ACTIVE SEARCH JAPAN - Patricia "Pattie" Wu-Murad, 60, US Citizen, on hiking trip Kumano Kodo Trail, didn't arr next stop Osaka, 10 Apr 2023

[slowpoke]

Thanks. It seems then, if she got lost, she would have had the ability to call or text for help.

The vision of Patti, wandering lost and confused for days in the woods, only applies if she had no cellphone coverage, or if she had chosen to go on a pilgrimage without cell capability.

It occurs to me, even if one arrives in Japan with only a wifi-enabled phone, one would normally buy cell access after arriving. Even if it's only kept for an emergency, it's the smart thing to do.

JMO

One of the updates (G F M) had said Pattie used an eSIM in Japan. She had 2 GB data remaining. She apparently used Meta (Facebook) and Whatsapp, as it mentioned trying to see what info they can get from them.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

I find it hard to believe Pattie would have gone on such a long and solitary journey without a way to call for help if the need arose. But of course the flip-side is that if she did have a way to call for help, she apparently never did.

IMO that suggests whatever happened was either very sudden and incapacitating, or at best caused her to be separated from her equipment.

 

[ZaZara]

I find it hard to believe Pattie would have gone on such a long and solitary journey without a way to call for help if the need arose. But of course the flip-side is that if she did have a way to call for help, she apparently never did.

IMO that suggests whatever happened was either very sudden and incapacitating, or at best caused her to be separated from her equipment.

Agree, and I would like to add:

If Pattie was separated from her equipment (backpack!) this doubles the chance of finding at least something. Yet sofar nothing has been found.

If whatever happened was very sudden and incapacitating, for instance a medical problem, Pattie would have been on or near the trail. But she wasn't found there.

IMO either she fell into the river, causing the phone to die immediately. Or something happened on the road and Pattie and her backpack were bundled into the back of a car.

The movements of the phone may indicate a lot. When did it stop connecting to the network? How did it move through the area? Walking speed? Driving speed? What direction?

 

[slowpoke]

Whatever has happened to Pattie, maybe I shouldn’t be saying this—it just doesn’t seem like she is among the living anymore, which makes me very sad for her, and for her family and those who knew and loved her. I hope we have a miracle here. Regardless, she needs to be found, of course.

It can be very difficult to find someone incapacitated in a forest, especially if there is underbrush. MOO. Even in a desert setting, finding someone can be hard, which I thought would be ‘easier’. I am reminded of the case of a woman lost at the Mojave National Preserve (desert) in California, and despite extensive searches around the last known location, she wasn’t found by searchers. It was only after something like a year and a half later that a couple of hikers happened upon her body.

MOO

 

[Cedars]

The movements of the phone may indicate a lot. When did it stop connecting to the network? How did it move through the area? Walking speed? Driving speed? What direction?

That would be great info, but it's possible she may have put her phone on airplane mode to save battery life for the long day/many photos ahead.

JMO

 

[Cedars]

It can be very difficult to find someone incapacitated in a forest, especially if there is underbrush. MOO. Even in a desert setting, finding someone can be hard, which I thought would be ‘easier’. I am reminded of the case of a woman lost at the Mojave National Preserve (desert) in California, and despite extensive searches around the last known location, she wasn’t found by searchers. It was only after something like a year and a half later that a couple of hikers happened upon her body.

MOO

I agree, the probability of survival is getting low, because of lack of food. I think SAR teams would be best able to assess the survivability factors.

I think searching for a living person, vs searching for remains, are two very different things. When SAR teams look for a living person, they try to cover a lot of territory quickly, make lots of noise, and keep heads up, eyes open for distant movement and listening for calls for help.

As a result, they sometimes walk quite near to remains hidden by bushes, etc.

But they are looking to rescue someone alive, and from my observation, rarely commit much time and effort to finding remains unless they have narrowed down a very small area to look in, like the size of a city park.

JMO

 

[neesaki]

Whatever has happened to Pattie, maybe I shouldn’t be saying this—it just doesn’t seem like she is among the living anymore, which makes me very sad for her, and for her family and those who knew and loved her. I hope we have a miracle here. Regardless, she needs to be found, of course.

It can be very difficult to find someone incapacitated in a forest, especially if there is underbrush. MOO. Even in a desert setting, finding someone can be hard, which I thought would be ‘easier’. I am reminded of the case of a woman lost at the Mojave National Preserve (desert) in California, and despite extensive searches around the last known location, she wasn’t found by searchers. It was only after something like a year and a half later that a couple of hikers happened upon her body.

