Italy - Sailing yacht sank off Italian coast, 15 rescued, 7 missing, 19 August 2024

[SpanishInquisition]

I’ve seen a few mentions of a concussion but I can’t find anything about that it - do you have a source? Thank you

It's my speculation that could explain why the Bayesian captain acted the way that he did rather than anything reported in the news. The only specific injury that I'm aware of is AB, who ended up in wheelchair due to being injured from broken glass.

 

[RedHaus]

3.50am OOW - "Captain, sorry to wake you but she's dragging her anchor."

Captain - "OK, lower the keel, start the engine and steer her into the wind. I'll be up in a minute"

If it had played out like that I suspect we'd all be totally unware that Mike Lynch's family owned a yacht called Bayesian.

RSBM
@Yellowbelly, not to make light of the situation, but you surely have a knack for calling attention to the crux of the matter. I could not agree more with your 'wish' as to how it could have played out.

 

[RedHaus]

No problem. I was pointing out that it is a safe heel. No matter if the boat is stationary or under sail. At 20/25/30 degrees the boat is not going to capsize. Boats regularly sit out at moorings, unattended, and get (safely) blown around.

I don't think that the yacht owner would have hired an inexperienced crew. And if she did, she is going to pay lots of dollars for that. Let alone the cost in human lives.

imo

No worries. I do think it's all about context. But we can agree to disagree.

That said I REALLY want to find historical weather radar data for that location 19-8 12:00am to 03:50am given the yacht's builder claims there was obvious reason for the crew to be concerned. I am sure investigators have that in hand by now.

That is my sleuthing mission for today.

That crazy downburst we've already confirmed with data had to have come from a thunderstorm. And while downbursts are hard to predict, a severe thunderstorm can be predicted. IMO.

 

[RedHaus]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1829824202204955031

Thanks, @Dotta. I found these nuggets:

"...Among theories being investigated are whether proper procedures were carried out by the drew to secure the yacht ahead of the storm which had been forecast and which had stopped trawlers heading out to sea.... There will also be focus on the keel of Bayesian which should have been deployed to its maximum length to help stability in and weather..."

p.s. good 'ol DM and their shoddy editing!

 

[Dotta]

Thanks, @Dotta. I found these nuggets:

"...Among theories being investigated are whether proper procedures were carried out by the drew to secure the yacht ahead of the storm which had been forecast and which had stopped trawlers heading out to sea.... There will also be focus on the keel of Bayesian which should have been deployed to its maximum length to help stability in and weather..."

p.s. good 'ol DM and their shoddy editing!

I think "good'ol" DM should have taken a peek into our discussion on WS
as we have pointed out ALL these issues here

Oh well...

For all WS Sailors

On the Sea...
In search of myself...

On the Sea...
I'm free
This is where I want to be ...

 

[ItalyReader]

It's my speculation that could explain why the Bayesian captain acted the way that he did rather than anything reported in the news. The only specific injury that I'm aware of is AB, who ended up in wheelchair due to being injured from broken glass.

A couple of articles I’m putting here - the first mentions a foot injury of one crew and the other mentions the captain was limping from a leg injury.

Sicily yacht sinking: body found confirmed to be chef Recaldo Thomas as missing passengers feared dead – as it happened

Thomas was one of ten crew members onboard Bayesian yacht, says Italian coastguard, as passengers including tech tycoon Mike Lynch remain missing

www.theguardian.com

MSN

 

[ch_13]

That crazy downburst we've already confirmed with data had to have come from a thunderstorm. And while downbursts are hard to predict, a severe thunderstorm can be predicted. IMO.

rsbm.

I do think there's a difference between how one might prepare for a severe thunderstorm compared to a more extreme weather event. To use an analogy, it's the difference between a homeowner bringing the patio furniture inside vs. sheltering in the basement.

The questions to me are:
1 - Did the captain and crew follow the boat's standard operating procedure based on what they knew at the time about the weather?
2 - Was the ship built to handle the type of weather event that it experienced?

My initial thought was that someone on the crew had screwed up and perhaps left a hatch open. But after reading more about how the boat's downflooding angle was only 45 degrees when the vents were open, then I am leaning more towards a design flaw that only became apparent when the boat was hit by the downburst. At which time everything happened so suddenly there wasn't anything more the crew could do to save the vessel.

I do wonder if there was a conflict between the boat's lineage as a racing vessel and its function as a super-yacht. What sort of trade-offs did the designers have to make to fit in the systems that a luxury vessel requires? And did they fully understand how those choices may have compromised the ship's stability?

 

[SpanishInquisition]

As I explained earlier, boats do not sit at anchor at their moorings (unattended) and simply stay still. They are buffeted around during storms, They heel way over. They do circles around their anchors. They still do not capsize.

There is a safe heeling range, because the boats are almost constantly in the water. In all kinds of weather. Whether people are in them or not.
20 degrees likely sits around the middle of that safe heeling range.

Anyway, at this point, I will need to agree to disagree. I see what you are saying. I just don't think it is correct, is all.

imo

Like I said, I'm aware of that. 20 degrees is not in the safe heeling range of the Bayesian for the weather conditions it was in. It should have been at like 10 degrees:
Operation of the vessel in cyclonic conditions particularly in the hours of darkness, where severe squalls are imminent, requires the recommended maximum steady heel angle to be reduced depending on the mean apparent wind speed in accordance with the curves presented below.
Example A) The Yacht is reaching, with a steady apparent wind speed of 15.3 knots. The mean heel angle is about 20 degrees. Forecasts and visible cumulo-nimbus clouds suggest squalls may be imminent. By plotting the heel angle and wind speed (point A on plot above) the indication is that the vessel will be in danger of heeling to the down flooding angle in squall of 30 knots. In order to increase safety from down flooding, say, to withstand squalls up to 40 knots, sails should be handed or reefed to reduce the mean heel angle to 11.5 degrees (point A1 on plot above) or less.

