Israel Keyes: General Discussion

[dub]

aside from the publicity thing, another reason i'm skeptical of his involvement in Lauren's disappearance is the documentation of him using toll roads in Indiana on 6/3/11. Paper trails are exactly what he took great pains to avoid, so letting himself be "caught" in the state on the day she disappeared bothers me. But, i suppose it's possible that may have been the beginning of the end for him since he was caught only 9 months later. Maybe he realized his mistake and was upset and stressed and that led to what happened to the Curriers? idk...trying to follow the thought processes of a serial killer is difficult

The paper trail with the tolls doesn’t really bother me because:

A. While it does place him in Indiana, it also places him a pretty long way from where Lauren disappeared - I can’t recall the exact distance but maybe 3.5 hours?

B. There is also a paper trail (his hotel) on the same trip that places him literally in the Curriers’ neighborhood at the time they disappeared, so it seems that on that trip he wasn’t super worried about it.

And I agree that the reason he didn’t care could be the exact one that you suggested.

 

[dub]

The more I think about Keyes hotel stay in Essex, the more I think there had to be a specific point to it. Even if he was completely unglued at that point, it makes no sense.

Essex is only two hours from Constable, and he had been staying in Constable for a couple days right before checking into the Essex hotel. If the Curriers, or whoever in Essex, were part of the plan, why not just drive in from Constable to commit the murders and avoid the paper trail?

He was there 6/7-6/9 and murdered the Curriers basically right before he checked out (they are listed as last seen on 6/8, but they were abducted early morning 6/9). So the only thing that makes sense to me is he was cruising for victims somewhere quite a distance away on 6/7 and 6/8 and couldn’t find one, and the Curriers were a snap decision as a result of that.

Like, maybe the story about the guy in the bug is mostly true but it happened in Connecticut or Long Island or something?

Why this might be important is, if Keyes hopped on the interstate and headed south, he would have passed through TWO areas where potential victims went missing in the months following the Curriers (Marble Arvidson in august and Nancy Reagey in october).

Any other ideas on what in the world the point of that hotel was? I’d just never thought before about how weird this is.

 

[FoxxTraxx]

6. there's another possible Keyes victim (can't remember the name) i believe in Texas just before he was caught and his glasses were found placed in his abandoned vehicle.

You are probably thinking of James Lamar Tidwell. His glasses were found lying on the seat of his truck. The truck was found abandoned in Rusk County TX in Feb. 2012. IK robbed a bank in nearby Azle TX wearing a hard hat that strongly resembled the hard hat Tidwell had been wearing at the time of his disappearance. No trace of Tidwell has ever been found.

 

[imageofcontrol]

So folks, new podcast on Keyes and new episodes of TCBS seem to be getting more into the physical investigation. I’m personally pretty excited, I love a good mystery and some geolocating.

Looks like the new podcast is going to start with Washington, which likely has many caches. I am very curious about Franconia ridge however. The falls there look very close to how Blake falls was too. Loose rock formations and whatnot. Even just on the 360 images on google I see tons of little nooks and rocky drops that would shelter a kit well. It seems like a perfect central location, keyes spotted there 2x and it certainly doesn’t always have a lot of traffic yearround.

Anyone here have any pet theories re: caches or other physical evidence? Victim burials? Method or location?

Personally port angeles seems super likely. There’s a creek/path network running through the whole town and the hotel stays would make sense if he had a “home” cache in Port Angeles. Far from Neah Bay but close enough for a day trip or quick stay. Any random souvenirs he flew back could be stashed there on the way from SeaTac.

Also - does anyone recall the episode josh mentions an older man finding a likely kill kit and tossing it in the woods? In OR maybe? I don’t think it was in a bucket. But the buckets seem to be a trend and not a rule given Houston (duffle bag by airport?) and Eagle River (trashbags under a tree)

 

[MesquiteO21]

You are probably thinking of James Lamar Tidwell. His glasses were found lying on the seat of his truck. The truck was found abandoned in Rusk County TX in Feb. 2012. IK robbed a bank in nearby Azle TX wearing a hard hat that strongly resembled the hard hat Tidwell had been wearing at the time of his disappearance. No trace of Tidwell has ever been found.

yes that's the one thank you!

