Found Deceased IN - Abigail (Abby) Williams, 13, & Liberty (Libby) German, 14, The Delphi Murders 13 Feb 2017 #135

[somequestions]

fine
however ... if they weren't close at all.. they might deviate from the right course right ?
like for ex.. if profile says mostly local.. and they keep focusing on the local theory
and whats with the refusal to release the profile because its considered part of evidence ...

I agree. In my opinion, sometimes cases get hindered by the fact that the "profile" LE is following is wrong, whether that be regarding the description, which could include the age or ethnicity, or where the offender lives or how educated or un-educated they are.

Is that happening in this case? I do not know, but I am sure that the response will be that the "profile" is a secret(except for that part about the second sketch and what was said about it at the second press conference).

 

[Yemelyan]

I think we have a different opinion about what a profile can include. I think a profile can include a description. If a profile said LE was looking for a white middle-aged man who is uneducated, that is a description within a profile. In my opinion a profile can have many different facets from physical description to geographic area to human behavioral traits. I would hope that most profiles would include a description about who LE thinks the person is who committed the crime or what are they looking for???? If you do not know who you are looking for, how are you going to find them?

This is a forum for discussion so I submitted my partial "profile" of Abby and Libby's killer. This is my opinion. I know I cannot come up with a complete profile because I do not know all the information LE knows about the case.

I think LE needs to stay away from labeling the killer. Or else, for example, any crime that happens against a child within a 60 mile area of Delphi is going to have everyone thinking each time that the bridge guy has finally been caught. I think it is better to focus on the details that make this case different from other cases.

I think we do have a different idea of what a profile is and how it is developed.

You asked, if you do not know who you are looking for, how are you going to find them? I would submit that a profile isn't developed in order to take LE from "no idea who did this" to "this is the person responsible." It's a tool to narrow the focus on a possible pool of suspects that they already have. It's used for linkage analysis, aka "the person who did this crime may have also committed these other crimes." And it's used to look at "of this short list of possible suspects, which ones fit some of these behavioral characteristics so we can further look into this person or persons." As behavioralists use it, they are looking at offender behaviors and interactions and that's the focus. JMO

 

[Yemelyan]

fine
however ... if they weren't close at all.. they might deviate from the right course right ?
like for ex.. if profile says mostly local.. and they keep focusing on the local theory
and whats with the refusal to release the profile because its considered part of evidence ...

I'll address my opinion on your last question first....if you're thinking that the profile is just stuff like "he's older than 40," "he might be local," "he's probably familiar with the trail system," "he's uneducated," then yes, that would make no sense why LE couldn't release the entire profile. But the profile is developed primarily from 1. what he did when he encountered the victims and 2. pre- and post-mortem behaviors at the crime scene itself. So these are the exact same factors LE in Delphi have been holding back since the beginning of the case. It makes no sense that they'd release a profile that goes in depth into what all these behaviors were. It's the exact opposite of what their strategy has been since the beginning. If you disagree with the hold back strategy, then that's another discussion but the profile is based on exactly these things that have been held back. I don't know of any investigation where the full, unedited profile has been released to the public before the apprehension of the suspect. Possibly some are out there but IMO it's rare and what you're usually getting is a partial profile of what LE want to share. Remember the profile doesn't exist so that the public can help find a killer. It's to narrow the focus on suspects that LE develops through the usual investigative strategies.

To address your question of, what if the profile is wrong? Obviously it could be wrong. Elements of it will be subjective even though it's based on psychological research and offender behavioral statistics. However, IMO there is not any LE agency that takes a profile and uses it as the gospel, end-all-be-all directive. It's one tool out of many that they are using. I also think that the profile could be refined and updated over time as more evidence or intelligence comes to light. I don't think it's a static document. JMO.

 

[minazoe]

I think we have a different opinion about what a profile can include. I think a profile can include a description. If a profile said LE was looking for a white middle-aged man who is uneducated, that is a description within a profile. In my opinion a profile can have many different facets from physical description to geographic area to human behavioral traits. I would hope that most profiles would include a description about who LE thinks the person is who committed the crime or what are they looking for???? If you do not know who you are looking for, how are you going to find them?

This is a forum for discussion so I submitted my partial "profile" of Abby and Libby's killer. This is my opinion. I know I cannot come up with a complete profile because I do not know all the information LE knows about the case.

I think LE needs to stay away from labeling the killer. Or else, for example, any crime that happens against a child within a 60 mile area of Delphi is going to have everyone thinking each time that the bridge guy has finally been caught. I think it is better to focus on the details that make this case different from other cases.

