in the area. Used to be Belle Plaine the worst. Maybe I should not say, but this is a long time ago...however one of my best friends was an undercover narc agent. He was hired to assassinate someone from the area (of course he had a wire on). So there is hard core crime activity.
- There was a trafficking ring active in Williamsburg again 20 years ago (?). Perp caught. Twin Cities connection. So that establishes that trafficking is not unheard of.
- One could likely find well over 200 people on the 'offenders database' within your 50 mile diameter
- There are some pretty sick people around there, who have fixations, some for women
- Again, the book Methland was written about small town Iowa
- Past cases of disappearances are not rare - not frequent but not unheard of
- I-80 bring all kind of people with every deviant background you can think of and some you cannot

I talked myself into raising my hand

Would traffickers ever pay someone.. say a local to kidnap a local girl and then they would have a "pick up " spot? Local wouldn't attract any attention and then an exchange is made a bit further away?

 

[Stormy21]

Me but I'll expand the radius to 50 miles.

That's 100 miles. Now you have Linn Co, part of Black Hawk, Johnson, and almost to Des Moines. Alot more people.

 

[Mom24]

Being an avid jogger all of my life. I live in Southern CA and am a big chicken I never would have jogged that rural road by myself especially at night much less in a populated area at night. Maybe with a friend and big dogs. I never leave anywhere without my pepper spray. Mollie must be a brave girl. Kids today just too free and easy no worries in the world they don’t believe there are bad people in this world. I even tell my adult sons that and they laugh at me.

Box cutter. Slash and run, and it's easy to conceal in your hand. It's a sad world but as a woman we're prey and the men in our life just don't get it.

 

[jillycat]

I don't believe she took her own life, is/was pregnant, or is in the custody of someone she knows, or was acquainted with, who was crushing on her and now doesn't know what to do. I don't believe that she encountered a person in distress and reached out, and the tables turned on her and became violent. And I don't believe she had a secret life or hidden deep depression that no one knew about. I've read her Twitter and it's unremarkable in my opinion. Her interactions with others on her social media appears routine and typical to me.

I don't buy into her psych interests or studies or her references to mental health issues/suicide on her Twitter as having anything to do with her own frame of mind. I'm a heavy Twitter user and see a lot of prevention culture's memes and hashtags retweeted and repeated on other people's feeds, and this increases dramatically every time there is a celebrity suicide or a heavily reported child suicide. Nothing she tweeted is alarming or indicative of suicidal ideation, from where I'm sitting. Discussion of "mental health" on social media is also very common because it's a trending topic in our society.

So, sadly, her absence appears to be the result of a crime against her, and while I'd like to be entirely wrong, I believe she's deceased and think she was killed by an opportunist perpetrator/predator somewhere on the jog or some other lone activity that evening that we can't see into.

I also think the FBI presence only indicates (at the very least) LE's belief that she was taken against her will. We had a similar case in my city where a woman disappeared from her office while working late (although there was evidence in the office that someone else had been there) and the FBI was quickly involved. Also, as far as who has jurisdiction and control, recall that in the Delphi case, local LE stated clearly that the investigation was still under its control, and FBI was contributing specialized resources to assist local/county/state agencies.

I've heard so many stories and reports of the timeline and who saw her when and where, I don't really have a clear picture of the geography/distance she might have traveled and where a likely abduction point would be, or what time. But as I understand it, she was known to be alive and walking at 7:30 p.m. on the 18th, and there is apparently a statement by her family that LE knows she was doing homework from the BF's house even later? Someone help me out with that last part.

Also, does it make sense that she was going for dinner as late as 8:30-9:00 or so? And has the mother given any info on a timeline provided by Mollie as to when she expected to arrive for dinner? Not questioning the mother's story, just can't keep up with everything the family has said, and whether or not Mom even had a sense of an arrival time. Sometimes "dinner" doesn't mean sitting down at a particular time, it means 'cooking brats tonight, come on over when you're free, see you then'. Thanks for any clarification!

 

[rosesfromangels]

How many of us here who think MT's disappearance is a result of foul play believe the perp is a local, say, somebody who lives within a 25-mile radius? (Raises hand).

No more than 10 miles - max. More like 5 or under at most.