 

[MesquiteO21]

So folks, new podcast on Keyes and new episodes of TCBS seem to be getting more into the physical investigation. I’m personally pretty excited, I love a good mystery and some geolocating.

Looks like the new podcast is going to start with Washington, which likely has many caches. I am very curious about Franconia ridge however. The falls there look very close to how Blake falls was too. Loose rock formations and whatnot. Even just on the 360 images on google I see tons of little nooks and rocky drops that would shelter a kit well. It seems like a perfect central location, keyes spotted there 2x and it certainly doesn’t always have a lot of traffic yearround.

Anyone here have any pet theories re: caches or other physical evidence? Victim burials? Method or location?

Personally port angeles seems super likely. There’s a creek/path network running through the whole town and the hotel stays would make sense if he had a “home” cache in Port Angeles. Far from Neah Bay but close enough for a day trip or quick stay. Any random souvenirs he flew back could be stashed there on the way from SeaTac.

Also - does anyone recall the episode josh mentions an older man finding a likely kill kit and tossing it in the woods? In OR maybe? I don’t think it was in a bucket. But the buckets seem to be a trend and not a rule given Houston (duffle bag by airport?) and Eagle River (trashbags under a tree)

oh wow i didn't know some of the kits were in duffle bags and trashbags...that doesn't seem very smart. Duffle bags usually aren't small so not sure how well that could've been hidden. Trashbag also seems like it would call attention, even if no one looked inside it they might just pick it up and throw out.

as for victim burials i'd love to know of course. i would imagine at least some other victims like Samantha were dumped in lakes. i do wonder if he ever used acid, like the mob has done and you sometimes see in movies. i wouldn't put it past him. fire is probably another possibility. and then whatever is leftover from that (since i don't think either acid or fire necessarily get rid of absolutely everything) he probably scattered elsewhere. For example I can picture him using acid for a victim in NY and then if something like a bone or dental filling didn't totally break down discarding of it in some remote part of Oklahoma. It's crazy but i think it's likely that there are various parts of his victims all across the country in who knows what woods or rivers, etc.

unless the FBI has a clear specific idea where anything might be, i think unfortunately most of his kits and victims will never be found unless someone comes across them by total accident and actually goes to the authorities. and that could be 10, 20, 30+ years from now if ever.

 

[imageofcontrol]

oh wow i didn't know some of the kits were in duffle bags and trashbags...that doesn't seem very smart. Duffle bags usually aren't small so not sure how well that could've been hidden. Trashbag also seems like it would call attention, even if no one looked inside it they might just pick it up and throw out.

as for victim burials i'd love to know of course. i would imagine at least some other victims like Samantha were dumped in lakes. i do wonder if he ever used acid, like the mob has done and you sometimes see in movies. i wouldn't put it past him. fire is probably another possibility. and then whatever is leftover from that (since i don't think either acid or fire necessarily get rid of absolutely everything) he probably scattered elsewhere. For example I can picture him using acid for a victim in NY and then if something like a bone or dental filling didn't totally break down discarding of it in some remote part of Oklahoma. It's crazy but i think it's likely that there are various parts of his victims all across the country in who knows what woods or rivers, etc.

unless the FBI has a clear specific idea where anything might be, i think unfortunately most of his kits and victims will never be found unless someone comes across them by total accident and actually goes to the authorities. and that could be 10, 20, 30+ years from now if ever.

That’s been about my thoughts re: bodies. He always brought up how the authorities “might not find anything” or basically implied it was fruitless most of the time, either from time/wildlife/his efforts to destroy the bodies. I don’t think he had time to use the lye/draino fully on his tight timelines so I guess it was just to attempt to damage the body/DNA. Lye usually requires water to work effectively. But I generally agree he didn’t bury people whole. I never thought about spreading the remains across different land.