Exclusive: Loose Cannon Obtains Official Bayesian Stability Document

'Notes to Master' Reproduced Here Without Comment

loosecannon.substack.com

Reading the stability book is why I think in part there were design flaws. This vessel shouldn't have been rated as an Ocean Unlimited given how vulnerable it was to weather, like I agree with you in that for the vessel it was that 20 degrees should have been safe but that's not how the Bayesian was designed. Lots of the vessel's design seems to make it something other than a truly seaworthy oceangoing vessel, so a momentary mistake by the crew in bad weather can be fatal when other vessels would be just fine...a few minutes at 20 degrees heel in cyclonic weather and you're dead, which it shouldn't be that way in a well-designed oceangoing vessel.

 

[Dotta]

Safety at sea depends on several factors:

- the structure and condition of the ship,

- the skills and experience of the crew,

- the ability to anticipate and respond to changing weather conditions.

These are ABC of sailing.
Some things NEVER change.

Nature does NOT forgive mistakes.
Both the rich and the poor pay for them with their lives.

JMO

 

[ItalyReader]

Like I said, I'm aware of that. 20 degrees is not in the safe heeling range of the Bayesian for the weather conditions it was in. It should have been at like 10 degrees:
Operation of the vessel in cyclonic conditions particularly in the hours of darkness, where severe squalls are imminent, requires the recommended maximum steady heel angle to be reduced depending on the mean apparent wind speed in accordance with the curves presented below.
Example A) The Yacht is reaching, with a steady apparent wind speed of 15.3 knots. The mean heel angle is about 20 degrees. Forecasts and visible cumulo-nimbus clouds suggest squalls may be imminent. By plotting the heel angle and wind speed (point A on plot above) the indication is that the vessel will be in danger of heeling to the down flooding angle in squall of 30 knots. In order to increase safety from down flooding, say, to withstand squalls up to 40 knots, sails should be handed or reefed to reduce the mean heel angle to 11.5 degrees (point A1 on plot above) or less.

Exclusive: Loose Cannon Obtains Official Bayesian Stability Document

'Notes to Master' Reproduced Here Without Comment

loosecannon.substack.com

Reading the stability book is why I think in part there were design flaws. This vessel shouldn't have been rated as an Ocean Unlimited given how vulnerable it was to weather, like I agree with you in that for the vessel it was that 20 degrees should have been safe but that's not how the Bayesian was designed. Lots of the vessel's design seems to make it something other than a truly seaworthy oceangoing vessel, so a momentary mistake by the crew in bad weather can be fatal when other vessels would be just fine...a few minutes at 20 degrees heel in cyclonic weather and you're dead, which it shouldn't be that way in a well-designed oceangoing vessel.

This substack doc is fantastic.
In browsing quickly, this line jumped out at me:
"The Master should note that the presence of the vent and skylights significantly reduces the ability of the vessel to withstand down flooding and with these openings securely closed the safety of the vessel is enhanced considerably."

 

[al66pine]

Much of this info below about training & classification is new to me.
My Q's are below.

TRAINING
"Two levels of qualification...
" ... professional yachting courses such as Master of Yachts (MOY) and STCW, Basic Safety Training.
"Level 1..."
"Superyacht Deck Crew (includes Small Powerboat & RIB Master and VHF)
"Superyacht Interior Crew"
"Level 2
"Master of Yacht Training (MOY) – Mate 200 Ton/Coastal, Master of Yacht 200 Ton Limited and Master of Yacht 200 Ton Unlimited
STCW ‘95 Basic Training – (Standard of Training and Certification for Watchkeepers) 5 Modules over 6 days – required by the IMO (International Maritime Organisation) for employment on commercially operated yachts carrying passengers.
^ International Yacht Training Worldwide - Wikipedia

Also
"International Convention on Standards of Training, Certification and Watchkeeping for Seafarers (STCW) sets minimum qualification standards for masters, officers and watch personnel on seagoing merchant ships and large yachts.[2]"
^ STCW Convention - Wikipedia

Q 1. Is it likely or virtually certain that the Bayesian crew members would have had this training & met the certifications like above? Or other training & certs?


Q2. Someone (sorry, I can't find post atm) mentioned "OCEAN UNLIMITED" (I think referring to a yacht rating). Is there a link w further description handy?
For others, FWIW, wiki article on superyacht:
Superyacht - Wikipedia

Thanking all the posters for enlightening others in this thread w their sailing knowledge & experience. Much appreciated.

 

[ch_13]

This substack doc is fantastic.
In browsing quickly, this line jumped out at me:
"The Master should note that the presence of the vent and skylights significantly reduces the ability of the vessel to withstand down flooding and with these openings securely closed the safety of the vessel is enhanced considerably."

According to the posting from the previous captain, the vents had to remain open in order to use the generator and HVAC system. It just isn't realistic to expect the passengers on a multi-million dollar luxury yacht to sit around sweltering in the dark every time there's a bad storm.