I'm not positive, but I believe the wording was that they *believe* that he at least participated. It only makes sense that they would believe that. They also said they cannot tell whether the voice and the video is of the same individual, because it is unknown to them. I think they are piecing a story together as best as they can with what they have and that leads them to think a certain way, however they have also said that nothing is off the table, which leaves it wide open. Like others have often said here, it seems that they don't know $h!t, which is very sad considering they have video and audio and whatever else they have. Since things seem to be rather dead-end-ish, I just threw out a potential alternative scenario for consideration by sleuthers.
I know I'm replying before reading the 150ish posts after this one so forgive me if I'm repeating what someone has already said but while it's possible LE doesn't know a lot I think you may be missing an important point here. LE has been tight-lipped for a reason (we can only speculate why that is but pretty obvious they must have a reason) and in general when LE, in any state with any crime, speaks about an unsolved crime or one where an arrest has not been made they word things very intentionally and very carefully. What you're interpreting as them not knowing anything I'm interpreting as them speaking carefully. The truth of the matter is we don't know what LE does and doesn't know. It's obvious they know more than they've shared and far more than any of us however so I don't think your comment is fair to them. For whatever reason they are holding back a whole lot of info and some of that info we can know for a fact they do know (as in they obviously know the COD. They know whether or not the criminal left some kind of signature. They probably have a pretty good idea, especially given FBI's involvement whether it was a SK or not and whether it may or may not be related to the case with the cousins in Iowa. We also know they took the BG picture from a video on Libby's phone. They haven't released the video to us but we know they have it and having that video they certainly know more than we do though hard to say how much.)
I mean you could be right that they don't have a clue but we simply don't know. They also claimed to be "quietly making progress" so maybe they have a very good idea who is involved. Maybe not. But I don't think there's a lot of use in analyzing their wording. It's all intentionally and carefully worded as such. Until they make an arrest and there's a conviction I don't think they legally can say anything for sure. That's just the nature of LE.
Certainly their silence and lack of details is frustrating but solving these things is almost never quick. It's been two months. Okay. I don't think that means this is becoming a cold case. Not yet.
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