On the topic of caches, eagle river was fairly well hidden by default, it was just a really lazy job at the actual spot (in brambles). IIRC this one had very little inside it of any value.

 

[MesquiteO21]

That’s been about my thoughts re: bodies. He always brought up how the authorities “might not find anything” or basically implied it was fruitless most of the time, either from time/wildlife/his efforts to destroy the bodies. I don’t think he had time to use the lye/draino fully on his tight timelines so I guess it was just to attempt to damage the body/DNA. Lye usually requires water to work effectively. But I generally agree he didn’t bury people whole. I never thought about spreading the remains across different land.

On the topic of caches, eagle river was fairly well hidden by default, it was just a really lazy job at the actual spot (in brambles). IIRC this one had very little inside it of any value.

Body disposal is something I’ve thought about a lot and it perplexes me. Because if there’s a very slim chance of them ever being found I’m trying to think, practically, how he would’ve done that. Maybe parts aren’t scattered across many states because on second thought it would be pretty risky to travel with body parts in his car on the chance he was pulled over and searched. But then again we know he did travel to the lake with Samantha’s remains and traveled in the car with the Curriers when he was kidnapping them, and had to have had other bodies in his car. But maybe just not for super long distances. It’s very curious and I really hope we can get answers one day as to the whereabouts of his victims but sadly I’m not hopeful.

 

[dub]

So folks, new podcast on Keyes and new episodes of TCBS seem to be getting more into the physical investigation. I’m personally pretty excited, I love a good mystery and some geolocating.

Looks like the new podcast is going to start with Washington, which likely has many caches. I am very curious about Franconia ridge however. The falls there look very close to how Blake falls was too. Loose rock formations and whatnot. Even just on the 360 images on google I see tons of little nooks and rocky drops that would shelter a kit well. It seems like a perfect central location, keyes spotted there 2x and it certainly doesn’t always have a lot of traffic yearround.

Anyone here have any pet theories re: caches or other physical evidence? Victim burials? Method or location?

Personally port angeles seems super likely. There’s a creek/path network running through the whole town and the hotel stays would make sense if he had a “home” cache in Port Angeles. Far from Neah Bay but close enough for a day trip or quick stay. Any random souvenirs he flew back could be stashed there on the way from SeaTac.

Also - does anyone recall the episode josh mentions an older man finding a likely kill kit and tossing it in the woods? In OR maybe? I don’t think it was in a bucket. But the buckets seem to be a trend and not a rule given Houston (duffle bag by airport?) and Eagle River (trashbags under a tree)

If I remember right, TCBS theory (which makes sense to me) is that yes Keyes had two distinct cache types - basically temporary ones that didn’t have “important” stuff in them but were easier to access, and semi-permanent ones that did. They seem to think that he had at least one of each type in the Port Angeles area.

And yes I remember the guy who threw the cache off the cliff or whatever it was. Im almost positive it was in Washington on the Olympic peninsula but not sure where on the peninsula off hand.

 

[dub]

Anyone here have any pet theories re: caches or other physical evidence? Victim burials? Method or location?

SBM my “pet theory” on caches is that Keyes may not have kept items from victims in caches with other stuff (having missing persons’ stuff turn up in a bucket with a murder kit is a bad look) and there actually is a third type of cache that exclusively contains these items and is hidden even better than the others.

The main reason I think this is the cache that was found right near his house in Constable. That’s the one bucket cache that’s ever been found completely randomly.

Keyes never directed the FBI to it, it was right by his home base, and I believe that one actually was buried, so it seems like the cache should have been one that could hold stuff like that going by the two-type theory. But my understanding is its contents were very similar to the Blake Falls cache—not much of use to the investigation.

I guess it’s possible that there WAS more found in it than was made public. That could be why it’s not as well known as the Blake Falls one, although I think more likely it’s because it was found long after Keyes died and the case wasn’t being investigated much at that point. I feel like if there was more in it, TCBS would be able to speculate that this was the case due to FOIA redactions, but who knows.

