Italy - Sailing yacht sank off Italian coast, 15 rescued, 7 missing, 19 August 2024

[SpanishInquisition]

I’ve seen a few mentions of a concussion but I can’t find anything about that it - do you have a source? Thank you

It's my speculation that could explain why the Bayesian captain acted the way that he did rather than anything reported in the news. The only specific injury that I'm aware of is AB, who ended up in wheelchair due to being injured from broken glass.

 

[RedHaus]

3.50am OOW - "Captain, sorry to wake you but she's dragging her anchor."

Captain - "OK, lower the keel, start the engine and steer her into the wind. I'll be up in a minute"

If it had played out like that I suspect we'd all be totally unware that Mike Lynch's family owned a yacht called Bayesian.

RSBM
@Yellowbelly, not to make light of the situation, but you surely have a knack for calling attention to the crux of the matter. I could not agree more with your 'wish' as to how it could have played out.

 

[RedHaus]

No problem. I was pointing out that it is a safe heel. No matter if the boat is stationary or under sail. At 20/25/30 degrees the boat is not going to capsize. Boats regularly sit out at moorings, unattended, and get (safely) blown around.

I don't think that the yacht owner would have hired an inexperienced crew. And if she did, she is going to pay lots of dollars for that. Let alone the cost in human lives.

imo

No worries. I do think it's all about context. But we can agree to disagree.

That said I REALLY want to find historical weather radar data for that location 19-8 12:00am to 03:50am given the yacht's builder claims there was obvious reason for the crew to be concerned. I am sure investigators have that in hand by now.

That is my sleuthing mission for today.

That crazy downburst we've already confirmed with data had to have come from a thunderstorm. And while downbursts are hard to predict, a severe thunderstorm can be predicted. IMO.

 

[RedHaus]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1829824202204955031

Thanks, @Dotta. I found these nuggets:

"...Among theories being investigated are whether proper procedures were carried out by the drew to secure the yacht ahead of the storm which had been forecast and which had stopped trawlers heading out to sea.... There will also be focus on the keel of Bayesian which should have been deployed to its maximum length to help stability in and weather..."

p.s. good 'ol DM and their shoddy editing!

 

[Dotta]

Thanks, @Dotta. I found these nuggets:

"...Among theories being investigated are whether proper procedures were carried out by the drew to secure the yacht ahead of the storm which had been forecast and which had stopped trawlers heading out to sea.... There will also be focus on the keel of Bayesian which should have been deployed to its maximum length to help stability in and weather..."

p.s. good 'ol DM and their shoddy editing!

I think "good'ol" DM should have taken a peek into our discussion on WS
as we have pointed out ALL these issues here

Oh well...

For all WS Sailors

On the Sea...
In search of myself...

On the Sea...
I'm free
This is where I want to be ...

 

[ItalyReader]

It's my speculation that could explain why the Bayesian captain acted the way that he did rather than anything reported in the news. The only specific injury that I'm aware of is AB, who ended up in wheelchair due to being injured from broken glass.

A couple of articles I’m putting here - the first mentions a foot injury of one crew and the other mentions the captain was limping from a leg injury.

Sicily yacht sinking: body found confirmed to be chef Recaldo Thomas as missing passengers feared dead – as it happened

Thomas was one of ten crew members onboard Bayesian yacht, says Italian coastguard, as passengers including tech tycoon Mike Lynch remain missing

www.theguardian.com

MSN

 

[ch_13]

That crazy downburst we've already confirmed with data had to have come from a thunderstorm. And while downbursts are hard to predict, a severe thunderstorm can be predicted. IMO.

rsbm.

I do think there's a difference between how one might prepare for a severe thunderstorm compared to a more extreme weather event. To use an analogy, it's the difference between a homeowner bringing the patio furniture inside vs. sheltering in the basement.

The questions to me are:
1 - Did the captain and crew follow the boat's standard operating procedure based on what they knew at the time about the weather?
2 - Was the ship built to handle the type of weather event that it experienced?

My initial thought was that someone on the crew had screwed up and perhaps left a hatch open. But after reading more about how the boat's downflooding angle was only 45 degrees when the vents were open, then I am leaning more towards a design flaw that only became apparent when the boat was hit by the downburst. At which time everything happened so suddenly there wasn't anything more the crew could do to save the vessel.

I do wonder if there was a conflict between the boat's lineage as a racing vessel and its function as a super-yacht. What sort of trade-offs did the designers have to make to fit in the systems that a luxury vessel requires? And did they fully understand how those choices may have compromised the ship's stability?