ACTIVE SEARCH JAPAN - Patricia "Pattie" Wu-Murad, 60, US Citizen, on hiking trip Kumano Kodo Trail, didn't arr next stop Osaka, 10 Apr 2023

[slowpoke]

Good question.

Here is my question regarding her bag:

If she's just travelling the trail with clothes and items she needs just for her day hiking, where is her big backpack or luggage that she would need for her whole trip?
Did she leave that somewhere safe and planned to collect it before she returned to the USA?

Or is she just travelling very, very light with just 3 sets of clothing (wash, wear and spare) in her only backpack, the one she had with her?

I read there is luggage shuttles that can take your bags to the next accommodations. Maybe she used that service. But, yeah, another thing we don’t know.

Luggage Shuttle & Storage｜Tanabe City Kumano Tourism Bureau

 

[annpats]

I read there is luggage shuttles that can take your bags to the next accommodations. Maybe she used that service. But, yeah, another thing we don’t know.

Luggage Shuttle & Storage｜Tanabe City Kumano Tourism Bureau

It does say the luggage shuttle needs to be booked at least 10 days in advance.

As Pattie seemed to have a reasonably flexible itinerary (she did leave it behind) and may have chosen another side trail to do, we don't know - I'm not sure if Pattie would be able to pin-down her location per day for the whole duration at least 10 days in advance?

Even a backpack with just 3 days clothing in it can weigh 4kg-5kg (9-13 lbs) and that's without toiletries or a pair of spare shoes, and any extra items.

I think that would be a bit of an uncomfortable weight for a female of that age to carry, especially on a difficult semi-mountainous trail.

So, I don't know where her main luggage was, but I am curious about what she was hiking with in her bag.

And also where she may have left her main luggage if she wasn't hiking with it.

 

[ZaZara]

Murphy Murad on Twitter:

NHK interview with English subtitles #helpfindpattie

https://twitter.com/x/status/1657377291364605953

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

Pattie did a lot of things right, yet still went missing. She is said to be a planner, so she did her research of the trail ahead of time. We know where and when she was supposed to be next, as she had reserved a stay at another guesthouse. She wears bright colors, the better to see her. Purposely or not, she left an itinerary of the upcoming days at the last guesthouse she stayed. She carried a cell phone with an e-SIM for communications. We don’t know what kind of gear or supplies she carried in her backpack. Since it was supposed to be a day hike, does she carry items in there to help her survive in case she must stay out in the elements overnight?

I came across an interesting page (smoky mountains dot com) about survival in the wilderness. It gives data based on 100 people who survived being lost in the US and Canada wilds. Though the analysis was from only cases in that part of the world, there’s useful information that can apply for anywhere, I’m sure. A good read for those of us who enjoy hiking.

(Warning: there’s a couple of individuals that did things I found abominable, but I guess one never knows what one will do in a desperate situation).

Safe & Found

The stories you posted the link to are interesting, because the vast majority of people who got lost or fell tried to do one of two things: Get back up to higher ground, or go downhill to find water. If Pattie tried to make her way through the dense forest for any reason, she could be anywhere and spotting her would be almost impossible.

As far as we know, Pattie made no known attempts to call for help on her phone. So did she lose it? Did it get broken? was there no service in the area? Did it inexplicably have no charge? Was she injured or did she suffer a medical episode that immediately rendered her incapable of using it? Was a third party involved who took it?

If Pattie made no attempt to call for help there has to be a reason.

If Pattie fell near the trail, got injured, and tried to crawl somewhere, you'd expect her to leave any unnecessary belongings behind as most of the people in the stories did. But none of her belongings have been found. If she suffered a medical episode on the trail that left her incapacitated, you'd expect her to be found nearby. But she hasn't been.

Assuming a third party wasn't involved, and that Pattie didn't deliberately go missing, everything points to Pattie and all of her belongings being some distance from the trail. There are millions of places she could be hidden in that terrain, but no obvious explanation for how she would have ended up there.