 

[dub]

I just listened to the first episode of Somewhere in the Pines, and they had the same idea as me about what they call a “trophy cache”, but their theory is that he had SIX different cache types.

I’m not sure I totally agree with them, but their idea of “disposal caches” is really interesting and not something I ever thought about before. If they’re right about that, it could be useful to some degree in trying to nail down potential body dump sites (or at least types of sites).

 

[imageofcontrol]

I just listened to the first episode of Somewhere in the Pines, and they had the same idea as me about what they call a “trophy cache”, but their theory is that he had SIX different cache types.

I’m not sure I totally agree with them, but their idea of “disposal caches” is really interesting and not something I ever thought about before. If they’re right about that, it could be useful to some degree in trying to nail down potential body dump sites (or at least types of sites).

I’m intrigued by the mentions of the cache types as well. 6 seems a bit much even for Keyes, but I could see them being prioritized (ie. a well hidden one with guns, money, souvenirs, vs one with tarps/ties/shovels/etc.). It would also make sense if he planned his routes this way. Texas was new so the shovel and lube purchases would make sense (new cache or a victim without premade cache access).

On the topic of Lye as well, the new episode of TCBS discussed their theory (which has been mentioned before) that Feldman’s remains may have been disposed of in an outhouse tank, possibly with the addition of lye. I think Josh has connected these ideas before - water and lye being used in tandem for idle destruction of remains, meaning burial had to be contained, and constantly wet.

 

[dub]

I’m intrigued by the mentions of the cache types as well. 6 seems a bit much even for Keyes, but I could see them being prioritized (ie. a well hidden one with guns, money, souvenirs, vs one with tarps/ties/shovels/etc.). It would also make sense if he planned his routes this way. Texas was new so the shovel and lube purchases would make sense (new cache or a victim without premade cache access).

On the topic of Lye as well, the new episode of TCBS discussed their theory (which has been mentioned before) that Feldman’s remains may have been disposed of in an outhouse tank, possibly with the addition of lye. I think Josh has connected these ideas before - water and lye being used in tandem for idle destruction of remains, meaning burial had to be contained, and constantly wet.

I’ve never had strong theories on Keyes’ body disposal habits, but the more I think about it the more it makes sense that Debra was far from the only victim that ended up in an outhouse.

Like, I feel like he preferred to dispose in water when possible, but outhouses very well could have been a go-to plan when that wasn’t feasible.

 

[Muddy K]

I’ve never had strong theories on Keyes’ body disposal habits, but the more I think about it the more it makes sense that Debra was far from the only victim that ended up in an outhouse.

Like, I feel like he preferred to dispose in water when possible, but outhouses very well could have been a go-to plan when that wasn’t feasible.

I agree with this. His narrative of what he claimed was his first attempt at murder involved the young woman tubing with her friends at a river. He told an elaborate tale about the encounter unfolding in that dank cinderblock public restroom.

I still think about the later TCBS episode featuring the woman who may have been that same girl. Her version of the events was harrowing, similar and yet so different than his. There was something terribly sad in the mix: so close to killing, so close to being killed. Somehow, both were saved that day only by their inexperience.

We all know how he went on to mature...

Yes, I think water, and all it might conceal, was important to him.

 

[imstilla.grandma]

 

[dub]

New Somewhere in the Pines episode has a lot of good info on the Essex cache and the .40 handgun that I’ve been trying to track, but as always it raises more questions than answers.

-the .40 seemingly was not in the Blake Falls cache, but the FBI does have it. Did Keyes maybe have it when he was arrested? If so, then that probably is the Glock 27 he was going to try to sell in Utah, but I can’t recall if he was arrested with a gun or not. If not, how did the FBI get a hold of it?

-it had been buried “a few years earlier” in the Essex cache and Keyes dug it up right before the Curriers. Apparently there was also at least one other gun in that cache that was NOT the gun he shot Bill with—what this gun was and what happened to it I have no idea.

