Found Deceased IA - Mollie Tibbetts, 20, Poweshiek County, 19 Jul 2018 #26

[crumbcleaner]

Video footage is usually black and white, and depending on distance, pretty difficult to pinpoint fine details.

Where are ya'll seeing that she is on video jogging? Or are you speaking hypothetically?

 

[MassGuy]

The 5 p.m. to 10 p.m. is a time bracket that puts MT's last known "confirmed" sighting, around 7:30 p.m., squarely in the middle. (Maybe later, 8? or 9?, by subsequent reports). I'm sure that LE has her timeline for that evening down cold (as they have assured us), based on eye witness accounts and digital data. We can now feel confident that she went missing between 7:30 and 10:00 p.m., the evening of the 18th, a 2 1/2 hour window. She should have made it to her mother's no later than 8:30 pm, to eat dinner, and to pick up the car and a red work shirt for the next day. This implies that she was taken on her run, usually 45 minutes in length, likely closer to 8 p.m. than 9 p.m. Her mother's MSM statement that MT's running clothes, shoes and other gear have not been found at MT's residences tends to bear this out. The issues about the contact lenses/eyeglasses and early LE leaks about homework being done later in the evening have been explained, in detail, in many posts above. But, you are right, this time line implies that she was taken during her run, while looping back to her mom's, while it was still light out. Sunset that day was around 8:41 p.m., with another half hour of civil twilight it would have been light until a bit after 9 p.m., and she would have likely been taken by 8:30 p.m. That evening, you would have been required to put your headlights on at no later than 9:11 p.m. in Brooklyn, IA.

It is possible for a two person team, using the ubiquitous (white) panel contractor's van (or contract delivery van) with a sliding passenger side cargo door, to snatch and grab a music distracted runner in less than 30 seconds without having to actually stop the van (a rolling stop and go). Unless you were actually positioned to watch it happen, from behind the van or on the passenger side of the van, she would simply be there one moment, and then gone the next as the van rolled on. The observation by DR that she may have been running with a pony tail would make it even easier to do this. There is even a genre of "Rape Van" *advertiser censored* that encourages this fantasy, and which demonstrates this maneuver (you can find anything on the web). Yes, taking someone while it is still light out IS a bold move. Unfortunately, in this circumstance, fortune might well favor the bold as MT is missing, and we still don't know for sure how it happened. MOO

Great post. I’ll just add one scenario that allows for a lone abductor. A lone individual in any type of vehicle, sees Mollie running. He pulls slightly ahead, around a turn or in some sort of blind spot. He waits for her to approach and quickly overpowers her. He perhaps uses zip ties or duct tape to quickly bind her (there’s lots of alternatives here). He then throws her into the trunk or back seat and drives away.

 

[Confusion]

Investigators said that Mollie was last seen on W. Pershing Dr., but if we were to include the sighting on 2nd Street, this might be her intended route. I remember looking at the last leg of this route when she first went missing and hoping that she did not run along that stretch of the road.

Is this what you were thinking?

Yes, that she continued down 2nd Street to the 385th turn off, and then took that back to the house. It would make it pretty close to a 45 minute run. MOO

 

[NewYork625]

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[BIC]

How do scavenging birds locate carcasses? If it's by sight, then they might not see a body in a thickly growing corn field.
The odor would be strong but only for a certain distance. Outside a given radius, the odor might not be powerful enough to overcome that of manure, pesticides, hogs. etc.
Is it safe to assume that there would still be a strong odor from a very shallow grave? How deep would a body have to be buried for the odor to be undetectable above ground?

This is an interesting article on how Turkey Vultures find dead animals.
Study shows turkey vulture is doubly blessed with acute vision and sense of smell

Experts estimate that Cathartes aura, or the turkey vulture, can detect the scent of rotting flesh in concentrations as tiny as a few parts per billion in the air. “They track plumes of odor from decaying animals while gliding high up in the air column and home in on it by flying in circles,” explains Gary Graves, an ornithologist in the Division of Birds at the Smithsonian’s National Museum of Natural History. “They go ‘upstream’ to the densest part of the olfactory gradient–it gets stronger and stronger–until they find the source. Their sense of smell is so acute that they can even locate hidden food, say something as small as a dead rat under a pile of leaves, Graves says.