 

[annpats]

Yes, the fact she didn't make any attempt to call for help in an area where there was cell service is a key thing.

If she wandered off into the forest to attend to a call of nature and got lost, at least after a few hours, why not try to use the phone to call for help?

Even if she didn't know for 100% there was cell service, if she was desperate for help, she'd have tried. Or at least tried to send a text message. She had an e-SIM and had access to a Japanese cell network. There was cell reception in the area.

She hasn't been found ON the trail, and if a medical episode was that quick, severe catastrophic she would have been ON the trail. But she wasn't.

So, then, maybe then she had a slow medical episode? But she didn't use her cell phone to call anyone. And why didn't she stay on the trail, knowing help (other hikers) could possibly come by?

Mwybe omething happened where she couldn't use her phone.
Maybe she lost use of her hands or arms? Maybe the phone accidentally got wet? (Perhaps her drink leaked over it).

But what were the chances of that happening AFTER she left the trail?

It's such a curious case.

 

[imstilla.grandma]

"We can’t help but to circle back to the possibility that Pattie is the victim of a crime," the family wrote in a May 10 update on a page that has raised more than $190,000 for the search. To date, an extensive search by several rescue teams has failed to yield any clues.

"We were told there are no suspects, but we’re also told there’s no evidence or clues of Pattie ever being on the trail," the family wrote in the update. "Both are equal possibilities until this mystery is solved."

Wu-Murad was last seen checking out of a guesthouse in Osaka around 7 a.m. on April 10 and was reported missing to local authorities around 8:15 p.m. when she failed to check into a second guesthouse about 11 miles down the trail, according to the page. Her daughter, Murphy Murad, previously said she should have arrived within seven to 10 hours of starting out.

CT woman missing in Japan might be 'victim of a crime,' family says

Family members of Storrs resident Patricia Wu-Murad, who disappeared in Japan a month...

www.ctpost.com

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

And why didn't she stay on the trail, knowing help (other hikers) could possibly come by?

This is the thing that puzzles me the most. Theories about Pattie getting injured or sick don't really make sense because she was on a well-traveled trail where help could be expected relatively quickly. Going into the dense, mountainous forest would be more likely to end badly than staying where she was. It's not like when people get hurt hiking through the empty wilderness; the terrain surrounding the trail is treacherous, but the trail itself is a well-used route.

Of course Pattie could have gotten lost. But then we have to explain why she went off the trail, why she didn't call for help, and how far she could have gone to make SAR teams unable to locate her.

And then there's the fact that the Australian pilgrim and the trail runners say they never saw Pattie. They would have been expected to see her fairly early in the trek, but they didn't. We know she wasn't seen on the CCTV towards the end of the trail, but there's also nothing to prove she was ever on it. If Pattie did ever make it onto the trail, she seemingly wasn't on it just an hour or two later. That would mean something happened very soon after she set off.

But if Pattie never made it onto the trail, where did she go? There are other trails, but no sign of her has been found on those, either. It's like Pattie started walking along the road away from the guesthouse in the direction of the trailhead, and then disappeared into the mist.

 

[annpats]

This is the thing that puzzles me the most. Theories about Pattie getting injured or sick don't really make sense because she was on a well-traveled trail where help could be expected relatively quickly. Going into the dense, mountainous forest would be more likely to end badly than staying where she was. It's not like when people get hurt hiking through the empty wilderness; the terrain surrounding the trail is treacherous, but the trail itself is a well-used route.

Of course Pattie could have gotten lost. But then we have to explain why she went off the trail, why she didn't call for help, and how far she could have gone to make SAR teams unable to locate her.

And then there's the fact that the Australian pilgrim and the trail runners say they never saw Pattie. They would have been expected to see her fairly early in the trek, but they didn't. We know she wasn't seen on the CCTV towards the end of the trail, but there's also nothing to prove she was ever on it. If Pattie did ever make it onto the trail, she seemingly wasn't on it just an hour or two later. That would mean something happened very soon after she set off.