-allegedly that cache is still there just minus a few items. Keyes “tried” to lead the FBI to it but they didn’t find it. He may have just misdirected them as with the Green River cache, but I have a feeling it’s not there and he just led them on a wild goose chase.

-oddly this cache was not in a Home Depot bucket but in a wooden box. I have no idea what to make of this—maybe he buried it a LONG time prior (like on the 04 trip?) before he fully refined his caching technique? The box leaked and the guns were slightly damaged as a result, so this could be why he was hesitant to use the .40

 

[dub]

Somewhere in the Pines interviewed the Washington FBI and there was some pretty helpful info on who they are looking at as likely victims in WA.

They don’t mention names but the info they do give is specific enough that it can be narrowed down to a small pool. Four victims, two in the western district and two in eastern, all four disappeared in either 2005 or 2006.

So that suggests the western district victims are probably Mike Mason and Del Sample. We know for sure that they are looking hard at Sample, but the question is whether they actually think he’s a “likely” victim.

And I think the ones in the eastern district are most likely Gregrey Brown and Cynthia Marl, although the eastern district is trickier and I don’t think either of them are as high probability as victims as Mason or Sample.

Outside possibilities are Lyn Ohana in western (we know the FBI looked into her at least a little bit), and Roger Jung in either one (disappeared from western, car found in eastern).

Any other possibilities?

 

[dub]

If I remember right, TCBS theory (which makes sense to me) is that yes Keyes had two distinct cache types - basically temporary ones that didn’t have “important” stuff in them but were easier to access, and semi-permanent ones that did. They seem to think that he had at least one of each type in the Port Angeles area.

And yes I remember the guy who threw the cache off the cliff or whatever it was. Im almost positive it was in Washington on the Olympic peninsula but not sure where on the peninsula off hand.

Bumping own post for update: I think the cache that the guy found was the one they were talking about at the end of todays Somewhere in the Pines.

They are calling it the Olympic Hot Springs cache, which seems to be pretty close to Port Angeles but actually in Olympic NP. I am not positive I’m looking at the right location, but they are going to go to the spot in the next episode so should be more information on it then.

 

[nclady1983]

Hello everyone,
New member here, and cannot figure out for the life of me, why I havent joined this site before now.

Now....This is my PERSONAL opinion and theory, based on public information I was able to find:

In my opinion, based on my own sleuthing official sources: The Samantha Koenig ransom photo is genuine.

I wasn't sure if I could share the information (its a link to the FBI vault and Anchorage newspaper archives) none of it is confidential or inappropriate, its just information I was able to piece together, but it leaves me 80% certain that the photo is real. There's often a debate on other forums as to whether or not it is, but for me this settles it.

 

[Muddy K]

Hello everyone,
New member here, and cannot figure out for the life of me, why I havent joined this site before now.

Now....This is my PERSONAL opinion and theory, based on public information I was able to find:

In my opinion, based on my own sleuthing official sources: The Samantha Koenig ransom photo is genuine.

I wasn't sure if I could share the information (its a link to the FBI vault and Anchorage newspaper archives) none of it is confidential or inappropriate, its just information I was able to piece together, but it leaves me 80% certain that the photo is real. There's often a debate on other forums as to whether or not it is, but for me this settles it.

Welcome to Websleuths, @nclady1983

I'm frankly shocked to learn that there are people out there who don't think the ransom photo of poor Samantha is real. Of course it is, and of course she was already deceased when Keyes snapped the Polaroid.

IMO, Samantha Koenig was the true beginning of Keyes' complete unraveling, from the moment he abducted her, through the tool room shed horrors, the ATM card, fake texts and the ransom stuff, to the brazen, risky way he disposed of her body parts.

The tragedy of Samantha is that her life was taken, but also that she became basically an unsung hero afterward, because Keyes had lost all self-control and was never able to kill again.

Except to murder himself, of course.