How many men do we actually have in a 60 mile radius that match the height , weight, shoe size , build, gait and voice that are strangling, beating up and raping little girls...and when I say strangling I mean crushing their windpipes and causing burst blood vessels? how many in a sixty mile radius can crush and kill within minutes, can kill and practically shape shift by shaving their face and changing their hair.?.how many in a 60 mile radius can tackle that bridge like a chunky ballerina dressed as a mail man? how many are there??

think about it awhile..he either fits or he doesn't and he does fit..he fits. perfectly.

mOO

 

[minazoe]

I just want to add that the video is deceptive, somehow the angle and the lack of any thing to
show scale, the man in the video looks tall..or large..but he isn't...he's a short man with small feet..The bulky jacket is holding items..the long jeans elongate his legs..Many tv actors are or were short in the day..the fit well in the frame and many wouldn't know until you see them in real life.. BG is not a big old guy...

 

[helenann2k]

Since we've circled back to BG video, I can't help repeating this. We have an actual photo/video of the killer, period. Is it a great photo? No, but it is daylight, we see clothing, height, etc. Is it a great video? No, but we see a possible manor of walking, moving. I think that ONLY the photo/video should have been released, without any sketches that just caused confusion due to discrepancies. I've seen many, many worse photos that resulted in the capture of a suspect. Those grainy, black and white photos from overhead security cameras that often lead to apprehension of burglars. My own opinion is that LE has no idea who it is. They have evidence but no suspect to link it to. I'm not against LE at all, but at this point, bringing in a new team, or even one new person to start the investigation over, might make a difference.

 

[k-mac]

Since we've circled back to BG video, I can't help repeating this. We have an actual photo/video of the killer, period. Is it a great photo? No, but it is daylight, we see clothing, height, etc. Is it a great video? No, but we see a possible manor of walking, moving. I think that ONLY the photo/video should have been released, without any sketches that just caused confusion due to discrepancies. I've seen many, many worse photos that resulted in the capture of a suspect. Those grainy, black and white photos from overhead security cameras that often lead to apprehension of burglars. My own opinion is that LE has no idea who it is. They have evidence but no suspect to link it to. I'm not against LE at all, but at this point, bringing in a new team, or even one new person to start the investigation over, might make a difference.

100% agree
Those sketches are not helpful.

 

[Ursamajr]

I just want to add that the video is deceptive, somehow the angle and the lack of any thing to
show scale, the man in the video looks tall..or large..but he isn't...he's a short man with small feet..The bulky jacket is holding items..the long jeans elongate his legs..

I think there's a good chance that the estimation of his height is accurate. In Libby's video, you can see which railroad tie BG is standing on and you can see where the trees line up with the bridge. You can stage a photo with someone standing on the same tie with the background lined up. I would use Snapchat for this to make sure the depth of field is similar to the original pic/video taken of BG. You can gauge BGs height off of the individual in the pic. I would think.

 

[Arethahamilton]

i have a question

 

[SMK777]

i have a question

What is it ?

 

[SMK777]

think about it awhile..he either fits or he doesn't and he does fit..he fits. perfectly.

Yes, in many striking ways he’s a fit. I do have some reservations…

Do you think IF he is in fact BG, that LE will be able to find a definitive link, and if so, what do you imagine it would be likely to be?

 

[Inthedetails]

How many men do we actually have in a 60 mile radius that match the height , weight, shoe size , build, gait and voice that are strangling, beating up and raping little girls...and when I say strangling I mean crushing their windpipes and causing burst blood vessels? how many in a sixty mile radius can crush and kill within minutes, can kill and practically shape shift by shaving their face and changing their hair.?.how many in a 60 mile radius can tackle that bridge like a chunky ballerina dressed as a mail man? how many are there??

think about it awhile..he either fits or he doesn't and he does fit..he fits. perfectly.

mOO

This is a very good point that I think gets overlooked.

There are plenty of men who fit the general description of BG, including men willing to commit crimes. But how many men are actually willing to commit MURDER of a stranger?

That's a huge consideration, imo. You can be a menace of a man, but still not willing to deliberately murder.

The pool is not any man or even any man who commits sexual assaults or any man who gets violent with women....but man willing to murder as the part of the purpose of the crime.

jmo

 

[Barbieshell]

Yes, in many striking ways he’s a fit. I do have some reservations…

Do you think IF he is in fact BG, that LE will be able to find a definitive link, and if so, what do you imagine it would be likely to be?

It's got to be either positive identification from the "witnesses", phone data / vehicle that places him in the immediate area, recovery of clothing / murder weapon / memento's from the crime scene recoverable from his property etc. I don't think they have enough DNA but you never know.....and perhaps a confession with a full account (but I think this would be the last thing anyone would give up unless it was a deal to take the death penalty off the table). JMOO

 

[SMK777]

There are plenty of men who fit the general description of BG, including men willing to commit crimes. But how many men are actually willing to commit MURDER of a stranger?

That's a huge consideration, imo. You can be a menace of a man, but still not willing to deliberately murder.