MOO

As you, I hate to say it, but I can’t help but think back to of all the ”selfie” accidents we’ve read about the last few years. Some resulting in fatalities. Standing on the edge of a cliff, etc.

If she had taken photos, would they not be saved in the Cloud? I can’t recall if the family has addressed this or not.

ETA: I don’t mean to imply she would do anything necessarily high risk just for a selfie . Just that some parts of the trail are naturally hazardous, and taking a selfie could possibly increase the risk of an accident.

 

[slowpoke]

I agree, the probability of survival is getting low, because of lack of food. I think SAR teams would be best able to assess the survivability factors.

I think searching for a living person, vs searching for remains, are two very different things. When SAR teams look for a living person, they try to cover a lot of territory quickly, make lots of noise, and keep heads up, eyes open for distant movement and listening for calls for help.

As a result, they sometimes walk quite near to remains hidden by bushes, etc.

But they are looking to rescue someone alive, and from my observation, rarely commit much time and effort to finding remains unless they have narrowed down a very small area to look in, like the size of a city park.

JMO

In the 4/28 update, they did say the SAR group Mountain Works brought two dogs trained to detect human remains.

And at this link, it says Pattie’s husband said, “Police are combing the area with a helicopter and taking video that will be scanned to determine if there are any unnatural colors, which would indicate his wife is still in the valley”
Family 'desperate but holding out hope' as search continues for Storrs woman missing in Japan

Pattie had on a pink jacket, an orange waist pack, and a yellow backpack—bright colors! It should have helped with detection. Yet, nothing. And it is assumed the dogs detected nothing, either.

Sigh.

 

[ZaZara]

IMO Pattie did not disappear into the forest at all. If she had, she would have been found by now.

Because, in case of
- medical emergency: she would still be on the trail
- a simple fall downhill: Pattie has her phone and can call for help
- a more complicated fall: Pattie loses consciousness, can no longer move etc: can call for help when she regains consciousness / cannot move very far from the trail
- gets lost for whatever reason: can call for help. no need to roam for miles and miles.

It is very unlikely that Pattie all of a sudden would become dazed, confused and disoriented and out of the blue saw no other option than to disappear further and further into the woods.

She isn't running in the tropics, she is walking at a normal pace, it is early spring in Japan, chances of dehydration are low. If she took medication (unsure), we have not heard that it would have bad side effects or problems with withdrawal in case she had forgotten to take it. Problems with her sense of orientation have not been mentioned.
The option of dazed, confused and disoriented, while not 100% impossible, is very unlikely.

So, I'm being contrarian today and I don't believe Pattie is in the forest.

IMO again, there remain three areas of interest:

- the guesthouse and its surroundings
- the river
- the roads and various crossings

Phone data can shed light on what happened, especially the WHERE and WHEN. It is extremely important that these become available soon for the investigation and the search. I have no idea how this works in Japan, but from another case that I follow (outside WS) I learned that this is unbelievably difficult. The Murad family appeared to have good contacts with local LE, hopefully this helps.

 

[ZaZara]

Help Find Pattie on twitter and FB:

Today marks a full month since Pattie went missing. No clues, no leads, no trace, and still, no Pattie. Heartbreaking isn't enough to describe how my brother, @CoachKirkMurad & kids are feeling. Let alone the rest of us. Thanks for sticking with us while we #helpfindpattie

 

[StillDiggin]

Update from daughter Murphy Help Find Pattie FB group.
1 month into this nightmare.


After all the search efforts by several members of Mountain Works, 21 US volunteers led by multiple SAR experts, a private team of 4 highly experienced SAR specialists, and what locals say is the largest police search for a missing person case in the region, we can’t help but to circle back to the possibility that Pattie is the victim of a crime.

We were told there are no suspects but we’re also told there’s no evidence or clues of Pattie ever being on the trail. Both are equal possibilities until this mystery is solved.

We are still working with the FBI to collect cell phone data and last known location. We have members of previous SAR teams working remote to find more resources that could be used to aid in our search efforts. The family is considering sending another SAR team from the US because of the loss in momentum ever since we decided to leave. Drone footage that was previously collected is still being processed to detect colors my mom was last seen wearing. We are doing everything we can. We are still looking for answers

 

[annpats]

Update from daughter Murphy Help Find Pattie FB group, 1 month into this nightmare. "We are still working with the FBI to collect cell phone data and last known location."

I really do think phone data will be the only way to narrow down what happened.
It should, in theory, give us location and also speed of her last movements...a quick fall, normal walking, etc. Also hopefully how full the battery was.
It can also tell us whether the phone was switched off naturally or powered down due to lack of battery charge.