But if Pattie never made it onto the trail, where did she go? There are other trails, but no sign of her has been found on those, either. It's like Pattie started walking along the road away from the guesthouse in the direction of the trailhead, and then disappeared into the mist.

Great post. I don't know what else to say, apart from adding that the sniffer dogs didn't find any sign of her scent on the trail or leading off anywhere else....

I know sniffer dogs aren't infallible, but it's not like there are hundreds of people on that trail every day. There are just a handful of people. In fact, we know there were only 4 others after Pattie (the Australian hiker and then the 3 trail runners).
You just think the dogs would have detected something....

 

[acutename]

"We can’t help but to circle back to the possibility that Pattie is the victim of a crime," the family wrote in a May 10 update on a page that has raised more than $190,000 for the search. To date, an extensive search by several rescue teams has failed to yield any clues.

"We were told there are no suspects, but we’re also told there’s no evidence or clues of Pattie ever being on the trail," the family wrote in the update. "Both are equal possibilities until this mystery is solved."

Wu-Murad was last seen checking out of a guesthouse in Osaka around 7 a.m. on April 10 and was reported missing to local authorities around 8:15 p.m. when she failed to check into a second guesthouse about 11 miles down the trail, according to the page. Her daughter, Murphy Murad, previously said she should have arrived within seven to 10 hours of starting out.

CT woman missing in Japan might be 'victim of a crime,' family says

Family members of Storrs resident Patricia Wu-Murad, who disappeared in Japan a month...

www.ctpost.com

Great post. I don't know what else to say, apart from adding that the sniffer dogs didn't find any sign of her scent on the trail or leading off anywhere else....

I know sniffer dogs aren't infallible, but it's not like there are hundreds of people on that trail every day. There are just a handful of people. In fact, we know there were only 4 others after Pattie (the Australian hiker and then the 3 trail runners).
You just think the dogs would have detected something....

yes... she disappears ... and if you think anbout the possibility of some sort of crime, would it really leave a scene devoid of any trace of her? Was she tossed into a vehicle and driven away?

 

[KooshBall]

Great post. I don't know what else to say, apart from adding that the sniffer dogs didn't find any sign of her scent on the trail or leading off anywhere else....

I know sniffer dogs aren't infallible, but it's not like there are hundreds of people on that trail every day. There are just a handful of people. In fact, we know there were only 4 others after Pattie (the Australian hiker and then the 3 trail runners).
You just think the dogs would have detected something....

This is so creepy, imo. It's like she literally vanished into thin air.

 

[annpats]

yes... she disappears ... and if you think about the possibility of some sort of crime, would it really leave a scene devoid of any trace of her? Was she tossed into a vehicle and driven away?

Well, of course, it could be a possibility....but I think very unlikely.

But as you say, no trace, no signs of a struggle, nothing left behind......and what would be the motive?

Robbery? It's high-risk and a bit pointless to rob someone who is probably carrying a small amount of cash just to pay for the guesthouses and a few meals.

If it's bigger stuff, then no ransom demands have been made to her family.

Plus, if she were kidnapped, driven away, then killed....then what? Her body would still have to be dealt with.

Also, remember, only a small part of the trail is near a road for car access.

 

[acutename]

Well, of course, it could be a possibility....but I think very unlikely.

But as you say, no trace, no signs of a struggle, nothing left behind......and what would be the motive?

Robbery? It's high-risk and a bit pointless to rob someone who is probably carrying a small amount of cash just to pay for the guesthouses and a few meals.

If it's bigger stuff, then no ransom demands have been made to her family.

Plus, if she were kidnapped, driven away, then killed....then what? Her body would still have to be dealt with.

Also, remember, only a small part of the trail is near a road for car access.