I think this is the strongest point, yes.

If Chadwell had been arrested in the Delphi area for say, stealing a car, and they were noticing a physical similarity to BG, I would think, Nah, he’s just a petty criminal who’s a repeat offender, but likely not a killer.

He’s proven otherwise.

 

[SMK777]

It's got to be either positive identification from the "witnesses", phone data / vehicle that places him in the immediate area, recovery of clothing / murder weapon / memento's from the crime scene recoverable from his property etc. I don't think they have enough DNA but you never know.....and perhaps a confession with a full account (but I think this would be the last thing anyone would give up unless it was a deal to take the death penalty off the table). JMOO

I just hope, IF it is him, that they have any of that.

 

[Ozoner]

It's got to be either positive identification from the "witnesses", phone data / vehicle that places him in the immediate area, recovery of clothing / murder weapon / memento's from the crime scene recoverable from his property etc. I don't think they have enough DNA but you never know.....and perhaps a confession with a full account (but I think this would be the last thing anyone would give up unless it was a deal to take the death penalty off the table). JMOO

Eyewitness identification is of very little value. If I were on a jury, I wouldn't even consider it.

 

[Barbieshell]

I think this is the strongest point, yes.

If Chadwell had been arrested in the Delphi area for say, stealing a car, and they were noticing a physical similarity to BG, I would think, Nah, he’s just a petty criminal who’s a repeat offender, but likely not a killer.

He’s proven otherwise.

Yup, I think they were originally looking at sex offenders / offenders who'd previously carried out extreme violence - he wouldn't have showed up on any radar until he took the little girl etc. JMOO
When that happened I'm sure the alarm bells started ringing, given his locality to Delphi, his impulsive / vile actions towards the little girl and his build / facial features having a "familiar" look about them.

 

[helpfulcharlie]

That was the most valuable response in the Q&A series, IMO, especially the way Leazenby worded it. The response seemingly destroys the false alibi theory, at least in terms of a false alibi that has been identified as such. Those who think law enforcement knows who did it are forced to believe a family member or friend knows darn well what happened and have intentionally provided a bad account, one that law enforcement has identified as a lie. Leazenby all but says that is not the case.

I suppose it's possible law enforcement has somebody in mind, and they believe the alibi provided by family members/friends is sincere but simply wrong.

Far more likely, however, they simply have no clue. That is easy to piece together by relying on Leazenby alone. If they go back and forth on one perpetrator or multiple perpetrators, that's not great indication they have nailed this down. Likewise when Leazenby says he has several suspects in mind that is more revealing toward how a small town sheriff like Leazenby thinks -- it has to be one of these local guys I don't trust -- than positive indications toward the status of the case.

I wrote this elsewhere last week: Stranger on a trail. If everything else about this case is thrown away or totally ignored, we are left with those four words as big picture reality. And if those four words summarize this case law enforcement is not supposed to know the identity, and do not.

I really hope you're wrong. I fear you're right, but I hope you're wrong. Especially about the "local guys I don't trust" part. That is the biggest blind spot/source of tunnel vision to small police forces.

 

[Barbieshell]

Eyewitness identification is of very little value. If I were on a jury, I wouldn't even consider it.

What even the folks that apparently "saw" BG that day ?

 

[helpfulcharlie]

I'll address my opinion on your last question first....if you're thinking that the profile is just stuff like "he's older than 40," "he might be local," "he's probably familiar with the trail system," "he's uneducated," then yes, that would make no sense why LE couldn't release the entire profile. But the profile is developed primarily from 1. what he did when he encountered the victims and 2. pre- and post-mortem behaviors at the crime scene itself. So these are the exact same factors LE in Delphi have been holding back since the beginning of the case. It makes no sense that they'd release a profile that goes in depth into what all these behaviors were. It's the exact opposite of what their strategy has been since the beginning. If you disagree with the hold back strategy, then that's another discussion but the profile is based on exactly these things that have been held back. I don't know of any investigation where the full, unedited profile has been released to the public before the apprehension of the suspect. Possibly some are out there but IMO it's rare and what you're usually getting is a partial profile of what LE want to share. Remember the profile doesn't exist so that the public can help find a killer. It's to narrow the focus on suspects that LE develops through the usual investigative strategies.

To address your question of, what if the profile is wrong? Obviously it could be wrong. Elements of it will be subjective even though it's based on psychological research and offender behavioral statistics. However, IMO there is not any LE agency that takes a profile and uses it as the gospel, end-all-be-all directive. It's one tool out of many that they are using. I also think that the profile could be refined and updated over time as more evidence or intelligence comes to light. I don't think it's a static document. JMO.

I disagree with the hold-back strategy, while at the same time admitting that if I knew what they were holding back I might actually agree with holding it back. So I just cross my fingers that they know what they're doing, and hope for the best.