MA - Vanessa Marcotte, 27, murdered, Princeton, 7 Aug 2016 #7 *Arrest*

[Kickoff61]

Could he have built the fire ahead of time?

JMO, I don't think the fire was built ahead of time, increasing risk of attention. It appears it may have been a quick spontaneous decision to get rid of DNA he suddenly knew was left behind from the struggle. Again, just speculated opinion.

 

[Evey]

I am not sure I understand your post. Are you talking about the scene location?

Yes I mean if I'm running on that road and see a car with nobody in it I likely would cross the road to be careful. He could have left his vehicle on one side and hid on the other so she's distracted looking at the empty car as she crosses the road and then out of nowhere he jumps her. I feel any passing car would notice a vehicle there with it's hood up (if he wanted to fake a car issue) or someone standing outside it but if they saw an empty one the passing car may log it even less when driving by

 

[Evey]

JMO, I don't think the fire was built ahead of time, increasing risk of attention. It appears it may have been a quick spontaneous decision to get rid of DNA he suddenly knew was left behind from the struggle. Again, just speculated opinion.

Oh I fully agree I'm just thinking about the alternate possibilities but I think he had gasoline or something to easily start the fire and likely left once t looked good

 

[ForensicMass]

What if the "path" location was incidental?
If he knew the running route or saw her heading in that direction, he may have simply looked for the closest wooded location where he could pull over, which may have been at the path. If you're traveling north on BSR passing VMs house, the path, with the asphalt apron along the road, would be better than most spots to pull over given its RELATIVE seclusion to other spots along the route on BSR.

 

[Kickoff61]

Yes I mean if I'm running on that road and see a car with nobody in it I likely would cross the road to be careful. He could have left his vehicle on one side and hid on the other so she's distracted looking at the empty car as she crosses the road and then out of nowhere he jumps her. I feel any passing car would notice a vehicle there with it's hood up (if he wanted to fake a car issue) or someone standing outside it but if they saw an empty one the passing car may log it even less when driving by

Ok, I see what you mean. Yes, that is a good point too.

 

[Emb72]

What if the "path" location was incidental?
If he knew the running route or saw her heading in that direction, he may have simply looked for the closest wooded location where he could pull over, which may have been at the path. If you're traveling north on BSR passing VMs house, the path, with the asphalt apron along the road, would be better than most spots to pull over given its RELATIVE seclusion to other spots along the route on BSR.

I have thought that exact same thing. It's been said time and time again that it's someone that would have to know that trail. Maybe he isn't that familiar with the area, maybe that spot, that pull over area looked to be the best spot. Maybe he wanted to abduct and flee and things went not as planned. However LE does believe it's someone that knows the area as do I, just not sure how well..

 

[Rocky1]

Yes I mean if I'm running on that road and see a car with nobody in it I likely would cross the road to be careful. He could have left his vehicle on one side and hid on the other so she's distracted looking at the empty car as she crosses the road and then out of nowhere he jumps her. I feel any passing car would notice a vehicle there with it's hood up (if he wanted to fake a car issue) or someone standing outside it but if they saw an empty one the passing car may log it even less when driving by

I am thinking like you... she would have crossed the road if she saw a car parked.
Here's the thing. There really isn't a place to park near the path across the road without being part way in the road.
If she crossed the road, that means he would have had to cross the road, then drag her back across and into the path. He would have been seen for a long distance by a car passing, if he did that. It would have also increased the chance that VM would have seen him crossing to ambush her in her peripheral vision.
Combine that with Kickoffs post about why the SUV doesn't fit being parked there, to me, either there were two perps, (one got dropped off and waited for her) the SUV wasn't involved at all, or as kickoff said, he left on foot and came back and parked...another huge risk.
JMO, neither a torch was used, and after seeing how fast those running shoes burned, neither was an accelerant.

Edit:
Just to add. after seeing the black smoke from the running shoes burning, that explains the soot on those logs.

 

[ForensicMass]

I have thought that exact same thing. It's been said time and time again that it's someone that would have to know that trail. Maybe he isn't that familiar with the area, maybe that spot, that pull over area looked to be the best spot. Maybe he wanted to abduct and flee and things went not as planned. However LE does believe it's someone that knows the area as do I, just not sure how well..

I think we are on the same page. Law enforcement might have information to the contrary but I just don't see the certainty in the idea that the perp specifically knew about that path. If we recall, law-enforcement clarified in one of their more recent press conferences that the subject is believed to have been "familiar with the broad geographic area ". I do believe this is a semi-local individual living within perhaps 20 miles of the site however I am definitely not convinced that he knew of this specific path. I think it equally likely that the shoulder of the road in that area just proved to be The first "semi secluded "area that he came upon after driving past Vanessa.