I know- I tried to think unsentimentally about a crime: desperate person wants cash, phone, a few personal items- enough to murder some one and no trace of anything is left? More sinister- some one wants to kill or torture just because? And again, no trace left. It seems odd. Do the locals ride bikes or mopeds or any vehicles on the trails?

 

[annpats]

Do the locals ride bikes or mopeds or any vehicles on the trails?

It's a good question. Something like an e-scooter would work best - quick and silent.

I don't think there are any police or park rangers in these areas, so if a local did want to ride a bike, scooter or moped on the trail, it may cause a bit of local outrage, but I don't think there would be anyone to stop them.

I really am not in the 'foul play' category, but the more I analyse the lack of clues, lack of phone calls, lack of any evidence whatsoever, etc. the more I think that there could be a possibility, however small, of foul play.

Sometimes nothing else seems to make any sense.

 

[annpats]

A post from Pattie on a Shikoku 88 temples Facebook page from the 14th February this year (2023). She's asking about hiking footwear and mentions she's also planning on taking a 2nd pair of shoes with her. One poster said a spare pair wouldn't be necessary and the extra weight wouldn't be ideal.

 

[TravelingBug]

Good question.

Here is my question regarding her bag:

If she's just travelling the trail with clothes and items she needs just for her day hiking, where is her big backpack or luggage that she would need for her whole trip?
Did she leave that somewhere safe and planned to collect it before she returned to the USA?

Or is she just travelling very, very light with just 3 sets of clothing (wash, wear and spare) in her only backpack, the one she had with her?

Having a family member that's done a lot of thru-hikes of incredible distances and some crazy feats, and knowing she's in a foreign country and not somewhere it'd be as easy to sometimes mail things to another spot several weeks in or something if there's a big climate type change for the hike, I'd suspect she's carrying what she needs clothing wise and her overseas luggage was checked somewhere for her to collect later on.

Most thru-hikers carry essentially everything except all of their food and then sometimes will have a new pair of shoes, another layer of clothes, etc. sent to a spot that is reliable for hikers (there is a quite a network worldwide, really, for people doing hikes and people usually are very communicative as far as where there are known "trail angels" or places you can post things to and they'll be ok even if your arrival date is a guesstimate, etc.) and then some will mail stuff back home also while en route (sending home warm layers if they start somewhere colder and work into a warmer time of year or warmer hiking climate, etc.; sending rainy weather things back, whatnot)

Had Pattie apparently not communicated about losing her fleece, I'd actually have thought she probably may have left it to drop weight (a common thing when people get on a trail and discover they are carrying far more weight than is really practical/feasible/necessary or that they overpacked) they'll often leave things with known "trail angels" at waystations, etc. so if another hiker coming through can use it they can take it.

My family member who did a very long thru-hike that started in one country and finished in another and so that wasn't an option, and having been hiking for months at that point, wearing the same shirt the entire time (though they did have a long base layer they put on during snow a few times, but had long since ditched at the home of a trail angel due to not wanting even the few ounces of weight of that layer) it was in tatters. The international airline ::almost:: wouldn't let them on the flight because even showered (obviously) with months of facial hair growth and no way to cut their hair, plus the very torn up shirt and just small backpack he'd been toting for months they were skeptical if they were the person on the ID and someone who really setting off on an international flight

Somehow I suspect Pattie wasn't going to be in quite that position and that she had her other things stowed elsewhere for after her trek!

 

[Interested_But_Confused]

I've taken another good look at the maps of the Miura-toge Pass portion of the Kumano-Kodo trail, hoping to get a better idea not just of the terrain, but of how the terrain changes and also the amenities available along the route.

From the Mandokoro guesthouse to the trailhead is about 0.7km (0.45mi) travelling mostly along the Route 733 road. (Link) This is quite a narrow, winding mountain road, with a steep mountain side to the left and a steep drop down towards the Kanno River on the right. (Link) I've got to be honest, even this relatively short section of road looks pretty dangerous if a car came speeding around one of the corners.

