Italy - Sailing yacht sank off Italian coast, 15 rescued, 7 missing, 19 August 2024

[SpanishInquisition]

I think it's going to boil down to whether the crew's response was lacking or not, the circumstance of a waterspout would trump any responses they employed. It's akin to being impaired driving your vehicle when the bridge you are on collapses. Your impaired state is irrelevent. The waterspout I experience a few years ago in the Gulf of Mexico was a fair weather waterspout and it caused some damage to outdoor furniture and blew out car windows once it arrived on shore. A tornadic waterspout in bad weather is a whole different animal according to this article.

Waterspouts can be as dangerous as tornadoes on land – expert Q+A

Waterspouts form over warm bodies of water (lakes as well as the ocean). Fair-weather waterspouts are thankfully more common and often form from cumulus clouds.

www.preventionweb.net

It was actually downburst and I think what matters is why and how the presumably inferior and smaller 1950s-built Sir Robert Baden Powell not only survived unscathed but helped with the rescue of the Bayesian, which was only a few hundred yards away. I very much get the impression that Captain Borner was being far more proactive during this time actively handling his vessel personally against both the wind and avoid a collision with the Bayesian while it sounds like at this time that it was a deckwatch on hand with the captain of the Bayesian not coming out until after the vessel tilted and only then was having the crew collect debris. I do think the Sir Robert Baden Powell was less prone to catastrophic failure despite being an antique and that the captain or the SRBP acted far more appropriately in taking personal charge of navigating the weather and hazards and I'm guessing it may come down to comparing how the SRBP crew acted versus the Bayesian crew to determine who would get charged with what on the Bayesian but crew responsibility will be mitigated at least to some degree due to the Bayesian's design. I do think the Bayesian captain in particular may be responsible for not mustering the passengers when the vessel tilted and was taking on water as the vessel was in immediate risk of sinking and passengers becoming unable to escape. I think - or at least hope - he may have been concussed so couldn't think clearly due to injury rather than that being his clear-headed judgment to have the crew be collecting debris while the ship sank rather than collecting passengers.

 

[Elley Mae]

Sunk Mallorca-based superyacht likely to cost insurers at least $150 million, experts say

Skipper back on the island. “Whoever thought a storm in the Mediterranean in the month of August is going to sink a ship?”

www.majorcadailybulletin.com

 

[RedHaus]

...while it sounds like at this time that it was a deckwatch on hand with the captain of the Bayesian not coming out until after the vessel tilted and only then was having the crew collect debris...

RS&BBM
@SpanishInquisition, I wonder if you or an OP has a reference for this point that I keep see being made... that the crew might have been busy clearing the deck of debris rather than ensuring passengers below deck were saved. Every time I see someone post this it just boggles my mind... makes me sick to my stomach in fact. I just missed the reference.

 

[ch_13]

There have been some media articles quoting Stephen Edwards, the former captain of the Bayesian. But here's the actual post he made on LinkedIn where those quotes were taken from:

Stephen Edwards on LinkedIn: Some notes on Bayesian | 42 comments

Some notes on Bayesian... | 42 comments on LinkedIn

www.linkedin.com

 

[ch_13]

There have been some media articles quoting Stephen Edwards, the former captain of the Bayesian. But here's the actual post he made on LinkedIn where those quotes were taken from:

Stephen Edwards on LinkedIn: Some notes on Bayesian | 42 comments

Some notes on Bayesian... | 42 comments on LinkedIn

www.linkedin.com

View attachment 528081
View attachment 528082

Edwards is very careful not to speculate.

However, reading between the lines I think he's suggesting that the vent dampeners would have been left open to run the HVAC systems and generator. If an extreme weather event, like a downspout, came on them suddenly, there may have been insufficient time for the crew to react in time and close the vents to prevent the ship from flooding.

 

[SouthAussie]

Just putting this account here, as an example of the chaotic craziness that can happen to a yacht and its crew. For those who may be interested.

I have just copied a few parts that exhibit the duress they can be under. There was a lot more yelling and action going on than I have related here.
It might help towards some understanding of the traumatic event that I perceive the crew went through. And the fact that they didn't know what the heck hit them.




A NIGHT TO REMEMBER - Former Professional Sailing Captain (1979–2006)

 

[LadyL]

RS&BBM
@SpanishInquisition, I wonder if you or an OP has a reference for this point that I keep see being made... that the crew might have been busy clearing the deck of debris rather than ensuring passengers below deck were saved. Every time I see someone post this it just boggles my mind... makes me sick to my stomach in fact. I just missed the reference.