 

[Kickoff61]

I think we are on the same page. Law enforcement might have information to the contrary but I just don't see the certainty in the idea that the perp specifically knew about that path. If we recall, law-enforcement clarified in one of their more recent press conferences that the subject is believed to have been "familiar with the broad geographic area ". I do believe this is a semi-local individual living within perhaps 20 miles of the site however I am definitely not convinced that he knew of this specific path. I think it equally likely that the shoulder of the road in that area just proved to be The first "semi secluded "area that he came upon after driving past Vanessa.

If he is not in the system and from out of town and outside of the immediate dragnet area, it would be highly unlikely to find him, contradicting with his desperate risk to do the fire which clearly appears as an attempt to get rid of the DNA after the struggle leaving his DNA behind.

 

[Kickoff61]

I think LE are right on target with their attempts to look within the area. Of course, they know far more from their investigation as well. Very little has been released.

 

[Kickoff61]

I am thinking like you... she would have crossed the road if she saw a car parked.
Here's the thing. There really isn't a place to park near the path across the road without being part way in the road.
If she crossed the road, that means he would have had to cross the road, then drag her back across and into the path. He would have been seen for a long distance by a car passing, if he did that. It would have also increased the chance that VM would have seen him crossing to ambush her in her peripheral vision.
Combine that with Kickoffs post about why the SUV doesn't fit being parked there, to me, either there were two perps, (one got dropped off and waited for her) the SUV wasn't involved at all, or as kickoff said, he left on foot and came back and parked...another huge risk.
JMO, neither a torch was used, and after seeing how fast those running shoes burned, neither was an accelerant.

Edit:
Just to add. after seeing the black smoke from the running shoes burning, that explains the soot on those logs.

I agree with you on this, as well as other options listed. But what do you mean by accelerant not used because of how fast the running shoes burned? Just curious, because I didn't get that part.

 

[Kickoff61]

Until more is released , I cannot fit in an SUV parked there from start to finish with all this. Part of the time possibly, but the timing of the path on her run combined with the timing of vehicle waiting and then being there while all this is done and the location of the guardrail and the driveway nearby on the map, etc, doesn't fit.

And a lot depends on what they may have found , her items or evidence away from the scene as to 'where' as well. There are so many scenarios. We already talked about an SUV possibly not getting into an area where evidence is found. (that would change matters) Then, if something was tossed on the side of the road from an SUV...why would he go through such risk to get rid of evidence with a fire, then toss something with his DNA on it close to the road (in the area), unless you are thinking he has gloves on?

 

[Rocky1]

I agree with you on this, as well as other options listed. But what do you mean by accelerant not used because of how fast the running shoes burned? Just curious, because I didn't get that part.

What I meant, is, if you go back and watch the video of the shoes burning, you can see how quick they ignite and how fast they go up in flames.
Just the wood alone, being so dry would have burned quick as well, if he started off with smaller branches, but the dark colored soot on the 4" logs had me wondering about an accelerant. After watching the dark soot with the running shoes burning, that explains it.

 

[Kickoff61]

What I meant, is, if you go back and watch the video of the shoes burning, you can see how quick they ignite and how fast they go up in flames.
Just the wood alone, being so dry would have burned quick as well, if he started off with smaller branches, but the dark colored soot on the 4" logs had me wondering about an accelerant. After watching the dark soot with the running shoes burning, that explains it.

Ok I see. You think there may not have been accelerant used, due to shoes causing the dark soot instead.

 

[Kickoff61]

Off topic question. Wondering what people think where his keys were, on hot summer day with summer clothing, if vehicle parked there the entire time?

 

[Kickoff61]

It also seems like someone out of town taking evidence with him, taking off, would take it out of town somewhere. Yet someone in town taking evidence would want to dispose of it quickly without bringing it home. JMO (*unless the person was keeping something for some kind of trophy as people mentioned).

 

[Joshua M]

I agree that it is unlikely his car was parked visibly out on the road for the entire time of the crime. If there is a car involved and it was parked on the road, I feel that he was either (a) dropped off and picked up later or (b) returned to the scene in his car post-crime - in my opinion this would only be if he accidentally left something very incriminating behind such as his wallet/other identification or alternatively to destroy DNA as he is a local or (c) less likelythat the vehicle was there from the start and...he tied her to a tree, and gagged her...and then moved the vehicle home or some other place less conspicuous and returned on foot/bike with a bag and torch to (possibly) rape and kill her.

 

[Joshua M]

Anyway, judging from the Marcotte family's press conference / statement just before Christmas...it does not appear as though an arrest is imminent or that law enforcement is even close to solving this crime. Just from the family's demeanour and their plea for more tips, it seemed clear that unfortunately this case is a long way from solved. (Assuming that law enforcement is keeping the family abreast of how the investigation is tracking).

 

[Emb72]

Off topic question. Wondering what people think where his keys were, on hot summer day with summer clothing, if vehicle parked there the entire time?

In a pair of shorts with pockets??

 

[ForensicMass]

In a pair of shorts with pockets??

Which is just about every pair of shorts ever made. Lol.