You then go off the road at a point that appears to be marked for the Kumano-Kodo trail (Link), passing a number of houses towards the Kohechi Funawata Bridge which crosses the river. Google's images of the area were last updated in 2013, at which time there appeared to be a lot of building work going on around the bridge and the river. I'm not sure what it looks like now. (Link) This is as far as you can get on Google Maps because after that you're on the trail in the mountains and the forests.

According to the official trail website (Link) you quickly climb from 400m (1300ft) to 1100m (3600ft) over a distance of 4km (2.48mi) to reach the peak of the Miura-toge Pass. The route is rated 4.5 out of 5 because it's VERY difficult. Steep embankments, ravines, narrow paths, etc. At times you're almost rock climbing.

At 3km (1.86mi) into the hike there is the Sanju-cho water spring and other ancient remains and markers. It's possible that if you were to go off the trail for any reason, this would be where you'd do it. But it appears everything is marked so I'm not sure how you'd get lost.

The trail is about 18km (11.18mi) from Mandokoro to Pattie's next stop in Totsukawa. The peak of the Miura-toge Pass is only 4km (2.48mi) into the trail, although it's a very difficult hike to get there. At the peak is a toilet and a covered shelter, so the chance that Pattie had to step off the trail for a call of nature is perhaps not high, although still possible. At the peak there is also a forestry road which could potentially be used if you had reason to step away from the trail--or if somebody wanted to abduct you.

I won't go further at this point because TBH, I doubt Pattie even made it to the Pass. But the whole route to that point is just mountainous forest with a few streams. All sight-seeing spots are clearly marked. You could easily get lost if you went off the trail but I can't really understand why anyone would.

 

[acutename]

this is a really out there idea, but I was reading about trails....apparenly some of the shrines do not allow women:

Dorogawa Onsen TownscapeThe ryokan in Dorogawa have hosted people making the pilgrimage along the Omine-Okugake Trail for centuries.History & Culture Dorogawa Onsen
From Dorogawa Onsen, you can hike up Mt. Omine to resume the trail and continue south. Considered sacred, the mountain is home to Ohminesanji Temple. Shugendo practitioners come from far and wide to make pilgrimages here during summer. The path up the mountain and the temple are off-limits to women.

Could she have strayed into an "off limits" area? Since she was a planner and did a lot of research, I would think "no," but I am just searching for possibilities.

 

[neesaki]

This is so creepy, imo. It's like she literally vanished into thin air.

I know. It really is.

 

[neesaki]

A post from Pattie on a Shikoku 88 temples Facebook page from the 14th February this year (2023). She's asking about hiking footwear and mentions she's also planning on taking a 2nd pair of shoes with her. One poster said a spare pair wouldn't be necessary and the extra weight wouldn't be ideal.

View attachment 422154

I’d personally go with the spare pair of shoes. If nothing but some small light weight street shoes. Because we were backcountry camping, We hiked 10-12 miles in snow and rain, with 40+ pounds of gear. Yes, we were fit and also younger, But…. a pair of shoes isn’t much weight, and could be very valuable. What if your shoes got wet, as in drenched.
Best to be prepared, old Scout motto.

 

[slowpoke]

A post from Pattie on a Shikoku 88 temples Facebook page from the 14th February this year (2023). She's asking about hiking footwear and mentions she's also planning on taking a 2nd pair of shoes with her. One poster said a spare pair wouldn't be necessary and the extra weight wouldn't be ideal.

View attachment 422154

I don’t know how to bring a screenshot of Pattie’s post here, but on that same FB page under a discussion on phones, she wrote:

Patricia Wu-Murad
I’m going to try e-sim (probably Airalo) for my trip.

• 11w

When she says “going to try e-sim” it makes me think she hasn’t used it before. MOO. Just noting.