[bbm]

yes I, too, have been wondering where that came from

 

[SpanishInquisition]

RS&BBM
@SpanishInquisition, I wonder if you or an OP has a reference for this point that I keep see being made... that the crew might have been busy clearing the deck of debris rather than ensuring passengers below deck were saved. Every time I see someone post this it just boggles my mind... makes me sick to my stomach in fact. I just missed the reference.

From Yachting Monthly, which I believe YM is quoting from an Italian news agency:
‘A crew member has reported that the weather deteriorated and they (the crew) were on deck securing everything moveable (cushions, doors, etc) and the boat was heeling about 20° to starboard in the strong wind,’ ANSA reported. ‘Suddenly the heeling increased and they were in the water. This sounds like sudden massive downflooding.’

Tragic sinking of superyacht Bayesian; Italian prosecutors investigate

Italian prosecutors are investigating the circumstances surrounding the sinking of the 56m Perini Navi superyacht Bayesian

www.yachtingmonthly.com

This just blows my mind that they were focused on property rather than people in that situation, which it doesn't seem like whoever was in charge understood the danger of the situation. This is why I wonder about injuries to those in charge as it's way more important to secure passengers than cushions, like if the captain hit his head during the initial heeling and so was in a daze. They needed to muster the passengers when they were at 20°, like I just can't fathom chasing after cushions when glass is breaking, the boat is heeling as well as the boat shaking from the anchor being dragged. The broken glass alone should have generated a crew response as that could be fatal/serious in it's own right even if it was just some drunk passenger who broke something in perfect weather. Maybe the crew had experience providing luxury but didn't have experience in emergencies and possibly didn't have the right psychological make-up, like for submarines and other such things you have to pass psychological tests that you can handle emergencies but I don't think that's really graded with luxury yacht crews...the crew collectively and individually might have thought "This isn't happening" if they were inexperienced in emergencies and didn't have the right psychological make-up. I just really don't get it as I think most everyone onboard could have been saved if not the yacht itself.

I am curious about AB during this time, like when it was she got injured from glass and what her interactions with the crew were...like did she get crippled from glass going to wherever it was she went on deck and if so did any of the crew see her with crippling glass injuries. I don't know if it would be worse if she wasn't seen by the crew before everyone on deck tilted overboard or if the crew saw a bloody injured passenger and they didn't do anything in response to that, like I would think seeing a bloody crippled owner of the yacht itself would trigger mustering and securing all passengers the top priority.

 

[SouthAussie]

Snipped for focus

They needed to muster the passengers when they were at 20°

20 degrees is actually quite comfortable, and is considered by many to be a preferred heeling when sailing.
No cause for alarm at that range. Just make sure things are secure.

A sailboat can safely heel much further than that. 25 degrees ... 30 degrees ... it just doesn't go as fast.

imo

ETA a link, there are many out there ..

Most cruising sailboats are designed to be stable and comfortable. They typically perform best at an angle of heel between 10° and 20°.
Angle of heel on a sailboat.

 

[bfew]

Even in my country in Central/Eastern Europe (Poland) we have had constant 30+ degrees Celsius and sudden flooding storms NON STOP the whole summer.
Today is 32 degrees C where I live - and it is the end of August

Italy, Spain, Greece and others are boiling hot.

It's still officially winter here in Sydney and it was a monthly max. record 31.6C near where I live yesterday (30 Aug - close to Sydney Airport).

 

[RedHaus]

20 degrees is actually quite comfortable, and is considered by many to be a preferred heeling when sailing. No cause for alarm at that range. Just make sure things are secure.

RS&BBM
OK, I get that perspective while under sail.

I love a good-size heel when I'm in a sailboat, as a passenger. The more the merrier, in fact. It's all part of the excitement of sailing (vs. motoring). I've sailed on several old schooners, high-end 50-75 feet yachts (mono and dual hull), and of course day sailers and hobies. And I've over-nighted on several of these, in protected coves, mind you.

So here is where I question the logic of a 20° heel in the situation of the Bayesian.

It was not sailing. It was anchored. It was not in a protected cove. It was 0.5 miles of the coast. There were thunderstorms in the area, that the boat builder contests were obvious. An OP pointed out here that the Mediterranean's weather patterns have become more unpredictable with excessive heat. You have passengers on board who are mostly middle aged and likely not agile, and you have a one year old baby on board. So as the captain, watchman, or first officer, all of whom are being investigated, do you really say "ahh, the Bayesian is heeling at 20°, it's OK."