 

[GussiedCanoodler]

Yes, that she continued down 2nd Street to the 385th turn off, and then took that back to the house. It would make it pretty close to a 45 minute run. MOO

I apologize in advance for asking questions as I have been out of town and am not completely up to date with everything, but where is everyone getting the 45 minute run? Also, how did FBI determine W. Pershing Dr? I tried to read all the past posts but there are so many it's overwhelming and I can't figure anything out
. I also tried reading news stories but other than the FBI saying she was last seen on W. Pershing Dr I can not find anything else about her run. When I was last in town and reading on this case, a neighbor had just said they may have been the last one to see her.

Sorry again for the questions, I know I am not adding anything helpful to the discussion!

 

[NewYork625]

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[margarita25]

What's been nagging at me is the fact that they are questioning 5 pm - 10 pm. What's peculiar is that generally it doesn't get dark around here until 9:30-9:45 usually. (I'm less than 3 hours from Brooklyn) So how in the world is someone going to nab someone in daylight? I'm just so confused as each day passes.

Sigh...I know what you mean...but Jessica Ridgeway was abducted in broad daylight in the morning in a residential neighborhood where the houses are soooo close together, and others would have been leaving for work, going to work, walking their dogs...as I’ve mentioned many times before in other threads, I’ve stood in the exact spot from where she was abducted and can’t believe how nobody saw anything. It happens, unfortunately. All it takes is a few seconds, I’ve seen this in other abduction surveillance videos released publicly...So, because of this personal experience as related to Jessica, I never personally consider this a factor in abductions (lack of witnesses), and again, people are less aware of their surroundings these sad due to cellphones, etc, moo.
(Sorry to old members who have to hear my same stories over and over again, there are new members here, I dont mean to sound like a broken record.)

(ETA: it’s obvious to me yesterday’s PC has really touched a nerve with me. I mean cmon, out of all the things they can say, they are saying pretty much what LE said at JR’s and A and L’s PCs. Quite disturbing. LE chooses their words very carefully.)

(ETA: the more I think about it, the more I interpret LE’s words as being that they have not ruled out the possibility of a random abduction and serial killer. Moo. stay “vigilant” (I specifically called that one, remember?)...and “may have (insert long list of potential indicators)”. Bad feeling.

 

[GussiedCanoodler]

This is an interesting article on how Turkey Vultures find dead animals.
Study shows turkey vulture is doubly blessed with acute vision and sense of smell

Experts estimate that Cathartes aura, or the turkey vulture, can detect the scent of rotting flesh in concentrations as tiny as a few parts per billion in the air. “They track plumes of odor from decaying animals while gliding high up in the air column and home in on it by flying in circles,” explains Gary Graves, an ornithologist in the Division of Birds at the Smithsonian’s National Museum of Natural History. “They go ‘upstream’ to the densest part of the olfactory gradient–it gets stronger and stronger–until they find the source. Their sense of smell is so acute that they can even locate hidden food, say something as small as a dead rat under a pile of leaves, Graves says.

I am by no means an expert on turkey vultures but I live in a pretty wooded area where deer and other animals are struck fairly often. Sometimes I can smell the animal, sometimes I can't, but you can ALWAYS see the mass of turkey vultures even from far away. Like you said from this information, I have seen them surround areas where I can not see/smell anything deceased, but they certainly can!

 

[Confusion]

I apologize in advance for asking questions as I have been out of town and am not completely up to date with everything, but where is everyone getting the 45 minute run? Also, how did FBI determine W. Pershing Dr? I tried to read all the past posts but there are so many it's overwhelming and I can't figure anything out
. I also tried reading news stories but other than the FBI saying she was last seen on W. Pershing Dr I can not find anything else about her run. When I was last in town and reading on this case, a neighbor had just said they may have been the last one to see her.

Sorry again for the questions, I know I am not adding anything helpful to the discussion!

The family said from the beginning that she usually ran for about 45 minutes every evening. I believe the W. Pershing Dr, sighting was the neighbor who saw her at/near the beginning of her run (about 7:30), but I'm guessing the other sightings haven't been confirmed. MOO

 

[pamelado2]

The last known location of Mollie was on W. Pershing Dr., so I think that would be the most significant location. Three locations seem related to travel corridors in and out of Brooklyn. The fifth location (lower right) is probably related to a digital signature.

I don't know how we can say "last known" as LE hasn't released anything. The closest we get, in my opinion is West because that's where LE told the owner of the home that MT passed by. If we go by statements of neighbors then in my opinion it was 2nd - which was backed up by the interest LE has in the car wash.

 

[CuriousCricket]

I'm not sure what you mean. Police searching farms and acreages near Guernsey, where one man has some criminal history, is a pattern with what, or in what sense?