I hope this information won't take long. But, if it has to go through Apple, I fear it might take months.

 

[StillDiggin]

could not agree more, how Important the cell data is going to be in finding Pattie. Having walking pilgrimages myself I do like to set off for days walk with a fully charged phone as there’s opportunity to charge phone in the accomadation. Phone obviously act a camera, maps, music etc. Some people like to be away from technology on pilgrimages so these people may have the phones always switched off and there for back up & the odd text.
It’s Kirk’s (Patties husband) birthday today. Happy birthday Kirk. What a birthday gift it would be if there was at least some news.

 

[ZaZara]

Murphy Murad on Instagram:

Story finally broadcasted on NHK Japan. Please keep spreading the word #helpfindpattie​

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CsJcZ5MM1vY/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

Video of the broadcast at link.

Murphy Murad on Help Find Pattie on FB:

Story broke on NHK Japan, their largest news media. Thank you to all our HFP share everywhere Team that reached out to them. It worked! This is mostly in Japanese, but it looks like a good story with interviews from the helicopter folks, the inn keeper and search team along with Kirk speaking in English. If anyone can translate with English subtitles it would be greatly appreciated. Hopefully it will produce some leads to #helpfindpattie

 

[Cryptic]

As you, I hate to say it, but I can’t help but think back to of all the ”selfie” accidents we’ve read about the last few years. Some resulting in fatalities. Standing on the edge of a cliff, etc.

Though very plausible in regards to Patricia, I think a good majority of those types of accidents involve people pushing the limits for an "extreme" selfie.

If so, I cant see Patricia attempting a "how close can I get to the edge? Now I have the best angle" type selfie.

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

Murphy Murad on Instagram:

Story finally broadcasted on NHK Japan. Please keep spreading the word #helpfindpattie​

https://www.instagram.com/reel/CsJcZ5MM1vY/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

Video of the broadcast at link.

Murphy Murad on Help Find Pattie on FB:

Story broke on NHK Japan, their largest news media. Thank you to all our HFP share everywhere Team that reached out to them. It worked! This is mostly in Japanese, but it looks like a good story with interviews from the helicopter folks, the inn keeper and search team along with Kirk speaking in English. If anyone can translate with English subtitles it would be greatly appreciated. Hopefully it will produce some leads to #helpfindpattie

The Japanese news story has really good footage of the trail and surrounding area. It drives home the point that no matter how good the SAR teams are, this kind of terrain is insanely difficult to search and has a million and one places where something could be hidden.

Due to CCTV towards the end of the trail we can be fairly sure that Pattie never made it that far, but that still leaves miles of forest and wilderness. I'd guess if you asked a SAR team to name the worst kind of terrain for searching, somewhere like this would be near the top of the list.

 

[slowpoke]

Kirk Murad in the NHK video: “I don’t foresee a future without her. I need her in my life.” He looks and sounds so heartbroken, ready to cry.

Makes me cry, too.

 

[kittythehare]

have all the local spiritual groups, temples been contacted and asked to help?

 

[slowpoke]

Pattie did a lot of things right, yet still went missing. She is said to be a planner, so she did her research of the trail ahead of time. We know where and when she was supposed to be next, as she had reserved a stay at another guesthouse. She wears bright colors, the better to see her. Purposely or not, she left an itinerary of the upcoming days at the last guesthouse she stayed. She carried a cell phone with an e-SIM for communications. We don’t know what kind of gear or supplies she carried in her backpack. Since it was supposed to be a day hike, does she carry items in there to help her survive in case she must stay out in the elements overnight?

I came across an interesting page (smoky mountains dot com) about survival in the wilderness. It gives data based on 100 people who survived being lost in the US and Canada wilds. Though the analysis was from only cases in that part of the world, there’s useful information that can apply for anywhere, I’m sure. A good read for those of us who enjoy hiking.

(Warning: there’s a couple of individuals that did things I found abominable, but I guess one never knows what one will do in a desperate situation).

Safe & Found

 

[annpats]

We don’t know what kind of gear or supplies she carried in her backpack. Since it was supposed to be a day hike, does she carry items in there to help her survive in case she must stay out in the elements overnight?

Good question.

Here is my question regarding her bag:

If she's just travelling the trail with clothes and items she needs just for her day hiking, where is her big backpack or luggage that she would need for her whole trip?
Did she leave that somewhere safe and planned to collect it before she returned to the USA?

Or is she just travelling very, very light with just 3 sets of clothing (wash, wear and spare) in her only backpack, the one she had with her?