Or do they say, holy Sh!#, there is a big storm approaching, we have no land or fjords to protect us, this could be nothing, but it could get really bad. And this yacht could sink if it heels another 25°. And if the swells build and the yacht starts rocking, our vulnerable passengers may not be able to traverse the hallways and staircase from their staterooms. So let's get the passengers to muster in the salloon, get life jackets on them, and be prepared for the worst, hope for the best.

So I disagree. That heel to 20° at anchor should have set off all alarm bells. Sadly it apparently did not as the crew was busy clearing the deck of cushions. Something does not add up here, IMO.

 

[SouthAussie]

So I disagree. That heel to 20° at anchor should have set off all alarm bells. Sadly it apparently did not as the crew was busy clearing the deck of cushions. Something does not add up here, IMO.

No problem. I was pointing out that it is a safe heel. No matter if the boat is stationary or under sail. At 20/25/30 degrees the boat is not going to capsize. Boats regularly sit out at moorings, unattended, and get (safely) blown around.

I don't think that the yacht owner would have hired an inexperienced crew. And if she did, she is going to pay lots of dollars for that. Let alone the cost in human lives.

imo

 

[SpanishInquisition]

20 degrees is actually quite comfortable, and is considered by many to be a preferred heeling when sailing.
No cause for alarm at that range. Just make sure things are secure.

A sailboat can safely heel much further than that. 25 degrees ... 30 degrees ... it just doesn't go as fast.

imo

ETA a link, there are many out there ..

Most cruising sailboats are designed to be stable and comfortable. They typically perform best at an angle of heel between 10° and 20°.
Angle of heel on a sailboat.

I'm aware of that, which context is key. They didn't get into the 20° heel voluntarily as part of sailing but instead were in that position due to weather with flooding happening while they were at anchor. It's perfectly normal to drive your car 20 MPH, but something is up if your car suddenly starts going 20 MPH when you're parked as the context has changed from a normal desirable situation to a potentially dangerous situation even though the speed is the same in both scenarios. If you're at 20° heel involuntarily while the vessel is flooding - amongst other things - and you're potentially facing catastrophic flooding at 40° heel that's not the same thing as getting into that position from putting up the sails to cruise along your merry way. If you were at 20° heel from sailing and it turned out at least one of your passengers was crippled from glass breaking, wouldn't the context of that situation even without a storm make you go from chasing cushions to dealing with passenger welfare just on that alone? I just can't imagine cruising along like nothing is happening while you've got a passenger who has been crippled from glass breaking on the ship. Not only could that known injured passenger be in danger, there could be other injured passengers that you don't know about below deck and if you don't act on that hazard more passengers could get injured from the broken glass.

 

[SouthAussie]

I'm aware of that, which context is key. They didn't get into the 20° heel voluntarily as part of sailing but instead were in that position due to weather with flooding happening while they were at anchor. It's perfectly normal to drive your car 20 MPH, but something is up if your car suddenly starts going 20 MPH when you're parked as the context has changed from a normal desirable situation to a potentially dangerous situation even though the speed is the same in both scenarios.

As I explained earlier, boats do not sit at anchor at their moorings (unattended) and simply stay still. They are buffeted around during storms, They heel way over. They do circles around their anchors. They still do not capsize.

There is a safe heeling range, because the boats are almost constantly in the water. In all kinds of weather. Whether people are in them or not.
20 degrees likely sits around the middle of that safe heeling range.

Anyway, at this point, I will need to agree to disagree. I see what you are saying. I just don't think it is correct, is all.

imo

 

[ItalyReader]

It was actually downburst and I think what matters is why and how the presumably inferior and smaller 1950s-built Sir Robert Baden Powell not only survived unscathed but helped with the rescue of the Bayesian, which was only a few hundred yards away. I very much get the impression that Captain Borner was being far more proactive during this time actively handling his vessel personally against both the wind and avoid a collision with the Bayesian while it sounds like at this time that it was a deckwatch on hand with the captain of the Bayesian not coming out until after the vessel tilted and only then was having the crew collect debris. I do think the Sir Robert Baden Powell was less prone to catastrophic failure despite being an antique and that the captain or the SRBP acted far more appropriately in taking personal charge of navigating the weather and hazards and I'm guessing it may come down to comparing how the SRBP crew acted versus the Bayesian crew to determine who would get charged with what on the Bayesian but crew responsibility will be mitigated at least to some degree due to the Bayesian's design. I do think the Bayesian captain in particular may be responsible for not mustering the passengers when the vessel tilted and was taking on water as the vessel was in immediate risk of sinking and passengers becoming unable to escape. I think - or at least hope - he may have been concussed so couldn't think clearly due to injury rather than that being his clear-headed judgment to have the crew be collecting debris while the ship sank rather than collecting passengers.