 

[Deleted member 227458]

This is why knowing Mollie's habits and typical routine would be extremely helpful. Everyone is different. I would have removed my shoes immediately upon entering my house, because I don't wear shoes indoors. Someone else might have gone to the kitchen for some ice water. Another person would head straight for the shower. Mollie's mom lived a mile away. That's maybe a 15 min brisk walk for a fit 20-year old woman.

Yes, yes, yes. This! Would she normally shower and/or change clothes right after her evening run or wait until later on/the next morning? The best predictor of future (or current) behavior is past behavior.

 

[Deleted member 227095]

Very specific location though. And you do not say why you specify that location. I would think any place in Brooklyn is likely to not raise much suspicion unless there is a nuke there.

Here is why I ask: This drone from Fox, who might not know a dang thing, shows a totally different route. It shows a very rural route for jogging.
Mollie Tibbetts' disappearance thrusts Brooklyn, Iowa into spotlight

Your hypothesis is 180 from the drone. And I bet you know the area far better than Fox.

The Fox drone footage was definately strange in that it took off in the opposite direction down her street vs how she was usually seen running. Then the Fox drone turned around and returned to pass BF house if I recall. It was a very strange piece of footage so I wonder if the person was just learning how to fly a drone? If you go and do what others here have done which is use google to 'jog' her typical route then its much easier to get a sense of her route and what was passed at each step of the journey. I also think we have had comments about how she was a creature of habit and had 3 routes she liked to take and it seemed she also didn't like running in/around corn fields and stayed mainly in town.

 

[BelleIsle]

I just had a thought that maybe someone confided something personal to Mollie and later regretted doing so, that or she witnessed something during her jog (or at another time) that someone did not want revealed. It would have to be something that substantially threatened either their reputation or ego. Add this to my 10,000 theories. I do think any initial scenario likely involves a person or persons she was somewhat acquainted with. Remember Jenise Wright? Her killer was walking amongst the community and no one seemed to care that he was covered in scratches. Someone knows something.

 

[wary]

What I find fishy is that WC doesn’t remember what they asked him. Really??

Well, I think he's not telling the truth, but I don't find it fishy. Why in the world would he answer a question like that? (Obviously, it would have been wiser to slam the door in the face of the journalists, in the first place.)

 

[Q.E.D.]

OK, but wouldn't the perpetrator have the phone turned off? As well as some other people?

Do you know? I don’t. How smart was this person or people? And, if it was in fact a crime of opportunity (i.e., a creep simply spots MT and decides to go for it), he might not have had the time at the point of abduction.

Of course, it is possible it was off, or out of power, or that it was a burner phone, or that he didn’t even have a phone at all. It also possible he could have panicked and tossed both his and her phone at some point, afraid he may be tracked.

 

[KaaBoom]

Everything done through the towers is logged so, for example, LE could do a regression analysis to find phones that are not usually in the area based on the numbers they find in their investigation, which could indicate some outsider suspect. With a town of 1500, it would not be too difficult to isolate a small pool of people of interest this way.

Yes, but as someone else pointed out that would include every person who drove down the Interstate that day. Which would be at least 50,000 motorist, plus every other cell phone that was not only in town, but within 45 miles of the tower. Cell phones ping upto 45 miles way. They would need to contact 50,000 to 100,000 cell phone users and find out why they were in the area. Many may not be cooperative.

Theoretically they should be able to find a suspect that way, but it has never been successful in any case I have followed.

 

[Stormy21]

Would traffickers ever pay someone.. say a local to kidnap a local girl and then they would have a "pick up " spot? Local wouldn't attract any attention and then an exchange is made a bit further away?

Tough. I suppose I could call up my friend, who got out of the undercover narc business.

IDK about that. Over the years I can think of everything. Paying traffickers sounds far out.

People have paid assassins. Didn't an Engineering Prof do that to his wife?

(there was also a guy who went to Chicago, stabbed himself to get out of trouble, then reported he was mugged to the police in Chi town)

With a 50 mile radius you have roughly 500,000 people, maybe more. You are going to be able to get any drug you want, any deviant practice you want, and meet about any kind of criminal you want. That sounds surprising doesn't it.