Thanks, Otto, you've already answered this -- in a way. I was seeing the ping near Guernsey and the searching and lie detector test of one man as having been a researched and planned set up to mis-lead LE. You've already said you see it as a coincidence.

Sometimes I get on a roll . . .

 

[mtnlites]

I sure hope that the tips are related to the request made by investigators, and not personal theories or suggestions about how investigators might do their jobs.

Assuming that the tips are related to what locals observed on July 18 between 5-10PM, I am optimistic that they should be able to sift through the information and solve Mollie's disappearance.

My cousin is LE in the Delphi area and was put on the A& L case in the very beginning (he has since been assigned to another task force, though he still works with those who are on the case). He said that out of the 20,000 or 30,000 tips, only a very small percentage (talking barely out of single digits) are actual tips with info. By far, the majority have been web-based, from people outside of Indiana, sending in their personal theories or asking things like, "Have you thought about questioning school workers/neighbors/garbage men/etc?" I can only imagine how time consuming and frustrating that must be. When they say they want tips, they mean something like, "My boyfriend/husband/neighbor/dog walker/drug runner who lives 10 miles from the crime scene came home that night smelling like bleach, drops of blood on his shoes, and carrying a woman's bracelet that he claims to have found."

 

[jillycat]

I concur. It’s the only way to retain hope at this point. If someone who knows her has abducted her, then she still may be alive. It’s less likely that she is alive, if any other scenario is entertained. It’s not likely in general, IMO.

And, in a parent's mind, giving up hope equals giving up on your child who may need you to hold that hope for them, and a parent will not abandon hope until there's proof. In the mind/soul of her mother and father, abandoning hope is abandoning Mollie. I've lost a child. These protective instincts are a primal stoic force that often have less to do with denial and more to do with it's just wired that way.

 

[DizzyB]

Where are ya'll seeing that she is on video jogging? Or are you speaking hypothetically?

Totally hypothetical-getting into the conversation about highlighted areas potentially having cameras, and if Mollie was recorded, LE still not releasing color of clothing she was wearing (hypothetically due to black/white, low light conditions, etc).

 

[MsBetsy]

BBM...I hate to even type this, but my guess is that Mollie was dead within just a few hours of her disappearance, and perhaps even sooner. Nothing to base that on, other than gut. JMO

That's what I have always suspected as well, but Mollies dad certainly sounds convincing. He is certainly succeeding in what he is trying to do.

 

[MassGuy]

And, in a parent's mind, giving up hope equals giving up on your child who may need you to hold that hope for them, and a parent will not abandon hope until there's proof. In the mind/soul of her mother and father, abandoning hope is abandoning Mollie. I've lost a child. These protective instincts are a primal stoic force that often have less to do with denial and more to do with it's just wired that way.

Absolutely true, which is why we see parents behave this way, time and time again. I absolutely admire them in every way, and hope like everyone else here, this turns out well.

 

[jillycat]

My cousin is LE in the Delphi area and was put on the A& L case in the very beginning (he has since been assigned to another task force, though he still works with those who are on the case). He said that out of the 20,000 or 30,000 tips, only a very small percentage (talking barely out of single digits) are actual tips with info. By far, the majority have been web-based, from people outside of Indiana, sending in their personal theories or asking things like, "Have you thought about questioning school workers/neighbors/garbage men/etc?" I can only imagine how time consuming and frustrating that must be. When they say they want tips, they mean something like, "My boyfriend/husband/neighbor/dog walker/drug runner who lives 10 miles from the crime scene came home that night smelling like bleach, drops of blood on his shoes, and carrying a woman's bracelet that he claims to have found."

My son used to call people like this 'Great Idea Fairies'.

 

[borndem]

Investigators said that Mollie was last seen on W. Pershing Dr., but if we were to include the sighting on 2nd Street, this might be her intended route. I remember looking at the last leg of this route when she first went missing and hoping that she did not run along that stretch of the road.

Is this what you were thinking?

Great map of her jogging route, otto! You have always been so kind to do these things for us. A picture is truly worth a thousand words.

 

[GussiedCanoodler]

The family said from the beginning that she usually ran for about 45 minutes every evening. I believe the W. Pershing Dr, sighting was the neighbor who saw her at/near the beginning of her run (about 7:30), but I'm guessing the other sightings haven't been confirmed. MOO

Oh, okay, thank you! I just wanted to make sure I was not missing any info or if the LE had released anything else. Thank you!