I’ve seen a few mentions of a concussion but I can’t find anything about that it - do you have a source? Thank you

 

[Yellowbelly]

From Yachting Monthly, which I believe YM is quoting from an Italian news agency:
‘A crew member has reported that the weather deteriorated and they (the crew) were on deck securing everything moveable (cushions, doors, etc) and the boat was heeling about 20° to starboard in the strong wind,’ ANSA reported. ‘Suddenly the heeling increased and they were in the water. This sounds like sudden massive downflooding.’

Tragic sinking of superyacht Bayesian; Italian prosecutors investigate

Italian prosecutors are investigating the circumstances surrounding the sinking of the 56m Perini Navi superyacht Bayesian

www.yachtingmonthly.com

This just blows my mind that they were focused on property rather than people in that situation, which it doesn't seem like whoever was in charge understood the danger of the situation. This is why I wonder about injuries to those in charge as it's way more important to secure passengers than cushions, like if the captain hit his head during the initial heeling and so was in a daze. They needed to muster the passengers when they were at 20°, like I just can't fathom chasing after cushions when glass is breaking, the boat is heeling as well as the boat shaking from the anchor being dragged. The broken glass alone should have generated a crew response as that could be fatal/serious in it's own right even if it was just some drunk passenger who broke something in perfect weather. Maybe the crew had experience providing luxury but didn't have experience in emergencies and possibly didn't have the right psychological make-up, like for submarines and other such things you have to pass psychological tests that you can handle emergencies but I don't think that's really graded with luxury yacht crews...the crew collectively and individually might have thought "This isn't happening" if they were inexperienced in emergencies and didn't have the right psychological make-up. I just really don't get it as I think most everyone onboard could have been saved if not the yacht itself.

I am curious about AB during this time, like when it was she got injured from glass and what her interactions with the crew were...like did she get crippled from glass going to wherever it was she went on deck and if so did any of the crew see her with crippling glass injuries. I don't know if it would be worse if she wasn't seen by the crew before everyone on deck tilted overboard or if the crew saw a bloody injured passenger and they didn't do anything in response to that, like I would think seeing a bloody crippled owner of the yacht itself would trigger mustering and securing all passengers the top priority.

If all the crew had been ordered to do is secure moveable items on deck then that says to me that nobody, from the captain down, thought the yacht was in any real danger until it was too late to do anything to save it or the passengers.

An important question the investigators will be looking at is whether there was any attempt to proactively maneuver the boat in the storm. Reading through various articles since the sinking, it seems what should have happened is something like this -

3.50am OOW - "Captain, sorry to wake you but she's dragging her anchor."

Captain - "OK, lower the keel, start the engine and steer her into the wind. I'll be up in a minute"

If it had played out like that I suspect we'd all be totally unware that Mike Lynch's family owned a yacht called Bayesian.

 

[bfew]

3.50am OOW - "Captain, sorry to wake you but she's dragging her anchor."

Captain - "OK, lower the keel, start the engine and steer her into the wind. I'll be up in a minute"

What about the crew that was meant to be watching the weather radar and reports from nearby boats, for signs of things like downbursts and waterspouts?

 

[Dotta]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1829824202204955031

 

[SouthAussie]

What about the crew that was meant to be watching the weather radar and reports from nearby boats, for signs of things like downbursts and waterspouts?

"Predicting a downburst is not easy
Since this phenomena is small in scale and happens rapidly. It is not currently possible to provide advance warning on where exactly microbursts will occur. Weather radar can detect these as they occur, if the radar is not too far away."

Downbursts

 

[Yellowbelly]

What about the crew that was meant to be watching the weather radar and reports from nearby boats, for signs of things like downbursts and waterspouts?

Monitoring the various instruments on the bridge is what the Officer of the Watch (OOW) is on the bridge to do.